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Fox Sports
2 days ago
- Entertainment
- Fox Sports
Last Night in Baseball: Denzel Clarke made an all-time catch to rob a homer
There is always baseball happening — almost too much baseball for one person to handle themselves. That's why we're here to help, though, by sifting through the previous days' games, and figuring out what you missed, but shouldn't have. Here are all the best moments from last night in Major League Baseball: Clarke makes the catch of the year, and then some Robbing a home run rocks, even if it looks like it was handled pretty easily. Say, if a player gets to wait and wait at the wall, and can time their leap perfectly – that's still a good time, and takes real skill! Which means that what Denzel Clarke pulled off on Monday night against the Angels was downright wild, because he didn't get to camp under this would-be home run at all, and had to reach so far over the wall that he nearly went over it. He made the grab, though. Did he ever. Whew. Dipping well over the wall, spinning in place to right himself, popping back into the field, then celebrating with a full-body flex. There was only one out before the grab, sure, but Clarke can be forgiven being so pumped up that he took a moment before remembering to check to see if anyone was on base. It's one of the best catches you'll ever see, and if you can't take our word for it, you could ask someone who would know for sure. A man who made a great catch or two in his day: Torii Hunter. It's entirely possible that you didn't know who Denzel Clarke was until this catch, or right now, and that's understandable. He's a rookie outfielder for the Athletics, who has played in all of 16 games as he didn't debut until May 23. In these two-plus weeks, though, Clarke has made his mark. There's the above catch, yes, but he had already won Electric Play of the Week honors in consecutive weeks, which only one other player (Riley Greene, h/t Sarah Langs) has done in the past since the award was instituted in 2019. Without any other context, that's impressive, but then you remember Clarke has been up for just two weeks and is absolutely going to win a third week in a row for Monday's robbery, and impressive doesn't begin to cover it. It's not just getting all the way to the wall in center or robbing home runs, either. There's more than the highlight-reel catches: the 25-year-old Clarke, in just 16 games, has amassed 0.6 wins above replacement per FanGraphs' reckoning, and it's entirely due to his glove. He's hitting .219/.245/.294 in 53 plate appearances and striking out more than half the time, which outputs to a negative offensive WAR, but in a lineup as talented as the one the A's have had this year, and with the significant problems their pitching staff has had that have basically negated that lineup's production… Clarke's glove could be worth him being a zero at the plate offensively. And for what it's worth, his minor-league numbers didn't suggest a future offensive star by any means, but they did portend a better performance than this. With time, his big-league line could go from miserable to tolerable, and if the glove keeps putting up the kinds of numbers it has so far, that's going to be more than enough for Clarke to be worth the lineup spot. Rays spoil Anthony's debut The city of Boston was buzzing as Fenway welcomed the long-awaited arrival of top-prospect Roman Anthony – not just their top prospect, but in all of baseball this year. The Rays, however, stole the show. The Rays scored a run in the top of the ninth to extend their lead to 7-5, but the Red Sox answered in the bottom of the frame with a pair to tie it up and send things to extras. Taylor Walls drove Junior Caminero in with a sac fly to give Tampa Bay their eighth run, and the Sox scored on a throwing error by Jonathan Arranda in the bottom of the 10th to stay alive, but they couldn't keep the Rays' offense down. In the 11th, Zack Kelly walked in a run with the bases loaded, and then Jake Mangum would follow with a single that scored Josh Lowe, giving the Rays a 10-8 lead that they would hold onto for the win. Tampa Bay has quietly heated up after a subpar start to the season. They've now won six of their last seven and 15 of their last 19 games, including Monday's 10-8 victory, to move into a tie for second place in the AL East with the Blue Jays. Similarly to the Rays' silent rise, Aranda, out of nowhere, is now fourth in the American League in batting average at .323 after hitting a combined .222 over the first 110 games of his career from 2022 through 2024. On Monday, he went 2-for-4 with two RBIs, pushing his line for the season to .323/.409/.490, good for a 158 OPS+. All of that helps make up for the throwing error, easy. Anthony, by the way, didn't record his first big-league hit in his four trips to the plate, but he did walk and drive in a run on a ground out in that rally in the bottom of the ninth. A walk-off grand slam for Naylor We do see quite few walk-off wins these days, given the extra inning rules with the baserunner on second. That's true enough. Josh Naylor didn't need the baserunner in scoring position, though, in order to get his walk-off hit in the bottom of the 11th in Arizona. And that's because the Diamondbacks' first baseman went deep to win, with the bases juiced. That's right, a walk-off grand slam: Sure, the D-backs just needed the one run to win, but there's something to be said for how emphatic a grand slam is. For example: George Kirby's 14-strikeout game was cause for optimism all day on Monday, given the Mariners had lost five in a row before his gem put a stop to that skid. There's still reason to be optimistic for Seattle, but Naylor might have squashed a bit of it in the moment with a single swing of the bat. A walk-off homer? Painful. A walk-off grand slam? That exclamation point is way too pointy. Sale fans double-digits, again Chris Sale has been on a heater of late. The Braves' ace was just a bit off in his first five starts of the year, either giving up too many runs or walks or not lasting very deep into the games, and it resulted in a 6.17 ERA through his first 23.3 innings. Things have been just a little bit different in his nine starts since, however: over that stretch, Sale has amassed 57.1 innings, a 1.41 ERA, and 75 strikeouts. On three separate occasions in those nine starts, Sale struck out 10 batters, and on Monday, he took down a season-high 11 by way of the K, with the Brewers his swing-and-miss victims this time around. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner now has a 2.74 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 80.2 innings, and while none of those figures are leading the league like they did last year, he's not all that far off of the pace anymore, with that tough start all that's holding him back at this point. Well, numbers-wise: it's fair to say that he's not being held back by anything at all on the mound these days, as the Brewers can attest to after Monday. Phillies back? The Phillies have been struggling of late, with June a nightmare for them so far that has included the conclusion of a sweep by the Brewers and a weekend sweep by the Pirates, of all teams. Maybe a big dub against the Cubs can right that ship a little, though – the Phillies have a ton of talent, after all, and aren't nearly as helpless as they've looked this month. Monday night was a reminder of as much. It had been a pitcher's duel through the first nine innings, but the bats took over in extras. The Cubs had the first say, as Pete Crow-Armstrong picked up a double to score Kyle Tucker and give them a 3-2 lead in the top half of the 11th. The Phillies had an answer. JT Realmuto hit a single to right field, and Nick Castellanos got on his horse to tie the scoring run from second base. Two batters later, Brandon Marsh smoked a walk-off hit to deep center field. Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily! 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Yahoo
28-04-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Takeaways from Giants' impressive 17-game early season stretch
Takeaways from Giants' impressive 17-game early season stretch originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area SAN FRANCISCO — There was a hell of a reward waiting for the Giants after they finished a stretch of 17 games in 17 days. They flew to San Diego on Sunday evening instead of Monday, giving players, coaches and former Padres manager Bob Melvin a full off day in one of this country's best cities. Advertisement 'They've really earned it with the way they've played baseball during this stretch,' Mike Krukow said on the broadcast Sunday. As grueling as this stretch was, it's actually kind of normal for MLB teams this season. The Giants are one of 12 to have a stretch of 17 consecutive games this season, although only them and the Kansas City Royals have had to do it in April. While that would seem to be more difficult given how much time it takes to fully build up starters these days, the Giants actually might have benefited from the timing. They left camp remarkably healthy, and they have lost just one player — backup infielder Casey Schmitt — to the IL this season. They made their first roster move during the stretch of 17 consecutive games, but that's still the only one they've needed all year. At some point, the injuries will hit. They always do. But at the moment, the Giants are healthy, happy, and ready to find some good tacos in San Diego. As they head for a well-deserved day off, here are 17 notes from the impressive 17-day stretch, which ended with a 10-7 record and the Giants in first place: RBI Guy Wilmer Flores went 4-for-35 on the road trip, but still managed to drive in nine runs in 10 games. The overall production was much better once he returned home, and with a bases-loaded walk Sunday, he finished with 14 RBI over the 17 games. Flores, who missed much of last year with a knee injury, also appeared in every game. Advertisement 'It's amazing, especially after last year,' Melvin said of the run production. 'It shows you, it doesn't take ultimate bat speed, it doesn't take 110 (mph) off the bat to impact the game. His track record of being up there in big situations kind of speaks for itself.' Flores heads into the off day leading the majors with 28 RBI. He's one ahead of some guy named Aaron Judge and two ahead of Pete Alonso. The Little Things The biggest difference for the Giants early on might be the fact that they're finally — after years of talking about it — playing fundamentally-sound baseball. They're ranked seventh in FanGraphs' all-encompassing baserunning metric and they have made just 10 errors all year, tied for the least in baseball. Advertisement The advanced metrics haven't been as kind, with Outs Above Average ranking them 27th and Defensive Runs Saved also having them in the bottom third, a lot of which is because of a slow start at short. Willy Adames has been worth negative six DRS and negative five OAA. But overall, the Giants aren't kicking the ball around nearly as often as they did in previous seasons, and that's a big step in the right direction. They're reminded of that every time they watch a team do what the Rangers did Sunday. 2021 Vibes For 162 games — and 107 wins — four years ago, just about everything went right. It's hard not to feel like some of that magic has returned. Here's Exhibit A: Lineup Holes There have been a lot of positives early on, but there are also a few key Giants who can't wait for the calendar to turn to May. Advertisement Adames is hitting .202 and has one homer a year after crushing 32 of them. Patrick Bailey is hitting .164, slugging .247, and still looking for his first homer. Somehow, neither has the lowest OPS of the regulars; LaMonte Wade Jr. is at .460. There are struggles on the bench, too, most notably with Luis Matos, who has two hits in his last 28 at-bats and was 1-for-21 with no walks in six starts during this 17-game stretch. The Giants are hopeful the off day will clear some heads, and they need it to happen. Winning games with late walk-offs is fun, but at some point the lack of production from key spots is going to catch up to them. Who's On First? With the bases loaded in the first inning Sunday, Wade jumped on a sinker and hit one into the arcade — but it was foul by about 20 feet. Three pitches later, he missed a two-run double by a few feet. Two pitches after that, he smoked a 107 mph liner — right at second baseman Marcus Semien. Advertisement When you're cold, you're cold, and nobody has had a rougher month than Wade, who lost the leadoff job and is hitting just .110. The Giants will stick with him, in part because there's simply been a lot of bad luck. Wade's walk rate is in line with previous years and he has struck out just once in his last eight games after some early concerns. He's sitting on a .135 BABIP, about 140 points below his career average. The Giants also will be patient because there are no clear solutions. Schmitt is on the IL, joining Jerar Encarnacion, who will start taking swings this week but isn't eligible to return until May 23. Veteran Jake Lamb is struggling in Triple-A. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge hit a homer in his first at-bat of the year, but then missed two games with an illness. He's 2-for-13 so far in Double-A and the Giants plan to be extremely patient with his development. The starts will continue to be there for Wade, who could use a little luck as he tries to come out of this. Stressful Job In New York, two-time All-Star Devin Williams has temporarily been removed from the closer role. In Cleveland, Emmanuel Clase — who finished third in Cy Young voting last year — has a 7.15 ERA. Advertisement It's extremely difficult to find a closer who churns out one strong season after the next, and when those guys falter, there's no safety net. It often costs you a game, and Ryan Walker lived that at the end of the road trip. Walker gave up four runs in Anaheim and then was pulled after nearly blowing another save against the Brewers, but he looked much better over the weekend, and the Giants are hopeful this will just be a two-game blip. 'I know it's been a few rough outings in a row but the stuff has been there all year,' Bailey said Saturday. 'It happens, it happens to the best of them — and he is one of the best of them.' Walker's fastball velocity is right in line with 2024 and his slider has been just about as effective, but hitters are batting .348 against his fastball. He made some mechanical adjustments last week and felt his command got much better, and it seems the Giants avoided any additional questions about their closer. A Helping Hand The Giants have the luxury of having a former All-Star closer who wants to return to the ninth at some point, and he shined when Walker needed some backup. Camilo Doval had three saves in the series against the Brewers and picked up the win on Sunday after a clean ninth. Advertisement During the 17-game stretch, Doval threw 7 2/3 shutout innings over eight appearances, allowing just one hit with two walks and eight strikeouts. Prior to that, he had allowed runs in three straight appearances. Walk This Way Matt Chapman has reached base in 25 of 29 games, including 16 of 17 during this stretch. He drew 18 walks in the 17 games and is tied for the lead in the Majors with Atlanta's Marcell Ozuna with 26. This is all somewhat new for Chapman, who is 32 and in his ninth big-league season. He is just about doubling his previous best walk rate in the majors and he's more than double last year's rate of 9.9 percent. A Red Flag The 2025 Giants have a .311 on-base percentage and are slugging .377. The 2024 Giants had a .305 OBP and slugged .396. The 2023 Giants had a .312 OBP and slugged .383. Advertisement The Giants averaged 4.6 runs over the 17 games, but their OPS actually was lower than their season-ending mark in each of their last two campaigns. In a lot of ways, this offense isn't any better than the one that was an issue under the previous regime, but they've been good with runners in scoring position and their bullpen has been outstanding, which allowed them to win five one-run games over the past 17 days. Right now, this is a top-heavy lineup that is leaning very, very heavily on Jung Hoo Lee, Mike Yastrzemski, Chapman and Flores' ability to drive in runs in key spots. If there's anything that keeps team officials up at night, even at 19-10, it's probably this. They're one or two injuries to key starters away from having one of the worst offenses in the league. The Long Man The Giants haven't made a single move with their pitching staff this season, which is remarkable given how the previous five years looked. Buster Posey wants continuity, and it certainly helped that several starters — especially in Philadelphia — avoided blowups that would have led to a fresh arm being added. Advertisement It also helped that Spencer Bivens took on such a heavy workload over these 17 games. The right-hander threw 8 1/3 innings over five outings, and on three occasions he gave Melvin at least six outs. After allowing a run in each of his first three appearances this season, Bivens has given up just two hits over his last five, all of which have been scoreless. Birds Flying High While he waits for a rotation spot to open up, Hayden Birdsong is helping to win a lot of games as a high-leverage reliever who is giving Melvin length. Birdsong pitched twice on the homestand, throwing three shutout innings each time and striking out nine. He has 18 strikeouts in 16 innings this year and is sitting on a 1.13 ERA. As a reliever, Birdsong is averaging 96.5 mph with his fastball and holding opposing hitters to a .130 average. They're even worse (.111) against his new changeup. Advertisement Eventually, Birdsong will return to starting, likely for good, but right now he's a heck of a weapon in close games. He entered in the sixth or seventh inning four times during this 17-game stretch and helped the Giants close out three wins. Keeping The Door Closed When a Giants starter struggles, it's impossible to ignore the fact that Birdsong is literally right there. Thus far, the Giants haven't seemed at all close to making a move, including with Jordan Hicks, who pitched four times during the 17 days and allowed 20 runs. Just two of those came Sunday, though, and it looks like Hicks might have found something. Hicks' velocity was down across the board Sunday, including 3.4 mph on his sinker, which was sitting at 99 mph on the road trip. But he changed it up Sunday and went slider-heavy, getting eight swinging strikes on the pitch. There are some within the organization who also believe it wouldn't be the worst thing if he dialed it back on the velocity; he found a lot of success early last season while focusing on having good command and getting plenty of movement on his sinker. Advertisement Sunday seemed to be a step in the right direction for Hicks, who needed the break in the schedule as much as anybody. No Production Loss With Koss Christian Koss stepped in over the weekend after Tyler Fitzgerald bruised his chest on a dive and the rookie contributed in both of his starts. His single on Sunday tied the game in the bottom of the fourth, and he had a hit in all five starts during the 17 games. One of the reasons the Giants put him on their bench was their belief that his simple swing and approach would allow him to contribute even if he had to sit four or five days in a row, and that's been the case. 'I'm just trying to have consistent, quality at-bats and put good swings on balls,' Koss said Sunday. Advertisement Koss also became the first position player to take the mound for the Giants this year and threw a scoreless inning. He joined Brandon Crawford and Pablo Sandoval atop the franchise's ERA leaderboard. Rising Randy Randy Rodriguez went a week without pitching recently, but it had nothing to do with his performance or any minor ailment. Melvin wants to use him as the bullpen's 'fireman' and Rodriguez got up several times, only to see a starting pitcher get himself out of a jam. This is similar to the role Walker had before getting elevated to the ninth, and Rodriguez looks capable of following that path down the road. He has started his season with 11 straight appearances without allowing a run or a walk, the longest season-opening streak ever by a Giants pitcher. Rodriguez is the first MLB pitcher to do it since Baltimore's Yennier Cano in 2023. Cano went 17 straight scoreless/walkless appearances to start that year and ended up making the All-Star team. Hey Now, You're … Speaking of All-Stars, if the team were picked today, Tyler Rogers would have one of the strongest cases in the clubhouse. His 0.63 ERA is the best among pitchers with at least 14 innings pitched this season and he has held the opponent scoreless in 14 of 15 outings. Advertisement Rogers pitched eight times over the 17 games and is tied for the National League lead in appearances. Opponents are hitting just .156 against his fastball, which averages 82.7 mph. Playoffs? Playoffs? Per FanGraphs, the Giants' odds of making the postseason currently are 58.6 percent, although that's not a monumental jump from their last off day. After winning nine of their first 12 games, they were at 48.9 percent. The lack of major movement is in part because they're in a division with four teams that are currently above the 40 percent mark. The NL West is where the Giants have seen some real changes, though. They entered the year with a 2.3 percent chance of winning the division and were at 6.1 percent on their last off day. Currently, they're at 10 percent, which is well ahead of what anyone projected during the spring, but also still well behind the Dodgers' 75.7 percent. The NL Best Before you finish this, take a moment and send some kind thoughts Colorado's way. The Rockies are 4-23, and they have five more months to go in the best division in baseball. Advertisement The Giants are 19-10, and they would be smart to keep pushing while some of their division rivals are trying to get right. The Padres have been one of the best teams in baseball all year, but they have 11 players on the IL, including Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth, and that started to show in recent days. They've lost seven of nine as the Giants come to town. Since the start of this 17-game stretch for the Giants, the Dodgers have gone 8-6. Both Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are dealing with shoulder discomfort, and the heavy, heavy favorites certainly look more vulnerable than anyone expected. The Arizona Diamondbacks are without star Ketel Marte and their vaunted rotation is underperforming. They're 15-13 and in fourth place. The West is very likely to be the best division in baseball for 162 games, but last week was a rough one. As the Giants start seeing some division rivals, this is the time to keep banking wins. Advertisement Download and follow the Giants Talk Podcast
New York Times
26-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Keith Law's predictions, projections and wild guesses for the 2025 MLB season
It's an annual tradition: My column explaining why I think your favorite team isn't going to win as many games as you think they are. These predictions are for fun, not a demonstration of my deep-seated loathing for your favorite team, and not the product of a sophisticated machine-learning algorithm to produce impeccable forecasts. I make it all up, and then I talk about it. (I do, however, rely on FanGraphs' projections as a starting point for several things here, especially some individual player projections, and this piece would be far harder without them.) Advertisement I've done this for at least 15 years now, and the reactions are always the same — people look for what I said about their favorite teams and then yell at me about it. I got one division winner right last year, and for the second year in a row a team I picked to finish in fourth place in their division won the pennant (the Yankees). This should be an annual favorite column for people who like to tell me I don't know what I'm talking about. You want proof? I'll give you proof, every year, in 3,000 words or so. So, here are my projections for the 2025 season, including playoff results and post-season awards. Disagree all you like, as long as you enjoy. I guess I'm late to the party, predicting the Red Sox to win their division (and, in this case, to have the best record in the league). They did more to upgrade their roster this winter than any other team in the American League, and they've made the right call at second base, giving Kristian Campbell the nod. On paper, I think they're the best team in the AL, likely to lead or come close to leading the league in runs scored and be at or above the median in run prevention. That said, there's some significant downside risk in that rotation: Garrett Crochet has had only one full season as a starter, Walker Buehler's first year back from his second Tommy John surgery was not a success, and the guys who were supposed to be their next three starters are all going to start the year on the injured list. The Orioles were perfectly situated to make a big move with the Yankees losing Juan Soto, but they made a lot of small moves that don't seem to add up to the big move, so their rotation remains a real weakness for a team that is trying to get to the World Series — and has the lineup and defense to do so. They don't have a true No. 1 starter; they have a few guys who could be No. 2s on a good team, but neither Grayson Rodriguez nor Kyle Bradish is going to pitch a full season in 2025, and there's a decent chance the Orioles don't get 20 starts from the two combined. I'm over the fascination with Ryan Mountcastle — they have better options, including Coby Mayo, just optioned to the minor leagues the other day. Advertisement Tampa Bay losing Shane McClanahan for a month or more could hurt them significantly because they're likely to be on the playoff bubble, so each marginal win is especially important to their odds of seeing October. They're still likely to be an above-average run prevention team, but they're running back almost the same offense that was the worst in the American League last year (well, among non-White Sox teams), only adding a full season of Junior Caminero. I might have picked the Yankees to win the division before they lost Gerrit Cole for the year; he was a 5 to 7 WAR pitcher in 2021 and 2023, and replacing him with … well, whoever they replace him with is at least that much of a downgrade, maybe more if they have to hand those starts to guys who are below replacement level. Clarke Schmidt is out, Luis Gil is out, and Soto's gone. I loved the pickup of Max Fried, but there's only so much slack he can pick up. The Yankees' path to the postseason would include a breakout year from Anthony Volpe, a Rookie of the Year-level campaign from Jasson Domínguez, and a full year of the Jazz Chisholm Jr. they got in August and September. (Yes, that'd be a 6-win season. He's physically capable of it.) The Blue Jays are just in a bad spot; whether Roki Sasaki would have made them contenders is immaterial, as it would have at least changed fans' perception of the team and validated the club's previous attempts to sign some of the best free agents on the market. Now they're left with a team that might be competitive in either Central division or the AL West, but not this one. Their bullpen, one of the worst in MLB history in 2024, should be better, both from the addition of Jeff Hoffman, the re-acquisition of Yimi García and from regression (up) to the mean. It irks me to put a team that did nothing to improve itself this winter atop its division, but the Twins are still the best AL Central team on paper. They added three players, all free agents on one-year deals worth a total of $10.25 million, which is what you find in the dictionary if you look up the word 'not-trying.' (Fine, two words.) They were a bit unlucky last year, finishing just 82-80 with an above-average offense and average run prevention. The Royals, on the other hand, did try to get better this offseason, but they were working uphill to some degree as their 2024 season saw them get over 150 starts from five guys, four of whom were better than league average. They re-signed Michael Wacha, brought in some pitching depth, and traded for Jonathan India, who gives them a viable OBP threat to get on base in front of Bobby Witt Jr. The pitching depth — in the forms of Michael Lorenzen and Carlos Estévez — is a modest insurance policy against the inevitable starts some of their four returning starters will miss, but it's not going to cover them if one of them misses half the season. At least they did something. Advertisement The Tigers are in a similar boat as the Orioles — they had all the room in the world to add talent, and did almost nothing, just bringing in Gleyber Torres on a one-year, make-good contract that blocked Jace Jung at the only position he can realistically play right now. (Torres is a good bounce-back candidate, though, just not a great fit here.) Their own improbable playoff run last season isn't something they can replicate over 162 games, and even if Tarik Skubal has another Cy Young season, they're going to need two more starters to step forward and more. Cleveland won the division last year with 92 wins, but it was a huge fluke, between their outlier performance with runners in scoring position (sorry, that's not a separate skill) and the outlier performance of their bullpen. They also didn't do anything to get better this winter, trading their starting second baseman for some pitching depth, re-acquiring Nolan Jones, and bringing back Carlos Santana, who may or may not be older than the guy who played 'Oye Cómo Va.' Unless they just happen to get exceptional performances out of everyone for a second year in a row, they've got regression written all over them. And yet they could still end up winning this weak division. The White Sox should be better this year just by chance, although fate seems to be conspiring against them with Drew Thorpe now the fifth pitcher in the organization to blow out his elbow just this spring. Just by runs scored and allowed last year, they should have won around 48 games, and this year they should have more players coming than going, with Luis Robert Jr. the one member of the lineup or rotation with significant trade value right now. A 107-loss season would be a 14-game improvement over 2024. The Mariners have a playoff-caliber rotation and led the league in ERA last year; even with George Kirby missing the start of this season, they're going to be among the best run-prevention teams again in 2025. They were an 89-win team by runs scored and allowed last year, so there's enough here to see them potentially winning the division even though they didn't make any big improvements or additions this winter. Julio Rodríguez seems like a good bet to return to his 2023-24 form, which should be worth another win or two. The Rangers were active this offseason, making marginal improvements to a roster that's not that dissimilar from the one that won the World Series in 2023. Their fate this year may come down to health more than anything — namely, Jacob deGrom, Evan Carter, Jonathan Gray — as well as whether they pull the plug quickly if Adolis García doesn't show immediate improvement this spring. The Astros lost two of their best players from 2024, with Alex Bregman leaving in free agency after they traded Kyle Tucker for Cam Smith and Isaac Paredes, a deal that might not make them any worse off this year than they would have been if they'd kept Tucker. The rotation looks thin for the first time in a while, with very little room for error if any of their starters has to miss a significant amount of time (especially now that Luis García is already dealing with elbow soreness), and unless they have a run like the Royals did last year, with their starters almost never missing a turn, they'll probably fall just short of the playoffs. The Athletics' stadium situation may be a joke, a punchline delivered by John Fisher with laughter provided by the league, but the team on the field is actually getting better. The extension they gave Lawrence Butler won't win them any more games this year, but it does underscore the tremendous scouting and player development job there, as their 2018 sixth-round pick might now be their best player. Nick Kurtz, their 2024 first-rounder, won't be too long in reaching the majors, and the rotation is credible, if not exactly contender quality. Advertisement The Angels added Yusei Kikuchi to their rotation and picked up some stragglers for the lineup, but it's hard to see those moves making this team competitive, let alone a contender, given the returning roster and the massive unknown that is Mike Trout's availability. They were third-worst in the AL in run-scoring last year and second-worst in run prevention. They might be a little better in both categories and still lose 90 games. Atlanta didn't make any huge moves this winter, but they'll get Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr., back early this season, and that may be all they needed to do. Sean Murphy's injury opens the door for their top prospect Drake Baldwin to get some big-league time, and I wouldn't be surprised if he acquits himself well enough to make demoting him a tough decision. Jurickson Profar probably won't repeat his huge 2024 season, but he could give half of that value back and still be an upgrade for them in left. The Mets did make some huge moves this winter, signing the best free agent in the class in Juan Soto, and the expectation now is World Series or bust, or something like that. Getting to the playoffs should be the real expectation, and whatever happens in October is about luck and health more than preparation or fast-food mascots. (We're all in the pockets of Big Purple, though.) The rotation doesn't fill me with confidence, with a whole mess of oft-injured starters and one converted reliever somehow expected to prevent enough runs to help them win the division. I could see them winning 98 games, and I could see them winning 84. The Phillies added a starter, Jesús Luzardo, and an outfielder, Max Kepler, to a club that won 95 games last year, although they didn't address the flaw that keeps killing them in the offseason, the aging lineup, especially its right-handed bats. That group is a year older, according to my math, and the hitters who didn't make some needed adjustments last year aren't that likely to be any different this year. The rotation will be one of the best in baseball, again, and the rest of the team is more than good enough to get them into October, but they'll need luck and maybe another bat to get back to the World Series. The Nationals stood pat in a winter where they probably could have kicked the rebuild into second gear, as the first wave of players from their biggest trades and from their era of high draft picks has largely hit the majors already. C.J. Abrams, Mackenzie Gore, James Wood, Dylan Crews, Josiah Gray (when he returns from surgery) … that's the start of a good team, but just the start. The second wave will be in High A and Low A to start this year, so there isn't going to be much more help coming from the farm in 2025. The Marlins are going to be one of the worst teams in baseball, by design largely, as they traded away almost everyone good and anyone left who's good should probably rent by the hour. I heard the clubbies wrote Sandy Alcantara's name on his locker in disappearing ink. The Cubs traded for Kyle Tucker, and maybe that's enough to put them over the top in a division where nobody else did anything so substantial. They should see some improvements from within, and get a boost from Matt Shaw taking over at third base. Another starting pitcher would have been nice, one better than rotation insurance like Matt Boyd; if those running the team were willing to pony up for Alex Bregman, they should have done so for Corbin Burnes. I'll predict the Brewers miss the playoffs, and they'll probably make the playoffs, again. In my defense, teams that rely on … uh, defense are a little harder to predict, at least in my experience of making errant predictions. I'm thrilled that they're putting Joey Ortiz, a plus defender at short, at his natural position, to take Willy Adames' spot; I'm less thrilled that they may be punting on third base. I'm more concerned about the rotation than the lineup, though; they've pulled some good starters out of some very small hats in recent years, and while I believe they're good at getting the most out of certain types of starters, their margin for error keeps shrinking. Advertisement I wanted to get the Reds closer to the playoffs, at least, as my gut says they've accumulated enough talent to get to 85+ wins if they get some good fortune on the health side, but my rational side couldn't get there. They were actually a below-average offensive team last year, sitting right at the league median in runs per game even playing half their contests in a great hitter's park. They'll be a little better this year with Matt McLain back, and maybe they'll get something from Christian Encarnacion-Strand, but an outfield of Austin Hays, Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl is going to be one of the least productive of any would-be contender's. The Pirates might be without their No. 2 starter, Jared Jones, for a while, and their offense remains one of the weakest in baseball. I'm not a big Spencer Horwitz believer, at least not enough to trade Luis Ortiz and two high-beta left-handed pitching prospects for him. I was hoping they'd give Nick Yorke the second-base job, as I think he's their best option there, and maybe he'll be back in the majors early enough in the season to boost the offense a little. They had the third-worst offense in the NL last year and I don't expect them to escape the bottom five. The Dodgers … yeah. Did you really come here to see what I had to say about the Dodgers? They won the World Series and signed two pitchers who could be aces. Hi ho. I didn't like 'Mookie Betts, Opening Day Shortstop' even before this week's news that he's lost a ton of weight due to an illness. Maybe Alex Freeland gets a shot at some point before the All-Star break? There, I found something to say about them that doesn't come down to how much money they have. Arizona signed Corbin Burnes, who should be their best starter this year, and they might see improvements this year from returning rotation members Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson, plus a full season of Merrill Kelly. Losing Christian Walker stings; getting Josh Naylor at least softens the blow. Jordan Lawlar will get 200 at-bats somewhere later in the year, and be productive. In another division, maybe any of the five other divisions, I'd pick the Diamondbacks to win. Or, to put it another way, if things implode in L.A., the Diamondbacks have set themselves up to take advantage. The Padres' run of contention isn't necessarily over, but the window is closing. At least they kept Dylan Cease to try to take one more shot at the playoffs; if they're out of it at the break, he and Michael King are probably goners, and I'd probably be shopping Luis Arraez and most of the bullpen too. The scenario that gets them into October one more time is an MVP-caliber year from Fernando Tatis Jr., a relatively healthy rotation, and a surprise bounce-back year from one of the older hitters, like Xander Bogaerts. It's unlikely they get all of that at once. The Giants spent some money this offseason to make the team better in a division where 'better' might still mean fourth place. This looks more like a development year, with Heliot Ramos, Hayden Birdsong, and maybe later in the year Kyle Harrison, Marco Luciano, et al getting reps in the majors to keep growing and making adjustments — or to show the new front office that they're not part of the future. I don't want to see Bryce Eldridge anywhere near here until at least the second half. He won't turn 21 until October and he's done nothing to show us he's ready to hit major-league pitching. Colorado seems like they should have a rookie somewhere on the field or in the rotation, no? They're just not that young for a team that's probably going to lose 100 games, with only two lineup members (Ezquiel Tovar and Jordan Beck) and zero rotation members born in this century. I'm hopeful that by Aug. 1, the lineup has at least two more young'uns, maybe Kyle Karros and Adael Amador, and the rotation has Chase Dollander and maybe even Sean Sullivan in it. The first-half version might be hard to watch, though. Tampa Bay defeats Minnesota Seattle defeats Baltimore Arizona defeats New York Mets Philadelphia defeats Chicago Cubs Boston defeats Tampa Bay Seattle defeats Texas Los Angeles Dodgers defeat Philadelphia Atlanta defeats Arizona Boston defeats Seattle Atlanta defeats Los Angeles Atlanta defeats Boston Last year was an aberration — really, the first half was an aberration, and the second half was more what we expect from Rodríguez, .285/.337/.482. I'm predicting he does that and more over a full season. Also, José Ramírez seems like a permanent threat to win this, even though he's never actually come out on top. Advertisement Too obvious? I thought about Elly De La Cruz, who exploded last year for a five-win season, but for him to top that I think he'd have to really make a big leap in his swing decisions and plate discipline. The guy in Los Angeles probably has a shot, too. No, not him, the other one. No, not him, either. Well, one of those guys. Gilbert throws a lot of innings, doesn't walk anyone, misses enough bats, and if he has one year where a couple of homers stay in the park instead, he's going to win the Cy Young Award. I'll just say it happens this year. I feel like this should be everybody's pick. He might have the best stuff of any starter in baseball right now, at least considering the entire arsenal. The only things that might stop him are injury or the Pirates (meaning they limit his innings). Campbell won the second base job in the waning days of spring training, and he's likely to get a long runway even if he starts slow, giving him a big leg up on the competition for this honor. Other candidates include the Yankees' Jasson Domínguez, Detroit's Jackson Jobe, and Texas' Kumar Rocker. Sasaki's a boring, obvious pick, because he's a big leaguer — he played several years in NPB, and was dominant there, so we have good reason to think he'll pitch well enough here to be the best rookie in the NL. Plus he has a job, which only a few other rookies have on Opening Day. Other contenders here include Washington's Dylan Crews, the Cubs' Matt Shaw, and Atlanta's Drake Baldwin — all position players, who historically have had an advantage in this award over pitchers. (Photo illustration of Julio Rodríguez and Orlando Arcia: Steph Chambers and John Fisher / Getty Images)
New York Times
19-03-2025
- Health
- New York Times
MLB insiders rank starting pitchers, from ‘just a guy' to No. 1
Editor's Note: This article is part of our Rankings & Tiers series, an evaluation across sport about the key players, front offices, teams, franchises and much more. By Andy McCullough, Will Sammon and Sahadev Sharma The email from the New York Yankees arrived just past 6 p.m. a little more than a week before the first game of the 2025 MLB season. The subject line was short but sinister, a harbinger of bad tidings for both the team and the sport writ large at the start of the year. Advertisement Update on RHP Gerrit Cole The news contained in the message was not a surprise. Cole — the 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner, once the recipient of the most lucrative pitching contract in baseball history, a paragon of good health and good habits — would require Tommy John surgery to repair his right elbow. He would not pitch in 2025. His return date was uncertain. His quest to help the Yankees capture a title would be delayed. His pursuit of the Hall of Fame would be paused. And once more, as has happened so often in recent years, the baseball season would begin with a reminder about the fragility of its most precious assets. Last year started with serious injuries to stars such as Shane Bieber and Spencer Strider. The prominence of the ailments prompted greater interest in a study commissioned by MLB to determine the root cause of rising injury rates. The study determined that increases in velocity, added emphasis on spin and training to throw with maximum effort were contributing to all the surgeries. In other words: the things that make pitchers great also make pitchers break. This is not an entirely new phenomenon. The task of pitching has always been unhealthy and unnatural, a race against the clock. Maybe the clock just ticks faster now. Maybe the hourglass contains less sand. All of this makes it harder to answer one of baseball's oldest questions: Who is an ace? The criteria used to be elevated but simple. An ace was dependable. An ace made life miserable for hitters. An ace avoided the injured list. An ace was the sort of pitcher whose name on the marquee in October inspired confidence in teammates and fans alike. For the past six years, The Athletic has been surveying experts around the game to determine who are the aces. Once again we convened a panel of 20, with expertise in scouting, player development and analytics. The executives, scouts and analysts we consulted were granted anonymity in order to offer opinions. Each member of the panel filled out a survey featuring 80 pitchers. The list included the top 50 in FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement in 2024, plus 30 others we thought merited consideration. To make things easier on our panel, we excluded pitchers who did not appear in 2024, which is why you won't see Shohei Ohtani, Strider or Eury Pérez on this list. (Because we do love to mystify our respondents, we continue to include Jacob deGrom.) Advertisement For each player, the panelist provided a scouting grade, from a No. 1 pitcher to a No. 5. This is the present-day grade on these pitchers: Who they are right now. If a respondent wanted to denote that the pitcher could one day become a No. 1, the grade included an asterisk, classifying status as an 'applicant.' The grading system is also straightforward. A No. 1 grade nets five points, a No. 2 grade nets four, No. 3 nets three, No. 4 nets two and No. 5 nets one. An asterisk adds a half point to the score. We culled the list down to a top 50, split into five tiers: Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle: The unanimous No. 1s. Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces: The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October. Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Doorstep Knockers: The pitchers who might one day call themselves aces. Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s: Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball. Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — No. 4s and No. 5s: Everyone else. The players talented enough to reach and stick in the major leagues, but still a level below the elite. When we sent out these surveys in January and February, Cole was included. He received 14 No. 1 votes. Only three pitchers scored higher than him. But because he will not participate in the 2025 season, he won't be featured here. With that in mind, let's try to answer the question that changes each spring: Who are baseball's aces? The former teammates took a tumble last season. Scherzer was bedeviled by injuries. Verlander looked suddenly hittable. (Fellow future Cooperstown inductee Clayton Kershaw logged only 30 innings in 2024 and is currently recovering from multiple surgeries.) Yet both players merited sizable one-year contracts for 2025. Verlander will earn $15 million pitching in the Bay Area, in a ballpark that one evaluator suggested could aid a revival. The Blue Jays placed a $15.5 million wager on Scherzer remaining successful. 'Who knows?' one scout said. 'Could be a No. 1. Could be done.' If you're wondering why the Red Sox offered $21 million to a pitcher with a 5.38 ERA, look no further than the final inning of the 2024 season. Buehler emerged from the bullpen to slam the door on the Yankees and deliver a championship to Los Angeles. 'He gave you some reminders in October about how good he can be,' one scout said. Advertisement Few would question Buehler's gumption. But there are lingering concerns about his ability to handle the rigors of a big-league season, especially after two elbow reconstructions. Buehler, one evaluator explained, 'can be electric or can be lost.' He was one of the best pitchers in the sport from 2018 to 2021. 'Might not be a ton of staying power, but betting on one more good year out of him,' one scout said. In transitioning back to starting after a couple years in relief, López exceeded expectations in 2024, even if he did not log enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Unfortunately for him, our pool of respondents remains skeptical about his ability to repeat. 'He must be able to prove he can do it again, and for a full season,' one scout said. After Cole first got hurt last spring, Gil stabilized the Yankees' pitching staff and eventually won American League Rookie of the Year. But his results worsened as the season went along and scouts harbor concerns about his struggles throwing strikes. An even more ominous note was struck earlier this month, when Gil experienced a strained lat muscle. He will miss the first couple months of the season. Another talented youngster with some injury concerns. Bello will start the season on the injured list as he recovers from a sore shoulder. He got knocked around by left-handed hitters and does not really possess a strikeout pitch, our respondents noted. His second season in the Bronx went better than his first. Rodón made 32 starts for the first time in his career. At times, he looked like the pitcher who enticed the Yankees into a $162 million pact. But he is still far more homer-prone than he was during his peak in 2021 and 2022. With Cole out, the Yankees need him more than ever. 'In a career of ups and downs, does he have one more big ride up?' one scout wondered. Eflin is the most reliable starter on an Orioles team with championship aspirations. When he is healthy, one scout explained, he is 'the definition of a steady, middle-of-the-rotation guy.' Another scout described him as a 'kitchen-sink guy,' a pitcher lacking bat-missing pitches who could collapse if his command falters. Kikuchi parlayed a strong, 10-start stint with Houston after the trade deadline into a three-year, $63.7 million deal with the Angels. The Astros encouraged him to swap out sliders for curveballs, which led to 76 strikeouts in 60 innings. 'I'm buying the post-deadline Astros production,' one executive said. 'Kikuchi is nastier than he gets credit for.' Flaherty makes his triumphant return to this list. He ranked seventh in the inaugural edition and sixth in 2021. Back then, our respondents debated Flaherty versus Buehler as the best young pitcher in the sport. The next few years were problematic for both. Flaherty hurt his shoulder. He stopped missing bats. He flopped after the Cardinals traded him to Baltimore in 2023. Advertisement The 2024 season represented a comeback. With improved deception and sharpened command, Flaherty excelled in the opening months of his one-year contract with Detroit. The Dodgers acquired him to aid their patchwork rotation. Flaherty helped his childhood team win the World Series and joined in the city-wide jubilee. Yet a lucrative multiyear deal did not await him back on the market this winter. There were worries about his flagging velocity during the postseason. 'Absolutely no one is buying what this dude did in '24 as repeatable,' one scout said. The Tigers were happy to reunite with him on a two-year, $35 million contract. His command can be erratic and he gives up plenty of hits, but Gore took steps forward in 2024. Several scouts suggested he can grow into a reliable No. 3 starter, which is nothing to sneeze at. After Senga won the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2023, his second act was a bust. He appeared in just one regular-season game. He hurt his shoulder in the spring, strained his calf upon his summertime return and pitched only a handful of innings during the OMG Mets' run to the National League Championship Series. One scout suggested the Mets should shift to a six-man rotation to maximize Senga's ability. 'Let him pitch once a week,' the scout said. 'You'll get more out of him. He's electric when he's right.' With Framber Valdez poised to reach free agency, Brown could become the headliner of Houston's rotation after this season. Time is still on his side, although some of our respondents worried about his walk rate. 'He has stuff and deception, but we may be in a roller-coaster season each year until the command improves,' one scout said. With his new $75 million deal, Eovaldi is set to earn more than $200 million for his career. That's a hefty sum for a guy who has never thrown 200 innings in a season, never won 15 games and never finished in the top three in Cy Young voting. Why does Eovaldi keep getting paid? He delivers in October. He burnished his postseason legacy with a 2.95 ERA in six starts during Texas' 2023 World Series run. Eovaldi, one scout said, 'is a No. 1 in the playoffs.' Added another, Eovaldi's 'statistics are that of a No. 3, but there's few (other) guys you'd want in a big game because his stuff is still elite.' Peralta is a consistent package. A lot of strikeouts. A lot of walks. Too many dingers. He maintained his fastball velocity in 2024, which had been a concern earlier in his career. Miller is the first of many Mariners to make this list. Only Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal threw a more effective fastball last season than Miller's 95 mph heater, according to Sports Info Solutions. 'He throws 6 pitches with varying success, and yet it's the fastball that makes him successful,' one scout said. An uptick in home runs contributed to Gray's inflated ERA in 2024. He's reached the age where negative trends could signal catastrophe. But Gray has pulled himself back from the brink several times already in his career. Maybe he'll cut down on the dingers and get back to the form he displayed during his 2022-23 run with Minnesota. For more than a decade, every left-handed pitcher has looked into a mirror and thought, 'Maybe I should just rip off Chris Sale.' Last year Manaea became the first to actually succeed. After he started aping Sale's sidewinder delivery, Manaea posted a 3.09 ERA in his final 12 starts, which was enough to convince the Mets to bring him back on a three-year, $75 million deal. Advertisement Before his impersonation act took hold, Manaea was a serviceable if limited pitcher. One executive noted that Manaea benefited from a .215 batting average on balls in play in the second half, the sort of number that is hard to sustain. He'll also start the season on the injured list due to an oblique problem. 'Adjustments from last year are real,' one scout said. 'Health is a question.' His fastball misses bats. He throws strikes. He pitches in the American League Central. If Ryan can put together a healthy full season, he could rise on this list. Sánchez generated a lot of buzz from his Grapefruit League outings. His improved fastball velocity garnered notice, especially coming off such a successful season in 2024. One executive described him as 'the most underrated pitcher in baseball.' The executive went on to say that 'It's the Logan Webb mold of no walks and all grounders, but in the mid 90s from the left side.' Sánchez could zoom closer to the top of this list if he lives up to the hype. The trending arrows on Gausman are pointing downward as he enters the backstretch of his five-year, $110 million contract. His strikeout rate tumbled from 31.1 percent in 2023 to 21.4 percent in 2024. Hitters teed off on his sinker, which he incorporated into his mix to limit his reliance on four-seam fastballs and splitters. Even so — still a pretty good deal for the Blue Jays. Yet another young pitcher with arm problems. Rodriguez was shut down earlier this month after experiencing discomfort in his elbow. The Orioles have expressed optimism that Rodriguez will not require Tommy John surgery. The note remains ominous. The consistent struggles to stay on the field have limited his rise, several of our respondents noted. The underlying metrics suggest López performed in 2024 at about the same rate as he did in 2023, when he landed on a few American League Cy Young Award ballots. He has made 32 starts in each of the past three years. 'I'm still thinking he's got some premium seasons in him, even if 2024 wasn't amazing,' one scout said. Lugo is baseball's Patron Saint of Conversion. After five years as a low-leverage reliever for the Mets, he bet on his ability to shift back into starting in 2023. A solid season in San Diego set him up for a tremendous campaign with the Royals last season. Lugo finished second in American League Cy Young Award voting — not bad for a guy who used to pitch the sixth inning. He excelled by matching his nine-pitch arsenal to the weaknesses of hitters. Even those respondents who doubted Lugo's ability to repeat in 2025 commended him for the performance. 'He's fun to watch because he can really pitch and manipulate the baseball,' one scout said. In case you were wondering: Yes, all five members of Seattle's starting rotation made the cut. In an era when pitchers are using more offspeed pitches, Woo relies on his fastball. He rotates between four-seamers and sinkers. He generates more soft contact than whiffs. It's an interesting profile, if he can stay healthy. An elbow injury kept him on the shelf for more than a month in 2024. Several of our respondents noted that if Bibee played in a bigger market, he'd get more attention. Well, that's why this exercise exists. Part of the reason Bibee can't quite crack the realm of would-be aces is he 'doesn't quite have the s— to get there,' as one scout put it. So be it. He's still pretty good. His teammate Gavin Williams could join him on this list next year. Darvish spent a portion of 2024 away from the Padres, tending to a personal matter. When he returned, he displayed the same beguiling mixture of pitches and speeds that has made him so effective for more than a decade. The Dodgers took about two good swings against him in two postseason starts. Unfortunately for Darvish and San Diego, both of those swings resulted in homers in the decisive Game 5. Steele missed time last September with elbow tendonitis, but made it back for two starts before the season ended. He gets better results than some of our respondents would expect based on the quality of his arsenal. One executive compared Jones, the Robin to a certain Batman who will appear later on this list, to Strider. The approach is simple but deadly: Big fastball, heavy slider, lots of whiffs. Jones did not blow away big-league hitters in his debut season, but all the elements are there. 'Will he have the durability to reach the No. 1 ceiling?' the executive asked. Imanaga exceeded expectations during his first year in the States. Some folks who took our survey wondered if he would be more than a No. 5. Imanaga set aside those concerns by giving up only five runs during his first eight starts. He throws strikes and his sinker misses bats. There is still some skepticism in the scouting community about whether those first two months were a mirage. 'This guy is a testament to why plus makeup matters,' one scout said. King fractured his elbow in 2022 and underwent season-ending surgery. He remained committed to being a starting pitcher. A solid cameo in 2023 for the Yankees made him the centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade. King proceeded to flourish as a starter in San Diego. Advertisement Like a lot of former Yankees prospects, he slings his stuff from a low, deceptive arm slot. There remain concerns about his health, especially as he shoulders the starter's workload for a second time. If he can stay upright, he'll benefit on the open market after this season. 'I was skeptical he could make it work, and now he looks like he's a year away from $100 million [or more],' one executive said. The frantic scramble to sign Sasaki stemmed more from his age and his upside than his current ability. It is important to remember that last year did not go particularly well for him with the Chiba Lotte Marines. His fastball velocity dropped. His walk rate spiked. He made only 18 starts. 'There's more red flags here than we're used to seeing from recent uber talents from the NPB,' one executive said. And yet … well, the stuff is the stuff is the stuff. Sasaki opened eyes and buckled knees with his splitter in his Cactus League debut. 'His secondary pitches are as good as anyone on this list,' another executive said. 'And when you pair it with 100 mph …' Sasaki will face the same questions that all Japanese pitchers face upon joining Major League Baseball. He must adjust to a new schedule, a new baseball and a new level of competition. 'He'll wow regularly, but he's far from the finished product and still has to show he can post,' one scout said. Because of his employer and his stature back home, there will be heightened scrutiny. He also has to prove he can stay healthy. It is a hefty load for one young man to shoulder. All of this explains why such a highly coveted prospect did crack the top 20 on this list. How friendly to hitters is Great American Ball Park? Very, Greene might say. He posted a 2.05 ERA on the road and a 3.38 ERA at his home yard last season. It was his best campaign yet. It takes a while for high school pitchers to develop in professional ball, even those selected No. 2 overall, as Greene was back in 2017. He's made steady progress upward on this list. Schwellenbach filled the Spencer void for Atlanta in the wake of Strider's Tommy John surgery. Schwellenbach was a shortstop who closed at the University of Nebraska, which led one scout to ponder 'how much arm talent we've lost to players being terrible evaluators.' Really makes you think. Anyway, Schwellenbach rocketed through Atlanta's minor-league system before acquitting himself quite well in 21 starts as a rookie. His command has improved as he has gotten older. His splitter and slider are strong options. One executive described him as an 'elite competitor with really good stuff.' Castillo took a step back last year. He put up his worst fielding-independent ERA since 2018 and his lowest strikeout rate since that same season. A hamstring injury shortened his campaign. 'His age and the mileage are starting to take a toll on his stuff over an entire season,' one scout said. Our respondents are curious to see if he can stabilize at this level, which is still pretty good. Valdez just does his thing. You like grounders? This is the guy for you. He puts the ball on the ground and puts the ball on the ground and puts the ball on the ground. Since he joined the Astros rotation in 2020, he's put up a 3.12 ERA and received Cy Young Award votes in four separate seasons. 'Can he maintain this into his mid-30s?' one scout asked. If history is any guide, some team besides the Astros will pay to find out that answer. Two scouts used the same phrase to describe Gallen: 'Boring good.' It sounds like an insult. It's really a compliment. Gallen isn't an ace; his stuff doesn't astound hitters or evaluators. His command degraded last season, too. But he's still quite talented and effective. Only six pitchers have been more valuable than Gallen since 2022, according to FanGraphs. He can also become a free agent after this season. You know what being 'boring good' can make you? Stupid rich. 'My favorite thing about Nola,' one scout said, 'is how an entire city is so aware of the third-time-through-the-order penalty specifically because of him. Doing a public service by educating the masses.' It's true: Opposing hitters punched up an .824 OPS off Nola after 75 pitches in 2024. He does his best work in the early going. He bounced back after a shaky 2023 campaign, which still did not deter the Phillies from lavishing him with a $172 million contract. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski 'has built a team that works in any era without being too cute about any of it,' one scout said. Nola is part of that. This man takes the baseball. He's made at least 32 starts in every full season dating to 2018. 'Metronome,' another scout called him. Some years are better than others. But his reliability enhances his value. Glasnow can generate elite fastball velocity. His curveball is wicked and so is his slider. He misses bats and produces grounders. He checks every box except for the one that matters most: Availability. 'Hard to depend on from a durability perspective,' one executive said. 'But the stuff is elite.' Advertisement This is not a new assessment. Folks in baseball have been saying this about Glasnow since he burst into prominence for Tampa Bay in 2019. The 2024 season only furthered this appraisal. After signing a $115 million extension with the Dodgers, Glasnow made his first All-Star team and set new career benchmarks for innings and starts (22). Even so, he did little to quell the main knock on him, because he got hurt again. An elbow injury kept him from contributing to the team's World Series run.'He's a premium arm (who throws) strikes with wipeout stuff,' one evaluator said, 'but the health will always be a major issue.' Will 2025 be different? 'He has No. 1 stuff,' another scout said, 'even if the production won't match because of (limited) innings.' One scout summed up the consensus view on Snell, the new $182 million man in Los Angeles: 'Hard to say a two-time Cy Young Award winner isn't a No. 1, but …' By now, dedicated baseball fans are familiar with the dings on Snell: He doesn't pitch deep into games. He doesn't attack hitters. He gets hurt fairly often. All the criticism is fair. The Dodgers, of course, are banking on these lines of rebuttal: Snell has avoided major arm problems in his career. He logged six innings or more in 10 of his 20 starts last season. And his stuff is still suffocating. Snell, one executive said, 'has matured a ton, and has a killer's mentality.' Two analysts, independent of one another, left a shrug emoji as commentary on deGrom. There are two poles of thought here. One scout pegged deGrom as an ace and insisted they 'will die on this hill until the stuff starts going in the wrong direction.' Another evaluator offered a solid retort: 'Actually pitching has to count.' He hasn't made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019, his last Cy Young campaign. But in those rare moments when deGrom is healthy and thriving? 'He's as good as anyone,' one executive said. Across the past three seasons, Webb has thrown 15 more innings than any other pitcher. He led the sport with 216 innings in 2023 and topped the National League again last season. In a shallow era, Webb goes deep. He turns pejoratives into compliments — a 'quality innings eater,' one scout called him. Another summed him up as a pitcher providing 'above-average performance with excellent durability.' Like many of his brethren, Kirby will start the season on the injured list. Shoulder inflammation is always worrisome. One thing is for sure: If he comes back healthy, he will be throwing strikes. He made 20 quality starts in 2024 while issuing 23 walks. 'Elite command with solid stuff,' one scout said. The pressure will be on Fried to replace Cole and excel during his first season in the Bronx. It's a tall task, especially when Fried has dealt with arm problems of his own. He does not accumulate as many strikeouts as the pitchers within the top 10, which is part of why our respondents continue to rate him as a classic No. 2 starter. If you watched Game 5 of the National League Division Series, you would understand why so much fanfare greeted Yamamoto's arrival in Major League Baseball. He subdued the Padres for five scoreless innings and exited to a standing ovation at Dodger Stadium. His next two outings pushed the team closer to a championship. 'I do really think he has special upside,' one scout said. Advertisement But if the Dodgers had fallen to San Diego in four games, folks across the South Bay and beyond might have been wondering why the team paid $325 million for a short guy who got hurt after learning to throw a slider. Yamamoto experienced a rocky regular season. He dealt with the same issues of acclimation that his new teammate Sasaki will face. He also damaged his shoulder, adding to worries about his size. Yamamoto, one evaluator said, has 'the stuff to be a No. 1, but not durable enough.' So now Yamamoto will enter year No. 2 of his 12-year contract. There will be far more attention devoted to Sasaki's debut and Ohtani's rehabilitation. The lack of a spotlight won't help Yamamoto stay healthy. But it could reduce the pressure Yamamoto admitted feeling at times last season. He ignored that burden during his star turn in October. He could do it again in 2025. 'If he can throw 165 innings,' a third scout said, 'he's a Cy Young candidate.' Added a fourth evaluator, 'I think this is the year where we get a better handle on how good he can be.' Gilbert has emerged as the best pitcher in the sport's best rotation, according to our panel, narrowly surpassing George Kirby. Gilbert's 6-foot-6 frame provides a bit more comfort about his ability to stay healthy. He has logged more than 185 innings in each of the past three seasons, while topping 200 for the first time last year. 'He's underrated because he doesn't post dominant ERAs,' one scout said. 'However the innings totals and ability to limit base runners is impressive.' As expected by our respondents, Cease bounced back with the Padres after a down year in Chicago in 2023. He got back to producing elite fastball velocity and finished fourth in National League Cy Young Award balloting. He profiles as a tweaked version of Snell — he's not as dominant as Snell, but he pitches more often. The story of Ragans offers both a reason for hope and a warning to any scouting director looking at a high school pitcher in the draft. The player might someday reach his ceiling. But there's a decent chance that player will reach it for some other team. The Texas Rangers, of course, should harbor little regret about their handling of Ragans, who they drafted in the first round in 2016. He missed multiple seasons as he underwent two separate Tommy John procedures. With the team pushing for a postseason berth in 2023, the front office dealt him to Kansas City for Aroldis Chapman, who helped Texas win its first World Series. Advertisement With the Royals, though, Ragans has blossomed into a budding ace. His 12-start performance in 2023 set the stage for a breakout last year. He ranked fourth among all pitchers in FanGraphs' version of WAR. He overpowered hitters with his 95 mph fastball and befuddled them with his changeup. One executive paid him a high compliment, describing Ragans as a 'workhorse, with upside for more.' We have reached the best of the best. Crochet will be a fascinating test case in 2025 as he pitches in higher-leverage situations in Boston. The White Sox fast-tracked him to the majors as a reliever in 2020 and kept him in the bullpen until he blew out in April 2022. He rehabbed and returned as a starter for 2024, at which point he proceeded to overwhelm opposing lineups for the first few months. He showed why, as one executive put it, he 'may be the best per-inning starter in baseball.' Through July, he had posted a 2.43 FIP with 160 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings. But July was a weird one. Pitching for perhaps the worst team in baseball history, Crochet dampened his trade market by insisting he would not pitch for a contender in the postseason without the promise of a contract extension. It was a reasonable request for a player who sacrificed his ulnar collateral ligament while pitching out of the bullpen as a rookie. But it also tanked any chance of him escaping Chicago in 2024. The White Sox limited his innings in the final months of the season. Crochet posted a 4.83 ERA after the deadline. The late-season skid did not stop the Red Sox from bundling together several quality prospects to acquire him. Crochet still does not have the security of a long-term contract and there are still some questions about his ability to handle the increase in innings. But most members of our panel see him as a stud. 'He only needs a bit more seasoning to reach the elite level,' one evaluator said. Added a second scout, 'I guess you can still say 'prove it,' but hard to not say he's not a top 5 starter.' It looks more and more like the 2021 season, in which Burnes struck out 12.6 batters per nine innings with a 1.63 FIP and won the National League Cy Young Award, was an outlier. Burnes has not matched that output during the past few seasons. His fastball velocity is in decline. He struck out fewer than a batter per inning last year. The counter, of course is: So what? Advertisement During these past three seasons, Burnes ranked third in innings and seventh in ERA. Part of the explanation for his more pedestrian strikeout rate is more usage of his cutter, which he adopted in search of efficiency. Burnes cranked it up a notch for Baltimore in September, with a 1.20 ERA in five starts. 'He's still a top-5 pitcher in baseball, but it's becoming more about durability than dominance,' one executive said. The relative warts on his resume did not dissuade Arizona from offering him $210 million. 'I mean, he's not perfect,' one scout said. 'But maybe this is what aces are now?' By winning the National League Cy Young Award last fall, Sale checked off the last box missing on his Hall of Fame resume. He turned back the clock for most of the summer, displaying for Braves fans the monster who terrorized the American League for most of the 2010s. 'When he's dialed in, he's as tough an at-bat as can be,' one executive said. It was Sale's first full season since 2019 — even if it wasn't exactly a full season. He did not pitch during the final two weeks of the regular season, including getting scratched due to back issues for the finale as the Braves fought for postseason seeding. He did not pitch in the team's two-game Wild Card series. It was an unfortunate ending to an otherwise rousing comeback. Sale is, as one scout put it, 'a bit of a wild card from year to year.' When he's right, he's outstanding. But his body has been unreliable for so long. He achieved his status on this list as more of a valedictory note than anything else. 'He's a Hall of Famer who just won the Cy Young,' another executive said, 'so I don't have much of a choice but to call him an ace.' 'Hard to find someone better over the last five years or so,' one scout said. It's true. Since Wheeler joined the Phillies heading into 2020, no pitcher has been more valuable, according to FanGraphs. In that time frame, he ranks second in innings, sixth in ERA, third in FIP and sixth in strikeouts. He crushes junk food and opposing lineups with equal vigor. He brings it in October, too. Wheeler has posted a 2.18 ERA in his 12 postseason outings with Philadelphia. Advertisement 'The definition of a No. 1,' another evaluator said. 'Workhorse. Winner.' Added a third, 'I hope he does it forever.' In his big-league debut, Skenes looked like the pitcher who was promised. 'Hard to be even better than the hype,' one scout said. 'But I think he was.' The fastball touched 102 mph. The 'splinker' looked obscene. But it wasn't just the stuff. It was the results. He pitched into the sixth inning in 17 of his 23 outings. He gave up only two runs in his final five starts. He offered a beacon of hope to an otherwise moribund franchise. Because Skenes is a pitcher, in an age of heightened anxiety about injury risk, there was a sense of wonder and worry from our panel. How should the Pirates handle him? Can he stay healthy? In this era, it is hard to enjoy a shooting star. We know how fleeting they can be. 'There may be no single player whose own arm health is more important to the health of the sport,' one executive said. Let's hear it from the chorus. 'Best there is right now,' one scout said. 'Might be the best in the sport right now,' an executive said. 'You have access to his Baseball Savant, right?' another evaluator said. Indeed, we do. The data hub presents a crimson wave of positive indicators for Skubal. He throws strikes and misses bats. He avoids barrels and generates grounders. His offspeed arsenal is deep. And his heater? Skubal is, as another evaluator put it, 'a monster not afraid to challenge you with a 'f— you' fastball.' Skubal put it all together in 2024. He won the Triple Crown en route to his first Cy Young Award. If he can stay healthy, he might add a few more to his mantle before his time is up. Because right now, no one does it better. 'An ace in any era,' an evaluator said. The Rankings and Tiers series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Hunter Martin, Jason Miller, Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)
New York Times
19-03-2025
- Health
- New York Times
The 2025 Aces Project: MLB insiders rank starting pitchers, from ‘just a guy' to No. 1
Editor's Note: This article is part of our Rankings & Tiers series, an evaluation across sport about the key players, front offices, teams, franchises and much more. By Andy McCullough, Will Sammon and Sahadev Sharma The email from the New York Yankees arrived just past 6 p.m. a little more than a week before the first game of the 2025 MLB season. The subject line was short but sinister, a harbinger of bad tidings for both the team and the sport writ large at the start of the year. Advertisement Update on RHP Gerrit Cole The news contained in the message was not a surprise. Cole — the 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner, once the recipient of the most lucrative pitching contract in baseball history, a paragon of good health and good habits — would require Tommy John surgery to repair his right elbow. He would not pitch in 2025. His return date was uncertain. His quest to help the Yankees capture a title would be delayed. His pursuit of the Hall of Fame would be paused. And once more, as has happened so often in recent years, the baseball season would begin with a reminder about the fragility of its most precious assets. Last year started with serious injuries to stars such as Shane Bieber and Spencer Strider. The prominence of the ailments prompted greater interest in a study commissioned by MLB to determine the root cause of rising injury rates. The study determined that increases in velocity, added emphasis on spin and training to throw with maximum effort were contributing to all the surgeries. In other words: the things that make pitchers great also make pitchers break. This is not an entirely new phenomenon. The task of pitching has always been unhealthy and unnatural, a race against the clock. Maybe the clock just ticks faster now. Maybe the hourglass contains less sand. All of this makes it harder to answer one of baseball's oldest questions: Who is an ace? The criteria used to be elevated but simple. An ace was dependable. An ace made life miserable for hitters. An ace avoided the injured list. An ace was the sort of pitcher whose name on the marquee in October inspired confidence in teammates and fans alike. For the past six years, The Athletic has been surveying experts around the game to determine who are the aces. Once again we convened a panel of 20, with expertise in scouting, player development and analytics. The executives, scouts and analysts we consulted were granted anonymity in order to offer opinions. Each member of the panel filled out a survey featuring 80 pitchers. The list included the top 50 in FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement in 2024, plus 30 others we thought merited consideration. To make things easier on our panel, we excluded pitchers who did not appear in 2024, which is why you won't see Shohei Ohtani, Strider or Eury Pérez on this list. (Because we do love to mystify our respondents, we continue to include Jacob deGrom.) Advertisement For each player, the panelist provided a scouting grade, from a No. 1 pitcher to a No. 5. This is the present-day grade on these pitchers: Who they are right now. If a respondent wanted to denote that the pitcher could one day become a No. 1, the grade included an asterisk, classifying status as an 'applicant.' The grading system is also straightforward. A No. 1 grade nets five points, a No. 2 grade nets four, No. 3 nets three, No. 4 nets two and No. 5 nets one. An asterisk adds a half point to the score. We culled the list down to a top 50, split into five tiers: Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle: The unanimous No. 1s. Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces: The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October. Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Doorstep Knockers: The pitchers who might one day call themselves aces. Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s: Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball. Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — No. 4s and No. 5s: Everyone else. The players talented enough to reach and stick in the major leagues, but still a level below the elite. When we sent out these surveys in January and February, Cole was included. He received 14 No. 1 votes. Only three pitchers scored higher than him. But because he will not participate in the 2025 season, he won't be featured here. With that in mind, let's try to answer the question that changes each spring: Who are baseball's aces? The former teammates took a tumble last season. Scherzer was bedeviled by injuries. Verlander looked suddenly hittable. (Fellow future Cooperstown inductee Clayton Kershaw logged only 30 innings in 2024 and is currently recovering from multiple surgeries.) Yet both players merited sizable one-year contracts for 2025. Verlander will earn $15 million pitching in the Bay Area, in a ballpark that one evaluator suggested could aid a revival. The Blue Jays placed a $15.5 million wager on Scherzer remaining successful. 'Who knows?' one scout said. 'Could be a No. 1. Could be done.' If you're wondering why the Red Sox offered $21 million to a pitcher with a 5.38 ERA, look no further than the final inning of the 2024 season. Buehler emerged from the bullpen to slam the door on the Yankees and deliver a championship to Los Angeles. 'He gave you some reminders in October about how good he can be,' one scout said. Advertisement Few would question Buehler's gumption. But there are lingering concerns about his ability to handle the rigors of a big-league season, especially after two elbow reconstructions. Buehler, one evaluator explained, 'can be electric or can be lost.' He was one of the best pitchers in the sport from 2018 to 2021. 'Might not be a ton of staying power, but betting on one more good year out of him,' one scout said. In transitioning back to starting after a couple years in relief, López exceeded expectations in 2024, even if he did not log enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Unfortunately for him, our pool of respondents remains skeptical about his ability to repeat. 'He must be able to prove he can do it again, and for a full season,' one scout said. After Cole first got hurt last spring, Gil stabilized the Yankees' pitching staff and eventually won American League Rookie of the Year. But his results worsened as the season went along and scouts harbor concerns about his struggles throwing strikes. An even more ominous note was struck earlier this month, when Gil experienced a strained lat muscle. He will miss the first couple months of the season. Another talented youngster with some injury concerns. Bello will start the season on the injured list as he recovers from a sore shoulder. He got knocked around by left-handed hitters and does not really possess a strikeout pitch, our respondents noted. His second season in the Bronx went better than his first. Rodón made 32 starts for the first time in his career. At times, he looked like the pitcher who enticed the Yankees into a $162 million pact. But he is still far more homer-prone than he was during his peak in 2021 and 2022. With Cole out, the Yankees need him more than ever. 'In a career of ups and downs, does he have one more big ride up?' one scout wondered. Eflin is the most reliable starter on an Orioles team with championship aspirations. When he is healthy, one scout explained, he is 'the definition of a steady, middle-of-the-rotation guy.' Another scout described him as a 'kitchen-sink guy,' a pitcher lacking bat-missing pitches who could collapse if his command falters. Kikuchi parlayed a strong, 10-start stint with Houston after the trade deadline into a three-year, $63.7 million deal with the Angels. The Astros encouraged him to swap out sliders for curveballs, which led to 76 strikeouts in 60 innings. 'I'm buying the post-deadline Astros production,' one executive said. 'Kikuchi is nastier than he gets credit for.' Flaherty makes his triumphant return to this list. He ranked seventh in the inaugural edition and sixth in 2021. Back then, our respondents debated Flaherty versus Buehler as the best young pitcher in the sport. The next few years were problematic for both. Flaherty hurt his shoulder. He stopped missing bats. He flopped after the Cardinals traded him to Baltimore in 2023. Advertisement The 2024 season represented a comeback. With improved deception and sharpened command, Flaherty excelled in the opening months of his one-year contract with Detroit. The Dodgers acquired him to aid their patchwork rotation. Flaherty helped his childhood team win the World Series and joined in the city-wide jubilee. Yet a lucrative multiyear deal did not await him back on the market this winter. There were worries about his flagging velocity during the postseason. 'Absolutely no one is buying what this dude did in '24 as repeatable,' one scout said. The Tigers were happy to reunite with him on a two-year, $35 million contract. His command can be erratic and he gives up plenty of hits, but Gore took steps forward in 2024. Several scouts suggested he can grow into a reliable No. 3 starter, which is nothing to sneeze at. After Senga won the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2023, his second act was a bust. He appeared in just one regular-season game. He hurt his shoulder in the spring, strained his calf upon his summertime return and pitched only a handful of innings during the OMG Mets' run to the National League Championship Series. One scout suggested the Mets should shift to a six-man rotation to maximize Senga's ability. 'Let him pitch once a week,' the scout said. 'You'll get more out of him. He's electric when he's right.' With Framber Valdez poised to reach free agency, Brown could become the headliner of Houston's rotation after this season. Time is still on his side, although some of our respondents worried about his walk rate. 'He has stuff and deception, but we may be in a roller-coaster season each year until the command improves,' one scout said. With his new $75 million deal, Eovaldi is set to earn more than $200 million for his career. That's a hefty sum for a guy who has never thrown 200 innings in a season, never won 15 games and never finished in the top three in Cy Young voting. Why does Eovaldi keep getting paid? He delivers in October. He burnished his postseason legacy with a 2.95 ERA in six starts during Texas' 2023 World Series run. Eovaldi, one scout said, 'is a No. 1 in the playoffs.' Added another, Eovaldi's 'statistics are that of a No. 3, but there's few (other) guys you'd want in a big game because his stuff is still elite.' Peralta is a consistent package. A lot of strikeouts. A lot of walks. Too many dingers. He maintained his fastball velocity in 2024, which had been a concern earlier in his career. Miller is the first of many Mariners to make this list. Only Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal threw a more effective fastball last season than Miller's 95 mph heater, according to Sports Info Solutions. 'He throws 6 pitches with varying success, and yet it's the fastball that makes him successful,' one scout said. An uptick in home runs contributed to Gray's inflated ERA in 2024. He's reached the age where negative trends could signal catastrophe. But Gray has pulled himself back from the brink several times already in his career. Maybe he'll cut down on the dingers and get back to the form he displayed during his 2022-23 run with Minnesota. For more than a decade, every left-handed pitcher has looked into a mirror and thought, 'Maybe I should just rip off Chris Sale.' Last year Manaea became the first to actually succeed. After he started aping Sale's sidewinder delivery, Manaea posted a 3.09 ERA in his final 12 starts, which was enough to convince the Mets to bring him back on a three-year, $75 million deal. Advertisement Before his impersonation act took hold, Manaea was a serviceable if limited pitcher. One executive noted that Manaea benefited from a .215 batting average on balls in play in the second half, the sort of number that is hard to sustain. He'll also start the season on the injured list due to an oblique problem. 'Adjustments from last year are real,' one scout said. 'Health is a question.' His fastball misses bats. He throws strikes. He pitches in the American League Central. If Ryan can put together a healthy full season, he could rise on this list. Sánchez generated a lot of buzz from his Grapefruit League outings. His improved fastball velocity garnered notice, especially coming off such a successful season in 2024. One executive described him as 'the most underrated pitcher in baseball.' The executive went on to say that 'It's the Logan Webb mold of no walks and all grounders, but in the mid 90s from the left side.' Sánchez could zoom closer to the top of this list if he lives up to the hype. The trending arrows on Gausman are pointing downward as he enters the backstretch of his five-year, $110 million contract. His strikeout rate tumbled from 31.1 percent in 2023 to 21.4 percent in 2024. Hitters teed off on his sinker, which he incorporated into his mix to limit his reliance on four-seam fastballs and splitters. Even so — still a pretty good deal for the Blue Jays. Yet another young pitcher with arm problems. Rodriguez was shut down earlier this month after experiencing discomfort in his elbow. The Orioles have expressed optimism that Rodriguez will not require Tommy John surgery. The note remains ominous. The consistent struggles to stay on the field have limited his rise, several of our respondents noted. The underlying metrics suggest López performed in 2024 at about the same rate as he did in 2023, when he landed on a few American League Cy Young Award ballots. He has made 32 starts in each of the past three years. 'I'm still thinking he's got some premium seasons in him, even if 2024 wasn't amazing,' one scout said. Lugo is baseball's Patron Saint of Conversion. After five years as a low-leverage reliever for the Mets, he bet on his ability to shift back into starting in 2023. A solid season in San Diego set him up for a tremendous campaign with the Royals last season. Lugo finished second in American League Cy Young Award voting — not bad for a guy who used to pitch the sixth inning. He excelled by matching his nine-pitch arsenal to the weaknesses of hitters. Even those respondents who doubted Lugo's ability to repeat in 2025 commended him for the performance. 'He's fun to watch because he can really pitch and manipulate the baseball,' one scout said. In case you were wondering: Yes, all five members of Seattle's starting rotation made the cut. In an era when pitchers are using more offspeed pitches, Woo relies on his fastball. He rotates between four-seamers and sinkers. He generates more soft contact than whiffs. It's an interesting profile, if he can stay healthy. An elbow injury kept him on the shelf for more than a month in 2024. Several of our respondents noted that if Bibee played in a bigger market, he'd get more attention. Well, that's why this exercise exists. Part of the reason Bibee can't quite crack the realm of would-be aces is he 'doesn't quite have the s— to get there,' as one scout put it. So be it. He's still pretty good. His teammate Gavin Williams could join him on this list next year. Darvish spent a portion of 2024 away from the Padres, tending to a personal matter. When he returned, he displayed the same beguiling mixture of pitches and speeds that has made him so effective for more than a decade. The Dodgers took about two good swings against him in two postseason starts. Unfortunately for Darvish and San Diego, both of those swings resulted in homers in the decisive Game 5. Steele missed time last September with elbow tendonitis, but made it back for two starts before the season ended. He gets better results than some of our respondents would expect based on the quality of his arsenal. One executive compared Jones, the Robin to a certain Batman who will appear later on this list, to Strider. The approach is simple but deadly: Big fastball, heavy slider, lots of whiffs. Jones did not blow away big-league hitters in his debut season, but all the elements are there. 'Will he have the durability to reach the No. 1 ceiling?' the executive asked. Imanaga exceeded expectations during his first year in the States. Some folks who took our survey wondered if he would be more than a No. 5. Imanaga set aside those concerns by giving up only five runs during his first eight starts. He throws strikes and his sinker misses bats. There is still some skepticism in the scouting community about whether those first two months were a mirage. 'This guy is a testament to why plus makeup matters,' one scout said. King fractured his elbow in 2022 and underwent season-ending surgery. He remained committed to being a starting pitcher. A solid cameo in 2023 for the Yankees made him the centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade. King proceeded to flourish as a starter in San Diego. Advertisement Like a lot of former Yankees prospects, he slings his stuff from a low, deceptive arm slot. There remain concerns about his health, especially as he shoulders the starter's workload for a second time. If he can stay upright, he'll benefit on the open market after this season. 'I was skeptical he could make it work, and now he looks like he's a year away from $100 million [or more],' one executive said. The frantic scramble to sign Sasaki stemmed more from his age and his upside than his current ability. It is important to remember that last year did not go particularly well for him with the Chiba Lotte Marines. His fastball velocity dropped. His walk rate spiked. He made only 18 starts. 'There's more red flags here than we're used to seeing from recent uber talents from the NPB,' one executive said. And yet … well, the stuff is the stuff is the stuff. Sasaki opened eyes and buckled knees with his splitter in his Cactus League debut. 'His secondary pitches are as good as anyone on this list,' another executive said. 'And when you pair it with 100 mph …' Sasaki will face the same questions that all Japanese pitchers face upon joining Major League Baseball. He must adjust to a new schedule, a new baseball and a new level of competition. 'He'll wow regularly, but he's far from the finished product and still has to show he can post,' one scout said. Because of his employer and his stature back home, there will be heightened scrutiny. He also has to prove he can stay healthy. It is a hefty load for one young man to shoulder. All of this explains why such a highly coveted prospect did crack the top 20 on this list. How friendly to hitters is Great American Ball Park? Very, Greene might say. He posted a 2.05 ERA on the road and a 3.38 ERA at his home yard last season. It was his best campaign yet. It takes a while for high school pitchers to develop in professional ball, even those selected No. 2 overall, as Greene was back in 2017. He's made steady progress upward on this list. Schwellenbach filled the Spencer void for Atlanta in the wake of Strider's Tommy John surgery. Schwellenbach was a shortstop who closed at the University of Nebraska, which led one scout to ponder 'how much arm talent we've lost to players being terrible evaluators.' Really makes you think. Anyway, Schwellenbach rocketed through Atlanta's minor-league system before acquitting himself quite well in 21 starts as a rookie. His command has improved as he has gotten older. His splitter and slider are strong options. One executive described him as an 'elite competitor with really good stuff.' Castillo took a step back last year. He put up his worst fielding-independent ERA since 2018 and his lowest strikeout rate since that same season. A hamstring injury shortened his campaign. 'His age and the mileage are starting to take a toll on his stuff over an entire season,' one scout said. Our respondents are curious to see if he can stabilize at this level, which is still pretty good. Valdez just does his thing. You like grounders? This is the guy for you. He puts the ball on the ground and puts the ball on the ground and puts the ball on the ground. Since he joined the Astros rotation in 2020, he's put up a 3.12 ERA and received Cy Young Award votes in four separate seasons. 'Can he maintain this into his mid-30s?' one scout asked. If history is any guide, some team besides the Astros will pay to find out that answer. Two scouts used the same phrase to describe Gallen: 'Boring good.' It sounds like an insult. It's really a compliment. Gallen isn't an ace; his stuff doesn't astound hitters or evaluators. His command degraded last season, too. But he's still quite talented and effective. Only six pitchers have been more valuable than Gallen since 2022, according to FanGraphs. He can also become a free agent after this season. You know what being 'boring good' can make you? Stupid rich. 'My favorite thing about Nola,' one scout said, 'is how an entire city is so aware of the third-time-through-the-order penalty specifically because of him. Doing a public service by educating the masses.' It's true: Opposing hitters punched up an .824 OPS off Nola after 75 pitches in 2024. He does his best work in the early going. He bounced back after a shaky 2023 campaign, which still did not deter the Phillies from lavishing him with a $172 million contract. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski 'has built a team that works in any era without being too cute about any of it,' one scout said. Nola is part of that. This man takes the baseball. He's made at least 32 starts in every full season dating to 2018. 'Metronome,' another scout called him. Some years are better than others. But his reliability enhances his value. Glasnow can generate elite fastball velocity. His curveball is wicked and so is his slider. He misses bats and produces grounders. He checks every box except for the one that matters most: Availability. 'Hard to depend on from a durability perspective,' one executive said. 'But the stuff is elite.' Advertisement This is not a new assessment. Folks in baseball have been saying this about Glasnow since he burst into prominence for Tampa Bay in 2019. The 2024 season only furthered this appraisal. After signing a $115 million extension with the Dodgers, Glasnow made his first All-Star team and set new career benchmarks for innings and starts (22). Even so, he did little to quell the main knock on him, because he got hurt again. An elbow injury kept him from contributing to the team's World Series run.'He's a premium arm (who throws) strikes with wipeout stuff,' one evaluator said, 'but the health will always be a major issue.' Will 2025 be different? 'He has No. 1 stuff,' another scout said, 'even if the production won't match because of (limited) innings.' One scout summed up the consensus view on Snell, the new $182 million man in Los Angeles: 'Hard to say a two-time Cy Young Award winner isn't a No. 1, but …' By now, dedicated baseball fans are familiar with the dings on Snell: He doesn't pitch deep into games. He doesn't attack hitters. He gets hurt fairly often. All the criticism is fair. The Dodgers, of course, are banking on these lines of rebuttal: Snell has avoided major arm problems in his career. He logged six innings or more in 10 of his 20 starts last season. And his stuff is still suffocating. Snell, one executive said, 'has matured a ton, and has a killer's mentality.' Two analysts, independent of one another, left a shrug emoji as commentary on deGrom. There are two poles of thought here. One scout pegged deGrom as an ace and insisted they 'will die on this hill until the stuff starts going in the wrong direction.' Another evaluator offered a solid retort: 'Actually pitching has to count.' He hasn't made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019, his last Cy Young campaign. But in those rare moments when deGrom is healthy and thriving? 'He's as good as anyone,' one executive said. Across the past three seasons, Webb has thrown 15 more innings than any other pitcher. He led the sport with 216 innings in 2023 and topped the National League again last season. In a shallow era, Webb goes deep. He turns pejoratives into compliments — a 'quality innings eater,' one scout called him. Another summed him up as a pitcher providing 'above-average performance with excellent durability.' Like many of his brethren, Kirby will start the season on the injured list. Shoulder inflammation is always worrisome. One thing is for sure: If he comes back healthy, he will be throwing strikes. He made 20 quality starts in 2024 while issuing 23 walks. 'Elite command with solid stuff,' one scout said. The pressure will be on Fried to replace Cole and excel during his first season in the Bronx. It's a tall task, especially when Fried has dealt with arm problems of his own. He does not accumulate as many strikeouts as the pitchers within the top 10, which is part of why our respondents continue to rate him as a classic No. 2 starter. If you watched Game 5 of the National League Division Series, you would understand why so much fanfare greeted Yamamoto's arrival in Major League Baseball. He subdued the Padres for five scoreless innings and exited to a standing ovation at Dodger Stadium. His next two outings pushed the team closer to a championship. 'I do really think he has special upside,' one scout said. Advertisement But if the Dodgers had fallen to San Diego in four games, folks across the South Bay and beyond might have been wondering why the team paid $325 million for a short guy who got hurt after learning to throw a slider. Yamamoto experienced a rocky regular season. He dealt with the same issues of acclimation that his new teammate Sasaki will face. He also damaged his shoulder, adding to worries about his size. Yamamoto, one evaluator said, has 'the stuff to be a No. 1, but not durable enough.' So now Yamamoto will enter year No. 2 of his 12-year contract. There will be far more attention devoted to Sasaki's debut and Ohtani's rehabilitation. The lack of a spotlight won't help Yamamoto stay healthy. But it could reduce the pressure Yamamoto admitted feeling at times last season. He ignored that burden during his star turn in October. He could do it again in 2025. 'If he can throw 165 innings,' a third scout said, 'he's a Cy Young candidate.' Added a fourth evaluator, 'I think this is the year where we get a better handle on how good he can be.' Gilbert has emerged as the best pitcher in the sport's best rotation, according to our panel, narrowly surpassing George Kirby. Gilbert's 6-foot-6 frame provides a bit more comfort about his ability to stay healthy. He has logged more than 185 innings in each of the past three seasons, while topping 200 for the first time last year. 'He's underrated because he doesn't post dominant ERAs,' one scout said. 'However the innings totals and ability to limit base runners is impressive.' As expected by our respondents, Cease bounced back with the Padres after a down year in Chicago in 2023. He got back to producing elite fastball velocity and finished fourth in National League Cy Young Award balloting. He profiles as a tweaked version of Snell — he's not as dominant as Snell, but he pitches more often. The story of Ragans offers both a reason for hope and a warning to any scouting director looking at a high school pitcher in the draft. The player might someday reach his ceiling. But there's a decent chance that player will reach it for some other team. The Texas Rangers, of course, should harbor little regret about their handling of Ragans, who they drafted in the first round in 2016. He missed multiple seasons as he underwent two separate Tommy John procedures. With the team pushing for a postseason berth in 2023, the front office dealt him to Kansas City for Aroldis Chapman, who helped Texas win its first World Series. Advertisement With the Royals, though, Ragans has blossomed into a budding ace. His 12-start performance in 2023 set the stage for a breakout last year. He ranked fourth among all pitchers in FanGraphs' version of WAR. He overpowered hitters with his 95 mph fastball and befuddled them with his changeup. One executive paid him a high compliment, describing Ragans as a 'workhorse, with upside for more.' We have reached the best of the best. Crochet will be a fascinating test case in 2025 as he pitches in higher-leverage situations in Boston. The White Sox fast-tracked him to the majors as a reliever in 2020 and kept him in the bullpen until he blew out in April 2022. He rehabbed and returned as a starter for 2024, at which point he proceeded to overwhelm opposing lineups for the first few months. He showed why, as one executive put it, he 'may be the best per-inning starter in baseball.' Through July, he had posted a 2.43 FIP with 160 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings. But July was a weird one. Pitching for perhaps the worst team in baseball history, Crochet dampened his trade market by insisting he would not pitch for a contender in the postseason without the promise of a contract extension. It was a reasonable request for a player who sacrificed his ulnar collateral ligament while pitching out of the bullpen as a rookie. But it also tanked any chance of him escaping Chicago in 2024. The White Sox limited his innings in the final months of the season. Crochet posted a 4.83 ERA after the deadline. The late-season skid did not stop the Red Sox from bundling together several quality prospects to acquire him. Crochet still does not have the security of a long-term contract and there are still some questions about his ability to handle the increase in innings. But most members of our panel see him as a stud. 'He only needs a bit more seasoning to reach the elite level,' one evaluator said. Added a second scout, 'I guess you can still say 'prove it,' but hard to not say he's not a top 5 starter.' It looks more and more like the 2021 season, in which Burnes struck out 12.6 batters per nine innings with a 1.63 FIP and won the National League Cy Young Award, was an outlier. Burnes has not matched that output during the past few seasons. His fastball velocity is in decline. He struck out fewer than a batter per inning last year. The counter, of course is: So what? Advertisement During these past three seasons, Burnes ranked third in innings and seventh in ERA. Part of the explanation for his more pedestrian strikeout rate is more usage of his cutter, which he adopted in search of efficiency. Burnes cranked it up a notch for Baltimore in September, with a 1.20 ERA in five starts. 'He's still a top-5 pitcher in baseball, but it's becoming more about durability than dominance,' one executive said. The relative warts on his resume did not dissuade Arizona from offering him $210 million. 'I mean, he's not perfect,' one scout said. 'But maybe this is what aces are now?' By winning the National League Cy Young Award last fall, Sale checked off the last box missing on his Hall of Fame resume. He turned back the clock for most of the summer, displaying for Braves fans the monster who terrorized the American League for most of the 2010s. 'When he's dialed in, he's as tough an at-bat as can be,' one executive said. It was Sale's first full season since 2019 — even if it wasn't exactly a full season. He did not pitch during the final two weeks of the regular season, including getting scratched due to back issues for the finale as the Braves fought for postseason seeding. He did not pitch in the team's two-game Wild Card series. It was an unfortunate ending to an otherwise rousing comeback. Sale is, as one scout put it, 'a bit of a wild card from year to year.' When he's right, he's outstanding. But his body has been unreliable for so long. He achieved his status on this list as more of a valedictory note than anything else. 'He's a Hall of Famer who just won the Cy Young,' another executive said, 'so I don't have much of a choice but to call him an ace.' 'Hard to find someone better over the last five years or so,' one scout said. It's true. Since Wheeler joined the Phillies heading into 2020, no pitcher has been more valuable, according to FanGraphs. In that time frame, he ranks second in innings, sixth in ERA, third in FIP and sixth in strikeouts. He crushes junk food and opposing lineups with equal vigor. He brings it in October, too. Wheeler has posted a 2.18 ERA in his 12 postseason outings with Philadelphia. Advertisement 'The definition of a No. 1,' another evaluator said. 'Workhorse. Winner.' Added a third, 'I hope he does it forever.' In his big-league debut, Skenes looked like the pitcher who was promised. 'Hard to be even better than the hype,' one scout said. 'But I think he was.' The fastball touched 102 mph. The 'splinker' looked obscene. But it wasn't just the stuff. It was the results. He pitched into the sixth inning in 17 of his 23 outings. He gave up only two runs in his final five starts. He offered a beacon of hope to an otherwise moribund franchise. Because Skenes is a pitcher, in an age of heightened anxiety about injury risk, there was a sense of wonder and worry from our panel. How should the Pirates handle him? Can he stay healthy? In this era, it is hard to enjoy a shooting star. We know how fleeting they can be. 'There may be no single player whose own arm health is more important to the health of the sport,' one executive said. Let's hear it from the chorus. 'Best there is right now,' one scout said. 'Might be the best in the sport right now,' an executive said. 'You have access to his Baseball Savant, right?' another evaluator said. Indeed, we do. The data hub presents a crimson wave of positive indicators for Skubal. He throws strikes and misses bats. He avoids barrels and generates grounders. His offspeed arsenal is deep. And his heater? Skubal is, as another evaluator put it, 'a monster not afraid to challenge you with a 'f— you' fastball.' Skubal put it all together in 2024. He won the Triple Crown en route to his first Cy Young Award. If he can stay healthy, he might add a few more to his mantle before his time is up. Because right now, no one does it better. 'An ace in any era,' an evaluator said. The Rankings and Tiers series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Hunter Martin, Jason Miller, Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)
