Latest news with #EwanWright
Yahoo
12-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
The new space race is raining more garbage from the sky. We're not doing enough to stop it
In the early morning hours of February 19, 2025, a bright object streaked through the skies above western Europe. The mysterious, flaming hunk of metal traveled for several hours before smashing into a warehouse in the Polish village of Komorniki. 'I felt surprised but also a little scared,' Adam Borucki, the warehouse's owner, told the BBC in an interview. 'But ultimately, I'm glad no one was hurt.' After inspection by local authorities and the Polish space agency, officials determined the object's identity: a piece of debris from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that had re-entered the atmosphere. This isn't the first time space junk has crashed to Earth. In December 2024, a half-ton piece of space debris flattened trees in a remote village in Kenya. Earlier that same year, a chunk of rocket landed on a North Carolina roof and a discarded space station battery pelted property in Florida. In 2023, fragments of carbon fiber and metal rained down on a Ugandan home. Falling space junk is starting to become a real problem. So how worried should you be about it landing on you? 'The chance of you getting hit is absolutely minuscule,' Ewan Wright, a space sustainability researcher at the University of British Columbia, told Salon. 'But across the whole world, the chances of somebody getting hit is rising to a level where we actually have some concerns about it.' Individually, a person's estimated chance of being struck by space debris is something like one in a trillion. But the odds of debris striking someone on Earth is closer to one in 10,000, as Wright and his colleagues calculated in a 2022 paper published in Nature Astronomy. In fact, in 2002, a young boy in China became the first person to ever be reportedly injured by a piece of a falling rocket (he survived with only minor injuries.) Of course, a direct bodily hit isn't the only hazard of falling space junk. There is a chance that debris could reenter commercial or federal airspace and pose a danger to aircraft, for example. Experts estimate that the world's busiest airports have about a 26% chance each year of being affected by uncontrolled re-entries. Some countries have already had to deal with this — in 2022, Spain and France closed parts of their airspace to avoid a falling Chinese Long March 5B rocket. And such risks, however small, are growing. 'The problem we're facing is that the number of launches is continuing to increase,' says Aaron Boley, an astronomer at the University of British Columbia. That pace shows no sign of slowing down. 2025 is expected to see a record-breaking number of launches, as a new international space race heats up and companies like Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX, rush to put internet satellite 'megaconstellations' in issue is that climate change is messing with LEO, according to research published last month in Nature Sustainability. As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses build up in the dense lower atmosphere, they absorb heat and keep it trapped there. But in the thin upper atmosphere, carbon dioxide can't hang onto its extra heat. This means the upper atmosphere ends up contracting 'like a balloon being placed in liquid helium,' Matthew Brown, a systems engineer at the University of Birmingham in the U.K., explained to Salon. As a result, objects in this region are now experiencing less drag than they did decades ago — which means they are staying up longer, and fewer are completely burning up on reentry. More objects in orbit means more debris with the potential to leave come down unexpectedly. A crowded upper atmosphere could also trigger a phenomenon called 'Kessler syndrome.' In this scenario, pieces of debris crash into one another, fracture into smaller pieces, which then crash into more junk or even functional spacecraft, creating a chain reaction. This cascade goes on until LEO is filled with shrapnel zipping around at intense speed. 'This runaway effect could render entire orbits unusable,' Michele Scaraggi and Rajat Srivastava of the University of Salento in Italy told Salon in an email interview. So what can we do to address the hazards posed by space debris? Some space agencies and private companies have begun designing their craft to ablate — break apart and burn up — in the atmosphere at the end of their life, an approach called 'design for demise.' While great in theory, the issue is that optimal design is difficult to predict, especially given Earth's changing atmospheric composition. 'If they're wrong, then they have 10,000s of pieces of space debris that are going to come down and hit the ground,' says Wright. SpaceX, for instance, designs most of its Starlink satellites to disintegrate upon reentry. But some of those de-orbited satellites don't seem to fully ablate or burn up. One landed on a farm in Saskatchewan, Canada last year. And even craft that burn up completely might cause harm; researchers are concerned that the aerosolized metal could be damaging the ozone layer, reversing years of progress in protecting it. Another option is managed re-entry. The idea behind this is to guide large pieces of re-orbiting debris to a predetermined location, usually a spot in the Pacific Ocean. Managed re-entry is often used for large craft on short missions, but it can be very difficult to arrange for long-term missions. Some agencies are also making plans to remove debris directly from LEO. Proposed approaches include snatching debris with a robotic arm, scooping it up with giant nets, attracting it with magnets and spearing it with harpoons. Though there are currently no removal efforts active in orbit, the European Space Agency has plans to launch its first clean-up mission, called ClearSpace-1, in 2028. 'These initiatives are critical stepping stones,' Scaraggi and Srivastava said. Finally, there is ground-based emergency management. Counties in a few U.S. states, including those with rocket launch sites like California, Texas and Florida, have drafted emergency response plans for falling space debris. However, this is an area that needs to be developed much further, both in the U.S. and globally. As climate change intensifies and new launches clutter our planet's orbit, we're almost certainly going to see more debris crash back to Earth. Humanity is going to need to come up with ways to prevent these re-entries from becoming casualties. This will involve, perhaps, being more intentional and strategic about how we send things into space. 'We definitely want to ensure that we have continued and safe access to outer space,' Boley says. 'But the promise of prosperity is not permission for recklessness.'
Yahoo
07-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Planes could be in danger of falling space debris as recent SpaceX rocket explosion highlights new data
VANCOUVER, B.C. – Space rocket debris has an alarming high chance of impacting busy airspace every year, causing dangers to airline traffic, according to researchers at Canada's University of British Columbia. Using air traffic data from 2023, researchers calculated the probability of rocket debris re-entering busy airspace at 26%. While most debris from space missions burns up upon re-entry into the upper atmosphere, some pieces are still seen streaking through altitudes where aircraft fly, and even reaching the ground. Fortunately, out of the 258 rocket launches and 120 uncontrolled rocket debris re-entries in 2024, none were reported to have disastrous collisions with aircraft, but some experts warn it may only be a matter of time unless industry-wide changes are acted upon. "Uncontrolled rocket body re-entries are a design choice, not a necessity," Dr. Aaron Boley, an associate professor and co-author, said in a statement. "The space industry is effectively exporting its risk to airlines and passengers." Watch: Spacex Starship Test Flight Disintegrates After Launch, Debris In Skies Over Caribbean In late January, an explosion of a SpaceX Starship spacecraft over the Southwest Atlantic and northern Caribbean Sea caused chaos in the skies as pilots of commercial attempted to avoid debris raining down to Earth. The launch was SpaceX's seventh attempt at conducting a test mission of its prized spacecraft that one day could play a crucial role in crewed Artemis missions. "The recent explosion of a SpaceX Starship shortly after launch demonstrated the challenges of having to suddenly close airspace," Ewan Wright, lead author and doctoral student at UBC, stated. SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk attributed the spacecraft's demise to a propellant leak that occurred after liftoff from the SpaceX launch facility in Boca Chica, Texas. Due to the risk of falling debris, the Federal Aviation Administration issued a debris alert for pilots, advising them to slow down and delay departures until the threat of collision was over. Piece Of Suspected Space Debris Found In Rural North CarolinaThe FAA reported no injuries from falling debris occurred in the skies; however, damage on the ground was reported in the Turks and Caicos, southeast of the Bahamas. To mitigate risks posed by space travel, researchers at UBC are advocating for rockets that are designed to re-enter the atmosphere in a controlled manner, which end up crashing harmlessly into the more than 70% of Earth's surface that is covered in water. The researchers admitted that any changes will likely have to start with coordinated actions of governments around the globe before being implemented across the space spectrum. "Countries and companies that launch satellites won't spend the money to improve their rockets' designs unless all of them are required to do so," Byers stated. "So, we need governments to come together and adopt some new standards here."Original article source: Planes could be in danger of falling space debris as recent SpaceX rocket explosion highlights new data
The Independent
05-02-2025
- Science
- The Independent
Substantial chance that rocket debris will fall into busy flight path, researchers say
There is a one in four chance that a rocket debris could fall into a busy flight path, according to a new study. There is very little chance that any of that space junk could actually hit a plane. But there is a high and increasing chance that it could fall into busy flightpaths and cause planes to be diverted as well as other disruptions. The researchers point to the example of a 2022 incident in which a 20-tonne piece of rocket fell back down in southern Europe and airspace had to be closed. Every year, flights and rocket launches increase. Last year, there were 258 successful rocket launches and a record 120 uncontrolled re-entries by rockets – and there are more than 2,300 rocket bodies still in orbit. That means that the danger of the two interacting is also increasing, the authors warn – and they say that the space industry is not doing enough to keep people safe, instead pushing that risk onto airlines. Each year, there is only a one in 430,000 chance that a rocket will actually collide with a plane, the researchers say. But if there is even a chance of such a disaster, authorities have to decide whether to take the risk ro shut their airspace, neither of which is optimal. 'The recent explosion of a SpaceX Starship shortly after launch demonstrated the challenges of having to suddenly close airspace,' said first author Ewan Wright, from the University of British Columbia. 'The authorities set up a 'keep out' zone for aircraft, many of which had to turn around or divert their flight path. And this was a situation where we had good information about where the rocket debris was likely to come down, which is not the case for uncontrolled debris re-entering the atmosphere from orbit.' The researchers say that the space industry should act on that risk, ensuring that their rockets are built to come back down in a controlled way and splash safely into the ocean. But that would require countries to come together and require space agencies and private companies to take on that risk, they warn. An article describing the findings, 'Airspace closures due to reentering space objects', is published in the journal Scientific Reports.
Yahoo
05-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Falling space junk poses a growing risk to air travel safety — and could harm the economy too, experts warn
Talk about a potentially explosive issue. The risk of rogue rocket debris and other man-made space junk colliding with planes is a growing challenge that's only going to get worse as interplanetary traffic and commercial airline flights increase, experts warn. New research published in Scientific Reports suggests that the problem is now notching up from a sci-fi movie-worthy, probably not in a million lightyears scenario to a real world matter of concern. 'In short, there is a 26 percent chance of an uncontrolled space debris reentry in busy airspaces such as the Northeastern United States or Northern Europe each year,' said Ewan Wright at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada. Wright is co-author of the paper, titled 'Airspace closures due to reentering space objects.' Analysis of the academic work posted by cited an example from as recently as last month, when a SpaceX spacecraft erupted into a ball of flames over the North Atlantic Ocean, near Turks and Caicos. During the so-called 'destructive event,' the FAA activated what is known as a Debris Response Area, holding aircraft back from the affected zone for a short time. Earlier in January, a separation ring from a rocket reportedly weighing about 1,000 lbs. crash-landed in the middle of a village in Kenya, authorities said. Study authors pointed out that a growing number of ground stops — and other measures already taken to ensure airline safety during common weather events, including summer thunderstorms — could harm the economy. 'This situation puts national authorities in a dilemma — to close airspace or not — with safety and economic implications either way,' Wright and peers wrote. Their suggestion — require 'controlled re-entries into the ocean' for all future missions. The interplanetary cat appears to already be out of its earthly bag, however. Currently, more than 2,300 rocket bodies are floating up there somewhere — and are eventually expected to drop down wherever they feel like doing so, reported. 'Airspace authorities will face the challenge of uncontrolled reentries for decades to come,' researchers concluded. Earlier, scientists warned that the rate at which space junk was increasing was coming dangerously close to ruining our view of the stars from down below. 'We can see the fingerprint of human space traffic on stratospheric aerosol,' Troy Thornberry, a research physicist at NOAA's Chemical Sciences Laboratory, said last year.
