Latest news with #ElectoralCalculus
.png%3Ftrim%3D0%2C0%2C0%2C0%26width%3D1200%26height%3D800%26crop%3D1200%3A800&w=3840&q=100)
The Independent
6 days ago
- Business
- The Independent
Reform's rise explained: Ask chief political commentator John Rentoul anything
Welcome to an exclusive Ask Me Anything session with me, John Rentoul, The Independent 's chief political commentator. Keep scrolling for more. If you want to jump straight to the Q&A, click here. Nigel Farage has never been far from the headlines, but now his messaging – and Reform UK's platform – has shifted in ways that have sent the party's poll numbers soaring. This shift has caught Sir Keir Starmer's attention, prompting the prime minister to launch a series of attacks on Mr Farage's plans to spend 'billions upon billions upon billions, tens of billions of pounds, in an unfunded way', describing them as an 'exact repeat of what Liz Truss did'. Starmer said he wants to 'protect' working people from the impact of these policies. One pollster has suggested the UK is on the verge of 'a political earthquake'. Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, said: 'On these figures, Nigel Farage would be prime minister with a working majority and no need for a coalition with other parties.' However, others have urged caution, warning against reading too much into the polls and questioning some of the assumptions behind the Electoral Calculus forecast. With Farage's rise gaining momentum, the stakes have never been higher. Critics warn of risks to democracy, supporters see a fresh alternative to the tired two-party system, and many remain uncertain what Reform truly represents beyond a protest vote. So, what's driving this surge? What does Reform really stand for, and how credible are Farage's £80 billion spending promises? Join me live at 3pm BST on Wednesday, 4 June to explore Farage's evolving strategy, Reform's policies, and what this political shake-up could mean for Britain.
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tories are about to pay for tearing Cornwall apart
Every summer, Caroline Crabb watches a line of cars snake its way through Bodmin, a working-class town in the heart of Cornwall, to the more affluent areas like St Ives and Padstow. 'We see the traffic coming through at the same time every year and think, 'oooh here they come',' laughs the 48-year-old florist. Many of those passing through are en route to their holiday home – a privilege Cornwall council has made more expensive through its implementation of the double council tax premium on second home owners. The issue of second homes is contentious in regions up and down the country but none more so than Cornwall where there are an estimated 14,000 second homes, according to figures from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. On Rightmove, there are fewer than 400 available for long-term rent. It was areas like Cornwall that Gove had in mind when he introduced the Levelling Up and Regeneration Act 2023 which gave local authorities the power to add a 100pc council tax premium onto second home owners. It was expected to be a sure-fire Tory vote winner with seaside communities. Yet curiously, as Cornwall residents take to the polls in Thursday's local elections, they are poised to boot their Conservative council out, with many opting to swing LibDem or even Reform. Feeling on the ground with many in Bodmin is that the tax may just do more harm than good. 'To be honest, I don't agree with it,' says Crabb. 'They already pay council tax whether or not they're here all year round.' What rankles more with Crabb and her colleague Hayley Moore, 47, is that their own council tax has gone up by the maximum 5pc – not that the quality of local services has improved to match. 'We're in the lowest band, but we pay a lot,' says Moore. 'I don't know what it's for, other than street lights and bin collection.' Like many of those interviewed by this newspaper for this piece, both women are considering voting for Reform in today's election, despite knowing relatively little about the party's candidate. Cornwall has swung between Lib Dem, Independent and no overall control over the years. But, in 2021, the Tories took control of the council. Now, the Electoral Calculus predicts the Lib Dems will make sweeping gains to unseat them. Reform is also expected to do well, outperforming both Labour and the Conservatives, as voters channel fury at mainstream parties' recent track records. In local elections, it is possible for a second home owner to register to vote in two addresses. However, a row broke out in 2011 when Cornwall removed nearly 1,000 second home owners from the voting register by identifying those who were receiving the now-defunct council tax discount. Among the problems with the tax raid in Cornwall is that it has swept up many genuine locals whose main residences are also in the county. While there is a perception holiday home owners are all out-of-towners who use the properties just once or twice a year, Ron Morphey is proof this is not necessarily the case. The 69-year-old was slapped with the second home premium on the barn next door to his house. Now, he is weighing up whether to vote Reform. Morphey moved from Hampshire to the farm conversion three years ago to enjoy his retirement, spending £70,000 converting the former milking parlour into a small outhouse, complete with a kitchen. On paper, it is the ideal holiday let, but health and safety rules around farms make the prospect of having tenants of any kind almost impossible. The kitchen was, it turns out, a costly mistake. Morphey now faces an annual council tax bill of £2,700 for the barn alone, around £1,000 more than his main residence. 'Yes, it's got a separate kitchen – and that apparently qualifies it as a second home,' he says. 'But why should I have to pay double council tax when my primary residence is here and I already bring an income into the community? It just doesn't make sense.' He adds: 'The problem with living somewhere remote is you don't get to see the money back from it,' he says. 'I have to walk a quarter of a mile to drop my bin bags off to be collected. The council doesn't give us bins, so on windy days the rubbish gets strewn all over the fields.' Unable to swallow the double council tax, Morphey has reluctantly put the house back on the market. The increased supply from the influx of second homes has, he estimates, knocked around £75,000 off his house price. However, for young Cornish residents struggling to get on the property ladder, Morphey's complaints may fall on deaf ears. Leigh Frost, the Lib Dem leader for Cornwall, points out many of the county's residents are struggling to rent – let alone buy – a home. 'There's a tension in communities where 70pc of the properties are second homes,' he says. 'In Bodmin, we receive a lot of people from the outlying villages because they can no longer afford to live there, and that puts pressure on the town to develop more properties for that local community. And actually, these people have the right to be part of the communities they've grown up in.' The Local Government Association, which represents all councils in England and Wales, is upfront about the tax's ultimate aim – to free up more housing that can be used all year round. But, estate agent Fine & Country thinks the tax is working as intended. 'A lot of our properties are either holiday lets or second homes,' says Rick Huckle, of the Bodmin branch. 'The double council tax is certainly affecting those people, and we are seeing more former second homes coming on the market.' Many of those homes – apartments worth around £180,000 – are being snapped up by first-time buyers, Huckle adds. Meanwhile, the more expensive properties are falling in price. What would have been a £1m house for an investor is now a £850,000 house, and falling mortgage rates are bringing those homes more within reach of locals. 'I never understood why a little terrace in Padstow was £1m,' admits Huckle. 'That's still got to drop an awful long way for a barista or someone working in the local tourist trade to ever buy – that is never going to happen. But it does mean the retirees who have a bit more money can buy it.' The very wealthy, those with homes worth £1.5m, Huckle notes, can easily shrug off the extra tax. 'It doesn't matter to them, but it's the people in the middle, as usual, that are squeezed.' Is this the death of the middle-class dream of second homeownership, then? 'It might be,' Huckle says. For staunch charity shop manager Collette Hardy, the casualties of the war on second home owners are no great loss. Second home owners, she says, over-egg their contribution to local economies. 'We do need holiday makers, there's no doubt about that, even in Bodmin,' she says. 'The second home owners are down for maybe two months a year, and that's not enough to keep the local economy going.' A staunch Labour voter, Hardy, 59, supports the second home council tax premium, as a means of bringing money from holiday hotspots to smaller villages inland, where tourism is lighter. 'I've never been rich enough to live in one of the places that people with second homes can live,' she says. 'I've grown up working class, and yes, you do walk down these beautiful little valleys and think, 'one day I'd like to live in one of them'. But you know damn well you won't, because I never inherited money. 'If you're wealthy enough to have a second home, I don't see a problem with having to pay a bit more money. You're in a very privileged position.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
01-05-2025
- Business
- Telegraph
Tories are about to pay for tearing Cornwall apart
Every summer, Caroline Crabb watches a line of cars snake its way through Bodmin, a working-class town in the heart of Cornwall, to the more affluent areas like St Ives and Padstow. 'We see the traffic coming through at the same time every year and think, 'oooh here they come',' laughs the 48-year-old florist. Many of those passing through are en route to their holiday home – a privilege Cornwall council has made more expensive through its implementation of the double council tax premium on second home owners. The issue of second homes is contentious in regions up and down the country but none more so than Cornwall where there are an estimated 14,000 second homes, according to figures from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. On Rightmove, there are fewer than 400 available for long-term rent. It was areas like Cornwall that Gove had in mind when he introduced the Levelling Up and Regeneration Act 2023 which gave local authorities the power to add a 100pc council tax premium onto second home owners. It was expected to be a sure-fire Tory vote winner with seaside communities. Yet curiously, as Cornwall residents take to the polls in Thursday's local elections, they are poised to boot their Conservative council out, with many opting to swing LibDem or even Reform. Feeling on the ground with many in Bodmin is that the tax may just do more harm than good. 'To be honest, I don't agree with it,' says Crabb. 'They already pay council tax whether or not they're here all year round.' The idea to inflict higher taxes on second home owners was the brainchild of Michael Gove, who in 2023 despaired that they were turning seaside communities into hotels with an 'almost permanent Airbnb setting'. What rankles more with Crabb and her colleague Hayley Moore, 47, is that their own council tax has gone up by the maximum 5pc – not that the quality of local services has improved to match. 'We're in the lowest band, but we pay a lot,' says Moore. 'I don't know what it's for, other than street lights and bin collection.' Like many of those interviewed by this newspaper for this piece, both women are considering voting for Reform in today's election, despite knowing relatively little about the party's candidate. Cornwall has swung between Lib Dem, Independent and no overall control over the years. But, in 2021, the Tories took control of the council. Now, the Electoral Calculus predicts the Lib Dems will make sweeping gains to unseat them. Reform is also expected to do well, outperforming both Labour and the Conservatives, as voters channel fury at mainstream parties' recent track records. In local elections, it is possible for a second home owner to register to vote in two addresses. However, a row broke out in 2011 when Cornwall removed nearly 1,000 second home owners from the voting register by identifying those who were receiving the now-defunct council tax discount. Among the problems with the second home raid in Cornwall is that it has swept up many genuine locals whose main residences are also in the county. While there is a perception holiday home owners are all out-of-towners who use the properties just once or twice a year, Ron Morphey is proof this is not necessarily the case. The 69-year-old was slapped with the second home premium on the barn next door to his house. Now, he is weighing up whether to vote Reform. Morphey moved from Hampshire to the farm conversion three years ago to enjoy his retirement, spending £70,000 converting the former milking parlour into a small outhouse, complete with a kitchen. On paper, it is the ideal holiday let, but health and safety rules around farms make the prospect of having tenants of any kind almost impossible. The kitchen was, it turns out, a costly mistake. Morphey now faces an annual council tax bill of £2,700 for the barn alone, around £1,000 more than his main residence. 'Yes, it's got a separate kitchen – and that apparently qualifies it as a second home,' he says. 'But why should I have to pay double council tax when my primary residence is here and I already bring an income into the community? It just doesn't make sense.' He adds: 'The problem with living somewhere remote is you don't get to see the money back from it,' he says. 'I have to walk a quarter of a mile to drop my bin bags off to be collected. The council doesn't give us bins, so on windy days the rubbish gets strewn all over the fields.' Unable to swallow the double council tax, Morphey has reluctantly put the house back on the market. The increased supply from the influx of second homes has, he estimates, knocked around £75,000 off his house price. However, for young Cornish residents struggling to get on the property ladder, Morphey's complaints may fall on deaf ears. Leigh Frost, the Lib Dem leader for Cornwall, points out many of the county's residents are struggling to rent – let alone buy – a home. He notes that there are some 14,000 properties in the unitary authority that are classed as second homes, while the number of properties for long-term rent runs into the hundreds. 'There's a tension in communities where 70pc of the properties are second homes,' he says. 'In Bodmin, we receive a lot of people from the outlying villages because they can no longer afford to live there, and that puts pressure on the town to develop more properties for that local community. And actually, these people have the right to be part of the communities they've grown up in.' The Local Government Association, which represents all councils in England and Wales, is upfront about the tax's ultimate aim – to free up more housing that can be used all year round. To estate agent Fine & Country, the tax seems to be working as intended. 'A lot of our properties are either holiday lets or second homes,' says Rick Huckle, of the Bodmin branch. 'The double council tax is certainly affecting those people, and we are seeing more former second homes coming on the market.' Many of those homes – apartments worth around £180,000 – are being snapped up by first-time buyers, Huckle adds. Meanwhile, the more expensive properties are falling in price. What would have been a £1m house for an investor is now a £850,000 house, and falling mortgage rates are bringing those homes more within reach of locals. 'I never understood why a little terrace in Padstow was £1m,' admits Huckle. 'That's still got to drop an awful long way for a barista or someone working in the local tourist trade to ever buy – that is never going to happen. But it does mean the retirees who have a bit more money can buy it.' The very wealthy, those with homes worth £1.5m, Huckle notes, can easily shrug off the extra tax. 'It doesn't matter to them, but it's the people in the middle, as usual, that are squeezed.' Is this the death of the middle-class dream of second homeownership, then? 'It might be,' Huckle says. For staunch charity shop manager Collette Hardy, the casualties of the war on second home owners are no great loss. Second home owners, she says, over-egg their contribution to local economies. 'We do need holiday makers, there's no doubt about that, even in Bodmin,' she says. 'The second home owners are down for maybe two months a year, and that's not enough to keep the local economy going.' A staunch Labour voter, Hardy, 59, supports the second home council tax premium, as a means of bringing money from holiday hotspots to smaller villages inland, where tourism is lighter. 'I've never been rich enough to live in one of the places that people with second homes can live,' she says. 'I've grown up working class, and yes, you do walk down these beautiful little valleys and think, 'one day I'd like to live in one of them'. But you know damn well you won't, because I never inherited money. 'If you're wealthy enough to have a second home, I don't see a problem with having to pay a bit more money. You're in a very privileged position.'
Yahoo
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Labour voters support trans ruling, first poll reveals
The Supreme Court ruling that trans women are not legally women has been backed by a majority of Labour voters. A poll of more than 2,500 people found that 42 per cent of Labour voters agreed with the Supreme Court judgement that transgender women are not legally women under the Equality Act. A third – 32 per cent – disagreed with it, while 12 per cent did not know. The findings, the first major polling since the ruling, suggest that Sir Keir Starmer's previously equivocal statements on transgender women are out of touch with the majority of his party voters. Some 48 per cent of Labour voters said it was acceptable to exclude transgender women from women's sports, 41 per cent said the same for women's prisons and 38 per cent agreed it should be the case for women's toilets, according to the survey by pollsters Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now. Labour voters were, however, concerned that the ruling would lead to an increase in discrimination against transgender people, with 57 per cent believing this would be a consequence. Only three per cent believed it would decline. They were also split over JK Rowling's efforts to help fund organisations that advocate for women-only spaces, with 33 per cent against while 32 per cent were in favour. The Supreme Court ruled that when the term 'woman' was used in the Equality Act, it meant a biological woman and 'sex' meant biological sex. It also made it clear that if a space or service is designated as women-only, a person who was born male but identified as a woman did not have a right to use that space or service. Overall, the public backed the Supreme Court ruling by 59 per cent in favour, against 18 per cent who disagreed – a three-to-one majority. Tory voters and Reform voters had the biggest majorities in favour, at 83 per cent and 88 per cent in favour, respectively. Lib Dem and Green party voters were least likely to back the judgement at 31 per cent and 24 per cent in favour, respectively. Support for the ruling also declined with age. While 41 per cent of people aged 18 to 24 supported, it rose to 68 per cent among those aged 55 to 64 and 76 per cent for those aged over 65. More than half of voters backed exclusions on transgender women from women's sports (58 per cent), women's prisons (52 per cent) and women's toilets (51 per cent). It fell to 44 per cent for women's gyms and 41 per cent for rape crisis centres. Lesbian groups were some of the biggest supporters of the Supreme Court ruling, with the LGB Alliance stating that the decision is a 'landmark for lesbian rights in the UK'. Yet, access to Lesbian social groups ranked significantly lower among the public, with only 27 per cent saying that trans women should be excluded from those groups. Nearly half of voters believed that the ruling will have a positive impact on women's rights and safety (47 per cent) with just 19 per cent disagreeing. Reform UK and Conservative voters were most likely to believe it would have a positive impact, at 76 per cent and 67 per cent respectively. The Supreme Court ruling was prompted by the Scottish Government's bill on gender recognition. However, despite its calls for stronger transgender rights, more than half of Scots (53 per cent) believed the ruling would improve women's rights. When asked whether they approve or disapprove of Ms Rowling's support towards women-only spaces, 47 per cent of the public said they backed her compared to just 18 per cent who disapproved. Younger generations were split. Amongst voters aged 18 to 24, 32 per cent approved of her actions – exactly the same share as those who disapproved. While most people agree with the ruling that trans women are not legally women, 41 per cent accepted that the outcome could increase discrimination towards transgender people compared with the 37 per cent who believed it would be unchanged or even reduced. Voters from the Green party (74 per cent) and the Liberal Democrats (62 per cent) overwhelmingly believed that this could lead to an increase in discrimination. Labour voters come close behind at 57 per cent compared to 32 per cent of Conservative voters 27 per cent of Reform voters. The Scottish government's controversial bill on gender recognition was challenged by For Women Scotland. Despite support from the Scottish government for stronger transgender rights, over half (53 per cent) of Scottish respondents think the ruling will improve women's rights. On Tuesday, Alex Sobel, a Labour MP and former frontbencher, said he was 'deeply concerned' by the implications of the Supreme Court decision. In a break with the Government position, Mr Sobel wrote in a blog post that he was 'a firm believer of self determination, self ID and allowing all to live their lives as long as they do not cause harm to others'. He said: 'Our manifesto was clear that we must protect the freedom for people to explore their sexual orientation and gender identity. 'We need to stick to our manifesto commitment to modernise, simplify, and reform the intrusive and outdated gender recognition law to a new process. We must remove indignities for trans people who deserve recognition and acceptance.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Telegraph
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Majority of Labour voters support trans ruling, poll reveals
The Supreme Court ruling that trans women are not legally women under the Equality Act has been backed by a majority of Labour voters. A poll of more than 2,500 people found that 42 per cent of Labour voters agreed with the judgment. A third, 32 per cent, disagreed with it, while 12 per cent did not know. The findings, the first major polling since the ruling, suggest that Sir Keir Starmer's previously equivocal statements on transgender women are out of touch with the majority of Labour voters. Some 48 per cent of Labour voters said it was acceptable to exclude transgender women from women's sports, 41 per cent said the same for women's prisons and 38 per cent agreed it should be the case for women's toilets, according to the survey, by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now. Labour voters were, however, concerned that the ruling would lead to an increase in discrimination against transgender people, with 57 per cent believing this would be a consequence. Only three per cent believed it would decline. They were also split over JK Rowling's efforts to help fund organisations that advocate for women-only spaces, with 33 per cent against and 32 per cent in favour. The Supreme Court ruled that when the term 'woman' was used in the Equality Act, it meant a biological woman and 'sex' meant biological sex. It also made it clear that if a space or service was designated as women-only, a person who was born male but identified as a woman did not have a right to use it. Overall, the public backed the ruling, with 59 per cent in favour, and 18 per cent disagreeing – a three to one majority. Tory and Reform UK voters had the biggest majorities in favour, at 83 per cent and 88 per cent respectively. Lib Dem and Green voters were least likely to back the judgment, at 31 per cent and 24 per cent in favour. Support for the ruling also declined with age. While 41 per cent of people aged 18 to 24 supported it, that rose to 68 per cent among those aged 55 to 64 and 76 per cent for those over 65. More than half of all voters backed exclusions on transgender women from women's sports (58 per cent), women's prisons (52 per cent) and women's lavatories (51 per cent). That fell to 44 per cent for women's gyms and 41 per cent for rape crisis centres. Lesbian groups were some of the biggest supporters of the Supreme Court ruling, with the LGB Alliance saying it was a 'landmark for lesbian rights in the UK'. But access to lesbian social groups ranked significantly lower among the public, with only 27 per cent saying trans women should be excluded from those groups. Nearly half of voters believed that the ruling would have a positive impact on women's rights and safety (47 per cent), with 19 per cent disagreeing. Tory and Reform voters were most likely to believe it would have a positive impact, at 76 per cent and 67 per cent. The Supreme Court ruling was prompted by the Scottish Government's Bill on gender recognition, which was challenged by For Women Scotland. However, despite its calls for stronger transgender rights, 53 per cent of Scots believed it would improve women's rights. While most people agreed with the ruling, 41 per cent said it could increase discrimination towards transgender people compared with the 37 per cent who believed it would be unchanged or even reduced. Green party voters (74 per cent) and Liberal Democrats (62 per cent) overwhelmingly believed that it could lead to an increase in discrimination. Labour voters come close behind at 57 per cent, compared to 32 per cent of Conservative voters and 27 per cent of Reform voters. On Tuesday, Alex Sobel, a Labour MP and former frontbencher, said he was 'deeply concerned' by the implications of the Supreme Court decision, writing in a blog post that he was 'a firm believer of self determination, self-ID and allowing all to live their lives as long as they do not cause harm to others'. He said: 'Our manifesto was clear that we must protect the freedom for people to explore their sexual orientation and gender identity. We need to stick to our manifesto commitment to modernise, simplify, and reform the intrusive and outdated gender recognition law to a new process. We must remove indignities for trans people who deserve recognition and acceptance.'
