Latest news with #EVCM
Yahoo
18-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
EverCommerce Inc.'s (NASDAQ:EVCM) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 25% Above Its Share Price
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, EverCommerce fair value estimate is US$13.00 EverCommerce is estimated to be 20% undervalued based on current share price of US$10.36 Analyst price target for EVCM is US$11.77 which is 9.4% below our fair value estimate Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of EverCommerce Inc. (NASDAQ:EVCM) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$117.4m US$140.3m US$143.9m US$147.5m US$151.3m US$155.3m US$159.4m US$163.7m US$168.1m US$172.7m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x6 Analyst x1 Est @ 2.48% Est @ 2.56% Est @ 2.62% Est @ 2.66% Est @ 2.69% Est @ 2.71% Est @ 2.72% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.4% US$108 US$119 US$113 US$107 US$101 US$95.6 US$90.5 US$85.7 US$81.2 US$76.9 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$978m We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.4%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$173m× (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (8.4%– 2.8%) = US$3.1b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.1b÷ ( 1 + 8.4%)10= US$1.4b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.4b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$10.4, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at EverCommerce as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.310. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for EverCommerce Strength Debt is well covered by cash flow. Weakness Interest payments on debt are not well covered. Opportunity Expected to breakeven next year. Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows. Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%. Threat Revenue is forecast to decrease over the next 2 years. Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For EverCommerce, we've compiled three further elements you should further examine: Financial Health: Does EVCM have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk. Future Earnings: How does EVCM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
19-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine EverCommerce Inc. (NASDAQ:EVCM)?
While EverCommerce Inc. (NASDAQ:EVCM) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGS. While good news for shareholders, the company has traded much higher in the past year. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock's share price. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let's take a look at EverCommerce's outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. Great news for investors – EverCommerce is still trading at a fairly cheap price. According to our valuation, the intrinsic value for the stock is $13.94, but it is currently trading at US$9.96 on the share market, meaning that there is still an opportunity to buy now. What's more interesting is that, EverCommerce's share price is quite volatile, which gives us more chances to buy since the share price could sink lower (or rise higher) in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market. View our latest analysis for EverCommerce Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of EverCommerce, it is expected to deliver a relatively unexciting top-line growth of 6.7% in the next few years, which doesn't help build up its investment thesis. Growth doesn't appear to be a main reason for a buy decision for the company, at least in the near term. Are you a shareholder? Even though growth is relatively muted, since EVCM is currently undervalued, it may be a great time to increase your holdings in the stock. However, there are also other factors such as financial health to consider, which could explain the current undervaluation. Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping an eye on EVCM for a while, now might be the time to make a leap. Its future outlook isn't fully reflected in the current share price yet, which means it's not too late to buy EVCM. But before you make any investment decisions, consider other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to make a well-informed investment decision. Diving deeper into the forecasts for EverCommerce mentioned earlier will help you understand how analysts view the stock going forward. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here. If you are no longer interested in EverCommerce, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
