Latest news with #ElizabethEconomy
Bloomberg
4 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 9, 2025
- Andrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist at Citi - Elizabeth Economy, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution - Francisco Blanch, Head: Global Commodities at Bank of America - Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors Andrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist at Citi, discuses his outlook for the US economy and why his team is changing their rate cut prediction for 2025. Elizabeth Economy, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, discusses the latest developments in US-China trade negotiations. Francisco Blanch, Head: Global Commodities at Bank of America, talks about the outlook for commodities and oil and energy prices globally. Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, breaks down the health of the labor market and where it's trending in 2025.
Bloomberg
29-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
China Hawks Target Students, Tech in Trade War
Elizabeth Economy, senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, breaks down the US-China relationship as the Trump administration makes moves to further curb chip exports and revoke the visas of Chinese students studying in the US. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
29-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Despite tariff pause, U.S. and China continue bitter ‘decoupling'
The Trump administration's latest salvo against Chinese students - promising to 'aggressively revoke' their visas - underscores the tense state of the relationship between the world's two largest economies: Despite the temporary truce in their tariff war, the divisions between Washington and Beijing remain just as gaping - and are perhaps even widening. The détente that followed negotiations in Geneva this month is looking ever more fragile, analysts say, with ruptures on higher education, artificial intelligence chips and rare earth minerals. Subscribe to The Post Most newsletter for the most important and interesting stories from The Washington Post. 'Both countries are, and have been, on a path of strategic decoupling,' said Elizabeth Economy, a China expert at the Hoover Institution and former senior adviser on China in the Biden-era Department of Commerce. 'There's a complete lack of a foundation of trust and very few channels or opportunities to reinforce any kind of positive messaging.' Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that the U.S. would revoke visas of Chinese students in the United States, 'including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields.' He also said the administration would 'enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.' It remains unclear whether the crackdown applies to other types of visa applications, like Chinese tourist visas, and the State Department did not respond to a request for clarification. The administration banned Harvard University last week from enrolling foreign students - accusing the institution of coordinating with the Chinese Communist Party, without providing details. The largest proportion of foreign students at Harvard - almost 1,300 - are Chinese, and many top officials, including current leader Xi Jinping, have sent their children to the Ivy League school. One Chinese student at Harvard, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal from the U.S. government, said there had been alarm among her cohort. 'Everybody was saying, how could this happen?' the student said. The subsequent visa announcement heightened the panic among Chinese students and scholars in the U.S. 'It's not just one attack, it comes again and again,' said Yi-yi Liang, a research scholar at a Harvard humanities lab. 'I think the U.S. is still a good choice, but on the other hand, this kind of huge policy uncertainty really stops you from just going all in to pursue it. You just don't know what's next, and it's very hard to make a plan.' America's prestigious universities have long been a draw for top Chinese students, and those educational links have provided a steady pillar in the otherwise testy relationship. Xin Qiang, a professor of international relations at Shanghai's Fudan University who just returned from an academic exchange in California, said the trade war in combination with the recent visa crackdown 'is set to push China-U.S. relations into an increasingly horrifying vicious cycle.' Xin said he is worried that this 'shutdown of direct communication channels will only escalate our hostility and hatred toward each other.' Trump has taken aim at higher education's relationship with China before. During his first term, the Justice Department investigated scientists and researchers for their links to Beijing under the 'China Initiative' program. The Biden administration ended the program amid criticism that it was racially targeting Chinese Americans. The administration's current efforts to deter or exclude Chinese students from higher education in the United States follow several weeks of growing hostility after the niceties in Geneva, where negotiators met to de-escalate the trade war. The first flare-up emerged on May 13, the day after the two countries slashed tariffs while they held trade talks, when the U.S. Commerce Department issued guidance warning companies against using advanced Chinese chips, specifically Huawei's Ascend AI chips, because they 'were likely developed or produced in violation of U.S. export controls.' The tiny semiconductors, which power advanced AI systems, have long been a source of tension as both countries vie to dominate the emerging technology. Huawei, China's flagship technology giant, has been a particular target for Washington ever since the first Trump administration, which deployed economic tools to limit the company's access to advanced technology. Huawei did not respond to a request for comment. China's Commerce Ministry spokesperson fired back against the guidance last week, accusing Washington of 'undermining' the consensus reached in Geneva and describing the measures as 'typical unilateral bullying and protectionism.' The ministry also said anyone who assisted in implementing the policy would potentially violate a Chinese law that punishes firms for complying with international sanction regimes. 'China is not happy,' said Yanmei Xie, an independent geopolitics analyst. 'It's very clear that on advanced semiconductors, on AI, the U.S. wants countries to choose sides,' she added. 'So the tech decoupling is still in progress, despite the pause on the trade escalation.' Further evidence of that emerged this week, with the Trump administration telling companies to stop selling chip-design software to Chinese groups, according to the Financial Times. Nor has there been much progress on rare earths, a group of minerals that are required to manufacture a wide range of goods in the defense, health-care and technology sectors. China processes nearly all of the world's rare earths and instituted export controls in response to Trump's tariffs, triggering consternation and alarm among U.S. officials and companies. The Geneva agreement required Beijing to 'suspend or remove the nontariff countermeasures,' but experts say there is no sign of the restrictions being lifted. 'China is still taking a very, very tight approach to prevent its critical minerals being exported to the U.S.,' said Xu Tianchen, a senior economist for the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing, citing conversations with Chinese exporters and freight forwarders. The restrictions provide Beijing with a powerful source of leverage in future negotiations, said James Kennedy, a rare earths expert at St. Louis-based Three Consulting. 'What happened is, they picked the fight, thought they had a winning hand, and China politely showed them four aces,' he said, referring to the Trump administration. Beijing has other reasons to feel confident. Washington's crackdown on Chinese students allows Beijing to portray itself, in contrast to the U.S., as a welcoming hub for cutting-edge research, analysts say. 'This is something China is trying to take advantage of,' said Feng Chucheng, founding partner of Hutong Research, an independent consultancy in Beijing. China is trying to position itself, he added, as 'the leader of innovation' and 'uncensored scientific research.' Already in recent months, Chinese universities have hired Charles Lieber, a former Harvard scientist who was convicted under the China Initiative, and Alex Lamb, a senior AI scientist who previously worked at Microsoft. In the weeks since the temporary reprieve, Washington and Beijing appear to have held only limited discussions. The U.S. still has a 30 percent tariff on all Chinese goods - although that may decrease after a ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade on Wednesday - while Beijing has a 10 percent levy on American products. Chinese and U.S. officials met on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation event in South Korea this month. Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu met with the new U.S. ambassador to China, David Perdue, last week and held a call with Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau. Those open communication lines may offer a glimmer of hope, especially after the two countries abruptly cut off all contact during the height of the trade showdown in April, raising fears of a spiraling conflict. 'The bilateral channel for communications has been restored,' said Xu, from the Economist Intelligence Unit. 'That is a positive sign - that means we're starting to have more adults in the room, which can maybe prevent a reescalation going too far.' But it remains unclear exactly what is on the table for negotiation. Economy, from the Hoover Institution, said the talks could yield a deal on fentanyl enforcement, which Trump cited when he announced trade actions against China in the first place. Trump has accused China of failing to stop fentanyl-related chemicals from being exported to the U.S., fueling a deadly opioid crisis. Beijing has been cooperating in that area, and it could signal good faith by clamping down further, analysts say. However, Economy said she doesn't expect significant progress on what Washington views as China's unfair trading practices. 'The fentanyl issue could be a bright spot if the Chinese really have put forward something significant in terms of real enforcement,' she said. 'But other than that, I don't see the Chinese taking any steps to restructure the way they do business to accommodate U.S. pressure.' - - - Lyric Li contributed to this report. Related Content Despite ceasefire, India and Pakistan are locked in a cultural cold war Columbia protester Mahmoud Khalil's detention ruled likely unconstitutional The D.C. plane crash took her mom and sister. She turned to her piano.
Washington Post
29-05-2025
- Business
- Washington Post
Despite tariff pause, U.S. and China continue bitter ‘decoupling'
The Trump administration's latest salvo against Chinese students — promising to 'aggressively revoke' their visas — underscores the tense state of the relationship between the world's two largest economies: Despite the temporary truce in their tariff war, the divisions between Washington and Beijing remain just as gaping — and are perhaps even widening. The détente that followed negotiations in Geneva this month is looking ever more fragile, analysts say, with ruptures on higher education, artificial intelligence chips and rare earth minerals. 'Both countries are, and have been, on a path of strategic decoupling,' said Elizabeth Economy, a China expert at the Hoover Institution and former senior adviser on China in the Biden-era Department of Commerce. 'There's a complete lack of a foundation of trust and very few channels or opportunities to reinforce any kind of positive messaging.' Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that the U.S. would revoke visas of Chinese students in the United States, 'including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields.' He also said the administration would 'enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications from the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.' It remains unclear whether the crackdown applies to other types of visa applications, like Chinese tourist visas, and the State Department did not respond to a request for clarification. The administration banned Harvard University last week from enrolling foreign students — accusing the institution of coordinating with the Chinese Communist Party, without providing details. The largest proportion of foreign students at Harvard — almost 1,300 — are Chinese, and many top officials, including current leader Xi Jinping, have sent their children to the Ivy League school. One Chinese student at Harvard, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal from the U.S. government, said there had been alarm among her cohort. 'Everybody was saying, how could this happen?' the student said. The subsequent visa announcement heightened the panic among Chinese students and scholars in the U.S. 'It's not just one attack, it comes again and again,' said Yi-yi Liang, a research scholar at a Harvard humanities lab. 'I think the U.S. is still a good choice, but on the other hand, this kind of huge policy uncertainty really stops you from just going all in to pursue it. You just don't know what's next, and it's very hard to make a plan.' America's prestigious universities have long been a draw for top Chinese students, and those educational links have provided a steady pillar in the otherwise testy relationship. Xin Qiang, a professor of international relations at Shanghai's Fudan University who just returned from an academic exchange in California, said the trade war in combination with the recent visa crackdown 'is set to push China-U.S. relations into an increasingly horrifying vicious cycle.' Xin said he is worried that this 'shutdown of direct communication channels will only escalate our hostility and hatred toward each other.' Trump has taken aim at higher education's relationship with China before. During his first term, the Justice Department investigated scientists and researchers for their links to Beijing under the 'China Initiative' program. The Biden administration ended the program amid criticism that it was racially targeting Chinese Americans. The administration's current efforts to deter or exclude Chinese students from higher education in the United States follow several weeks of growing hostility after the niceties in Geneva, where negotiators met to de-escalate the trade war. The first flare-up emerged on May 13, the day after the two countries slashed tariffs while they held trade talks, when the U.S. Commerce Department issued guidance warning companies against using advanced Chinese chips, specifically Huawei's Ascend AI chips, because they 'were likely developed or produced in violation of U.S. export controls.' The tiny semiconductors, which power advanced AI systems, have long been a source of tension as both countries vie to dominate the emerging technology. Huawei, China's flagship technology giant, has been a particular target for Washington ever since the first Trump administration, which deployed economic tools to limit the company's access to advanced technology. Huawei did not respond to a request for comment. China's Commerce Ministry spokesperson fired back against the guidance last week, accusing Washington of 'undermining' the consensus reached in Geneva and describing the measures as 'typical unilateral bullying and protectionism.' The ministry also said anyone who assisted in implementing the policy would potentially violate a Chinese law that punishes firms for complying with international sanction regimes. 'China is not happy,' said Yanmei Xie, an independent geopolitics analyst. 'It's very clear that on advanced semiconductors, on AI, the U.S. wants countries to choose sides,' she added. 'So the tech decoupling is still in progress, despite the pause on the trade escalation.' Further evidence of that emerged this week, with the Trump administration telling companies to stop selling chip-design software to Chinese groups, according to the Financial Times. Nor has there been much progress on rare earths, a group of minerals that are required to manufacture a wide range of goods in the defense, health-care and technology sectors. China processes nearly all of the world's rare earths and instituted export controls in response to Trump's tariffs, triggering consternation and alarm among U.S. officials and companies. The Geneva agreement required Beijing to 'suspend or remove the nontariff countermeasures,' but experts say there is no sign of the restrictions being lifted. 'China is still taking a very, very tight approach to prevent its critical minerals being exported to the U.S.,' said Xu Tianchen, a senior economist for the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing, citing conversations with Chinese exporters and freight forwarders. The restrictions provide Beijing with a powerful source of leverage in future negotiations, said James Kennedy, a rare earths expert at St. Louis-based Three Consulting. 'What happened is, they picked the fight, thought they had a winning hand, and China politely showed them four aces,' he said, referring to the Trump administration. Beijing has other reasons to feel confident. Washington's crackdown on Chinese students allows Beijing to portray itself, in contrast to the U.S., as a welcoming hub for cutting-edge research, analysts say. 'This is something China is trying to take advantage of,' said Feng Chucheng, founding partner of Hutong Research, an independent consultancy in Beijing. China is trying to position itself, he added, as 'the leader of innovation' and 'uncensored scientific research.' Already in recent months, Chinese universities have hired Charles Lieber, a former Harvard scientist who was convicted under the China Initiative, and Alex Lamb, a senior AI scientist who previously worked at Microsoft. In the weeks since the temporary reprieve, Washington and Beijing appear to have held only limited discussions. The U.S. still has a 30 percent tariff on all Chinese goods — although that may decrease after a ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade on Wednesday — while Beijing has a 10 percent levy on American products. Chinese and U.S. officials met on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation event in South Korea this month. Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu met with the new U.S. ambassador to China, David Perdue, last week and held a call with Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau. Those open communication lines may offer a glimmer of hope, especially after the two countries abruptly cut off all contact during the height of the trade showdown in April, raising fears of a spiraling conflict. 'The bilateral channel for communications has been restored,' said Xu, from the Economist Intelligence Unit. 'That is a positive sign — that means we're starting to have more adults in the room, which can maybe prevent a reescalation going too far.' But it remains unclear exactly what is on the table for negotiation. Economy, from the Hoover Institution, said the talks could yield a deal on fentanyl enforcement, which Trump cited when he announced trade actions against China in the first place. Trump has accused China of failing to stop fentanyl-related chemicals from being exported to the U.S., fueling a deadly opioid crisis. Beijing has been cooperating in that area, and it could signal good faith by clamping down further, analysts say. However, Economy said she doesn't expect significant progress on what Washington views as China's unfair trading practices. 'The fentanyl issue could be a bright spot if the Chinese really have put forward something significant in terms of real enforcement,' she said. 'But other than that, I don't see the Chinese taking any steps to restructure the way they do business to accommodate U.S. pressure.' Lyric Li contributed to this report.
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Who Has the Upper Hand in US-China Relations?
Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow Elizabeth Economy discuss the US pivot on trade dealings with China. Summers believes there's pressure on the Chinese economy, but believes that there's even more pressure on the US economy. Elizabeth Economy states that both the US and China have "economic vulnerabilities."
