Latest news with #Eisman
CNBC
3 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman: Tariffs are my only concern
Investor Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" fame thinks it's dangerous to chase upside right now. "I have one concern, and that's tariffs. That's it," the former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager told CNBC's " Fast Money " on Monday. "The market has gotten pretty complacent about it." Now podcast host of "The Real Eisman Playbook," Eisman contends Wall Street is underestimating the complexity of ongoing U.S. trade negotiations with China and Europe. "I just don't know how to handicap this because there's just too many balls in the air," said Eisman, who warns a full-blown trade war isn't off the table . It appears Wall Street shrugged off tariff risks on Monday. Stocks started the month higher — with the Dow Industrials coming back from a 416-point deficit earlier in the session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also rebounded from earlier losses and gained 0.7%. Eisman, who's known for successfully shorting the housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, is still invested in the market despite his concern. "I am long only. I've taken some risk down, and I'm just sitting pat," he added. Meanwhile, Eisman is downplaying risks tied to balancing the massive U.S. budget deficit . From 'ridiculous' to 'absurd' "If there was an alternative to Treasurys, I might be worried more about the deficit because I'd say if we don't balance our budget, then people will sell our Treasurys and buy something else," Eisman said. "But what else are they going to buy? They're not going to buy bitcoin . It's not big enough. They're not going to buy Chinese bonds. That's ridiculous. They're not going to buy European or Italian bonds. That's absurd." He's also not worried about firming U.S. Treasury yields. "The 10-year [Treasury note yield] has gone up, but it's still 4.5%," said Eisman. "It's not like there's some crazy sell-off." The benchmark yield was at roughly 4.4% as of Monday night. What about the prospect of the 10-year yield topping 5%? "Relative to where it's been because rates were zero, it's high," Eisman said. "But relative to history, it's not that high." Sign up for the Spotlight newsletter, a hand-curated collection of video clips selected by CNBC's top editors and producers. Your daily recap of top business highlights and leading stories. Disclaimer
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'I'm not trying to be a hero': How 'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman is playing the market as tariffs bite
Steve Eisman has some ideas for how to position in markets amid the latest tariff-driven sell-off. The "Big Short" investor spoke to CNBC about how he's adjusting his investing approach. He's eyeing two single stocks and de-risking his portfolio overall. Markets have been on a rollercoaster since Trump unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariffs and doubled down on his trade war between the US and China. Steve Eisman is absorbing the volatility and offering a few ideas for how to play the market. Speaking to CNBC on Tuesday, the "Big Short" investor — who bet against the subprime mortgage industry leading up to the 2008 crisis — said he was making a change in his portfolio and shared a few ideas for how he was thinking about markets. The first thing he's doing is broadly de-risking. "I've taken some risk down in my personal portfolio, and I'm waiting." Eisman said. "I think we're going to have volatility for quite a while." This embedded content is not available in your region. He's also trying to maintain a long-term time horizon, noting that he's rarely been a day-trader throughout his career. "If things get resolved fairly quickly, you'll have a very bullish market for quite a while, and if you miss the first few percent, it's not a calamity. On the other hand, if things go poorly, which they certainly could, then you'll have wished you sold. So I'm not trying to be a hero here," Eisman said. In terms of specific bets, Eisman highlighted Nvidia and Apollo as two stocks he's bullish on for the next five years. "I just think these companies have very strong long-term fundamentals, and if you stick with them for a long time, you'll make money," he said. He noted that it didn't have any short-term forecast for stocks due to the uncertainty stemming from the president's policies. "We're in a type of market where — which doesn't happen that often, but it does happen — where there's only one variable that matters. And right now, the variable that matters is the president of the United States. And I can't handicap that right now," he said. Eisman sees more upside in the artificial intelligence space, despite chatter that the hype for AI could represent another market bubble vulnerable to popping. "I think we're only in the very very early beginnings of the AI revolution. I'm quite convinced of that. I don't think Nvidia's best days are behind it," Eisman said. "Do I think Nvidia is going to grow 300% again in a year? Almost certainly not. But do I think it's one of the best long-term stories out there? I certainly do." Eisman has issued several bullish calls related to AI in the past. Last year, he speculated that Apple could be the market's hidden AI play, and said he believed artificial intelligence could result in an infrastructure boom. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
09-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman says the US will win a trade war — and Trump will get everything he wants 'if reasonable heads prevail'
The US would prevail in a global trade war, Steve Eisman said. Exports account for a bigger chunk of foreign GDP than the US, giving America an edge in talks, Eisman said. Some have said the US is poised to weather recession better than other countries. The US is best positioned to win the mounting trade war — and Donald Trump is in a good position to get everything he wants out of any coming tariff negotiations, Steve Eisman said this week. Since Wednesday, the escalating tariff conflict has squashed market confidence and cratered stocks for three days. The abrupt escalation of the global trade war has turned some of President Donald Trump's staunchest Wall Street supporters into vocal critics. However, Eisman, of "The Big Short" fame, said he expects foreign nations to meet White House demands or risk greater economic devastation than what the US could experience. "The reason why cooler heads will prevail is that, again, in a trade war, everybody will suffer; the US will suffer the least," he said Tuesday. Underpinning his outlook is the fact that 11% of US GDP is composed of exports, well below the percentages of other countries, Eisman cites. Exports account for over 30% of European GDPs and 35% for Mexico and Canada. "25 points of that 35% is just exports to the United States — those two countries hold no cards," Eisman said, later adding: "If reasonable heads prevail, Trump will get pretty much what he wants." For now, that hasn't happened. Since March, Mexico and Canada have wasted no time matching Trump tariffs with reciprocal actions. The same thing occurred after Trump imposed worldwide tariffs on Wednesday, implementing country-specific rates that shocked investors. China issued steep tariffs in response, sending the S&P 500 to bear market lows. To be sure, sentiment improved and the market rallied on Tuesday on news that Japan is discussing a trade deal with the US. Still, the conflict stirred up fear of a global recession induced by an escalating trade conflict. But if Eisman is correct and the US outperforms other economies in this scenario, that could be win for investors. Market veteran Ed Yardeni noted last week that American assets would become relatively attractive compared to foreign counterparts. The US also holds key advantages not shared by international peers. "The US is at full employment, is a net energy exporter, and has a dynamic and flexible services-driven economy," Yardeni outlined ahead of Trump's latest tariffs. US debt dynamics, are a concern, but don't compare to China's situation. These outlooks contradict rising consensus that the US may be increasingly shunned as it pursues its indiscriminate tariff strategy. Deutsche Bank went as far as to warn that the dollar is facing a "confidence crisis," as it shed gains against other currencies. Asked whether tariffs could erode US exceptionalism or hurt the dollar, Eisman dismissed the idea. "I think ending the US as a reserve currency in the world would take so much it's unimaginable to me," he said. "To end, you need an alternative, and there is no alternative. It's not crypto, it's not China bonds, it's not European bonds, it's not Italian bonds." Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
