Latest news with #ElNinoSouthernOscillation
Otago Daily Times
5 days ago
- Climate
- Otago Daily Times
A warmer winter is on its way
Electricity bills may deliver less of a hammering this winter if Niwa's outlook for the next few months comes to fruition. It shows temperatures from June to August are "very likely" to be warmer than average this winter, meaning fewer cold snaps and frosts than usual. Niwa National Climate Centre forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said El Nino Southern Oscillation (Enso) conditions in the tropical Pacific remained neutral at present, but there were "residual signals" that indicated weak La Nina conditions were persisting. Occasional La Nina-like atmospheric patterns might still emerge over the next three months, he said. "However, international guidance indicates about a 70% chance for the tropical Pacific to remain in an Enso-neutral state over the next three-month period." He said higher-than-normal atmospheric pressure was expected to the east of the country, leading to northeasterly flow anomalies that might shift to a more northwesterly direction towards the end of the three-month period. That means seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average across all New Zealand regions for the winter season. "While cold snaps and frosts will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual." On the West Coast, Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago, and Southland, temperatures were very likely to be above average, he said. Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal. Temperatures were also very likely to be above average along coastal Otago, he said. "Rainfall totals are most likely to be in the near normal range, and soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal." Mr Brandolino said for the remainder of the calendar year, Enso-neutral conditions were expected to persist. "The guidance available, however, suggests the possibility for La Nina conditions to return by summer 2025-2026." La Nina can bring more northeasterly winds to New Zealand, leading to drier conditions in the south and southwest of the South Island.
1News
5 days ago
- Climate
- 1News
Daniel Corbett's winter outlook: Get ready for a wild ride
This winter could bring a bit of everything on to our table. It will be like grabbing the extra big plate at the smorgasbord to get a sample of everything from the buffet. The season's weather will feature lots of variety - from the risk of heavy extreme rainfall to Antarctic cold and some fine settled days in between. This variety will be the key feature because there's no set driving force to the weather over the next few months. Instead, we will have lots of factors jostling for space on our weather maps each week. Watch Daniel Corbett's winter outlook on TVNZ+ The main driver that can influence our weather is ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation – which has now tilted back to the middle of the scale. That puts us midway between the La Nina of last year and El Nino at neutral. ADVERTISEMENT In a meteorological sense that means the Pacific Ocean, instead of being too warm or too cold, is just in the middle. Iin other words, rather than a predominant El Nino which pushes westerly winds across New Zealand, or more easterlies with a La Nina, we could have both - if not other wind directions too. The big pink elephant in the room leading into winter is the warmer than normal seas around New Zealand, and many of the areas surrounding us, that help produce our weather systems. They are currently running 1-4C above normal. Sea temperatures are generally above average currently. Courtesy NOAA. (Source: Supplied) Our warming planet has been making this quite commonplace these days. Think of warmer seas like that hotter tub of bath water with rising steam coming off it. It has more rising air because of the warmer water, which can lead to more vertical motion to help create clouds and weather systems. Warm seas ADVERTISEMENT The extreme rainfall events in Nelson and at Taree in New South Wales are very recent memories but they're also a good reminder of the stacked deck of cards that the weather now throws our way during heavy rain events. The warm seas, a more significant feed of juicy air from the tropics, and the right conditions for low pressure development combined often play a part in these rainfall events. As a result, more extreme rainfall events may not be out of the realm of possibilities again over winter. With this mix of different types of weather during the season, the extra thick merino as well as the sunglasses and thinner layers will all come in handy. Of course, the raincoats will also be a big go-to at times. Overall, the winter will be warmer than normal thanks to the surrounding seas but that won't completely keep outbreaks of cold air from making a visit at times too. This will especially be the case when a lobe of the all too familiar Polar Vortex rotates into the Southern Ocean. Brrr! The skiers might find some decent snowfall on occasion too with the right moisture feed coinciding with these cold surges. So, get ready for winter - it looks like it could be a wild ride. ADVERTISEMENT Watch Daniel Corbett's winter outlook on TVNZ+
Hindustan Times
30-04-2025
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
Above normal rainfall likely over entire S Asia region, including India, in June-Sept
Most parts of South Asia, including India, will see above normal rainfall during southwest monsoon season (June-September) while maximum temperatures over the central parts of the region and most areas in the southern parts are likely to be normal to below normal, the Consensus Outlook Statement for South Asia Summer Monsoon Season said on Wednesday. The statement was released by M Ravichandran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences (MoES). Above normal minimum temperatures are most likely over most parts of South Asia all of monsoon season, except some isolated areas of south-eastern part of the region where normal minimum temperatures are most likely. 'The seasonal maximum temperatures are most likely to be above normal over most areas of the northern, eastern, and northeastern parts of the region, as well as some areas in the southern parts. However, maximum temperatures over the central parts of the region and most areas in the southern parts are likely to be normal to below normal,' the statement said. On April 15, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted that monsoon rainfall during June to September, over the country is likely to be 'above normal' at 105% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The private MET forecaster, Skymet Weather, had forecast a 'normal' monsoon at about 102% of the LPA, with an error margin of 5%. Also Read: No immediate respite from heat: IMD forecast The regional climate outlook for the 2025 southwest monsoon season over South Asia has been collaboratively developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia with the support from international experts at the 31st session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-31) being held in Pune. The process involved an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions, national level forecasts and forecasts from different climate forecasting agencies around the world. 'The northern hemisphere winter and spring snow cover extent has a general inverse relationship with the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia. The NH winter and spring snow cover areas during January to March 2025 were below normal. The snow cover area during January and March respectively, was 4th and 6th lowest ever recorded during the past 59 years,' the statement said. These projections from southwestern monsoon are made based on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Indian Ocean Dipole; tropical Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, Eurasian land heating, among others. The relative impact of all these parameters needs to be considered to determine the expected state of the monsoon over the region, which is implicitly considered by the dynamical climate models that underpin the present outlook. The ENSO is one of the global-scale climate phenomena that has a robust inverse association with the year-to-year variability of the monsoon over South Asia. Currently,neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest forecasts from various coupled global models indicate that the neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the upcoming monsoon season. In addition to ENSO, other factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also influence the South Asian southwest monsoon. A positive (negative) IOD is in general associated with a stronger (weaker) than normal southwest monsoon over the region. At present, neutral IOD conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The recent forecasts from coupled global models suggest that the neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season.
Nahar Net
10-04-2025
- Climate
- Nahar Net
La Nina exits after three weak months, leaving Earth in neutral climate state
by Naharnet Newsdesk 6 hours See you later La Nina, we hardly knew you. La Nina, the natural cooling flip side of the better known and warmer El Nino climate phenomenon, has dwindled away after just three months. The La Nina that appeared in January, months later than forecast, was a weak one, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday. Earth is now in a neutral setting in the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle, which is generally the most benign of the three states that help influence hurricane formation, droughts, floods and global temperatures. NOAA forecasts the neutral setting to last most if not all of 2025. That makes longer-term weather forecasts a bit trickier because one of the major factors is not pushing one way or the other. La Nina is an irregular rising of unusually cold water in a key part of the central equatorial Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide. It typically brings more Atlantic hurricanes in the summer, but it won't be a factor this year. In the United States, La Ninas tend to cause drier weather in the South and West and often make it wetter in parts of Indonesia, northern Australia and southern Africa. Studies have found that La Ninas tend to be costlier than El Ninos and neutral conditions. Before this three-month La Nina, the world had an unusually long three-year La Nina that ended in 2023.
Nahar Net
10-04-2025
- Climate
- Nahar Net
La Nina exits after three weak months, leaving Earth in neutral climate state
by Naharnet Newsdesk 10 April 2025, 16:57 See you later La Nina, we hardly knew you. La Nina, the natural cooling flip side of the better known and warmer El Nino climate phenomenon, has dwindled away after just three months. The La Nina that appeared in January, months later than forecast, was a weak one, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday. Earth is now in a neutral setting in the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle, which is generally the most benign of the three states that help influence hurricane formation, droughts, floods and global temperatures. NOAA forecasts the neutral setting to last most if not all of 2025. That makes longer-term weather forecasts a bit trickier because one of the major factors is not pushing one way or the other. La Nina is an irregular rising of unusually cold water in a key part of the central equatorial Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide. It typically brings more Atlantic hurricanes in the summer, but it won't be a factor this year. In the United States, La Ninas tend to cause drier weather in the South and West and often make it wetter in parts of Indonesia, northern Australia and southern Africa. Studies have found that La Ninas tend to be costlier than El Ninos and neutral conditions. Before this three-month La Nina, the world had an unusually long three-year La Nina that ended in 2023.
