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Local France
09-04-2025
- Politics
- Local France
OPINION: The race to defeat the French far right in 2027 starts now
Emmanuel Macron will have served two five-year terms, which is all that the constitution allows. Marine Le Pen will be banned as a convicted embezzler of public money, unless she at least partially wins her appeal next year. So who will be the next President of the Republic? Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen's glib sidekick, will be only 32 years old. Even Le Pen suggested publicly the other day that her protégé was 'not ready'. And yet the long-range polls put him far ahead of the rest of the potential 2027 field, with the same projected first-round result as Le Pen (33-36 percent). Those, however, are first-round scores. They are menacingly high but do not guarantee a Far Right victory in the run-off. On three occasions in the Fifth Republic, in 1974, in 1981 and in 1995, it was the runner-up in Round One who topped the poll and became President in Round Two. Explained: How France's two-round voting system works That could easily happen again in 2027. The projected Far Right score is historically high but polls suggest that both Le Pen and Bardella would still struggle to reach 50 percent in the second round. Their negative ratings are in the upper-40s. In other words, almost half the electorate says that they would not vote for either of them. Advertisement The Far Right score tends to peak between presidential elections and deflate as voters come closer to polling day. The destructive behaviour of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in the next two years could undermine the popularity of populists throughout Europe. In France, much will depend, nonetheless, on three things: which other candidate reaches the second round; their momentum at the end of Round One; and the size of the gap to be made up on Le Pen/Bardella. Two years out, the chasing pack is already enormous and growing all the time. I can count 18 declared or likely runners. Only five, in my view, have even a slim chance of reaching Round Two. In the Centre, the four would-be successors to President Macron include three of his five Prime Ministers: Edouard Philippe (a declared candidate); Gabriel Attal (who all but declared last weekend); and François Bayrou (who is widely suspected of thinking that his turn has come). The justice minister, Gérald Darmanin, also believes in his own destiny. Bayrou is sinking. Darmanin is nowhere. Philippe and Attal have by far the highest first-round poll scores in the pack chasing Le Pen/Bardella (23 percent and 18 percent in an Elabe poll last weekend). These projections assume, however, that only one Centrist front-runner exists and that the other has miraculously vanished. On the Left, there are at least eight probable contenders, if you include the stubborn candidates of the rival Trotskyist tribes plus the Communists and the Greens. There are only three Left candidates who could approach or exceed double figures. They are Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the perennial tribune of the rip-it-all-down Left; François Ruffin, his more moderate and more likeable rival; and Raphael Glucksmann, the would-be revivalist of the reformist, pro-European centre-left. The former Socialist President, François Hollande, also dreams of a Trump-like resurrection. He shouldn't. On the broadly Gaullist centre-right, there are four declared or likely runners, including three no-hopers and a dark horse. The no-hopers are the hapless leader of Les Républicains, Laurent Wauquiez, who is widely detested even in his own party; the president of the northern French region, Xavier Bertrand; and - implausibly but insistently - the former Chirac-era Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Dominique de Villepin. Advertisement The dark-horse is the hard right interior minister Bruno Retailleau, who is credited with 10 percent in some first round polls. It is unlikely, however, that both candidates in Round Two could come from the hard-and-far Right. To this jostling crowd should be added two candidates of the xenophobic, nationalist but anti-Le Pen Right: Eric Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, whose main significance will be to add another 7 points to the potential Le Pen/Bardella total in Round Two. Of these 18 candidates (others will doubtless emerge) only one can reach the second round alongside Le Pen/Bardella. That is the golden ticket. Whoever joins the Far Right in the run-off will have a good chance of being the next President. The five with at least a slender chance of reaching Round Two are, in my opinion, Philippe, Attal, Mélenchon, Glucksmann and Retailleau. The race starts, in effect, now. There are so far no agreed systems to thin out the crowded field. There could be a primary election once again next year for the Centre-right. That is unlikely on the Left and in the Centre. Advertisement For them the only primary will be the public, opinion polls, giving the pollsters enormous power. Will Mélenchon continue to dominate the Left? Or will the bulk of left-wing voters, desperate for a winning candidate, reinforce early or late trends in the polls and switch to Ruffin or Glucksmann? The other race-within-a-race will be the battle between two ex-Macron prime ministers, Philippe and Attal. They are performing a high-wire act: attempting to succeed Emmanuel while distancing themselves from Macron. If one sprints far ahead in the polls, the other may concede and give up. If they remain neck-and neck-into 2027, the Centre could be disastrously split going into the first round on April 11th or 18th. That might allow a left-wing candidate or Bruno Retailleau to take the second place by a fraction and confront Le Pen/Bardella in Round Two on April 25th or May 2nd. A close finish for second place in Round One could mean no momentum for the challenger to the Far Right in the run-off. It might leave a 12 or 13 point gap behind Le Pen/Bardella – wider than any gap that has ever been bridged by a runner-up in any presidential election in the Fifth Republic. It might mean a Far Right President. In the last two elections, I was convinced that Le Pen could not win. In 2027, I think a Le Pen/Bardella victory is far from certain. But it is possible. Consider the likely permutations. Edouard Philippe v Le Pen/Bardella? Philippe wins, probably. Gabriel Attal v Le Pen/Bardella? Attal wins, probably. Jean-Luc Mélenchon v Le Pen/Bardella. The Far Right wins, almost certainly. Bruno Retailleau v Le Pen/Bardella. Retailleau wins. Raphael Glucksmann v Le Pen/Bardella. A coin-toss.
Local France
06-04-2025
- Politics
- Local France
French far right rallies supporters over Le Pen conviction
The bombshell judgement stunned France's political establishment, with even some of her fiercest opponents saying the far-right leader should be allowed to stand in the 2027 vote. She has lodged an appeal. "People of France, let us mobilise to defend freedom, save democracy and support Marine!" Le Pen's National Rally (RN) party said on X ahead of the protest in Paris. Polls indicate Le Pen, 56, would easily top the first round of the two-round presidential vote if she ran -- the latest survey by pollster Elabe for broadcaster BFMTV, released Saturday, showed her with up to 36 percent of the vote. READ ALSO: OPINION - Marine Le Pen is a martyr to nothing but her own greed and arrogance She describes herself as the "favourite" to succeed President Emmanuel Macron. On Monday, Le Pen was found guilty of embezzlement and given a partly suspended jail term and an immediate ban on holding public office. Her supporters branded the ruling politically motivated, but Macron insisted the French judiciary is "independent". US President Donald Trump called the sentence a "witch hunt" by "European leftists using lawfare to silence free speech, and censor their political opponent". Prime Minister Francois Bayrou rejected that remark as "interference" in French affairs, in a newspaper interview released Saturday. He added that it was "neither healthy nor desirable" to stage a demonstration against the court ruling, insisting French institutions allowed for "the separation of powers and the defence of justice". Advertisement 'Victimisation' Le Pen's conviction set France's political scene alight, with some leftwing forces planning to stage a counter-rally on Sunday. Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old head of the National Rally, said the ruling would only boost support for the party. He has called the rally in Place Vauban in Paris's affluent 7th district "a mobilisation not against, but in support of French democracy". "It's not a power play," he said. On Saturday, National Rally supporters gathered in the southern port city of Marseille, but the turnout was relatively sparse, with around 500 people turning up. Le Pen has worked to turn the party into an electable mainstream force and rid it of the legacy of her father, its co-founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, who died in January and was frequently accused of racism. But now Le Pen risks seeing years of progress undone, political observers say. After the ruling, she accused authorities of using a "nuclear bomb" against her. She compared herself to Alexei Navalny, the jailed Russian opposition leader who died in an Arctic prison in 2024 after being jailed under President Vladimir Putin. "Indecent to the end," said left-leaning French daily Liberation in its verdict on that claim. Advertisement "She is forced to adopt an anti-establishment point of view and position," said Jean-Yves Dormagen, president of Cluster17, an opinion analysis institute. "Victimisation works with her voters," he added. The National Rally is the largest single party in the French parliament and can complicate life for Bayrou, who does not have a majority in the lower house. His predecessor Michel Barnier was ejected from office last December in a move backed by Le Pen. The Paris Court of Appeal said it would examine Le Pen's case within a timeframe that could potentially allow her to contest the polls if her conviction is overturned or her sentence changed. READ MORE: Appeals and rallies: What next for Marine Le Pen and the French far right?
Yahoo
06-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Le Pen's party would lead 2027 election despite embezzlement conviction, poll shows
France's far-Right National Rally (RN) would lead the presidential election if it were held today, despite an embezzlement conviction against Marine Le Pen, the party leader, according to a new survey. Last week, Ms Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling EU funds to pay party staff. The Paris court barred her from running for office for five years, which would make her ineligible to run in the 2027 presidential election. But the conviction has done little to sway public opinion. In several scenarios presented to respondents, in which either Ms Le Pen or her protégé, Jordan Bardella, were presented as the party's presidential candidate, the RN led with between 31 per cent to 36 per cent of the vote in the first round. Their nearest competitors include Edouard Philippe, Emmanuel Macron's former prime minister and former president François Hollande. The Elabe poll was conducted for BFMTV-La Tribune Dimanche. 'The RN is in prime position and in the same situation as the Formula 1 team that places two cars on the starting line. Plan B is working as well as Plan A,' said Bernard Sananès, president of Elabe. However, he cautioned that for the party to secure victory in the decisive second round, it would need to expand its current voter base. The findings of the poll will likely energise the RN party, which has called on their supporters to gather in Paris this afternoon in solidarity Ms Le Pen, who has described the conviction as a 'political decision'. Credit: TF1 - LE20H Between 8,000 -10,000 supporters, many of whom will be travelling from suburban and rural parts of France where the party's voter base is strongest, are expected to arrive in Paris this afternoon to show their support. A counter-protest, organised by the far-Left France Unbowed and the Greens, is also set to take place in central Paris. 'I didn't think the judges would go so far against our democratic process and interfere in the French people's choice,' Ms Le Pen said in an interview with broadcaster TF1 last week. 'Because, let's be quite clear, I've been eliminated. But in reality, it's millions of French people whose votes have been eliminated this evening as we speak.' Ms Le Pen's attack on France's judicial system mirrors similar grievances voiced by Donald Trump's against US courts which have blocked some of the American president's most controversial executive orders. On Friday, Mr Trump demanded that France 'free' Ms Le Pen, calling her ban from running for office a 'witch hunt'. He also drew comparisons with Ms Le Pen, telling reporters in the Oval Office that the situation in France 'sounds very much like this country'. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
06-04-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Le Pen's party would lead 2027 election despite embezzlement conviction, poll shows
France's far-Right National Rally (RN) would lead the presidential election if it were held today, despite an embezzlement conviction against Marine Le Pen, the party leader, according to a new survey. Last week, Ms Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling EU funds to pay party staff. The Paris court barred her from running for office for five years, which would make her ineligible to run in the 2027 presidential election. But the conviction has done little to sway public opinion. In several scenarios presented to respondents, in which either Ms Le Pen or her protégé, Jordan Bardella, were presented as the party's presidential candidate, the RN led with between 31 per cent to 36 per cent of the vote in the first round. Their nearest competitors include Edouard Philippe, Emmanuel Macron 's former prime minister and former president François Hollande. The Elabe poll was conducted for BFMTV-La Tribune Dimanche. 'The RN is in prime position and in the same situation as the Formula 1 team that places two cars on the starting line. Plan B is working as well as Plan A,' said Bernard Sananès, president of Elabe. However, he cautioned that for the party to secure victory in the decisive second round, it would need to expand its current voter base. The findings of the poll will likely energise the RN party, which has called on their supporters to gather in Paris this afternoon in solidarity Ms Le Pen, who has described the conviction as a 'political decision'. Between 8,000 -10,000 supporters, many of whom will be travelling from suburban and rural parts of France where the party's voter base is strongest, are expected to arrive in Paris this afternoon to show their support. A counter-protest, organised by the far-Left France Unbowed and the Greens, is also set to take place in central Paris. 'I didn't think the judges would go so far against our democratic process and interfere in the French people's choice,' Ms Le Pen said in an interview with broadcaster TF1 last week. 'Because, let's be quite clear, I've been eliminated. But in reality, it's millions of French people whose votes have been eliminated this evening as we speak.' Ms Le Pen's attack on France's judicial system mirrors similar grievances voiced by Donald Trump 's against US courts which have blocked some of the American president's most controversial executive orders. On Friday, Mr Trump demanded that France 'free' Ms Le Pen, calling her ban from running for office a 'witch hunt'. He also drew comparisons with Ms Le Pen, telling reporters in the Oval Office that the situation in France 'sounds very much like this country'.
Yahoo
12-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Over 70% of French people concerned war could spread to other countries neighbouring Russia
Over 70% of French people are concerned that the war could spread to other countries neighbouring Russia. Source: a poll conducted by Elabe and commissioned by BFMTV, a French news broadcast television and radio network, as reported by European Pravda Details: A total of 77% of respondents expressed concern that the war could threaten Russia's neighbours beyond Ukraine. Another 23% fear the war could directly affect France. Nearly 60% of French people agree with President Emmanuel Macron's proposal that France, as a nuclear power, could offer a "nuclear umbrella" to defend its European neighbours. Polls conducted in early March, following a controversial meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the US administration, showed that 64% of French people support continued aid to Ukraine and 67% are in favour of sending peacekeepers. Almost three-quarters of the French no longer view the United States as an ally. Support Ukrainska Pravda on Patreon!
