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Business Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
UK economic team looks beyond Europe
THIS week marks the 50th anniversary of the United Kingdom's June 1975 referendum of its membership of the European Common Market, the precursor of the European Union (EU). Yet, some five decades later, the trade policy of the UK is increasingly looking beyond Europe, post-Brexit. In the last few weeks alone, the UK government has agreed a new trade deal with India, plus also a tariff agreement with the United States. UK ministers, including Chancellor Rachel Reeves, have said that this further deal could be finalised swiftly in the form of a new trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) comprising Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait. While the GCC economy is, collectively, not nearly as large as that of the United States or even India, the deal would be a significant prize with the Middle Eastern bloc's total GDP of around US$2 trillion in 2022. According to the World Bank, if the GCC continues to grow at a business-as-usual rate, combined GDP would grow to about US$6 trillion by 2050. A second reason why the UK government would celebrate a deal is that the GCC has signed relatively few such agreements to date, including a pact with South Korea. A further big prize for London of a GCC deal could be further, open access to investment from Gulf sovereign wealth funds which tend to be cross-sector investors who often take a long-term multi-decade economic perspective. Total UK-GCC bilateral trade is currently worth around £60 billion (S$104.5 billion). This makes the GCC bloc as a whole equivalent to the UK's fourth largest non-EU export market behind the US, China and Switzerland. A UK deal with the GCC is forecast to add as much as £1.6 billion to this existing bilateral trade in the short term. The UK government hopes that the value will rise by an additional £8.6 billion a year by 2035. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Wider developments It is possible that wider developments could reinforce this dynamic of closer UK-GCC economic cooperation. This includes potential steps toward implementation of a proposed India-Middle East-Europe Corridor to foster connectivity and integration with Asia via a proposed route from India and into Europe. The corridor – which would comprise vast road, railroad and shipping networks – was given new impetus in September 2023 at the G20 summit in New Delhi. A memorandum of understanding was signed to try to develop the project by the governments of India, United States, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and several key European nations. The potentially imminent new UK-GCC deal underlines, yet again, the emphasis London is putting on consolidating ties with key non-European Union nations, post-Brexit. One of the key ideas of some leavers in the 2016 EU referendum was rediscovering the UK's heritage as a formerly strongly-focused global trading nation. This includes former parts of the British Empire and now-Commonwealth, such as India and Singapore; plus other key emerging markets like the GCC states; and key industrialised countries such as Australia, Canada and the US. However, ambitious as much of this agenda is, some of it is a long way from being fully realised. Perhaps the best example is the apparently remote possibility of any UK trade deal with either of the two world's biggest economies: China and the US. For instance, while there has been much fanfare over a potential new UK-US trade deal, any such agreement looks unlikely. This even under the pro-Brexit Trump administration in the period to early-2029. Multiple challenges Equally, while London and Beijing have both been impacted by the disruptive diplomacy of the Trump administration, there are multiple political and economic challenges that appear likely to prevent any deal in the short to medium term. Certainly, a UK-China accord is not one of the deals closest to the finish line compared to potential others like South Korea, Switzerland, Canada, and Mexico, a number of which may potentially be concluded during the current UK parliament ending probably in 2028 or 2029. There are also human rights concerns about some of the agreements, including the GCC and India ones. The UK Trade Union Council has recently slammed such economic agreements with 'countries that abuse human rights and workers' rights, and violate international law'. It also welcomes the recent UK's decision to suspend trade talks with Israel because of the accelerated military offensive in Gaza and the country's decision to limit the amount of aid allowed into the Palestinian territory. A wider critique of the UK's post-Brexit trade deal strategy came last month in a report from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. It argues that the UK government's hyper focus on traditional broad-based trade agreements is misaligned with the country's service-based economy. The think tank, which is chaired by former UK prime minister Blair, asserts that time-consuming, goods-focused trade agreements offer diminishing returns on investment and are poorly matched to the UK's core strengths in services and digital trade. So, rather than doubling down on such slow-moving, broad trade pacts, it advocates instead a movement towards more targeted services-orientated, market access deals that can be negotiated faster and deliver bigger economic impact. The Blair Institute report highlights that, between 2020 and 2024, London inked only three new trade agreements, which are expected to boost exports by a comparatively small £9.5 billion in the long run. In contrast, over the same period, successive UK administrations resolved some 640 market access barriers, whose strategic bilateral market gains increasingly have the potential to deliver higher value, faster. One example cited as good practice is the UK's digital economic agreement with Singapore. This was negotiated relatively quickly in 2022, and leverages UK strengths as a tech and services leader. With the GCC agreement almost finalised, the Blair Institute recommendations are unlikely to significantly influence the end game of that negotiation. However, there could be scope for bringing the insights into wider negotiations with countries including South Korea, Switzerland, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico. This may require the UK Department for Business and Trade to reallocate resources and focus efforts on areas with the greatest potential return with a clearer strategic framework for driving new deals. Taken overall, Brexit is therefore offering new opportunities for the UK to reinvent its world role, especially in the context of trade relations. However, despite the flurry of recent deals, it will probably not be clear for some time exactly how successful this ambitious agenda proves to be, not least given the services orientation of the UK economy. The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
Yahoo
18-02-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
The Earl of Sandwich, dedicated crossbencher who kept the Foreign Office and DfID on their toes
The 11th Earl of Sandwich, who has died aged 81, was devoted – as a charity worker and writer, and as a highly respected hereditary member of the House of Lords – to the causes of international development, overseas aid and human rights. John Montagu worked with Christian Aid, Save the Children Fund and Care International before inheriting the peerages conferred on his 17th-century naval ancestor but disclaimed in 1964 by his MP father. Lord Sandwich – as John became on his father's death in 1995 – was a gentle and cerebral crossbench participant in Lords' debates and committees, intensely focused on drawing support to his chosen causes without ever seeking limelight or confrontation. Such was the good impression made in his early years that when 92 hereditary peers had to be chosen by election to remain in 1999, following Blair government reforms, Sandwich was elected fifth in the list of 28 favoured crossbenchers. Over three decades he made more than a thousand contributions to the House's proceedings, very often in the form of courteous but probing questions to Foreign Office and DfID ministers and always in the interest, as one colleague put it, of 'those for whom he cared most, those with no chance and no choice'. In his valedictory speech in May 2024 – in a debate on the legal status of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association and the International Committee of the Red Cross – Sandwich spoke passionately about 'the forgotten crisis' of Sudan and its 'progressive destruction' by warring generals, leading to 'appalling loss of life and malnutrition [and] a high number of refugees falling into the hands of traffickers on their way to small boats bringing them to this country. We are not doing enough to work with our European and Commonwealth friends to reduce these numbers.' During that debate, Lady (Virginia) Bottomley of Nettlestone summed up Lord Sandwich as 'a man of intellect, wisdom, huge generosity of spirit and great modesty [who] gives Parliament a good name'. John Edward Hollister Montagu was born in London on April 11 1943 to Victor Montagu, Viscount Hinchingbrooke, and his wife Rosemary, née Peto, who divorced when John was 15. Victor 'Hinch' Montagu was a difficult father and a rumbustious Conservative MP for South Dorset between 1941 and 1962, best known for his opposition to withdrawal from Suez and to Harold Macmillan's first overtures towards the European Common Market. On inheriting the earldom in 1962, Victor was reluctantly obliged to leave the Commons – but having followed the example of Tony Benn (formerly Viscount Stansgate) and disclaimed his titles for life, he failed to find a new constituency. John was educated at Eton and read history and modern languages at Trinity College, Cambridge. He worked in publishing and journalism before joining Christian Aid as an information officer in 1974 and later working as an editor for Save the Children Fund and a consultant for Care International. Covering projects for the homeless, the hungry and the disenfranchised in Indonesia, Afghanistan, Nepal, Kosovo, throughout Africa, and in India, where he lived for a year, he also often worked alongside the Red Cross in emergency appeals. He was a mainstay for many years of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Sudan and a co-founder with Oliver Letwin MP of the APPG for Prescribed Drug Dependence, which achieved changes in clinical guidelines to improve patient safety. He was also a member of the council of the Anti-Slavery Trust, chairman of the Britain Afghanistan Trust and an adviser to the British College at Kathmandu. He was the author of The Book of the World (1971), a compendium of facts and maps. For Save the Children Fund he edited Prospects for Africa's Children (1990) and Children at Crisis Point (1992); he also published a celebration of his father's life, a collection of his mother's illustrated letters and other family material. He was president for 25 years of the Samuel Pepys Club, the 17th-century diarist having been a cousin of the 1st Earl. The titles of Earl of Sandwich, Viscount Hinchingbrooke and Baron Montagu of St Neots had been conferred in 1660 on Edward Montagu, an admiral who helped negotiate the restoration of the monarchy and commanded the fleet which brought Charles II back from Holland. A more famous ancestor, however, was the 4th Earl (1718-1792), who served three terms as First Lord of the Admiralty and is credited with the invention in 1762 of the western world's most ubiquitous fast food when he asked for a serving of beef between bread to be brought to him at the gambling table. That episode inspired the launch in 2004 by John Sandwich's son Orlando (with the 11th Earl in the role of 'president', and in partnership with the Planet Hollywood restaurateur Robert Earl) of the Earl of Sandwich chain, which claims 'the world's greatest hot sandwich' offering, including 'The Full Montagu' combination of beef, turkey, cheese and salad. The venture has 50 locations in North America, Asia and Disneyland Paris. In the 1980s, Lord Sandwich also embarked with his wife Caroline on the restoration of the gardens, woodlands and farms of the Mapperton estate in Dorset, which had been acquired by Victor Montagu in 1955. Its manor house, Tudor in origin but largely rebuilt in the 1660s, was named 'the nation's finest' by Country Life in 2006. He was also captain and 'chairman of selectors' of Mapperton Marauders cricket club, a fellow member recalling: 'On match day, no one quite knew how many would show up, numbers could vary from seven to 17... Equally benign and affable in victory or defeat, John was the perfect embodiment of this once noble sport.' He married, in 1968, Caroline Hayman, whom he had met at Cambridge. She survives him with their sons Luke (Viscount Hinchingbrooke, born in 1969, who succeeds as 12th Earl) and Orlando, and daughter Jemima. Lord Sandwich, born April 11 1943, died February 1 2025 Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
