Latest news with #EvolvingHockey
New York Post
2 days ago
- Sport
- New York Post
What the fears about the Islanders overpaying Noah Dobson get wrong
Let's start here with two players who are incredibly polarizing to their respective fan bases. Player A finished this past season with 15 fewer points than the previous season, and 39 of the points he did get this season came on secondary assists. He's often cast as a defensive liability, but plays a heavy minutes workload — more than 23 minutes per game — and his contract expires at the end of this season. Evolving Hockey projects his next contract at eight years with a $10.6 million average annual value. Evolving Hockey clocked his expected goals percentage this season at 57.9 — sixth on his team but below its other stars, and well above his actual goals-for percentage of 52.07. He was left off Team Canada's roster at the 4 Nations. Player B finished this past season with 31 points fewer than the previous season, and 13 of his 39 points this season came on secondary assists. He's also cast as a defensive liability, but plays more than 23 minutes per game. His contract expires at the end of the season. Evolving Hockey projects his next contract at eight years with a $10.1 million average annual value. His expected goals percentage at five-on-five this year was 54.3 — the best on his team of anyone with more than 800 minutes — with his goals-for percentage at 51.53. He also was left off Team Canada's roster at the 4 Nations. Player A is Evan Bouchard.
New York Times
31-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Red Wings mailbag: Is there a silver lining to this season? Plus draft, free-agent targets
For a brief window Saturday night, the Detroit Red Wings' 2-1 win over the Boston Bruins brought them within a point of the Eastern Conference's final wild-card spot. But after wins by the New York Rangers and Montreal Canadiens, that gap is back up to three points with nine games left. That's still possible to overcome, but it will take a huge push in Detroit's final nine games, especially against the NHL's toughest remaining schedule. Advertisement That difficult path — as well as Detroit's woeful March — has fans already starting to think big-picture about the season, and thinking ahead to how to improve upon it, in this month's mailbag. Note: Questions have been edited for clarity and length. Any insight into what is going on with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond? Both aren't tearing it up since the 4 Nations and the wings need them to pop. Are they gassed? Are teams defending them better? Is it all due to inconsistency on their other wing since Marco Kasper went to 2C? What's the best way to get them firing again? — Max T. Detroit's top two forwards have been quieter than usual since the 4 Nations Face-Off. In 18 games since the break, each has five goals, and Larkin has 12 points total and Raymond has 14. That's not terrible, but it's not what the Red Wings have grown accustomed to getting from those two. Their underlying numbers are a little more positive: The Red Wings have generated 52.5 percent of the expected goals with Larkin on the ice at five-on-five in that span and 57 percent with Raymond. Those are both good numbers. And their individual expected goals numbers aren't far off their season averages — Larkin is at 1.16 individual expected goals per 60 since the break, compared with 1.31 on the season, and Raymond's are identical to his season average at 0.99, according to Evolving Hockey. That's all important context. And yet, watching them, I agree: They just haven't looked like they have the same pop night to night. As for why, though, I haven't been able to get much illumination when I've asked. There's some reality to not getting the same rest as everyone else over that break. The rotating cast of linemates is a factor, too. I've also wondered whether they're just pressing. But whatever the reason, Detroit's going to need more from two players who are so important to what they do. Advertisement 'Everybody's games kind of ebb and flow, and they've had some nights where they have been productive,' coach Todd McLellan said recently. 'They've had nights where they've had great scoring opportunities and it hasn't gone in. And then they've just had some dry nights. If it's one of the first two nights, we have to live with that. The dry nights where there's not much going on, we have to find ways to get them to be catalysts. 'There's pressure on both of them, of course. They're looked at as our offensive leaders, and leaders overall. And at this time of year, that pressure can be immense, so they have to handle that as well. But expectations are high for the pair, and for them as individuals.' Why is our penalty kill historically bad? Basically, what is so wrong with it that two head coaches could not figure out? — Frank Y. The Red Wings have tried multiple looks on their penalty kill this season, so it would be arrogant of me to think I had an answer none of those coaches could find. Shayna Goldman and I took a stab at analyzing it earlier this season before the coaching change, but even since then, Detroit has changed things further. The results have been the same: Detroit's 68.5 percent success rate on the penalty kill is the second worst on record since the league began keeping track in 1977. With nine games left, there's a chance it ends up as the worst ever, with the current low-water mark 68.2 percent by the 1979-80 Los Angeles Kings. 'Here's what I know, is the team's gone through transition systematically,' McLellan said. 'And I think it's not just when we came (in), I think it was prior to that they tried something and then went to something else. That random jump from one to another can be — yeah, you're trying to solve a problem, but it can also create doubt in players' minds. Like, we're on to our third look, and they begin to doubt any of them. So we're in that situation right now.' Advertisement McLellan did add, 'When we are in structure, we're doing a lot of the right things,' but thinks they can be better around the crease on rebounds, deflections and tip-ins. He feels they've been burned on 'scrambles.' There's also one more layer to it, though: Detroit's .791 short-handed save percentage is the worst in the league, and the only one below .809. The expected goals numbers are still bad — 9.67 xGA/60, fifth worst in the league — but that wide gap in save percentage might be the difference between bad and historically bad. Compared to last season's final push, it seems we are further out AND putting up less of a fight. Have we improved as a team from last season? Our star production and PP improved, but am I wrong to say we have taken a big step back on the ice? Matching last season's 41 wins is a long shot, but that isn't the full picture. Are there silver linings here? I'm lost. — Stephen H. Well, they certainly have taken a step back in the standings. With nine games remaining, the Red Wings are at 74 points, which means they would have to win all nine to top last season's 91 points. On the ice, certain areas have improved (such as the power play, which has gone from good to elite), but the penalty kill — which was a top-15 unit last season — has given all of that back. Most of all, Detroit is feeling the lack of depth scoring this season compared with last, especially at five-on-five. That was to be expected with the Red Wings needing more cap space to extend Raymond and Moritz Seider but still stings. It doesn't help that their primary free-agent signing, Vladimir Tarasenko, has just 30 points — 17 fewer than David Perron finished with last season. In terms of silver linings, it's probably the key roles young players such as Marco Kasper, Simon Edvinsson and Albert Johansson are playing and succeeding in. Kasper is up to 15 goals. Edvinsson has been a clear top-four D and was outstanding with Seider when the two shared the top pair. Johansson has gotten better as the year has gone on and looks like an NHL regular. At some point, all of those players were going to have to adjust to the league as rookies, and they've done that. So that's the positive: They're all easy projections into next season's lineup. Advertisement But it will be about adding more firepower to the lineup and getting more out of the players who will be back for next season. Assuming we have no chance at Mitch Marner, can you tell us one free-agent target that could work out? — Michael W. One name I'm curious about is Vladislav Gavrikov, the left-shot defenseman in Los Angeles. He has familiarity with McLellan and Trent Yawney from their time with the Kings, and as of Sunday afternoon, Gavrikov had the fifth-best five-on-five expected goals against numbers in the NHL (1.84 xGA/60) among defensemen who played at least 500 minutes. He'll be 30 this fall, but that's the nature of free agency, and a top pairing of Gavrikov and Seider has the potential to be one of the league's most stout — capable of truly succeeding in the kind of tough minutes Detroit tends to feed Seider. And, it would allow Detroit to slot Ben Chiarot down the lineup against more manageable matchups, potentially on a pair with a young defenseman such as Johansson or top prospect Axel Sandin-Pellikka. Gavrikov will have a real market, to be sure. He won't be cheap. But what he's been in Los Angeles is exactly what Detroit needs — and having the same coaching staff that helped establish that Kings defense group could help make it possible. Though he hasn't been as good as last year, I feel like Patrick Kane still adds a distinct element of stickhandling and flair that'd be impossible to replace. If he leaves Detroit after this season (which I'm assuming he will if the Wings don't make the playoffs), how does Detroit go about replacing his production? — Matt J. I wouldn't be quite so quick to assume Kane will leave depending on whether they make or miss the playoffs. He has seemed to like being in Detroit, and for someone with a young family, there's an appeal to stability. Playing with Alex DeBrincat is a great selling point, too. But, if the Red Wings were to have to replace Kane, they'd have their work cut out for them. The overall production (52 points in 63 games) is a big part of that, but the key is really about the left-shot playmaking on the power play. Kane has been outstanding in that spot, with 27 of his 52 points coming on the power play, including 12 goals. He's one of the biggest reasons that unit has been as good as it has, and to be honest, I don't know whether there is a replacement for that. His vision as a playmaker is all-time caliber. Detroit needs another top-six difference-maker regardless of whether Kane stays or goes, but losing him would only up the stakes to find that kind of player — whether by trade or free agency. I don't have a robust list of names yet, but that'll be a focus of offseason coverage to be sure. How would you pitch Detroit to FAs? What do you think it is about Detroit that would resonate with today's players more than another team/city beyond pure dollars? — Jack V. Detroit has a few things working for it. It has arguably the league's best facilities, at Little Caesars Arena, especially with its attached practice rink. It's a historic hockey market with passionate fans but without quite the same fishbowl effect as a Montreal or Toronto. It's an easy place to live, weather aside, especially for young families. And though the Red Wings can't sell recent success, they do have a team that should be on the cusp of the playoffs — and the potential payoff when it eventually happens. Advertisement You saw what it looked like for the Tigers when they finally broke through, let alone for the Lions. The Pistons are experiencing that breakthrough right now. The city is desperate for postseason hockey and ready to be all in when it arrives. That's the framework of a pretty solid pitch. Michael Misa is the prospect I envy in this draft. The high-end, clear-cut first-line player that could put down all the questions we have about an elite scorer. Since we won't have the opportunity to draft him, do you think there is another player in the 5-10 range the Wings should target as having a similar potential? — Avery L. Well, probably not quite at Misa's level, considering he just finished putting up two points per game to lead the OHL, but there are players in that range who would bring some of the offense the Red Wings need. This class has a good number of players in the top-10 range who fit the Red Wings' needs and profile. Six of those players (Misa, defenseman Matthew Schaefer, and forwards Caleb Desnoyers, James Hagens, Porter Martone and Anton Frondell) seem sure to go before Detroit picks. There are still a couple of more forwards who would be outstanding fits for the Red Wings in the 8-12 range, though. One is Jake O'Brien, a playmaking center with some size who put up an assist per game this season in the OHL. Victor Eklund is a different style, but he's a high-motor Swede who plays with a lot of pace and has a fantastic shot that helped him produce against men in the Allsvenskan. I could easily imagine him looking good next to Dylan Larkin in a couple of years. There's also Roger McQueen, who once looked like he could be part of that top group but has had an injury-plagued season. Those injury issues give plenty of pause, but McQueen is a 6-foot-5 center with real skill, and that gives him plenty of upside — if you can stomach the injury risk. Some other forwards could go around that range whom Detroit could consider, including Justin Carbonneau, Carter Bear and Lynden Lakovic, as well as a few D — Kashawn Aitcheson, Jackson Smith and Radim Mrtka — but O'Brien and Eklund are two forwards I'd expect to go between 8 and 10 who strike me as natural fits for Detroit.
New York Times
18-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
What Marco Kasper's second-half surge means for the Red Wings' present and future
For the first 50 minutes of the Detroit Red Wings' 3-0 victory over the Vegas Golden Knights on Sunday, Marco Kasper was knocking on the door. In the first period, he found Patrick Kane off a spinning pass on a two-on-one for a Grade-A chance. Early in the second, he drove to the net off the rush and got a couple of good whacks at a Simon Edvinsson rebound. Less than five minutes into the third, he found some rare open space just outside the crease, received a pass from Alex DeBrincat, and tried to wait out Vegas goaltender Ilya Samsonov before ultimately putting his shot wide. Advertisement Had that been the extent of his day, the Red Wings likely would have still taken it. For a young center with only 63 career NHL games under his belt, getting those looks is half the battle. But midway through the third, Kasper finally got his reward — once again creeping down to the crease and this time redirecting an Erik Gustafsson pass into the back of the net. It was Kasper's 13th goal of the season, and 11th since Jan. 10. That's the most by any NHL rookie in that span. His 20 points in those 27 games have represented a major surge, corresponding with his elevation into Detroit's top six. Much like Sunday's game, Kasper has played well all season — but now the offense is coming, too. Tic-tac-GOAL! Marco Kasper's 13th of the season. #LGRW — Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) March 16, 2025 Recently, he's been centering the Red Wings' second line between Kane and DeBrincat, two of the team's most creative offensive players. And as much as that speaks to the trust he's earned from Red Wings coach Todd McLellan, his play has done plenty of talking on its own. 'I keep banging this young man's drum, because he deserves it,' McLellan said last week, after a three-point night from Kasper. Kasper has been all over the lineup this season, playing everywhere from the bottom six to a spot on the top line as a left wing. And through it all, he's performed well: his 52.74 percent expected goals share at five-on-five leads all Detroit regulars, according to Evolving Hockey. With Andrew Copp out for the season, though, he has settled nicely into centering Kane and DeBrincat — a role Detroit had only dabbled with before, but now suddenly looks like an obvious fit. Some of that is stylistic. As McLellan noted, 'When Cat and Kaner play, they know each other real well. They need somebody in and around the net.' Advertisement Certainly, Kasper's fearless, hard-charging style is a fit for that. He brings pace, forechecking and that all-important presence around the blue paint to any line he's on. And as the season has gone on, it's been impossible not to notice Kasper becoming even more impactful on a night-to-night basis, whether it's been with Kane and DeBrincat or on the wing for Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond. 'He's got a little bit more experience, and probably some more confidence playing at this level, playing with top players like Larks and Ray — and I know it's a different position (on the wing), but you're still playing hockey,' Kane said Monday. 'So I think (he) seems a little bit more confident. What I've liked about his game is just his pace of play and his ability to drive the middle, right? That just opens up a lot of space for us, and for him going to the net too. That's definitely been a key factor for our success.' Within that, too, though, have come plays like one he and Kane nearly turned into a goal in the first period. Does Kasper make that spinning pass on a two-on-one three or four months ago? It's hard to say. But he made it Sunday, even if it was slightly behind hitting Kane in full stride. 'He has that ability,' Kane said. 'He has the skill. I mean, he's got a good shot. You've seen a lot of his goals this year have been around the net, too, like off the shin pad, just getting a stick on it like the one (Sunday) night, getting open around the net — I mean, that's a good way to learn how to score in this league, especially as a centerman. But he does have skill, and he has the ability to make the plays. And I think with his compete level and his pushing the pace up the middle, it kind of fits well with the way Cat and I like to play.' It's also not the first time Kasper has seen his production and impact tick up as a season has progressed. Dominik Shine was with Kasper last season on the Griffins, when Kasper took a similar route spending some time in the first half adjusting to the new league and then becoming more and more impactful. After having 35 points in 71 games in the AHL regular season, he closed with seven points in nine playoff games, including four goals. Advertisement 'I think as the AHL season went on, he really took a step towards the end of the year, when things got hard,' Shine said. 'Which is, I think, a big tell of his character. So I see the same thing here. I think games are getting a little tighter, and you'll see him rise up to the occasion. He's a really good player.' In the short term, that surge is helping the Red Wings try to keep pace in a crowded Eastern Conference wild-card race. Detroit remains in the mix to grab the final wild-card spot, and if it does, Kasper's ability to find those chances at the goal mouth — all while still playing a responsible defensive game — will likely be part of the reason why. In the big picture, though, his development over the course of the season has even bigger implications. The Red Wings have tried for years now to find a permanent answer at second-line center, but have typically only found short-term solutions. Copp and Compher were signed in part to address that hole in the lineup, and while both have seen time — and had stretches of success — there, they've also at times spent time in more matchup-focused roles in the bottom six. It remains to be seen how Detroit will approach the role next season, as Copp had also found success next to DeBrincat before his season ended early due to an injury to his pectoral tendon, and Kasper looking so good next to Larkin and Raymond. But with the way Kasper is playing at such a young age — he turns 21 in April — he is increasingly looking like a key part of the future down the middle. It's noteworthy, for example, that he currently has the same number of goals (13) as Anaheim's Cutter Gauthier, a fellow rookie forward (and a top-five pick) from the same 2022 draft. It makes you wonder if Kasper's offensive potential may indeed be more substantial than some of his seasons on the way up might have otherwise indicated. Certainly, his recent performances only make it easier to believe that. But point totals will never be the full picture for how Kasper is evaluated, with his defensive impact and competitiveness both major selling points. Ultimately, it's the combination of all three — offense, defense and intangibles — that give him a path to being that long-term top-six center Detroit has long been looking for. That's why, even seeing those extra flashes of creativity and offense of late, McLellan still has his eyes on the total package. Advertisement 'I think when players expand their game a little bit, they feel good about themselves,' McLellan said. 'They feel like they belong, and do exactly that: expand their game and attempt a few new things. But the key about Marco is he doesn't lose, really, what he has already in play. Sometimes players will try and expand their game, and then give everything back, and they end up with nothing. 'If Marco grows his game a little bit by doing and trying different things, great. But we're counting on him not giving anything back, as well.'
New York Times
07-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL trade grades: Blackhawks resolve logjam by dealing Petr Mrázek to Red Wings
The Athletic has live coverage of the 2025 NHL trade deadline. Chicago Blackhawks get: Center Joe Veleno Detroit Red Wings get: Goaltender Petr Mrázek, center Craig Smith Mark Lazerus: Petr Mrázek was fabulous last season. Behind one of the worst defenses we've seen in the modern NHL, Mrázek kept the Blackhawks competitive more often than not and was far better than his pedestrian numbers would suggest. Combine that with his relentlessly sunny attitude, and it was an easy call for the Blackhawks to sign him to a two-year contract to hold down the net while the Blackhawks waited for either Arvid Söderblom or Drew Commesso to take it from him. GO DEEPER NHL trade deadline: Grading every deal completed this trade season But Mrázek crashed down to Earth this season. He's been the worst goalie in the league since Dec. 1, with an .866 save percentage and a minus-14.95 goals saved above expected, per Evolving Hockey. Söderblom had taken over as the Blackhawks' clear No. 1, so when they acquired Spencer Knight from Florida in the Seth Jones trade, Mrázek was the odd man out. He carries a $4.25 million cap hit, he's signed through next season, and Chicago was out of salary retention spots. A trade seemed like a long shot. So, to get out from underneath that contract less than a week after acquiring Knight — and to get a 25-year-old, controllable former first-rounder in Joe Veleno, to boot — is nifty work by Chicago GM Kyle Davidson. Advertisement Veleno will slot in as Smith's replacement in the bottom six. He was underwater in Detroit, with the Red Wings outscored 29-14 at five-on-five with him on the ice. But there's nothing NHL GMs love more than 'change of scenery' trades and reclamation projects with former first-round picks. Veleno has had quite a drop-off after a solid 28-point campaign last season, with his production and his minutes dropping quite a bit. He's got just five goals and five assists in 56 games this season, averaging a mere 11:57 per game. But he'll have a much greater opportunity in Chicago than he had in Detroit. He's worth the flier. Smith, meanwhile, is a solid depth scorer who's never shy about shooting. At 35, he wasn't in the Blackhawks' plans, but he can provide some depth scoring for a Red Wings team that's hoping to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Mrázek part from Detroit's side is somewhat more confounding, considering he now joins a Red Wings squad that also has two goalies in place — Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon. Blackhawks grade: A+ Red Wings grade: B- (Photo of Petr Mrázek: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
New York Times
21-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Canucks sign goalie Kevin Lankinen to splashy long-term extension
The Vancouver Canucks announced Friday that they had agreed to terms with goaltender Kevin Lankinen on a five-year, $22.5 million ($4.5 million annual average value) extension. Lankinen, who was a pending unrestricted free agent, had to settle for a one-year, $875,000 contract with the Canucks in late September after he appeared to overestimate his value in free agency last summer. He will reportedly have a full no-movement clause for the first two years of the deal and a modified no-trade clause (15-team no-trade list) for the final three seasons. Advertisement Lankinen has been one of the Canucks' most important players this season. With Thatcher Demko hampered by injuries and performing inconsistently and playoff breakout performer Arturs Šilovs struggling mightily, Lankinen's rock-solid play as Vancouver's starter has been essential. Lakinen, 29, has posted a .905 save percentage in 34 games and saved 7.3 goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. The Canucks would be sitting outside a playoff spot without Lankinen: They've played at a 108-point pace during his games, compared to a 70-point pace when Demko or Šilovs has been in net. Five years and a $4.5 million cap hit do seem a bit steep for Lankinen, who has been a backup for most of his career, but the Canucks couldn't really afford to lose a goaltender of his quality given all the question marks around Demko's health. Dating back to last season, Demko has only managed to finish 18 of his most recent 21 starts, including the Canucks' final game before the 4 Nations break, and one of those starts includes the playoff game against the Nashville Predators in which Demko sustained his serious knee tear. He is currently out week-to-week, according to the club. There's a chance that you may never reliably be able to count on him to play 50-plus games in a season again. Even if you're the biggest believer in Demko's ability and are confident he'll return to being Vancouver's starter next season, the Canucks needed a 1B goaltender of Lankinen's quality. It'd be reckless to pair Demko with a classic backup who'd be ill-equipped to potentially handle a 40-game-plus workload next season. It's also worth noting that this year's crop of free-agent goaltenders is pretty weak. If the Canucks lost Lankinen, it wouldn't be cheap or easy to replace him. Furthermore, Lankinen's extension aligns with the inflating goalie market prices, coming in slightly cheaper than the five-year, $25 million contract that Joey Daccord signed and the five-year, $26.25 million extension that Mackenzie Blackwood signed. Advertisement There's definitely some risk with this contract — Lankinen turns 30 before year one of the contract kicks in and he doesn't have a long track record of success in a heavy workload — but the Canucks didn't have many appealing alternative options. Demko has one year remaining after this season at a $5 million cap hit, meaning he'll be eligible for an extension on July 1. Lankinen's extension gives the Canucks insurance and flexibility on how to approach Demko's future. If the injury concerns are too large to overlook, Vancouver could shop him on the trade market in the summer. But if the Canucks still want to bet on Demko's star-level ceiling — don't forget he was the Vezina runner-up last season — they could also roll into next season with a Demko/Lankinen tandem. It'd be expensive at a combined $9.5 million, but on paper, it'd be one of the more talented goaltending duos in the NHL. The decision to extend Lankinen doesn't necessarily indicate the end of Demko's Canucks tenure. It does open that possibility up, but again, the club needed a goalie of Lankinen's quality even if they want to keep Demko because of the latter's durability concerns. It's especially difficult to determine Demko's future right now because he's currently sidelined with an injury. The Canucks should use the rest of this season to gather as much info on Demko's health and ability to return to his previous apex form in order to make the most informed decision possible about his future this offseason.
