3 days ago
Poland's election is a pivotal moment for Europe
Much of this reaction has no doubt been shaped in part by the fact that, for years, Poles used to flock abroad for work, leaving the lingering notion that things were far from good in their home country.
That Poland has had its economic woes in past decades is undeniable, but here are a few curious facts worth considering in taking stock of any fresh appraisal of this Central European nation.
For example, how many of us knew that Poland's manufacturing sector is booming and that since it joined the EU in 2004, it has never known recession apart from briefly at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic?
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How many of us too realise that the evidence of such growth with income per person having trebled since 1995, is clearly visible to anyone visiting Poland?
Having journeyed through or stayed in the country many times these past few years since Russia's invasion of Poland's neighbour Ukraine, I – like other visitors – have always been struck by its burgeoning infrastructure projects often built with EU money.
This is a nation driven by strong private consumption and investment. It's one too as The Economist magazine recently pointed where 'living standards, adjusted for purchasing power, are about to eclipse Japan's'.
Detractors will doubtless quickly point out that the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD has just revised down its GDP growth forecast for Poland to 3.3% for 2025, from a forecast of 3.4% in February 2025, but even such sceptics would have to admit that this a country more than holding its own economically.
And on that very subject of holding its own, Poland, a country long wary of the threat from Russia, has also transformed itself into Europe's most overlooked military power with a bigger army than Britain, France or Germany and the third largest in Nato.
In short, Poland matters for Europe and indeed the wider geopolitical world right now and it's against such a backdrop that the country today – June 1 – faces a decisive run-off vote to elect its president.
Although the president's role is a largely ceremonial one, today's election outcome will still be extremely significant for how Poland is governed in the coming years.
Watching closely too are US and European conservatives who view the run-off vote as being potentially decisive not just for the EU but also for right-wing populists aligned with US president Donald Trump's MAGA drive to dominate Europe.
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Such is this level of importance that the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), the United States' premier conservative gathering, held its first meeting in Poland last Tuesday, just five days before today's tightly contested election.
'We need you to elect the right leader,' Kristi Noem, the US Homeland Security secretary and a prominent Trump ally, said in a speech at the event. 'You will be the leaders that will turn Europe back to conservative values.'
Speaking about the two contenders in the run-off – who are Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafał Trzaskowski of the main centrist ruling party Civic Platform (PO) and national conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, of the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party – Noem left no one in any doubt as to who Trump would like to see win.
Urging Poland's voters in her speech at the CPAC to elect Nawrocki as someone who would lead Poland in a style similar to Trump, Noem went on to describe his pro-EU rival Trzaskowski as 'an absolute train wreck of a leader'.
So just how did today's contest come about and what will be the significance of its outcome for Poland, Europe and the wider geopolitical landscape?
The first thing to recognise is that after the first round in the election, Trzaskowski secured a narrow 31.4% to 29.5% lead and polls now suggest they are currently running neck-and-neck. Following today's second-round run-off the winner will succeed incumbent president Andrzej Duda when his second and final term in office expires in August.
While the powers of the president are largely symbolic, it's not quite as simple as that. Whoever is in office for example has the power to veto bills passed by parliament, a power that the PiS-aligned Duda has used to stymie the agenda of the current government.
To put this another way, Donald Tusk, the liberal Polish prime minister elected at the head of a coalition in late 2023, quite simply has had to 'cohabit' with Duda, and lacks the three-fifths parliamentary majority required to overturn his legislative veto.
For precisely that reason Tusk needs Trzaskowski to become president so he can pursue the judicial overhaul and other reforms that are blocked by the outgoing Duda.
But other things are also at stake in terms of whoever takes the office of president.
For example, as Aleks Szczerbiak, professor of politics at the University of Sussex and contributor to the news portal Notes From Poland, recently pointed out, the president does have other competencies that relate to foreign affairs.
The most important of these is that the president is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces so can influence debates on security policy. Ambassadorial appointments also have to be approved by the president which explains why Poland does not currently have a full-time ambassador to Washington because Duda refuses to accept the Tusk government's nominee.
As today's contest reaches its height, a total of 13 candidates are vying for the presidency but it is the battle between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki on which all eyes are focused.
Trzaskowski, 53, is an Oxford-educated son of a jazz musician who champions a liberal agenda that stresses the importance of women's rights and strong ties with the European Union and Nato. One of his campaign promises includes strengthening Poland's position in the EU.
Another one of his pledges is to relax abortion laws, however, he has been quiet on this issue during the run-up to the election. He has also been supportive of the LGBTQ community and has attended pride parades. This could alienate some more conservative voters who live outside urban centres.
Nawrocki, 42, a historian, has positioned himself as a newcomer with no political baggage. He wants Poland to follow a path inspired by Trump and regards Washington as Warsaw's key ally, not Brussels.
Nawrocki opposes abortion and aims to keep coal mines operating until Poland develops its own nuclear energy. He opposes EU migration policies.
Nawrocki, by and large, has dominated public debate – be it over questions about his controversial acquisition of a flat from a pensioner or an admission that he took part in orchestrated brawls.
'All my sports activities were based on the strength of my heart, the strength of my muscles, my fists,' Nawrocki, an amateur boxer, told a debate when confronted over reports he had been involved in mass organised fights between football hooligans.
'It was a fair competition, regardless of the form,' he insisted.
For both contenders though one of the key issues dominating the election is the Russia-Ukraine war. When the war first broke out in February 2022, Poland threw its full support behind Ukraine, welcoming more than one million Ukrainian refugees who crossed the border without documents.
Earlier this month, Tusk, alongside Britain, France and Germany's leaders, visited Kyiv while giving Russian president Vladimir Putin an ultimatum to enact an unconditional 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. Tusk was determined to help stress that Europe is ready to stand by Ukraine even as America's commitment has weakened. It was a measure of Poland's importance and standing among the allies that Tusk was in attendance.
By contrast though – as The Economist magazine recently highlighted – Poland's stance is in sharp distinction to the rest of the 'Visegrad Four'.
'Hungary under Viktor Orbán and Slovakia under Robert Fico have both taken the side of Russia rather than Ukraine, and the Czech Republic is expected to tilt in that direction after elections in October,' the magazine noted.
In terms of today's vote though, the fact that relations between Poland and Ukraine have grown tense despite Tusk's support are sure to have an impact on the ballot.
Earlier this year, Polish farmers led protests, arguing the market had been flooded with cheap agricultural products from Ukraine.
There are emerging reports too of Ukrainian refugees facing discrimination in Poland, as well as resentment about welfare provided to them.
There have also been growing fears of a spillover of Russian aggression to Poland due to its proximity to Ukraine.
On May 12, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Warsaw said an investigation had revealed that Moscow's intelligence agencies had orchestrated a massive fire at a shopping centre in Warsaw back in May 2024. Reports of foreign election interference have also recently spooked voters.
As The Economist summed it up, there are two 'visions' dominating the election.
'One vision, from the candidate of the Law and Justice (PiS) party, is a brand of right-wing nationalism that feeds off conflict with Poland's neighbours and the European Union. The other, from the centre, is that, in a dangerous world, Poland needs Europe to magnify its strengths, just as Europe needs Poland as a source of security and economic dynamism.'
Given these competing visions, it's hardly surprising then that many see Poland's future relationship with the EU hinging on today's outcome.
'One election, two futures,' is how one political commentator referred to it. While EU membership has massively boosted Poland's development, the rise of populism has reshaped public debate in the country and the political landscape.
'Sunday's outcome means either a clean break with Poland's past as one of the bad boys of the EU, or a return to a more turbulent relationship with Brussels,' noted Politico magazine a few days ago.
Watching closely too are Europe's right-wing populists who are keen to avoid a repeat of their recent defeat in Romania.
'Sunday's vote is crucial for the future of Europe,' George Simion, the Romanian ultranationalist who narrowly lost his country's presidential race earlier this month despite a surge in support for the far right, told the Financial Times (FT).
Simion went on to say that a loss in Poland could further diminish the influence of the populist right across central and eastern Europe and lead to defeat for prime minister Viktor Orbán in next year's parliamentary elections in Hungary.
'If MAGA really wants to go international, they need now a victory in Poland,' Simion was cited by the FT as warning about today's election outcome.
Under Tusk, there's no doubt that Poland is back as one of the leading countries in the EU, setting the bloc's direction alongside Germany and France.
But his core promise of undoing the legal changes pushed through by PiS in the eight years they ruled Poland remains hamstrung, making today's vote a potential lynchpin moment.
As Szczerbiak says: 'A victory for Trzaskowski will provide the Tusk government with renewed momentum and a clear two-and-a-half-year run before the next parliamentary election, during which it can rebuild its support base and restore a sense of purpose (as well, of course, as limiting the ability of a future PiS government to pursue its agenda).'
On the other hand, a Nawrocki win would prolong the impasse. He would continue blocking Tusk's reforms and his overriding goal would be to prepare the ground for PiS's return to power in the next parliamentary poll.
At the time of writing, this campaigning in Poland is now all but over and polls open at 7am Polish time today and close at 9pm. Most expect exit polls will be published shortly afterwards with a full result likely known by Monday.
Poland, once a dreary backwater of Cold War communism is now a European powerhouse and prosperous member of the EU. It would be hard then to overstate just how important today's election is on so many levels.
From the future of the EU to the survival of right-wing populist politics on the continent, to the war in Ukraine and role of Nato, so much hinges on this pivotal and potentially dangerous moment. The stakes then could not be higher and those Poles heading today to vote are no doubt acutely aware of it.
