Latest news with #EnergyAspects
CNA
13 hours ago
- Business
- CNA
Saudi Arabia lowers July oil prices for Asia after OPEC+ supply boost
Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, on Wednesday lowered its July prices for Asian buyers after OPEC+ hiked output for a fourth month although the price cut was smaller than expected. Saudi Arabia's state firm Aramco cut the official selling price for the flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia for July to $1.20 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, 20 cents lower than June and the lowest since May. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia are raising output. Eight OPEC+ countries on Saturday agreed to another big increase of 411,000 bpd for July, having increased output by the same amount in May and June. However, Saudi Arabia's 20-cent price cut was smaller than the 40-cent to 50-cent reduction expected in a Reuters survey. "A smaller reduction was likely due to strong domestic crude burn in Saudi Arabia and refinery runs that could limit barrels available for export," said Richard Jones, an analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects. The Middle East typically burns crude and high-sulphur fuel oil for power between June and August, for the peak demand season. Analysts expected Saudi to burn more crude oil for power generation this summer. Saudi crude OSPs set the price trend for other grades exported by Iran, Kuwait and Iraq, affecting about 9 million barrels per day of crude bound for Asia. The tables below show the full free-on-board prices for June in U.S. dollars. Saudi term crude supplies to Asia are priced as a differential to the Oman/Dubai average: July June CHANGE SUPER LIGHT 1.75 1.95 -0.20 EXTRA LIGHT 1.00 1.20 -0.20 LIGHT 1.20 1.40 -0.20 MEDIUM 0.75 0.85 -0.10 HEAVY -0.30 -0.30 0 Prices at Ras Tanura destined for United States are set against ASCI: July June CHANGE EXTRA LIGHT 5.75 5.65 0.10 LIGHT 3.50 3.40 0.10 MEDIUM 3.50 3.50 0 HEAVY 3.05 3.05 0 Prices at Ras Tanura destined for Northwest Europe are set against ICE Brent: July June CHANGE EXTRA LIGHT 4.85 3.05 1.80 LIGHT 3.25 1.45 1.80 MEDIUM 2.45 0.65 1.80 HEAVY 0.05 -1.75 1.80 Prices at Ras Tanura for Saudi oil destined for the Mediterranean are set against ICE Brent: July June CHANGE EXTRA LIGHT 4.75 2.95 1.80 LIGHT 3.05 1.25 1.80 MEDIUM 2.45 0.65 1.80 HEAVY -0.25 -2.05 1.80
CNBC
3 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
OPEC+ hike 'priced in,' Energy Aspects says
The OPEC+ output hike is largely "priced in," says Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects.
Bloomberg
4 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Gallarati: Not a Bad Time for OPEC+ to Increase Production
Oil has been trading lower ahead of an OPEC+ meeting on output which is expected to lead to another supply hike. Livia Gallarati, Global Crude Lead at Energy Aspects told Bloomberg's Horizons Middle East and Africa anchor Joumanna Bercetche that the timing of the supply hike may be beneficial. (Source: Bloomberg)
Reuters
23-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Murban crude prices drop as OPEC+ raises output, prompting surge in volumes to Asia
SINGAPORE, May 23 (Reuters) - Spot premiums for Murban crude have hit six-month lows on surging supply as the United Arab Emirates ramps up output following OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production hikes and compete head-on with U.S. shale oil, traders and analysts said. Asian buyers are flocking to the flagship Abu Dhabi light grade on low prices, with a record 10 million barrels of Murban traded on the S&P Global Platts Market on Close (MoC) process this month. Cheap Murban crude is also squeezing U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil out of Asian markets. "Asian markets have been oversupplied with light grades for most of this cycle, driven by outages at Japanese refiners, increased UAE availability this cycle following the accelerated OPEC+ unwind, and planned maintenance at Saudi Arabia's Petro Rabigh refinery," said Richard Jones, a crude oil analyst at Energy Aspects. "Dubai had effectively become a light benchmark this cycle," he added. Murban became the cheapest among a handful of medium-sour crude grades that can be delivered during the Platts MoC process that sets the Dubai benchmark price, market sources said, leading to record deliveries on the platform this month. Price weakness in the grade that accounts for two-thirds of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co's ( production is weighing on the Middle East benchmark that prices more than 14 million barrels per day of exports to Asia. OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to increase production by nearly 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, May and June, with UAE's production rising to 3.09 million bpd in June from 3.02 million bpd in May. ADNOC expects Murban exports to exceed 1.7 million bpd in June through August, up from 1.65 million bpd in May, according to an April report on the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi (IFAD) website where Murban futures are traded. ADNOC declined to comment on Murban production and export volumes. A source with knowledge of the production plan said Murban output will rise by 200,000 bpd to a record 2.1 million bpd in July. IFAD Murban futures fell below $60 per barrel in early May for the first time since the contract started trading in 2021. The average spot premium for July-loading Murban slipped to $1.19 per barrel this month, the lowest in six months, making Murban cheaper than heavier grades such as Qatar's al-Shaheen whose term price was set at a premium of $1.63 a barrel and Oman whose premium averaged $1.37 so far this month. Heavier grades are typically cheaper than light ones as they produce more residue. The switch in pricing is partly driven by record fuel oil margins, said June Goh, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities. A record 20 Murban cargoes have been delivered in the Platts MoC process so far this month, S&P Global said. PetroChina ( opens new tab is the biggest buyer this month, with trading house Vitol ( delivering most of the cargoes, trade data showed. Japan, Thailand, India and China are Asia's top Murban buyers. Meanwhile, U.S. WTI is landing about $1 per barrel more expensive than Murban into Asia for August delivery, Sparta's Goh said, deterring Asian buyers from taking more U.S. light oil.
Zawya
08-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Oil market 'smile' suggests Saudi Arabia's output shift was well timed
LONDON: The oil market appears to be telling Saudi Arabia that its shift to pumping more oil after five years of cutting output was well timed. The kingdom has in recent weeks pushed fellow OPEC+ members to produce more oil despite fears about an economic slowdown, a marked change in policy that helped oil prices settle at a four-year low on Monday. But despite OPEC+ agreeing to raise output by a cumulative near one million barrels per day (bpd) between April and June, the oil market is still reflecting a perception of tight supply over the next few months of peak summer demand. That has pushed the futures curve, which reflects forward prices, into a rare "smile" shape, a structure Morgan Stanley analysts said was last seen only briefly in February 2020. Brent futures' most prompt July contract was trading at a 74 cent per barrel premium to the October contract late on Wednesday, a market structure known as backwardation, which indicates immediate tight supply. However, from November, prompt prices flip to a discount to forward prices, a structure known as contango, indicating oversupply and the likelihood that summer 2025 might be the last gasp of a tight oil market. Having backwardation and contango together is unusual and gives the chart its "smile". Energy Aspects analyst Richard Price said the structure was a result of tight prompt supply coupled with expectations of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade wars slowing economic activity later in the year. OPEC+ cited low stocks and healthy prompt demand when it agreed on Saturday to raise output for July. Global oil inventories stood near the bottom of their historical five-year range at 7.647 billion barrels, according to the International Energy Agency's latest available data for February, down from 7.709 billion barrels a year earlier. Meanwhile, refiners' appetite for crude is rising ahead of the July-August peak driving season. "Refinery maintenance in the Atlantic basin will start to taper off, increasing oil demand (for refining)... Summer driving should provide some support," BNP Paribas analyst Aldo Spanjer said. Global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 from the second quarter to average 104.51 million bpd, the IEA said in its latest report in April. The 1 million bpd increases already announced by OPEC+ and the possibility of a further 0.4 million barrels per day in July, almost fully match the predicted rise in demand. HIGHER SUPPLY OUTLOOK OPEC's decision to add more barrels to the market did change the shape of the 'smile', but the fact that the structure did not flip into contango reflects a balance between supply and demand, said an executive at a major trading house. At the start of last week, eight consecutive monthly Brent contracts were backwardated through to January 2026, double the current four. The four-month Brent spread was more than twice as wide at $1.85 a barrel. Outside of OPEC+, new projects coming online in Brazil and Guyana should boost supply towards the end of 2025, the IEA said in its monthly report in April. Robust supply growth combined with slowing demand would result in a rapid market weakening towards the end of 2025, Morgan Stanley said. (Reporting by Robert Harvey, additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar and Dmitry Zhdannikov, editing by Alex Lawler and Kirsten Donovan)
