Latest news with #EconomicPolicyUncertaintyIndex
Economist
20-05-2025
- Business
- Economist
How data and intelligent applications will reshape business
Businesses have faced more instability in 2025 than in the last 25 years. While the pandemic challenged corporate leaders with supply chain slowdowns and rapidly changing consumer demand related to global lockdown, we're operating in an environment where age-old business rules and conventions are shifting beneath our feet. In fact, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index shows that since January, daily trade policy uncertainty has spiked to unprecedented levels globally. 1 At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) promises to be the most significant transformation in business software since the maturity of cloud computing over the last decade. But to fully take advantage of AI, business and technology leaders must address the data silos and complexity within their organisation. How can business leaders stay on top of—and even anticipate—the quickly shifting economic environment and ensure the success of their AI initiatives? The answer lies in creating a holistic data strategy that feeds relevant data into their AI landscape. The new data imperative Every organisation on a digital transformation journey needs to turn intelligence into action at scale. Gartner predicts that by 2028, over 50 percent of enterprises will adopt industry cloud platforms, integrating critical business processes to create a robust, flexible, and agile platform. 2 Chief information officers (CIOs) are already in the process of creating the technology infrastructure required to harness every signal from their business—and that of their extended ecosystem of partners and customers. But to drive reliable decision making and AI efforts, CIOs must harmonise that data into a single, unified and trusted layer. That's where SAP Business Data Cloud (BDC) comes in. This new software service integrates all of a company's most important information—both structured and unstructured no matter where it resides—ensuring that business context and data semantics are preserved and exposed as consumable primary data products reflecting the most critical business processes. BDC provides a fully governed and AI-ready foundation enabling businesses to expose the agility needed to navigate today's volatile landscape. Through a partnership with the Databricks platform, SAP BDC also offers seamless machine learning capabilities to data and AI professionals. The advent of intelligent applications A modern data platform like SAP BDC empowers enterprises to create and use intelligent applications. These can utilise a wide spectrum of SAP data products that promise to reshape how organisations operate—embedding real-time data and critical operational context within AI models to enable swift and insightful decisions. Unlike traditional software governed by rigid business rules, these modern applications can learn and adapt to rapidly evolving customer and market demands—detecting changes to optimise processes, anticipate needs, and collaborate with both human and artificial 'thinkers' to create competitive advantage for your organisation. Intelligent applications align with organisations' most important business functions such as human resources, finance and supply chain. For example, at SAP, People Intelligence is designed to provide HR and business leaders with AI-driven recommendations to optimise talent decisions, drive employee engagement and ensure compliance. At the same time, SAP is actively collaborating with leading partners to build the next wave of intelligent applications including Adobe, Thomson Reuters, Accenture and Moody's. By working together, SAP and its partners aim to enable organisations to navigate the complexities of today's business environment and become truly AI-ready. The future belongs to data-driven organisations SAP customers generate 84 percent of total global commerce and 98 of the 100 largest companies run on SAP systems. In other words, the vast majority of the most important business data powering the global economy runs through SAP software. This is a watershed moment, providing seamless access to information within SAP and non-SAP solutions. In a zero-sum game, only a robust data strategy will allow businesses to deftly navigate volatility, remain agile and keep their competitive edge. Learn more about SAP Business Data Cloud at
Business Insider
13-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
A financially independent trader who's returned 33% in 2025 says right now is a 'massive opportunity for investors'
As an options trader, Erik Smolinski thrives in chaotic markets. "In the options-trading world, what you need is not necessarily persistent, directional moves like most standard buy-and-hold portfolios might," he told Business Insider in May 2025. "What you need is volatility, which is what we've got in spades." Smolinski has been trading since 2007, when he was still in high school. He's only posted two negative years — his first two years — and has consistently beaten the S&P 500 ever since. Between 2018 and 2022, he returned 24.6% on average, which BI verified by looking at screenshots of his summary statements. The S&P 500 averaged nearly 12% over the same period. As of April 2025, he had returned 33% for the year and outperformed all but four years in his 18-year trading career. The S&P 500 fell 6% over the same timeframe in 2025. "This whole market has been such a joy to trade," he said. "Institutions don't know what's going on any better than retail traders because it's all a crap shoot. You don't know what's coming out on the next tweet or Truth Social. It is straight madness, but it is a trader's dream and a massive opportunity for investors because this kind of dislocation levels the playing field for everybody." By one measure, the economy has not been this unpredictable in many decades. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which tracks how frequently newspapers write about the economy, policy, and uncertainty, spiked in April to the highest level since recordkeeping began in 1985. Still, Smolinski hasn't made any drastic changes to his strategy in 2025. After all, he attributes his general success trading to having a detailed plan and sticking to it. "I don't chase topline performance. I wholly focus on process," he said. "That means that as I'm executing what I'm doing as a trader, there's no going off script and saying, 'Oh, I feel like this is going to happen, so I'm going to react this way.' I don't care how I feel. What I care about is what makes sense and sticking to that process." That doesn't mean he never shifts his strategy. He does weekly and monthly AARs — "after action reviews," a concept he picked up whiles serving in the Marine Corps — and uses that time to ask himself, "what's working?" and, "what's not working?" How the everyday investor can capitalize in 2025 Smolinski recognizes that, as an investor, he's more active than most. For the everyday investor looking to capitalize on what he believes to be a "massive opportunity," he first advises setting aside cash. This is separate from your emergency fund, which should be built out before you start investing, and specifically "to be able to gain exposure quickly to opportunities as they begin to hit prices that the investor likes," he said. Next, create a "watch list" of potential investments to jump on. If you're not sure where to start, ask yourself a few broad questions. For example, "Do you think technology is going to be bigger, more profitable, more dominant five years from now?" he said. "I feel pretty confident on the yes, personally. So, one of the simple things a retail trader could do is start at the very high level and start dollar cost averaging into QQQ, which is the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF. It's still bundled into an index ETF, it still keeps your money inherently diversified in one low-cost index fund, but it's a little bit concentrated into tech." Another broad category he considers is healthcare. "Think about what kind of impact something like AI can have in that sort of industry, everything from diagnostics to records-keeping to patient management," he said, adding that there are index ETFs that track the medical field. Those types of ETFs may go into your "core bucket" of investments, he said, which should be lower risk and focused on long-term growth. If you have extra money to invest, you can consider adding a "speculative bucket" to your portfolio. When considering more speculative investments, Smolinski said there are two broad directions you could go in. One, you could consider policy-driven impacts, and industries and businesses that are likely to benefit under the current administration over the next two to four years. Two, you could think longer-term, beyond the current administration, about "industry-level revolutions and what companies are positioning themselves well," he said, giving Palantir as an example. "Palantir started as mostly a government-facing AI contractor, but now they're spreading massively into the commercial industry." Use your intuition by asking yourself: "Do I think this could be bigger in the future, and why? If you can answer why with a decent reason, you're probably onto something," he said. You can also use an AI chatbot like ChatGPT to help you brainstorm by feeding it a prompt such as, "What kind of industries are likely to benefit the most, and what are publicly traded companies within those industries that are most likely to benefit?" he said. "Boom. It gives you all the research. Then, use it for follow-up questions to really help solidify your understanding of things." For the passive investor who wants to set and forget their portfolio and is less interested in having a speculative bucket, "it's very much about consistency," said Smolinski. Don't let recession chatter or market swings cause you to pull out of the market or avoid investing in the first place. "There's always something going on. Always. It's humanity. So, if you use the excuse of, 'blank is going on,' guess what? Something is always going on. It means you will do nothing," he said. "So much more money is lost by leaving it to sit and decay from inflation, chewing your lunch, and waiting for some sort of drop to put your money in. Simply start and don't stop."
Zawya
28-04-2025
- Business
- Zawya
UNCTAD expects global growth to slow to 2.3% in 2025 as trade, economic policy uncertainty erode business, investor confidence
GENEVA: Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.3% in 2025, slipping below the 2.5% threshold often associated with a global recession, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in its latest report. This marks a sharp deceleration compared to already sluggish pre-pandemic growth rates. UNCTAD warns that rising uncertainty is weighing heavily on the global economy. Trade tensions are escalating, with recent tariff hikes undermining predictability. Rising fragmentation, if left unchecked, could deepen the downturn. Trade policy uncertainty, now at historic highs, is eroding business confidence and reshaping global trade patterns. Manufacturers and investors are delaying decisions, reassessing supply chain strategies and stepping up risk management efforts. After a temporary surge at the end of 2024, merchandise trade momentum is fading, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index dropping by 40% between January and March 2025, falling back to pre-pandemic levels. Record-high economic policy uncertainty is also fuelling financial turbulence. In early 2025, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reached its highest level this century, surpassing peaks during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. In early April, markets saw sharp corrections and heavy losses after weeks of volatility. The so-called financial 'fear index' – a gauge of US stock market volatility – reached its third-highest level on record, behind only the peaks seen during the pandemic and global financial crisis. Heightened uncertainty is pushing up bond yields, reflected in a rising "term premium" – extra compensation investors demand for holding long-term debt. This is raising financing costs for governments, households and firms, putting further upward pressure on global interest rates and complicating prospects for developing economies. The slowdown will affect all economies, but UNCTAD highlights particular risks for developing countries. Many low-income economies face a 'perfect storm' of tighter financial conditions, high external debt and weakening domestic growth. More than half of low-income countries – 35 out of 68 – are now in debt distress or at high risk, according to the International Monetary Fund. Persistently high bond yields in advanced economies, alongside tighter US monetary policy, are expected to crowd out financial flows to developing countries. Investor caution is redirecting capital toward assets and markets perceived as 'safer', further straining financing for the Global South. Despite the headwinds, opportunities exist. Trade among developing countries – also known as South-South trade – is expanding faster than other trade flows and now accounts for about one third of global trade. In East and South-East Asia, intraregional trade has been a major force behind economic growth, with the region contributing over 40% of global growth in 2024. UNCTAD's report calls for stronger regional integration, renewed multilateral cooperation and a rebalancing of fiscal priorities toward sustainable infrastructure, social protection and climate action. Coordinated action, it says, will be essential to restore confidence and keep development on track
Gulf Today
27-04-2025
- Business
- Gulf Today
Global growth to slow to 2.3% in 2025: UNCTAD
Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.3% in 2025, slipping below the 2.5% threshold often associated with a global recession, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in its latest report. This marks a sharp deceleration compared to already sluggish pre-pandemic growth rates. UNCTAD warns that rising uncertainty is weighing heavily on the global economy. Trade tensions are escalating, with recent tariff hikes undermining predictability. Rising fragmentation, if left unchecked, could deepen the downturn. Trade policy uncertainty, now at historic highs, is eroding business confidence and reshaping global trade patterns. Manufacturers and investors are delaying decisions, reassessing supply chain strategies and stepping up risk management efforts. After a temporary surge at the end of 2024, merchandise trade momentum is fading, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index dropping by 40% between January and March 2025, falling back to pre-pandemic levels. Record-high economic policy uncertainty is also fuelling financial turbulence. In early 2025, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reached its highest level this century, surpassing peaks during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. In early April, markets saw sharp corrections and heavy losses after weeks of volatility. The so-called financial "fear index' - a gauge of US stock market volatility - reached its third-highest level on record, behind only the peaks seen during the pandemic and global financial crisis. Heightened uncertainty is pushing up bond yields, reflected in a rising "term premium" - extra compensation investors demand for holding long-term debt. This is raising financing costs for governments, households and firms, putting further upward pressure on global interest rates and complicating prospects for developing economies. The slowdown will affect all economies, but UNCTAD highlights particular risks for developing countries. Many low-income economies face a "perfect storm' of tighter financial conditions, high external debt and weakening domestic growth. More than half of low-income countries - 35 out of 68 - are now in debt distress or at high risk, according to the International Monetary Fund. Persistently high bond yields in advanced economies, alongside tighter US monetary policy, are expected to crowd out financial flows to developing countries. Investor caution is redirecting capital toward assets and markets perceived as "safer', further straining financing for the Global South. Despite the headwinds, opportunities exist. Trade among developing countries - also known as South-South trade - is expanding faster than other trade flows and now accounts for about one third of global trade. In East and South-East Asia, intraregional trade has been a major force behind economic growth, with the region contributing over 40% of global growth in 2024. UNCTAD's report calls for stronger regional integration, renewed multilateral cooperation and a rebalancing of fiscal priorities toward sustainable infrastructure, social protection and climate action. Coordinated action, it says, will be essential to restore confidence and keep development on track.
Bloomberg
17-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Economic Uncertainty Has Never Felt This Uncertain
President Trump's tariff war is driving measures of policy uncertainty to records. That could come with a substantial cost. Save These are uncertain economic times. You don't have to take my word for it. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index says so: The economists responsible for these numbers also publish a monthly US index based on a different assortment of news sources; I've averaged their daily numbers here to be able to show what's happened so far in April. They have another monthly US index that factors in disagreement among economic forecasters and expiring tax provisions, as well as uncertainty indexes for all the states, 30 other countries and a global index that comes out with a lag and shows January to have been the most uncertain month on record.
