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a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Montana's Flathead Lake unlikely to reach full pool as snowpack, streamflow forecasts decrease
Flathead Lake is predicted to have low water levels this summer due to warm, dry conditions and a rapid meltout of the region's snowpack. (Photo by the Flathead Lake Biological Station of the University of Montana) Flathead Lake is not expected to reach its full pool this summer and may end up more than a foot lower than normal within a month, due to abnormally hot and dry conditions in the region. That's according to Energy Keepers Inc., the corporation operating the Se̓liš Ksanka Qĺispe̓ (SKQ) Dam on behalf of the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes. 'Unseasonably warm and dry conditions have significantly decreased water supply in the Flathead River Basin, and spring runoff is quickly receding, bringing river flows to extremely low levels,' according to an Energy Keepers press release. Current forecasts show the lake will reach a maximum of around 2,892.3 feet by June 19, and then begin to slowly recede. Full pool for the lake is 2,893 feet. With expectations of a potentially low water year, SKQ dam operators worked with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers this spring to raise the maximum water level required for flood control in order to capture as much spring runoff in the lake as possible. But despite the change, 'the melted snow remaining will not get Flathead Lake to full pool.' 'Our goal was to coordinate actions to increase the chance of refill as early as possible while balancing needs for flood risk management; however, it's also important to understand how much weather influences refill Pacific Northwest Lakes and reservoirs,' said Leah Hamilton, Northwestern Division Reservoir Control Center water regulator with the U.S. Army Corps. 'Every water year is different, and there is a lot of uncertainty in trying to accurately predict runoff several months into the future.' Dam operators have maintained the minimum flows allowed in the dam's Federal Energy Regulatory Commission operating license since May 26. According to a water supply forecast for Montana published last week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resource Conservation Science, warmer than normal temperatures throughout May 'spurred rapid snowmelt across the state,' a drastic shift from what forecasters were predicting earlier this year. 'Fast snowmelt and earlier than normal runoff in the month of May rapidly decreased snowpack statewide. This potentially corresponds to less available water later in the summer,' said Florence Miller, a hydrologist with NRCS. 'Water supply forecasts decreased from 70%-110% of normal streamflow forecasted for most of the state on May 1, to 50%-100% of streamflow forecasted on June 1.' In the Flathead River Basin, snow water equivalent — the measure of how much water is contained in a snowpack — is just 59% of average for the beginning of June, compared to 83% at this time last year. The Kootenai River Basin is at 49%, the Upper Clark Fork at 65%, the Jefferson at 66% and the Upper Yellowstone at 63%. The Bitterroot Basin is at just 27% of normal, also due to a rapidly melting snowpack. 'While much of our winter's snowpack has rapidly melted, a transition to cooler weather could help prolong the remaining snowpack and improve summer streamflow later in the season. Alternatively, a continuation of the hot, dry weather would continue the rapid runoff of this season's snowpack and further reduce summer streamflow outlooks,' the report states. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, conditions have worsened across much of the state over the last month. Compared to 2024, when 56% of the state was classified as experiencing drought, this year 82% of the state is experiencing drought conditions. 'Above normal precipitation during June is needed across the entire state,' the report states. Brian Lipscomb, CEO of Energy Keepers, said the forecasted drought conditions for the remainder of the year, combined with several years of hot and dry weather, will bring cumulative impacts to Flathead Lake and those reliant on it — including Energy Keepers. 'These unprecedented dry conditions are not only taxing on resources, they are also extremely impactful to generation of energy from the SKQ facility,' said Lipscomb in a press release. 'Electricity generation from the SKQ facility will be 10 percent below normal for this year, add that to the two years that we have just experienced, and this will put us at 393 GWh of electricity generation below normal.' That is enough electricity to power a city the size of Missoula for a year, according to Lipscomb. Low water conditions are expected throughout the region. Lake Koocanusa, formed by the Libby Dam on the Kootenai River, is currently forecast to have a water supply around 72% of average this summer, while Hungry Horse Reservoir, south of Glacier National Park, is forecasting a water supply around 75% of normal. 'It's a larger system, it's not just us,' said Rob McDonald, spokesperson for Energy Keepers and the CSKT. 'But (Flathead Lake) is what people care about, which we understand … The lake is the center of the community.' Since severe drought conditions in 2023 led to record-low levels of Flathead Lake, Energy Keepers has worked to provide more frequent communications on weather and water forecasts and how they may impact dam operations and lake levels. 'Our goal is to push out information as quickly as possible so people can respond accordingly and manage what they need to manage,' McDonald said. 'But we are in year three of the warmest, driest three consecutive years on record. Let that sink in. Three driest, warmest years ever recorded.' The 2023 drought led to conversations at the local, state and federal level about management of water resources in Montana. During the 2025 legislative session, Montana Senate President Matt Regier, R-Kalispell, who represents a portion of the Flathead Valley, introduced a resolution supporting recreation on Flathead Lake, and encouraging decision makers to consider that aspect of use in management actions. Regier said hearing about drought conditions and the potential lower lake levels early in the year makes a difference. He said many people felt caught off guard in 2023, raising questions of whether mismanagement of the lake was part of the equation. An investigation by FERC found no problems with management of SKQ dam in 2023. 'I get it, if water is scarce, I get that,' Regier told the Daily Montanan. 'If this is a year that's more drought than usual, we have to talk about how do we balance tourism, economics, and recreation of Flathead Lake in the whole conversation.' 'When there's just no water, snowpack's down, it's a drought year, I think more people can understand that,' he said. Daily Montanan, like the Idaho Capital Sun, is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Daily Montanan maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Darrell Ehrlick for questions: info@
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Flathead Lake water level likely will fall below full pool this summer
Jun. 5—Flathead Lake will not reach full pool this summer, the agency that operates the SKQ Dam said on Thursday. Current forecasts suggest the lake will reach a maximum level of 2,892.3 feet on June 19, according to a press release issued by Energy Keepers, which manages the dam at the lake's southern end. Full pool during the summer months is typically 2,893 feet. Energy Keepers blamed unseasonably warm and dry weather for the deficit. While snowpack reached average levels during the winter and early spring, recent temperature spikes caused rapid snowmelt. As of June 1, snowpack in the Flathead Basin was 59% of median. Dam operators implemented a drought management plan in early spring, including provisions to minimize outflows and retain greater volumes of spring runoff in the lake. On May 26, the lake was at the highest capacity allowed under the drought management plan. Still, Leah Hamilton, the water regulator for the federal Northwestern Division Reservoir Control Center, said the atypical weather conditions will make reaching full pool difficult, even with corrective measures. "Our goal was to coordinate actions to increase the chance of refill as early as possible while balancing needs for flood risk management," Hamilton said in a statement. "However, it's also important to understand how much weather influences refill in Pacific Northwest lakes and reservoirs. Every water year is different, and there is a lot of uncertainty in trying to accurately predict runoff several months into the future." Energy Keepers currently predicts that the water level will reach a summertime low of 2,891.5 feet on July 12. This summer marks the third year in a row that the Flathead Valley has experienced elevated temperatures and low precipitation. The National Oceanic and Atmoshperic Administration predicts that the hot and dry trend will continue through September. In the June 5 press release, Energy Keepers advised lake users that the low water level might affect boat storage and dock access, though public boat ramps are expected to remain accessible. Hydroelectric energy generation will also be affected, with the SKQ dam expected to produce 10% less energy than normal this year. The summer lake level last fell below full pool in 2023 when a spat of warm spring weather caused an early snowmelt and reduced the availability of water during the summer months. Despite the low water level, the SKQ Dam continued some outflows from the lake to meet federal energy quotas and ensure healthy downstream conditions. While that decision drew sharp criticisms from many lakeshore residents, allegations of mismanagement were later dismissed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. But several state and federal lawmakers continue to push for stricter management of the lake's water level during the summer months. U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke reintroduced the Fill the Lake Act early in the Legislative session. The bill proposes keeping Flathead Lake's water level between 2,892 and 2,893 feet between June 15 and Sept. 15. Those levels are already codified through a 1965 Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, but Zinke argued that additional legislation is necessary to prevent what he called a "another failure of management that leads to another catastrophically low pool." The bill has not yet been scheduled for a hearing. Sen. Matt Regier, R-Kalispell, also successfully carried a resolution in the state Legislature, asking federal officials to "ensure that recreation needs [on Flathead Lake] be measured fairly compared to hydropower, fish and irrigation demands." The resolution does not change any laws or policies, but a copy of the missive will be sent to key stakeholders in the lake's management as a show of the Legislature's position. In the press release, Energy Keepers confirmed that it will continue to provide updated forecasts of the lake level through June and July. Interested parties can view current and past forecasts at Reporter Hailey Smalley may be reached at 758-4433 or hsmalley@
