Latest news with #EpistrophyCapitalResearch
Yahoo
07-04-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Auto tariffs: How used car prices will be impacted
The automotive industry is under pressure amid the broader tariff-fueled market sell-off. Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank US autos analyst, joins Market Domination to chat with Epistrophy Capital Research's chief market strategist and host of "The Drill Down Podcast" Cory Johnson to discuss how tariffs will affect used car prices. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. What does this mean for the used car market? Number one, uh, but number two, is there a bifurcation in the used car market where the vehicles that are facing higher tariffs and higher increases in the, um, uh, the new cars will pass over to the used cars. Will my used Porsche, uh, garner a much higher price than a used Porsche, than a used Ford or something? Yes. So, prices are going up. Uh, we've done a tremendous amount of math around some scenarios. I mean, you're probably looking at anywhere from, you know, 5% to even 15%. Now, will the consumer absorb all that hit? Probably not, right? As an OEM, you're probably going to absorb some of it. Dealers have pretty good, decent margins. They may take some of the hit. So what is the net impact, the net margin, uh, net price increase? It's, it's a bit tricky to say, but, but I think you're looking at something at least at least 5%. And so if new car prices go up, domestic vehicles Yes. But I'm saying is a used, is a used German car, purely German car, or whatever, that is going to face the highest tariffs, are those used vehicles going to also increase at a double digit rate? Yes. Yeah, yeah. I think, I mean, if you look at historically, right, you know, new, new car prices go up, um, I think it would drag up, and especially in this case, used car prices. I don't know if it will happen all, you know, in sequential order, right? Because you're going to see a big surge in demand right for the next month or so. And you've seen Ford, GM, Stellantis, some of these auto makers come out with some discounts. So, it, I don't know if your Porsche is going to go up immediately that much, but I think over time it will absolutely appreciate. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's tariff policy could be economic misconduct. Here's why.
Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Rick Newman joins Market Domination Overtime with Yahoo Finance Head of News Myles Udland, RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas, and Epistrophy Capital Research chief market strategist and host of "The Drill Down" podcast Cory Johnson to make the case that Trump's tariffs constitute malpractice in the president's own metaphor that the US economy is the patient. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. Right, if a surgeon operates needlessly on a patient, it's medical malpractice. So if a policy maker destroys value, endangers livelihoods and lowers living standards is that economic malpractice? Joining us now to make the case is Yahoo finances, Rick Newman, Rick. It's economic malpractice on an unprecedented scale. Would like to say hello to Joe Barcelos there. How are you doing, man? Hey Rick, good to see you. This is this, so what President Trump said yesterday using this medical metaphor is one of the most idiotic and regrettable things that any president will ever say in American history. Just to remind people who might have missed it. Trump said referring to his tariffs, "The operation is over, the patient lived and is healing. The patient will be far stronger, better and more resilient than ever before." This is complete nonsense. So just to break this down, number one Trump says, the patient, the US economy was sick and in need of surgery. That is false. The US economy was doing well before Trump took office. Now it now it actually is sick because of Trump and the patient is not doing well. The patient is hemorrhaging. That is what is happening in markets and markets are only foretelling what is going to happen in the real economy. There is only one person in the world who doesn't realize what a disaster this is and that is Donald Trump. There might be a second person I, you could finger which is Peter Navarro, his trade advisor, and as you guys were discussing before, who might be the fall guy for this? If there's anybody I think it might be Peter Navarro uh who already went to prison once on Donald Trump's behalf and might uh take the pain again. We can only hope that that is what Trump does, that he finds a scapegoat and says this was all somebody else's idea. I'm calling the whole thing off because if he doesn't, as Joe and basically every other economist in the world knows, this is a nightmare. Rick uh you uh made the case of what the president, how the president has messed up, but he has made the case that we've been being ripped off by the terrorist. Other countries have been charging us uh and uh I don't know if you've made the case that every country out there that we are now charging terrorists too that the American consumers will be paying for, have been ripping us off. But isn't it the case that some countries have been ripping us off? I don't think so. Um I think some countries have been cheating on trade. I mean I think there are are a lot of people who would say yes, China cheats on trade uh it uses a government run economy to subsidize the big uh state-owned enterprises and other things like that. Yes, we we do have a problem with people and communities that used to rely on uh good paying manufacturing jobs that aren't there. But blowing up the whole economy is not the solution. Uh you know, to go back to the to the medical metaphor. Uh you don't, you don't operate on the entire body from head to toe to put, fix a pimple or something. I mean, address the problem in a targeted way and there are tons of ideas for how to address these problems in targeted ways. There are ways to crack down on Chinese cheating, other countries do it as well, um it's too too complicated to get into in one segment but to do you know there are many ways you can do that. Uh the places that we need better paying jobs for people in America who do not have college educations, there are also many ways to address that problem. We need more trades people. That is not assembly line workers making socks that we don't want to pay for in America. It is people, it's plumbers and welders that we need to do jobs that are good paying jobs. Many companies need skilled workers that they can't get enough of and they're trying to line up with local government and state governments and say here are the types of workers we need, can we get these people in the in the in the pipeline to get these skills? All these types of things. Do that kind of stuff. Why make everybody 25 or 30% poorer in order to bring back to bring back 100,000 auto maker jobs? This is this is insane. All right, so the late great Herb Stein used to tell us that if something bad goes on long enough, it usually comes to an end. How do we get out of this, Rick? What's what's what's the way forward? Well Joe, I mean you would be the one who could put numbers on this. Um if Trump were to reverse this quickly, we could get out of it without too much damage, but the longer this, these, these tariffs stay in effect, um the more this damage becomes irreversible. I mean you know to go back to the metaphor. Trump is not going to kill the patient, he can't kill the whole US economy. Um thank god. I mean the US economy will survive all of this in some form. Uh but we're going to survive with less. Well, I mean this is demand destruction and value destruction. You you don't just automatically get it back if it stays in place long enough. So um I don't know. I mean this this is a real test of um how responsive the political system actually can be when you when you have a man-made crisis on your hands, and much of this is unprecedented. I mean, Trump has figured out that um he has he doesn't have to answer to anybody on tariffs. He he he doesn't, he knows that he doesn't have to run for re-election unless he tries to, so he doesn't have to answer to voters in that way. So um we are in a predicament here uh and this all comes down to how hard headed is Trump actually going to be. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Market sell-off: This feels like late 2007, economist says
President Trump's tariffs have sent the equity markets into a tailspin. But RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas is warning investors that the situation reminds him of late 2007, early 2008, when hedge funds started to implode. Hear his reasons and what Epistrophy Capital Research Chief Market Strategist Cory Johnson has to say in the video above. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. You know, I know it's fanciful to draw parallels to the early pandemic, but I'm going to pull rank in age here. No. What this feels like is 2000 late 2007, early 20008, when the hedge funds started to blow up in housing. Because what we're seeing is the systemic risk is it before the banks went. That's right. What we're seeing here is the mag 7 in Big Tech, and it just feels like we got a lot more ways to go. Remember, we did not get through that point until the backstop was put in. Here's the thing. Someone's going to have to come in and backstop this at one point for it to stop, whether it's Warren Buffett, or whether somebody's going to find an off-ramp over at the White House. One of those two things going to happen. So commentary from the White House, a big buyer saying I'm buying, Yep. which probably isn't going to happen. Yeah. Um, someone in the White House who's got a view different than the president's. That's right. There isn't anyone in the White House who has a view different than the president's. Well, I think they don't I don't agree with that. I think they do, but there's someone's going to have to go fall on a sword and take the abuse from the president to tell them, President, it's time to take the off ramp. There's going to be burgers on the wall this weekend. There there is going to be Yeah. Joe, just quickly on that point, so is the grossing affair characterization of what this market feels like? Just lots of taps on the shoulders, say, hey, you got to get out of this. You got to I don't care. You get out of it. Get out of it. Yeah, you need right now is about preservation of capital. When you get a vote of no confidence by the market in a major government policy, it needs that that need condition needs to come to an end because no one's going to win if it continues. But this isn't like when the market tanked in the face of a government shutdown and I agree. It is not. That was a one day thing. Yeah. And that that looked like the market saying, we're going to show you this is a bad idea. And and and the White House turned it around. That's not this. This is something else. Well, we're going to have to figure out what this is. Well, I mean, yeah, what I hear you guys saying is like, no no one out there right now has a good reason to buy or buy more or say, I want to I want to get longer or whatever. There's no reason. Look, this is not the great rotation. What people were talking about earlier this morning. No, this is something else. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Amazon's New Product Could Be 'the Next Big Thing,' Veteran Investor Says
Amazon's (AMZN) new AI-driven shopping assistant could be "the next big thing" for the tech giant, Cory Johnson, Epistrophy Capital Research's Chief Market Strategist, told Schwab Network yesterday. Moreover, it's too early to count Amazon out of the competition to develop the best overall AI assistant, Johnson stated. A customer entering an internet retail store, illustrating the convenience of online shopping. The Shopping Assistant Is an Opportunity for AMZN, Johnson Says Amazon's recently unveiled shopping assistant, called Interests, will help users find products that align with their tastes, needs and economic status, the company stated. According to Johnson, the tool could meaningfully boost Amazon's revenue and enable it to connect users to its products more effectively. So even though the tech giant develops many offerings that don't survive for more than a year, Interests could be a positive needle mover for AMZN, Johnson reported. Alexa Could Make a Comeback Noting that Amazon's Alexa assistant has fallen behind Apple's (AAPL) Siri in many respects, AI-powered Alexa+, which is expected to be launched soon, could close the gap, the investor stated. "Do not count Amazon out of the AI competition," Johnson advised. While we acknowledge the potential of AMZN as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is as promising as AMZN but trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires Disclosure: The author owns shares of AMZN but has no intention of trading them in the next 48 hours. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
21-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Focusing on tariffs 'misses the point,' this strategist says
BNP Paribas Asset Management chief market strategist Daniel Morris tells Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton, joined by Epistrophy Capital Research chief market strategist and The Drill Down podcast host Cory Johnson, that focusing only on tariffs "misses the point," highlighting that the market (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) expects a soft landing for the economy in 2025. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Well markets point to muted action after another volatile week on Wall Street, and our next guest says the economy's soft landing is what's really behind the weakness so far this year. Joining us now is Daniel Morris, BNP Asset Management Chief Market Strategist, and with us for the hour, of course the one and only, Corey Johnson, Pistrophy Capital Chief Market Strategist and host of the Drill Down podcast. Welcome to you both. Uh, Dan, uh start with you here on the markets and I thought, Dan, your comments are interesting, you look at the market action this year, Dan, and you say, in your opinion, this has really been about much more about the macro, it's about the slowing growth more than the tariffs, Dan. Walk us through that, 'cause we can't tell you we had a lot of strategists on really the word so far we hear over and over again point, you know, focus, the attention has been on tariffs. Why do you say that? Well I think that misses a point, and that's important, because if you're not analyzing what's really going on in the market currently I think you then miss what might come next. So think back to what we thought was going to be the outlook for 2025 before the election, and the word we kept repeating over and over of course was "soft landing." Uh, so that meant growth was supposed to slow. Uh, inflation then would come back down towards target, and then the Fed cuts rates, and we were all gonna be quite happy. Now we perhaps got a bit distracted by what happened subsequently with the election, of course the markets are pricing in what it anticipated as pro-growth policies from Trump, but we've got to remember there's a sequencing effect here. Uh, if that happens, it's not going to be right away. You know, you need time for these things to filter through for the economy. Economy's going to continue doing essentially what it was going to do, and I think it's that soft landing that we anticipated. So, from that point of view, we shouldn't be surprised. That's what we thought was going to happen, and I think fundamentally that's the key thing that's behind the market. Of course, tariffs come on top of that, but the key point I think is the soft landing. But it is a softer landing than anticipated by many. I mean, you're looking at GDP forecast that a lot of places are revising lower, and many are attributing that to the sort of survey data that we've gotten, the weakening, sort of confidence, in part. Yeah, I guess I again kinda question the analysis that's going on there. So if we go back to the growth that we had at the end of last year, 2.8% if you look at core core GDP, and well above trend we expected that to go down, right? That's all part of that picture. Towards two-ish, let's say. So we're kind of going in that direction anyway. I think some of the numbers that you see in the calculations of the GDP now are a function of the surge in imports you had ahead of the tariffs, so that does have a mathematical impact on the GDP calculation. But if a lot of those imports just end up in inventories, you'll more or less see an offset in the GDP calculation when the figures come out. So I still think we're looking at a two-handle for GDP for the first quarter. We'll see. Not an economist. No predictions on what's going to come out.
