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Euractiv
2 days ago
- Business
- Euractiv
The Brief – 18 July: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Happy Friday and welcome back to GBU, where we look back on what should be (we hope) Brussels' last busy week before everyone in the vicinity of the Schuman roundabout logs off for the summer. Decide for yourself what's good, what's bad, and what's ugly. MFF MADNESS: After weeks of build-up, the European Commission's presentation of its 'most ambitious ever' seven-year EU budget proposal took ( messy ) centre stage on Wednesday. While no one really knows what it all means, and it's still subject to significant change as the real budget talks are only about to begin, it's provocative, and it surely gets people talking . It was my first MFF announcement day and a good chunk of it resembled mass confusion on all fronts, although one would think the Commission had enough time to plan everything surrounding that spectacular €2 trillion proposal drop to a T. The International Press Association seems to think so, too, accusing the Commission of breaching media agreements and deliberately keeping journalists in the dark in a press release sent earlier today. Anyway, we did follow the revolting commissioners, unhappy parliamentarians and more on our live blog and are keeping an eye on the budget aftermath. Spoiler: It is all 'bout the money, contrary to pop culture belief. Thomas Moller-Nielsen has a must-read budget breakdown , Sarantis Michalopoulos tells you why the new budget has a smoking problem and Jeremias Lin spoke to disgruntled farmers who are readying their pitchforks for a September return to Brussels after farm subsidies got slashed big time. TIT, TAT, TARIFFS: S omewhat in the shadows of the budget, the EU-US tariff bonanza kept going, too. Trade chief Šefčovič travelled to Washington again and briefed EU ministers on the outcome this afternoon. So, where do we stand? Some want peace, some want violence, seemingly. At least France wants Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen to get the "bazooka" – alias the EU's most powerful trade weapon, the anti-coercion instrument – out in response to Trump's tariff threats. Sun's out, guns out? Would that even be possible? Is that a good idea? I personally wouldn't trust my judgment on this, but Tom beautifully lays it all down here. TOUGH ON RUSSIA, ROUND 18: Today, EU member states agreed on a new wave of economic sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine – after Slovakia's Russia-friendly PM Robert Fico lifted his weeks-long veto. The new measures target Russian banks and lower a price cap on Russian oil exports in a bid to crush the country's war chest. GERMANY'S MIGRATION SUMMIT: Against an alpine backdrop, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt hosted France, Poland, Austria, Denmark, and Czechia as well as EU Home Affairs Commissioner Magnus Brunner atop Germany's highest mountain to talk migration on Friday. Berlin is talking the talk as it's getting tough on migration and walking the walk as the first deportation flight to Afghanistan under Merz took off early this morning. Read all about it here. STRANDED USAID CONDOMS IN BELGIUM: A total 26 million condoms, millions of contraceptive pills, thousands of implants, two million injectable doses, and 50,000 bottles of HIV prevention medication from the US development agency USAID are sitting – unused – in a warehouse in the north-east of Belgium and face possible destruction. That's a stockpile worth about €8.6 million, and destroying would cost Washington around €145,000. How did we get here? Thomas Mangin knows . In case you haven't had enough yet, here are a few weekend reads: Laurent Geslin looked at the latest of France's military disengagement from Africa . In Senegal, a remnant of French colonial presence came to an end on Thursday, with the French army officially handing over the keys of the Dakar-based Camp Geille – which has been occupied by French forces since 1960 – to Senegalese authorities. Inés Fernández-Pontes explained how Sanchez's domestic corruption pickle leads to the country pushing for its minority languages – Catalan, Galician, and Basque – to become EU official once again. Do you know what E3, E4, G5 and MED9 stand for? Fear not, this is not a quiz. Just read Nick Alipour's piece spoon-feeding you Europe's alphabet soup. … and in case you missed it, Brussels supermarkets will be allowed to stay open longer. Want to get The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in your inbox? Subscribe to The Brief (jp)
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First Post
2 days ago
- Business
- First Post
As hope of US trade deal glimmers, EU stalls investigation into breaches by Elon Musk's X
Brussels officials say politically charged decisions involving US firms are being handled cautiously, especially since the Trump administration has accused the EU of targeting American tech companies and infringing on freedom of speech read more The European Commission has delayed concluding a key investigation into Elon Musk's social media platform X over alleged violations of the bloc's digital transparency rules, as it navigates sensitive trade negotiations with the United States. The probe under the EU's Digital Services Act (DSA) was expected to wrap up before the summer recess, but three officials familiar with the matter said that would no longer happen. 'It's all tied up,' Financial Times cited one of the officials as saying, referring to the timing of the decision and ongoing EU-US trade discussions. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The DSA requires large online platforms to crack down on illegal content and increase transparency. Brussels launched multiple investigations into X for allegedly breaching the law, including deceptive design and failure to provide sufficient data access. If found guilty, the platform could face fines of up to 6 per cent of its annual global revenue, though penalties are expected to fall below that maximum. The commission, which leads EU trade policy, has been in talks with Washington since April after US President Donald Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on EU goods. Initially set at 20 per cent, the tariffs were reduced to 10 per cent to allow for negotiations, but Trump has since threatened to raise them to 30 per cent from 1 August. Amid the talks, Brussels officials say politically charged decisions involving US firms are being handled cautiously. The Trump administration has accused the EU of targeting American tech companies and infringing on freedom of speech. 'What happened was inexcusable and the consequences imposed for the failures so far do not reflect the severity of the situation,' Trump said, comparing the EU's regulatory actions to 'overseas extortion'. While Trump and Musk have fallen out this year after previously developing a political alliance ahead of the 2024 election, the US president has remained critical of EU enforcement measures against American tech giants. Despite that pressure, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has insisted the bloc will not change its digital rule book. In April, the EU fined Apple and Meta €700 million combined for breaching antitrust regulations under the Digital Markets Act. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Unlike the Digital Markets Act, the DSA has no fixed deadlines for completing investigations, giving the commission flexibility in announcing findings. Ongoing DSA investigations also include probes into Meta and TikTok over their content moderation policies. The commission stated that the 'proceedings against X under the DSA are ongoing', and added that the enforcement of 'our legislation is independent of the current ongoing negotiations'. It said it 'remains fully committed to the effective enforcement of digital legislation, including the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act'. Anna Cavazzini, a European Parliament lawmaker with the Greens, called on the commission to act swiftly. 'The commission must continue making changes to EU regulations an absolute red line in tariff negotiations with the US,' she said. Brussels is also examining X's content moderation practices, particularly after Musk hosted Alice Weidel of Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany party on the platform ahead of national elections. Additionally, there is growing pressure to investigate Musk's Grok chatbot after it reportedly generated antisemitic content. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD X has defended its record, stating that it disagreed 'with the commission's assessment of the comprehensive work we have done to comply with the Digital Services Act and the commission's interpretation of the Act's scope'.
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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
EU delays investigation into Musk's X amid trade negotiations with US
The European Commission has delayed one of its ongoing investigations into Elon Musk's social media platform X for violating digital transparency rules, The Financial Times reported on Thursday. The delay coincides with the EU's ongoing trade discussions with the United States. The Commission, which is responsible for overseeing trade on behalf of the European Union, will not meet the deadline to conclude the probe before its summer recess. A decision on the matter is now expected after greater clarity emerges from the EU-US trade negotiations. X in breach of EU's digital content rules Last year, EU technology regulators said that X had violated the Digital Services Act (DSA) — a regulation that compels major online platforms and search engines to take stronger action against illegal content and threats to public safety. Companies found in violation can face penalties of up to 6 per cent of their global turnover. Repeat offenders could potentially be banned from operating within the EU altogether. The probe into X followed a seven-month investigation that identified issues with the platform's use of the 'blue checkmark'. The Commission said X's approach 'deceives users' and is inconsistent with established industry practices. Investigation into X remains active The Commission stated that since anyone could subscribe to obtain a 'verified' status, it undermined users' ability to freely and accurately assess the authenticity of accounts and the content they engage with. It added that there was evidence of malicious actors deliberately misusing the 'verified account' status to mislead users. ByteDance's TikTok, AliExpress and Meta Platforms are also being investigated under the DSA framework. An EU spokesperson said that the investigation into X remains open, adding that the enforcement of the legislation is independent of the current ongoing negotiations. EU-US trade tensions The delay in the investigation comes as EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic prepares to meet with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer for high-stakes tariff discussions. US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 30 per cent tariff on EU imports starting August 1—a move the EU deems unacceptable and damaging to trade relations between two of the world's largest economies. The EU warned of countermeasures if no agreement is reached. Bracing for a breakdown in talks, the European Commission has prepared a retaliatory tariff package targeting $83.6 billion worth of US exports, including Boeing aircraft, bourbon whiskey, and automobiles.
RTÉ News
3 days ago
- Business
- RTÉ News
Bank of Ireland revises economic forecasts upwards
Bank of Ireland has revised upwards its economic forecasts for the year, if US tariffs remain at 10%. It predicts GDP growth of 8.5%, higher that the 3.5% growth previously forecast. The bank says modified domestic demand will grow to 2.9% (previously 2.8%) and employment will grow to 2.6% (1.8%) in 2025. There is one significant caveat; the forecasts assume US tariffs on Irish exports remain at 10%, with pharmaceuticals exempt. Bank of Ireland says any change to current US policy from August 1, or thereafter, would lead to a revision downwards for Irish GDP projections. It says its revisions reflect surging exports and multinational output, but also Ireland's rapid pace of job creation, consumer spending and public expenditure. The bank says investment spending is expected to bounce back in 2025, as a partial rebound in construction activity takes place. Bank of Ireland Chief Economist, Conall Mac Coille said, "The Irish economy has significantly outperformed expectations in the first half of 2025, prompting us to revise our GDP growth forecast to 8.1%, up from 3.5%. "This reflects an exceptional surge in multinational output and exports early in 2025, as well as strong momentum in consumer and public spending. Some of this growth reflects firms front-running expecting tariffs, but also new pharmaceutical production facilities coming online." Mr Mac Coille said the upwardly revised forecasts also reflect the strong performance of the domestic economy early this year. "We now expect Modified Domestic Demand to grow 2.9% in 2025. Revisions to CSO data show consumer spending growing at a substantially faster pace (3%) than first thought. Also, public spending in H1 2025 was up 8%, adding to demand. The 3.3% pace of job creation is also ahead of expectations. The big picture is that the economy has so far weathered the uncertainty posed by President Trump's tariffs and EU-US trade negotiations." The chief economist agrees that the outlook is especially uncertain currently. He said any escalation in tariffs above 10% would necessitate a downward revision. The report says Ireland's direct exposure to US tariffs is limited. Goods trade with the US accounted for 9% of Irish exports in 2024, of which three-quarters were pharmaceuticals. The report finds, however, that ongoing uncertainty could have a slow-burn negative impact on FDI. "Our Irish economic forecasts embody only a gradual pick-up in investment spending from current subdued levels," Mr Mac Coille said. "We are encouraged by the recent American Chamber of Commerce survey – indicating 60% of respondents still expected to expand employment." The fall in Irish housing completions to 30,300 in 2024 has been well flagged, but the bank's report raises the 5% contraction in non-residential construction, down for a 5th consecutive year, as a concern. It reflects the negative impact of build cost inflation, planning delays and other rigidities on the construction sector, holding back delivery of key infrastructure projects and the National Development Plan. The CSO estimated consumer spending grew by 3% in the year to Q1 2025. Bank of Ireland says credit-debit card spending in June was up 6% on the year. "Again, there is no sign of the fall in Irish consumer confidence to a 2-year low in April, affecting actual spending decisions," Mr Mac Coille said. "Hence, we are now forecasting a stronger pace of consumer spending growth in 2025, at 2.7%. Notably, Irish households continue to accumulate savings rapidly. Household deposits grew by 6.5% in the year to May to €165bn."
Irish Daily Mirror
3 days ago
- Business
- Irish Daily Mirror
Ireland's economy 'significantly' outperformed expectations for 2025
Ireland's economy has "significantly" outperformed expectations for 2025, as a GDP forecast has been modified to 8.1 per cent growth. Bank of Ireland's latest economic forecasts have been revised upwards for 2025, with GDP now at 8.1 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent previously. Modified domestic demand has been forecast at 2.9 per cent, compared to 2.8 per cent previously, and employment to 2.6 per cent growth (1.8 per cent previously). However, this forecast assumes that US tariffs on Irish exports remain at 10 per cent, with pharmaceuticals exempt. Any change to this from August 1 or after would lead to a revision downwards for Irish GDP projections. Bank of Ireland's Chief Economist Conall Mac Coille said the revised projections reflect an "exceptional surge in multinational output and exports early in 2025" as well as strong momentum in consumer and public spending. He added: "Our upwardly revised forecasts also reflect the strong performance of the domestic economy early in 2025. "Revisions to CSO data show consumer spending growing at a substantially faster pace (3 per cent) than first thought. The 3.3 per cent pace of job creation is also ahead of expectations. The big picture is that the economy has so far weathered the uncertainty posed by President Trump's tariffs and EU-US trade negotiations." However, Mr Mac Coille said the outlook is "especially uncertain currently" with looming tariffs. He continued: "Our forecasts assume US tariffs on Irish exports remain at 10 per cent, with pharmaceuticals exempt. "Any escalation would necessitate a downward revision. We are also concerned by growing evidence that bottlenecks and capacity pressures are not being addressed. The decline in housing completions in 2025 has been well flagged but the 5 per cent contraction in non-residential construction in 2024 (a 5th consecutive year of contraction) reflects further delays in the delivery of infrastructure and the NDP." However, Bank of Ireland has noted that tariff-related uncertainty has had little impact on the housing market. It is forecasting a 5 per cent house price inflation in 2025, the same as its previous prediction. Dublin is the least affordable city for homebuyers in Ireland (Image: Getty) In the first half of 2025, exports rose by 9.6 per cent, up 23 per cent on the year. The economic outlook report noted that this largely reflected firms front-running expected US tariffs. However, there was also a structural upward shift in exports, reflecting new pharmaceutical production facilities coming online and fresh investments in intellectual property assets. Job creation has beaten expectations, up 3.3 per cent on the year with an unemployment rate of 4 per cent in June. However, Bank of Ireland predicts "a gradual softening" of job creation to 2.6 per cent for all of 2025 and 1.4 per cent in 2026 due to US tariffs and an "uncertain global environment". This would raise the unemployment rate slightly to 4.4 per cent next year. Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest news from the Irish Mirror direct to your inbox: Sign up here.
