Latest news with #Enso-neutral
Otago Daily Times
01-06-2025
- Climate
- Otago Daily Times
A warmer winter is on its way
Electricity bills may deliver less of a hammering this winter if Niwa's outlook for the next few months comes to fruition. It shows temperatures from June to August are "very likely" to be warmer than average this winter, meaning fewer cold snaps and frosts than usual. Niwa National Climate Centre forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said El Nino Southern Oscillation (Enso) conditions in the tropical Pacific remained neutral at present, but there were "residual signals" that indicated weak La Nina conditions were persisting. Occasional La Nina-like atmospheric patterns might still emerge over the next three months, he said. "However, international guidance indicates about a 70% chance for the tropical Pacific to remain in an Enso-neutral state over the next three-month period." He said higher-than-normal atmospheric pressure was expected to the east of the country, leading to northeasterly flow anomalies that might shift to a more northwesterly direction towards the end of the three-month period. That means seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average across all New Zealand regions for the winter season. "While cold snaps and frosts will occur, they are expected to be less frequent than usual." On the West Coast, Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago, and Southland, temperatures were very likely to be above average, he said. Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal. Temperatures were also very likely to be above average along coastal Otago, he said. "Rainfall totals are most likely to be in the near normal range, and soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or above normal." Mr Brandolino said for the remainder of the calendar year, Enso-neutral conditions were expected to persist. "The guidance available, however, suggests the possibility for La Nina conditions to return by summer 2025-2026." La Nina can bring more northeasterly winds to New Zealand, leading to drier conditions in the south and southwest of the South Island.
Otago Daily Times
02-05-2025
- Climate
- Otago Daily Times
Above average temperatures predicted for winter with less snow on the slopes
While many southerners may be rubbing their hands together with glee at news that temperatures are "very likely" to be warmer than average over the next three months, others — namely skiers and snowboarders — may not be so pleased. Niwa National Climate Centre forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said weather patterns were in an Enso-neutral state, where neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions were present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. That meant there would be fewer cooler winds from the south-to-southwest, and more warmer north-to-northwest winds. He said the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures around the country at present, would contribute to that. "That's important because as an island nation, basically, if our ocean temperatures are running warmer than average, it's really difficult to get any sustained cold snaps. "Cold snaps can happen, but it makes it a lot more difficult." On the West Coast, the Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago, and Southland, temperatures were "very likely" to be above average over the next three months, he said. Rainfall totals and soil moisture levels were about equally likely to be near normal or below normal, and river flows were most likely to be near normal. In coastal Otago, temperatures were likely to be above average. Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows were about equally likely to be near normal or above normal along the coast. "I think people will probably notice that it's warmer than it should be in June, or it's warmer than it should be in July — that sort of thing. "It doesn't mean it will be warmer every day. "I think a factor in that is the overnight temperatures may be a little bit warmer than usual." Mr Brandolino said an impact of the warmer airflows was there would be fewer frosts and less snow on the skifields. "It probably doesn't bode well for skiers and snowboarders. "As you go toward Queenstown and as you go toward the Main Divide itself and the western part of the South Island, there is a dry lean. "So between the potential of a reduction of precipitation and the warmer-than-average temperatures, I think the odds of a really good snow year probably seems more unlikely, than likely." The upside was lower power bills, he said. "Maybe people will be able to run their heaters a bit less, or maybe less frequently."
The Star
25-04-2025
- Climate
- The Star
Climate change and freak weather
Dark skies: Malaysia is currently undergoing the inter-monsoon period until May. — SAMUEL ONG/The Star PETALING JAYA: Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are normal during the inter-monsoon season but this time, the weather has been far more vicious. Weather experts say climate change and a warming planet could be the reasons for these violent thunderstorms. While the pattern is normal, the thunderstorms may be more extreme due to the influence of global warming and climate change, said climatologist Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang. 'Last year, the global mean temperature exceeded the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C threshold,' he noted. 'With this kind of warming, we have more moisture in the air and, together with increasing heat, thunderstorms and heavy rainfalls can become stronger and more frequent.' He pointed out that with the country undergoing the inter- monsoon period between now and May, thunderstorms and heavy rainfall episodes are typical, especially in the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia, during this period. 'This can cause more flash floods,' he added. CLICK TO ENLARGE Tangang, who is also an Academy of Sciences Malaysia Fellow, also noted that the Pacific region is at the Enso-neutral phase, meaning there are no anomalous conditions such as El Nino or La Nina. 'We don't expect any significant influence from the Pacific Ocean during the Enso-neutral phase,' he said. According to National Antarctica Research Centre climatologist Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah, heavy rainfall usually occurs along the west coast during pre-dawn. He said the recent violent storms could be due to the formation of cumulonimbus clouds, which are driven to the coastal areas by the westerly wind in the early morning. Azizan added, however, that it is difficult to say if the current weather in the country is out of the ordinary despite the Pacific ocean being at the Enso-neutral phase. On the increasing flash floods in the Klang Valley, he said this is also due to rapid urbanisation, which results in increased surface run-off. Meanwhile, MetMalaysia has issued a statement that the inter-monsoon phase started on March 25, marking the end of the northeast monsoon period. The inter-monsoon period, it explained, usually brings sudden burst of winds and heavy showers during the late evening and night.
