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New Indian Express
a day ago
- Business
- New Indian Express
RBI surprises with 50 bps rate cut to support growth amid global uncertainty
CHENNAI: In a stronger-than-expected move, the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Friday slashed the repo rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 5.50%. The decision reflects the central bank's growing concerns over a prolonged inflation fight and increasing growth-inflation trade-offs in a challenging global economic environment. Delivering the policy statement, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra acknowledged that while inflation has broadly moderated, 'the last mile in the disinflation process is proving more persistent than anticipated.' He emphasized that India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable, but the MPC judged that additional policy support is warranted to sustain growth momentum. Why the Bigger Cut? The 50 bps cut—double the market expectation of 25 bps—comes amid: Tepid domestic demand, especially in private consumption and rural spending. Rising global bond yields and tightening financial conditions in developed markets. Volatile crude oil prices, which continue to pose upside risks to inflation. Lingering global uncertainty due to escalating trade tensions, including the impact of recent tariff actions by the US. 'The rate cut is a proactive step to shield India's growth trajectory from evolving global headwinds,' Governor Malhotra said. Policy Outlook While the RBI did not commit to a defined rate path, it reiterated a 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance, signaling that further easing would be data-dependent. The focus, officials said, would remain on achieving durable price stability without derailing growth recovery. Market participants welcomed the move, with bond yields easing and rate-sensitive sectors like banking and real estate showing early gains. Transmission and Impact With a cumulative 75 bps repo rate reduction in 2025, commercial banks are expected to further adjust their External Benchmark-based Lending Rates (EBLRs) and Marginal Cost of Funds-based Lending Rates (MCLR), potentially easing borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
The Hindu
3 days ago
- Business
- The Hindu
RBI's monetary policy panel starts deliberations; decision on June 6
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel started its three-day brainstorming on monetary policy as expectations are high of a 25 Basis Points (bps) or even a jumbo 50 bps rate cut to fuel economic growth amid uncertainties created by Donald Trump's tariff moves. The decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will be announced on Friday (June 6, 2025). The RBI reduced the key interest rate (repo) by 25 bps each in February and April, bringing it to 6%. This could be the third back-to-back reduction in the short-term benchmark lending rate. In response to the 50-bps cut in the policy repo rate since February 2025, most of the banks have reduced their repo-linked External Benchmark-based Lending Rates (EBLRs) and Marginal Cost of funds-based Lending Rate (MCLR). ALSO READ | How does the repo rate work? Experts are of the view that the RBI may reduce the repo rate by 25 bps on Friday (June 26, 2025) and another similar cut in the next policy. However, an SBI research expects the central bank to go in for a "jumbo" rate cut of 50 bps in June itself. Flexibility to prioritise growth CareEdge Ratings said falling inflation will give the RBI the flexibility to prioritise growth amidst external headwinds. 'While growth momentum has improved, challenges like uneven consumption recovery, muted private capex growth, and subdued manufacturing growth remain. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to stay comfortable in 2025-26,' it said. A tough call: On the RBI MPC's first policy review of 2025 "This opens room for further monetary policy easing. We expect the RBI MPC to cut the policy rate by another 50 bps in FY26 (including 25 bps in June), with chances of a deeper rate cut cycle if growth falters," it said. Deepak Aggarwal, Co-founder and Co-CEO of Moneyboxx Finance, said, 'With inflation expected to remain below the RBI's 4% target and growth holding steady, the upcoming MPC meeting presents an encouraging window for a calibrated rate cut.' "A lower interest rate regime, supported by targeted liquidity measures, can meaningfully strengthen credit flow to MSMEs and NBFCs, especially those serving rural and semi-urban regions," Mr. Aggarwal said. Raoul Kapoor, Co-CEO of Andromeda Sales and Distribution, said, 'There are strong indications and widespread expectations that the RBI will implement a third round of rate cut later this week.' Should another 25 bps rate cut occur, it would bring the cumulative rate reduction in the calendar year 2025 to a notable 75 basis points. "The easing of rates not only provides immediate financial relief but also stimulates consumer spending and investment, potentially bolstering overall economic growth. As a result, both existing and potential borrowers can look forward to a more favourable borrowing landscape in the coming months," Mr. Kapoor said. Mandar Pitale, Head, Financial Markets, SBM Bank (India), opined that the upcoming RBI MPC meeting is coming at the backdrop of a strong GDP growth print of 7.4%, which was significantly higher than the market expectation of 6.8%. 'We expect a 25 bp cut in policy rate at the June MPC meeting. This, coupled with the ongoing accommodative stance, will position MPC to react to any data surprises on either side,' Mr. Pitale said, and added 'there may be another 25 bps reduction in August by the RBI.' On his expectations from the 55th meeting of MPC, Rohit Arora, CEO and Co-Founder of Biz2X & Biz2Credit, said, 'A rate cut in the range of 25- 50 basis points appears likely, supported by inflation staying below the 4% target and continued moderation in core inflation.' "This would provide a timely boost to credit flow, especially for MSMEs and housing, while reinforcing growth momentum. While the RBI remains focused on domestic conditions, global cues like the US Fed's projection of two rate cuts in 2025 also provide comfort on the external front," Mr. Arora said. The MPC consists of three members from the RBI and three external members appointed by the government. RBI members are: Governor Sanjay Malhotra, Deputy Governor M Rajeshwar Rao, and Executive Director Rajiv Ranjan. The external members are: Nagesh Kumar, Director and Chief Executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, New Delhi; Shri Saugata Bhattacharya, Economist, Mumbai; and Professor Ram Singh, Director, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi.
