Latest news with #EVD
Forbes
31-03-2025
- Health
- Forbes
CDC Study Finds Deforestation Is A Leading Indicator Of Ebola Outbreaks
A general view of a deforested farm in Yanonge, 60 km from the town of Kisangani in Tshopo province, ... More northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, August 31, 2022. (Photo by Guerchom Ndebo / AFP) (Photo by GUERCHOM NDEBO/AFP via Getty Images) A new CDC-led study identifies deforestation as a leading indicator of Ebola virus spillover. Using machine learning and two decades of satellite data, researchers found that forest loss and fragmentation were among the strongest predictors of where the virus might jump from animals to humans. The model doesn't prove causation—but it does help identify environmental patterns that could guide preparedness in regions facing rising ecological pressure. Published in Emerging Infectious Diseases, the study analyzed 22 independent Ebola virus disease (EVD) index cases reported between 2001 and 2021. These were instances where the virus is believed to have first spilled over into a human host, excluding cases traced to latent infections or human-to-human transmission. The team then used high-resolution data on forest cover, precipitation, elevation, and human population density to train a predictive model of spillover potential. The model was tested to see how well it predicted two spillover events that occurred in 2022, the year following the last year of data used in the model. The model distinguished between spillover and non-spillover locations with roughly 90% accuracy, highlighting key environmental and demographic factors. Predicted risk is highly concentrated in the DRC, particularly in areas of recent forest loss. ... More Adapted from Telford et al. (2025). Among the model's most important predictors were forest loss and forest fragmentation, particularly when measured at small spatial scales. But what stood out was not just the strength of these variables, but their form. Spillover risk did not increase smoothly with forest loss. Instead, the model revealed threshold-like behavior, with risk remaining low until a tipping point in forest degradation was reached—at which point it rose sharply. These switch-like responses suggest that certain landscape changes may trigger spillover conditions rather than gradually increase them. Statistical results from Telford et al. (2025) suggest that forest fragmentation and forest loss ... More contribute to Ebola spillover risk. The abrupt changes in these "partial dependence plots" suggest that there may be ecological thresholds that should not be crossed to avoid spillover. Image modified from Telford et al. (2025) to highlight switch-like behavior. This pattern is consistent with ecological observations elsewhere. In Australia, for example, habitat loss and subsequent changes in bat behavior have been linked to increased viral shedding in bats infected with Hendra virus—possibly due to stress or crowding. In central Africa, forest loss may increase human–wildlife interactions by opening up remote areas to hunting, driving bats toward cultivated fruit crops, or expanding the reach of bushmeat markets. These dynamics increase the opportunities for a zoonotic virus to make the leap into humans. Importantly, the new study found that predicted spillover risk is not evenly distributed. Of all locations in the model's top percentile of relative risk, nearly 80% were located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Other high-risk zones appeared in Cameroon, Gabon, and the Republic of the Congo. From 2021 to 2022 alone, the model estimated that spillover risk increased in 25% of the study area, largely driven by ongoing forest degradation and population growth. According to Global Forest Watch, the DRC has lost almost 22,000 square miles of humid primary forest—an area slightly smaller than the entire state of West Virginia. While the DRC accounts for most of the predicted risk, it is not the only country where deforestation is intensifying the conditions linked to spillover. While the model is not intended to forecast outbreaks in real time, it does offer a way to prioritize long-term investments in surveillance, ecological monitoring, and public health preparedness. As the authors note, conducting active surveillance everywhere would be inefficient—but focusing efforts in areas where spillover potential is rising could help public health systems stay a step ahead of future emergence. This study adds to a growing body of research suggesting that spillover events are not random, but emerge from changing landscapes, shifting animal behavior, and evolving human-wildlife contact patterns. Understanding where and when ecological changes elevate spillover risk can inform more strategic public health planning—and support ecological countermeasures aimed at preventing pathogens from crossing into human populations.
The Independent
17-03-2025
- Health
- The Independent
Scientists may have finally developed pill to cure Ebola
Scientists have found that an oral antiviral drug successfully prevents monkeys from dying after an Ebola infection, an advance that may prevent future outbreaks of the deadly virus. The deadly Ebola virus is highly lethal to humans and nonhuman primates (NHPs) with death rates close to 90 per cent of infected individuals. For instance, the 2013–2016 West African Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic caused 11,325 deaths among 28,600 infected people while another outbreak between 2018 and 2020 in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Uganda killed 2299 individuals out of 3481 infection cases. While antibody-based treatments have shown some success in animal and human trials, the combination of cold-chain transport and storage requirements pose substantial challenges to contain outbreaks, researchers say. Thus, there is a need for developing oral pills that can be rapidly and widely deployed to save lives and contain the spread of the virus in resource-limited regions. 'Oral antivirals have several advantages over parenterally administered drugs, including potential to be easier to supply, store, distribute, and administer,' scientists explained. The drug Obeldesivir (ODV) was previously found to have broad activity across several RNA viruses – including the filovirus family to which Ebola belongs – when given 24 hours after exposure. However, in the previous research, scientists used intramuscular delivery of the virus into macaques, which causes a much faster disease course that makes it harder to track the drug's effect. In the latest study, published in the journal Science Advances, researchers found that ODV protects 100 per cent of rhesus macaques exposed to the highly potent Makona variant of Ebola virus via mucosal administration. Five rhesus and five crab-eating macaques received daily ODV for 10 days starting 24 hours post-exposure, while three monkeys served as controls. Scientists found that ODV provided 100 per cent protection against death for rhesus macaques and 80 per cent protection for the crab-eating monkeys. Since the disease progressed slower under the latest virus administration route, researchers could also explore ODV's mechanisms of action. They found that the treated monkeys had higher expression of proteins that support activation of the immune system's T cells. Monkeys provided ODV also appeared to have better anti-inflammatory action and dampening of any severe immune reaction. Overall, researchers say the results support the potential of ODV as an oral postexposure prophylaxis. 'These findings suggest that ODV treatment affords the opportunity for the development of adaptive immunity while mitigating excessive inflammation, potentially preventing fatal outcomes,' they wrote. Scientists hope to further understand how a delayed ODV treatment would affect immune responses. 'However, even if ODV is only effective when given between 24 hours after EBOV exposure and before the onset of illness, it may have utility in combating EBOV outbreaks and for subjects with known exposures to EBOV, including accidents in the clinic or laboratories,' they wrote.
Zawya
24-02-2025
- Health
- Zawya
Ministry of Health with Support from World Health Organization (WHO) reactivates the Infectious Disease Unit (IDU) In Nimule to enhance cross border public health security in South Sudan
To improve capacity for treatment of infectious diseases and mitigate the risk of cross-border disease transmission, the Ministry of Health, with support from the World Health Organization (WHO), has established and handed over an Infectious Diseases facility in the border of Nimule to the Magwi County Health Department. The new 15 bed capacity facility is designed to bolster the country's healthcare system by providing necessary resources and infrastructure to manage infectious diseases effectively and boosting infection prevention and control. South Sudan initiated the establishment of this facility in 2022, following the declaration of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in Uganda. This facility is a product of continued investments in capacity building for emergencies preparedness and response. With the current outbreak of Sudan Virus Disease outbreak in Uganda, this is the best time to functionalize this facility, given the epidemiological linkages of the two sisterly countries. This is in line with international health regulations (IHR (2005), which mandates countries to designate and strengthen capacities at points of entry to mitigate the risk of cross-border disease spread and preserve international public health security. South Sudan has heightened vigilance for Viral Haemorrhagic Fever, Mpox and Cholera at all levels. National readiness and response plans for the three diseases are being used to inform investment and operational decisions. Coordination of readiness investments have commenced using the multi-disease outbreak Incident Management System (IMS) currently managing Anthrax, Cholera and Mpox outbreaks. 'Our primary focus is to enhance surveillance efforts, which includes screening all travelers at major entry points with Uganda. screening has already started in several high-risk areas.' Said Dr Humphrey Karamagi, WHO Representative for South Sudan 'with support from WHO, a multidisciplinary team of public health experts is currently dispatched to Nimule, and Kajokeji to conduct risk assessment and define priorities for strengthening early detection, investigation, and response to Ebola Virus Disease. 'Our aim is to protect communities by preparing and responding timely to outbreaks and other public health threats and the establishment of the Infectious Disease Unit at the Nimule point of entry will help South Sudan to expand the response capacity to timely detect, assess, report and respond promptly and effectively to public health risks, said Dr Harriet Pasquale Akello, Undersecretary, Ministry of Health.' I am grateful and would like to extend my thanks to WHO and ECHO for the generous support' The 2024 Joint External Evaluation (JEE) of national capacities identified border health and Points of Entry as one of the weakest areas requiring improvement. In turn, the JEE recommended capacity assessments, contingency planning for port health services development including international travelers screening, information sharing and minimum care facilities for isolation/containment of suspected infectious diseases affected people. It is against these JEE recommendations that strengthening of IHR capacities for Juba International Airport (JIA) and other designated points of entry in Nimule and other border points is being prioritized. South Sudan has continually faced an increased risk of emerging diseases like Ebola virus, yellow fever, cholera, the ongoing COVID-19 and other diseases with a threat to international public health security due to cross-border diseases spread. WHO is working collaboratively with the Ministry of Health and other stakeholders to reduce their impact on health and wellbeing. The country however continues to remain vulnerable to future events. Distributed by APO Group on behalf of World Health Organization (WHO) - South Sudan.
