11 hours ago
SuperCoach NRL trade tips and Buy/Sell analysis for round 16
Second row is the major focus of trades this week after two men who are averaging roughly the same number of SuperCoach points as they have vowels in their names – Haumole Olakau'atu and Keaon Koloamatangi – copping injuries which look set to keep them out of the game for between three to six weeks.
Olakau'atu (shoulder) looks set for the full six weeks and as such I have him as an automatic sell.
As for Koloamatangi we're still awaiting updates following his scans. Best case scenario appears to be three weeks, worst case five plus.
The Rabbitohs have a bye on round 19 (and also in round 26) so even with a 'best case' outcome Koloamatangi looks likely to play seven of the remaining 12 weeks.
If we receive positive news from the scans then I suppose a case can be made to hold, but my inclination is to make the most of his tremendous price rise and sell now with an eye to buying back later in the season when the inevitable happens and one of our other gun FRF or 2RF go down with injury.
There are a number of replacement options at 2RF and I will go into the pros and cons of each below.
The SuperCoach team is as threadbare as the Cronulla backline at the moment with Tom Sangster and Wilson Smith off deck today so I'll need to keep the BUY/SELL analysis brief and may not get to every question in the Q&A – apologies in advance.
BUY/SELL ANALYSIS
Eliesa Katoa – Melbourne's Mr Reliable, Katoa has scored below 60 just once this season and has scores 70+ in nine of his 12 games. The Storm have served all their byes and thus play all 12 of the remaining rounds. BUY.
Erin Clark – Almost as safe as Katoa, Clark took a little while to fin his feet at the Warriors, but since round four (inclusive) he has failed to his 60 just once and has scored 65+ in nine of those ten games and hit triple figures twice in that span. The Warriors do not cover the round 18 big bye which hurts a little and the price is right at its peak but with handy DPP and great base I'm still a BUY here.
Hudson Young – The Raiders left edge 2RF is in career-best form and his 10 tries have him equal-third for that stat in the NRL. Averaging 48PPG in base and better than 15PPG in offloads/tackle busts combined there's a lot to like here. However, I prefer those above as Young misses rounds 18 (Origin) and 19 (bye) so while I would love to own him, I feel the time to buy is round 20 onwards. WAIT.
Briton Nikora – When the news broke that Sandon Smith had earned a lifeline thanks to Sam Walker's broken thumb I had to make a late change to my trade plans and as a result I brought in Nikora and boy was that a lucky break. The Cronulla edge had his best game of the year with a try, two linebreaks and a passel of offloads/tackle busts all adding up to 108 points. He's not a base stat monster (and is averaging just 38PPG in base this year whereas in the past three seasons he has averaged around 6PPG more in that area) but, like Canberra's Joe Tapine, Nikora has a strong history of averaging significantly better over the back half of a season than the first half so I'm expecting a lift. The Sharks do not cover the round 18 bye which hurts, but the $530K price is still tempting. Not a top-five at his position but certainly capable of sitting in the 6-10th range and that's not bad at his current price. MODERATE BUY
Tallis Duncan – South Sydney are dealing with an injury crisis and Tallis Duncan has been a major beneficiary of this. After averaging 47 minutes and 37 points per game over the first eight games of the season Tallis has played the full 80 in each of the past six matches (well he played 70 in round 11 but that's because he spent 10 in the bin) and has averaged 60.3PPG while doing so. His last two weeks have been particularly impressive with scores of 70 (54 in base) against the Raiders and 113 (a try and try assist plus 56 in base) against the Bulldogs. Covering the round 18 bye, and priced at $471K – to which he should add at least $100K over the next three weeks – Tallis could then be sold ahead of his round 19 bye. BUY FOR THOSE WHO HAVE PLENTY OF TRADES
Jahrome Hughes/Ryan Papenhuyzen – As mentioned above with Katoa, the Storm have served their byes and so provide tremendous cover from here till home. Hughes was immense in round 14 with two tries, two assists and seven tackle busts against the Cowboys and he's going to love playing against that team again in round 18 (when they'll be missing all their Origin players). Not quite as 'safe' as the goalkicking halves, Hughes' lack of byes lifts him into the elite category for sure and he's a decent buy. Papenhuyzen has cooled off a little after a phenomenal start to the season, but still has the second-best average of any fullback and with Souths/Cowboys (less Origin players) and Knights as three of his next four opponents he profiles as a must own. BUYS.
Jack Bostock – The Dolphins feasted on the Cowboys last week and Bostock was the major beneficiary with four tries, nine tackle busts and 176 points. I often caution against chasing points and quick cash on wingers as a couple of quiet games (and Bostock has scored 31 points or less five times this year already) quickly puts a halt to money making but this one might be worth a punt. The left edge of the Fins is humming at the moments, Bostock has a BE of -72 (and a score of 50 this week will ensure a negative BE again the following week) and match-ups against the defensively weak Knights then Rabbitohs. Not a keeper and does not cover round 18, but if you have plenty of trades and need a cash boost to get to a keeper then you could do much worse. RISKY BUY.
Herbie Farnworth – A freak. He can't keep scoring tries forever – or can he as his teammates seem hell bent on keeping the streak (eight consecutive games with a try) alive. There's no value at this price, but after scoring 150 last week and 105 the week before plus the aforementioned soft short term draw that price is not dropping any time soon. EITHER PAY OVERS OR DO NOT WATCH THE DOLPHINS
Jayden Campbell – Bounced back from a quiet round 14 to score 87 points against the Sea Eagles last week and at a really tough position he is one of only two five-eighths to average better than 70PPG (minimum five games). I won't talk anyone out of the buy, but with the Titans missing the round 18 bye and his BE of 106, I do feel that the best time to pick him up is round 19. SOFT BUY.
Josiah Karapani – Brought in to replace Selwyn Cobbo in round 14, Karapani made the most of his 14 runs scoring two tries, busting five tackles and accumulating 88 points. Tipped to hold his spot this week I still have him as a watch rather than buy. If named for his third game then he will be the most popular buy of the week, but for now he's a PASS.
Nathan Cleary/Nicho Hynes – Am bracketing the duo here as I have both as holds. Cleary is, once again, the top averaging half in the game and Hynes is fourth. With Origin and travel issues Cleary almost certainly does not play round 16 and he does not play round 18 (Origin/bye) which means at best owners will get one game out of him over the next three weeks. But then Penrith face Eels, Souths, Tigers, Titans and Knights. You'll want to own him for those games so any sale now is a two trade move. Hynes does not help in round 18 either – but he does cover 16 and 17 so if you have both then there's just one week (the top-13 scoring round 18 bye) that will see you without a half. The Sharks also have a pretty soft draw over the last seven rounds of the season and Hynes should average 70+ over that period. HOLD
Dylan Brown – The Parramatta five-eighth has had a couple of proper stinkers recently scoring 23 against Manly in round 12 and 19 against the Bulldogs in round 14. Suspended this week, leaking cash and no help in round 18 there are plenty of reasons to sell. But, on the other hand the five-eighth slot is a tough one and Brown outside of those poor games Brown scored 60+ in five of his last seven matches. I'm holding, but plenty will sell and that's probably the right move. SELL
