Latest news with #ErasmusUniversity
The Guardian
3 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
The Guardian view on Zambia's Trumpian predicament: US aid cuts are dwarfed by a far bigger heist
Donald Trump's decision to cut $50m a year in aid to Zambia – one of the world's poorest nations – is dreadful, and the reason given, corruption, rings hollow. There is evidence of large-scale looting, but the real scandal is that the theft appears legal, systemic and driven by foreign interests. In a paper presented to the Association for Heterodox Economics conference in London later this month, Andrew Fischer of Erasmus University Rotterdam argues that Zambia's economy is not being plundered by domestic actors but rather by transnational corporate practices enabled by opaque accounting. His findings point to a staggering extraction of wealth that dwarfs the value of the aid intended to help. Zambia is blessed – or perhaps cursed – with mineral wealth. It is Africa's second-largest copper producer. The metal, key to the green energy transition, accounts for around 70% of the country's export earnings. Despite this, in 2020 Zambia became Africa's first pandemic-era defaulter. It has only just agreed a debt restructuring with major creditors. How did a nation so rich in natural resources become so poor? Prof Fischer says this is a textbook example of a low-income commodity exporter shaped by foreign capital, where export booms enrich multinationals rather than the country itself. In Zambia's case, copper may bring in foreign exchange, but much of that money simply flows straight back out. His most striking discovery is the scale and concealment of capital flight. He uncovered billions flowing out of Zambia, hidden in its balance-of-payments data. These were not flagged as 'errors and omissions' but obscured in entries considered too elaborate to probe. In 2021 alone, $5bn – about 20% of GDP – vanished offshore, just as Zambia was defaulting on its debt. This was in addition to profit remittances of $1.2bn. In contrast, US annual grant aid amounted to just $250m, or 1% of Zambia's GDP. It's a sobering difference between a trickle of assistance against a torrent of extraction. Prof Fischer links the outflows to mining giants dominating Zambia's economy. These firms invested billions from abroad to fund operations, but the money left almost as soon as it arrived. What looked like foreign direct investment during last decade's mining boom masked a deeper drain: profits repatriated through financial outflows. The numbers are extraordinarily large for Zambia: more than $5bn in 2012, $3bn in 2015, and nearly $2bn in 2017. These private sector flows were beyond public scrutiny. Mining companies have long been accused of dodging taxes in Zambia. In 2018 the tax authorities slapped an $8bn tax bill on the Canadian mining company First Quantum Minerals, which later reportedly settled for $23m. Glencore, an Anglo-Swiss giant, left the country in 2021 after falling out with the authorities. Yet in 2023 half of Zambia's copper was exported to Switzerland – that is, bought and sold by Swiss commodity traders like Glencore. Academics Rita Kesselring and Gregor Dobler noted in 2019 that such firms exploit transfer pricing and a lack of transparency to shift profits abroad. Prof Fischer's research similarly points to legal mechanisms embedded in world commerce. He concedes that some outflows may involve wealthy Zambians, but questions whether they could move funds on this scale and complexity. His research exposes a form of wilful blindness. If transnational corporations can legally strip Zambia of its wealth while donors look the other way, then the real scandal isn't theft. It's the global economic system itself.
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What Is the Hemline Index, and Is It an Accurate Recession Indicator?
The 'hemline index' is one of those economic theories that never quite disappears. Popularized in the 20th century, it claims a correlation between skirt lengths and the stock market: shorter hemlines in boom times, longer ones in downturns. Over time, this idea evolved into a broader suggestion: Fashion reflects the health of the economy. But it's far from straightforward. Read Next: Find Out: In today's world, the idea that hemlines act as a reliable economic barometer may be out of step with reality. Also see five alarming signs you're not ready for a recession. The hemline index is often linked to George Taylor, a Wharton economist in the 1920s. He's widely credited with observing a link between rising skirt lengths and rising markets, but the story is more complicated, as he never actually linked skirt lengths to economic cycles. His 1929 Ph.D. thesis examined the rapid growth of the hosiery industry in the 1920s, according to InStyle, identifying shorter skirts as one reason women were buying more stockings, not as a signal of economic change. Over time it's been oversimplified and reshaped into a so-called market indicator that's been repeated in headlines, books and investment commentary. Be Aware: In theory, the idea makes some sense: When the economy is strong, fashion might be more 'daring,' while economic downturns bring more conservative styles. In practice, the pattern isn't quite as consistent. A 2023 study by researchers at Erasmus University Rotterdam tested the theory against real economic data and found that while there is a relationship between hemlines and the economy, it runs on a delay. It found that skirt lengths tend to change about three years after the economy does. An earlier study from 2015 had similar results, though with a four-year time lag. That suggests longer skirts may reflect a previous downturn, not a coming one. The hemline index is certainly a fun story, but is it a genuine forecasting tool? While some studies have looked into the relationship between skirt lengths and economic conditions, they suggest influence, not a true economic indicator, which is data used to assess or predict economic performance. It makes sense that economic conditions might shape what people buy and wear, but that doesn't make skirt lengths a reliable signal for what markets will do next. Real economic insight comes from actual data, not what's trending on the runway. More From GOBankingRates Clever Ways To Save Money That Actually Work in 2025 Sources InStyle, 'Is the Hemline Index Actually Real?' Erasmus University Rotterdam, 'The Hemline index: true or false?' Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles, 'Does Economy Dictate Hemline Move? Verification of the Hemline Theory.' This article originally appeared on What Is the Hemline Index, and Is It an Accurate Recession Indicator? Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
11-05-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Being overweight as a young child could double risk of adult obesity, research shows
Being overweight as a young child could double the risk of being obese in adulthood, according to research. Academics from the Netherlands said the body mass index (BMI) of six-year-olds is the most reliable predictor of obesity in adulthood and the first five years are critical in preventing weight gain. The study tracked the BMI of thousands of children in the Netherlands at age two, six, 10, 14 and 18, and found that every one-unit increase in BMI at age six more than doubled a child's odds of being overweight or obese at 18. The research, presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Málaga, also found overweight children who reached a healthier weight before they turned six were no longer at higher risk of being overweight or obese in their late teens. But if they lost weight after that age, they still had an elevated chance. Of the 3,528 young people, 32.3% were considered overweight or obese at age two, with 22.3% at age six, 24.7% at age 10 and 20.6% at age 14. Many of these children were still classed as overweight or obese at 18. Jasmin de Groot, of Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, said: 'We need to understand how children grow and develop if we are to help future generations grow up healthier and give every child a chance at a happy, healthy life.' She added: 'The first five years of a child's life provide a fantastic opportunity to intervene and prevent them experiencing overweight and obesity in the years to come.' Related: Children as young as two treated for obesity-related illness in England Separate research by the University of Bristol presented at the congress found the number of overweight teenagers in England has increased by 50%, from 22% in 2008-2010 to 33% in 2021-2023. Lead researcher Dr Dinesh Giri, consultant paediatric endocrinologist at Bristol Royal Hospital for Children, said: 'Over the past 15 years, obesity in adolescents has risen significantly due to a combination of increased consumption of ultra-processed foods, sedentary lifestyles driven by excessive screen time, inadequate sleep, and rising mental health challenges. 'Additionally, reduced opportunities for physical activity and socioeconomic disparities have further contributed to an environment that promotes unhealthy lifestyles.'
The Guardian
11-05-2025
- Health
- The Guardian
Being overweight as a young child could double risk of adult obesity, research shows
Being overweight as a young child could double the risk of being obese in adulthood, according to research. Academics from the Netherlands said the body mass index (BMI) of six-year-olds is the most reliable predictor of obesity in adulthood and the first five years are critical in preventing weight gain. The study tracked the BMI of thousands of children in the Netherlands at age two, six, 10, 14 and 18, and found that every one-unit increase in BMI at age six more than doubled a child's odds of being overweight or obese at 18. The research, presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Málaga, also found overweight children who reached a healthier weight before they turned six were no longer at higher risk of being overweight or obese in their late teens. But if they lost weight after that age, they still had an elevated chance. Of the 3,528 young people, 32.3% were considered overweight or obese at age two, with 22.3% at age six, 24.7% at age 10 and 20.6% at age 14. Many of these children were still classed as overweight or obese at 18. Jasmin de Groot, of Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, said: 'We need to understand how children grow and develop if we are to help future generations grow up healthier and give every child a chance at a happy, healthy life.' She added: 'The first five years of a child's life provide a fantastic opportunity to intervene and prevent them experiencing overweight and obesity in the years to come.' Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion Separate research by the University of Bristol presented at the congress found the number of overweight teenagers in England has increased by 50%, from 22% in 2008-2010 to 33% in 2021-2023. Lead researcher Dr Dinesh Giri, consultant paediatric endocrinologist at Bristol Royal Hospital for Children, said: 'Over the past 15 years, obesity in adolescents has risen significantly due to a combination of increased consumption of ultra-processed foods, sedentary lifestyles driven by excessive screen time, inadequate sleep, and rising mental health challenges. 'Additionally, reduced opportunities for physical activity and socioeconomic disparities have further contributed to an environment that promotes unhealthy lifestyles.'
