04-04-2025
Fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups featuring Spencer Torkelson, Landen Roupp and more
And we're back! Even though it's very early into the 2025 fantasy baseball season, many of you might be looking at a roster that only partially resembles the team you drafted. Since roster churn is the name of the game, I'm running it back with my patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week's waiver wire headliners … today.
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Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure player statistics regarding control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them together to identify some cheap gems to grab before the squares figure it out next week. At the bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, two-start pitchers and speculative adds.
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When it comes to hitting, opportunity may be king, but we still need production — which comes from underlying skills. Scores of studies have proven the impact of exit velocity and its direct relationship with slugging percentage, so raw power is always a great place to start. The list below utilizes contact quality, paired with advanced statistics and, last but not least, pulled fly balls/line drives — because staying on-brand matters.
Hitters in this table have +86% zone-contact, +43% hard-hit and +13% pulled-fly ball/line-drive rates with a +.345 expected weighted on-base average and a minimum of 10 plate appearances.
Nothing like buying in on a post post-hype player seemingly on the cusp of fulfilling the prophecy just as the fantasy industry gives up completely. Even though it's felt like a lifetime of fantasy disappointment to this point, former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson is still just 25 years old — and he's looking really good to start the season after a torrid spring. I hate citing such small samples in any way with confidence because you could manipulate them to make an argument in either direction.
What do I mean? Tork's .318 batting average is a mixed bag on the back of a .500 BABIP, and the underpinning power metrics are looking strong (.990 OPS, 46.2% Hard Hit, .460 xwOBAcon) despite a pretty ugly 33.3% K rate. Yes, a strikeout rate that high generally piques every downside antennae. However, I'm not worried — he's sporting an elite 93.5% Zone-Contact and just a 6.9% Swinging Strike rate. I'm jumping in on the hot start with a high-ceiling potential, just in case it's happening this time.
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Backstops may not always earn an individual write-up here, but every new season shakes up the Etch-A-Sketch, creating unforeseen opportunities — and right now is the time to get while the gettin' is good. The most important statistic to chase at the fantasy catcher position is plate appearances, especially when earned as a designated hitter.
Colorado's Hunter Goodman finds himself in precisely that position, having played in every game thus far while coming off an insane three-year, 600-PA minor-league pace —.279 BA/94 R/123 RBI/39 HR/ 4 SB. Sure, the 25-year-old backstop still strikes out a ton, but that could lessen with repetitions, providing a shot at a legitimate long-term solution to your power problems.
Deep League Special: Torpedo bat jokes aside, the hardest thing to find in deep leagues has to be home runs, and the only place they aren't already claimed is always on the worst MLB teams. With very little competition in-house for plate appearances, 27-year-old masher Kyle Stowers is finally getting his chance to play, and he looks really good — .263 BA/3 R/4 RBI/1 HR/1 SB. Most likely a strong-side platoon bat, Stowers is making the most of his opportunities after a very impressive four-year, 600-PA run in the minors — .279 BA/87 R/109 RBI/34 HR/6 SB.
Hitting in the two hole for the Miami Marlins should get Stowers the at-bats to compensate for a missed game here or there, especially if his power metrics (66.7% Hard Hit, 16.7% Barrel, .523 xwOBAcon) sustain whatsoever. He's still a complete fantasy afterthought, so now's your chance to fill up the power categories while waiting for Ronald Acuña Jr. or if you fell short of projected HRs in the draft room.
*** – Prioritize for speed
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn't be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are suppressing runs by keeping runners off base and striking out batters. Though simply showing up on this list so early may be noise, there's an argument that this combination of skills signals an immediate call to action.
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Pitchers in this table have a ≤3.75 expected earned run average, ≤1.20 WHIP, +20.0% strikeout minus walk rate, with a minimum of five innings pitched.
Similar to hitters, the season's opening month provides an opportunity to front-run players with tremendous ceiling potential before they become household names. Enter Landen Roupp, San Francisco's right-handed hurler, who won an opening day rotation spot against tough competition.
We got treated to a little bit of Roupp last year, mostly out of the bullpen, but his premiere swing-and-miss ability was still evident — his arsenal boasted three separate pitches with a +33% Whiff. Not bad. Granted, recent walk issues have spooked some fantasy gamers, but I'd still counter that they were never part of his track record.
In his career 172.2 minor league innings (closely resembling a full season), the stat line speaks for itself — 2.50 ERA (2.65 FIP), 1.02 WHIP, 36.2% K (!), 8.2% BB (not terrible!), 0.42 HR/9. Maybe I did myself a disservice by watching, but he looked impressive against a tough Houston lineup on Wednesday, striking out eight batters in just 4 IP. Eschew players with capped ceilings at this stage of the season in favor of potential needle-movers.
That's a wrap! I hope you enjoyed the first speculative piece on the 2025 season.
For more MLB news, follow me on X @JohnLaghezza.
(Top photo of Spencer Torkelson: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)
