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Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Stock market outlook: Experts see Nifty 50 at 26K peak despite unlikely recovery in the near-term
India Inc.'s Q4 FY25 earnings season was broadly in line with Street expectations, reflecting subdued growth and offering limited optimism for a near-term recovery. Companies in the BSE-500 index posted a 8.7% year-on-year (YoY) increase in net profit, while the Nifty 50 companies reported a more modest 3.7% growth in net income. The fourth quarter was marked by modest operating performance across most sectors and muted commentary from company managements. This suggests that a strong revival in credit, consumption, or investment demand is unlikely in the immediate future. According to Kotak Institutional Equities, the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of Nifty 50 companies grew by 9.2% YoY in Q4. For the full fiscal year 2025, net income and EBITDA of the Nifty 50 rose by 6.4% and 4.5%, respectively. The Nifty 50 is currently trading at 20.2 times one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER), slightly below its five-year average of 21.7x. This positions the market in a relatively neutral valuation zone. 'Markets could see a phase of consolidation in the near term, as the percentage of BSE200 stocks trading above +1 standard deviation from their long-term average has increased significantly — from 10.6% to 30.3%,' said Seshadri Sen, Head of Research and Strategist at Emkay Global Financial Services. He added that while near-term global and geopolitical concerns have largely played out, a constructive trade agreement with the US could offer support. Emkay Global has maintained its Nifty 50 target of 26,000 for March 31, 2026, based on a long-term average PER of 20x on FY27 estimated EPS of 1,304. Meanwhile, Kotak Institutional Equities highlighted the Indian equity market's current dilemma — caught between high valuations, domestic growth challenges, and global macroeconomic headwinds on one side, and the hopes of an eventual recovery in economic and earnings growth on the other. 'We observe stretched valuations across most sectors and stocks—barring BFSI and a few exceptions — against a backdrop of weak volume growth and increasing disruption risks,' Kotak said in a note. Seshadri Sen remains constructive on the broader markets. While concerns around reciprocal tariffs have largely eased, he expects investor attention to shift toward the progress on bilateral trade agreements. 'We forecast Nifty EPS growth of around 12–13% in FY26. Green shoots of recovery in discretionary consumption may emerge as the impact of monetary easing becomes more pronounced. The market witnessed a V-shaped rally following the tariff pause, and we expect the beta rally to continue. Any meaningful correction should be considered a buying opportunity,' Sen said. He views current Nifty 50 levels as fundamentally justified, with scope for further upside as the earnings cycle begins to inflect. Supportive monetary policy — characterized by rate cuts, liquidity support, and relaxed lending norms — provides additional comfort. Emkay Global maintains its overweight stance on the Discretionary, Technology, and Telecom sectors, reflecting confidence in their growth potential amid an evolving macroeconomic landscape. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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Business Standard
23-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Why is Emkay Global constructive on Indian equities? Check why, top picks
With most of the events taking a back seat, the markets have been trading sideways, looking for a direction; Here's what Emkay recommend Listen to This Article The Indian stock market has been on a bumpy road over the past few months, navigating a host of global and domestic factors. On one hand, geopolitical tensions, such as the I ndia-Pakistan war following the Palgham terror attack, and US-China trade tariff negotiations, hit sentiment, while quarterly earnings and institutional investors' activity, somehow, supported the markets. Since lows made in April 2025, the Nifty and Sensex have rallied 11 per cent. With most of the events taking a back seat, the markets have been trading sideways, looking for a direction. Given this, domestic brokerage Emkay Global
Time of India
09-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Stocks to buy today: Nuvama sees 35% upside in Titan Company; Emkay retain buy on L&T post Q4 results
Emkay Global and Nuvama express confidence in L&T, Aarti Industries, and Titan Company, citing strong fundamentals and growth prospects. Emkay maintains a 'Buy' rating for L&T and Aarti Industries, while Nuvama upgrades Titan's target price due to robust jewellery sales. These brokerages anticipate significant upsides, driven by solid performance and positive future outlooks. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads We have collated a list of recommendations from top brokerage firms from ETNow and other sources: Emkay Global on L&T: Buy| Target Rs 4000| LTP Rs 3320| Upside 20% Emkay Global on Aarti Industries: Buy| Target Rs 500| LTP Rs 447| Upside 12% Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Leading brokerages Emkay Global and Nuvama remain bullish on key Indian stocks, reaffirming their positive outlooks despite broader market volatility for the next 12 latest research notes highlight resilient performances and robust growth prospects across companies such as Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Aarti Industries , and Titan Company Emkay Global sees continued strength in L&T and Aarti Industries, underpinned by solid fundamentals, strong execution momentum, and visibility on future Nuvama has upgraded its target price for Titan Company, driven by strong traction in its jewellery segment and optimistic demand revised target prices imply potential upsides ranging from 12% to 35%, reflecting the confidence of these brokerages in the companies' ability to deliver sustained long-term value to Global has maintained a BUY rating on Larsen & Toubro (L&T), while revising its SOTP-based target price for March 2026 downward by approximately 12% to Rs 4,000, from the current LTP of Rs 3,320, implying a potential upside of 20%.The brokerage noted that L&T's resilient performance in Q4 and FY25 reflects its diversified engineering and manufacturing capabilities and widespread presence across multiple geographies and customer company's revenue, EBITDA, and PAT witnessed robust year-on-year growth of 11%, 13%, and 17%, respectively, aided by a 30bps expansion in core EBITDA margin, along with strong cash flows and a return on equity (RoE) of around 16%.This solid performance was primarily driven by sustained momentum in international project execution. Order inflow remained healthy during Q4 and FY25, supported by large marquee orders across various ahead, L&T's management has highlighted a strong prospect pipeline of Rs 19 trillion for FY26, up from Rs 12.1 trillion in FY25, suggesting robust visibility for future order Emkay also cautioned that geopolitical tensions could lead to a slowdown in execution and delays in order conversion, posing near-term Global has maintained a BUY rating on Aarti Industries, with a revised target price of Rs 500, implying a 12% upside from the current market price of Rs company's Q4 EBITDA came in at Rs 2.7 billion, marking a 16% sequential increase but a 5% decline year-on-year, surpassing both street and internal outperformance was driven by higher volume growth across value chains. Notably, volumes in the non-energy segment rose 14% QoQ, led by strong performance in NCB, NT, and Ethylation, while the energy segment saw a 21% QoQ increase, benefiting from the bulk shipment of MMA, which had been deferred from Q3 to indicated early signs of demand stabilisation across product portfolios, supporting consistent volume growth despite a tough macroeconomic backdrop. Additionally, due to the imposition of US tariffs, Aarti is expected to experience improved volume growth in the coming company has successfully met its FY25 EBITDA guidance of Rs 10 billion and reiterated its FY28 EBITDA target of Rs 18–22 has made minor adjustments to its estimates, tweaking FY25E/FY26E EBITDA by -2% and +2%, respectively, to account for expected back-ended growth. Consequently, the target price has been revised upward by 11% to Rs 500 (from Rs 450 earlier), based on 25x March 2027 estimated has maintained a BUY rating on Titan Company, raising its target price to Rs 4,541 from Rs 4,115 earlier, reflecting a 35% upside from the current market price of Rs 3, upgrade is driven by strong operational performance in Q4FY25, particularly in the jewellery segment, where EBIT margins came in at 11.9%, beating was achieved despite gross margin pressures and a 3-percentage point year-on-year decline in the studded jewellery ratio, supported by operational leverage, a revival in the solitaire segment, and minor hedging also benefited from robust wedding and festive demand, which contributed to a 25% year-on-year growth in jewellery sales, even amid elevated gold ahead, demand is expected to remain strong in Q1FY26, given the higher number of wedding light of this continued momentum, Nuvama has revised FY26 and FY27 revenue estimates upward by 4% and 5%, respectively, and PAT estimates by 2% and 5%.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Business Recorder
06-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
India's Paytm posts wider sequential loss as stock option costs weigh
India's Paytm on Tuesday reported a wider sequential loss for the March quarter as one-time employee stock option costs weighed on earnings. The digital payments firm posted a loss of 5.4 billion rupees ($64.03 million) for the three months ended March 31, compared with a loss of 2.08 billion rupees in the previous quarter. Founder and CEO Vijay Shekhar Sharma gave up 210 million in employee stock options (ESOP) during the quarter, triggering a one-time expense of 4.92 billion rupees. The company expects ESOP costs to decline to up to 750 million rupees for April-June, compared to 1.69 billion rupees in the January-March quarter. Sharma's move came months after India's market regulator determined that the grant of 21 million ESOPs to Sharma violated its rules governing share-based employee benefits. One of India's first fintech firms to go public, Paytm said its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) before the cost of employee stock options, was 810 million rupees, compared to negative 410 million rupees in the previous quarter. Analysts at Motilal Oswal expected the company to report EBITDA before ESOP breakeven in the quarter, while Emkay Global expected the company to post a positive number for the metric. Paytm's revenue from operations rose 4.6% sequentially to 19.12 billion rupees, as the company continued to recover from the winding down of its payments bank unit. Revenue from financial services, which includes its loan business, rose 9% and payment services business climbed 4%. The country's financial regulator wound down Paytm's banking unit in January 2024, citing persistent compliance issues, sparking worries about its digital payments business and leading to a near 60% drop in Paytm's stock within two weeks. Since then, however, it received regulatory approval to sign on new Unified Payments Interface (UPI) users, helping the stock recover.
Time of India
01-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Rs 37,600 crore in 11 days! FIIs are flooding Indian stocks with cash but will it last?
For 11 straight sessions, foreign investors have been on a stock-buying spree in India, pumping a staggering Rs 37,600 crore into local equities. It's the kind of bullish streak that turns heads on Dalal Street—and it's happening as the rupee flexes its muscles and the dollar shows signs of fatigue. The Indian currency soared 77 paise against the greenback on Wednesday, closing at a five-month high of 84.49. That's the sharpest single-day gain since November 2022. The tailwinds? A cooling crude oil market and this relentless wave of foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows. The mood in the global macro theater is adding to the India cheer. According to Emkay Global , 'The DXY correction of ~10% from its peak is meaningful, now below 100 after 100 days of Trump's tumultuous tenure. Tariff risks appear largely priced in, with the path ahead skewed toward constructive trade negotiations broadly favorable for India.' Emkay also noted that the majority of their clients 'concurred with our positive view on India. The RBI easing puts India in a more favorable cyclical position, especially as worries around a deep recession in the US abate. This is also resulting in India seeing disproportionate flows vs other emerging markets.' Also read | Nifty traders, don't sell in May - just sway. Here's why the May myth crashes on Dalal Street That conviction is showing up in the numbers—and the narrative. 'Valuations are back to neutral territory & have started to look attractive,' said Pradeep Gupta, Executive Director and India Head of Investment at Lighthouse Canton. 'India now trades at a premium of 75% to the EM Index—not too far from long-term averages of 61%.' Gupta added that while FIIs remain underweight on India for now, that positioning may not hold for long. 'We expect the flow rotation from China to India to start taking place soon, while overall intensity of FII selling is also likely to start coming down.' The weakness of the dollar and India's macro resilience have turned the country into a magnet for global capital. 'FIIs are positive on the India story,' said Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at PL Capital, 'but they remain cautious about high valuations.' With India still trading at a premium to its EM peers, foreign investors are zeroing in on quality names and sectors, steering clear of indiscriminate buying. Still, this doesn't look like hot money just passing through. The sustained inflows suggest conviction—especially in the face of tepid Q4 earnings and geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, struck a balanced note. 'The broad market performed well this month, driven by reduced tariff risks, a potential US-India trade deal, and strong FII inflows ,' he said. 'However, momentum is being capped by rising tensions between India and Pakistan and muted Q4 results. This negative bias is expected to persist in the near term... but the long-term outlook remains positive.' The Rs 37,600 crore question: Is this a lasting trend or just a tactical bet? For now, the smart money is betting on India—and not looking back.
