14 hours ago
In a time of conflict and climate change, the UN badly needs a reset
Written by Faraz Rupani
Conflict levels are at an all-time high since the end of World War II — which had led to an estimated 70-85 million deaths, primarily civilians — with 56 conflicts and 92 countries engaged beyond their borders. In 2024 alone, over 233,000 people were killed in conflicts, and more than 120 million people were displaced due to persecution, conflict, violence, and human rights violations. The economic impact of violence was $19.3 trillion in 2023, equivalent to 13.5 per cent of the global GDP, straining public finances, deterring foreign investments in conflict-affected regions, and leading to inflationary pressure due to supply chain disruptions.
Conflicts are not only destabilising economies, but they are also quietly accelerating another crisis: Climate change. Global carbon dioxide emissions are projected to have reached 41.6 gigatonnes in 2024 compared to 40.6 gigatonnes in 2023, and the rise is expected to continue in the coming years as well. Estimates reveal that the total global carbon footprint from the military stands at approximately 5.5 per cent, making it the fourth-largest emitter if the military were considered a separate country. The military emission figures do not account for emissions from warfighting, such as damage to ecosystems, reconstruction, infrastructure damage, fires, and other damages caused by conflicts.
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, total carbon dioxide emissions have reached 230 million tonnes, equal to the combined emissions of Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Emissions from landscape fires due to the conflict reached 49 million tonnes. Researchers have assessed that more than 150,000 hectares of deciduous and coniferous forests have been burnt due to war, dampening the ability of forests to act as carbon sinks.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has also recorded significant emissions. Only limited data available for the first 120 days of direct war activities have led to 420,265–652,552 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) emissions, exceeding the annual emissions of 26 individual countries.
The global uncertainty due to conflicts is constraining progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). About 1.1 billion people across 112 countries in the world live in poverty, of which 218 million live in conflict-affected countries. In Yemen, after eight years of conflict, only 54 per cent of health facilities are fully functioning. In Sudan, 15 million people were unable to access water, sanitation and hygiene facilities in 2023. The conflict in northeastern Nigeria caused a cumulative loss of $91.2–$112.8 billion from 2008 to 2021, impacting its economy.
The effectiveness of the UN, therefore, in preventing crises is under intense scrutiny. The organisation was formed in 1945 after World War II; the huge loss of life, devastating economic and social consequences forced nations to think of a mechanism for lasting peace. Can it still uphold its four pillars — peace and security, human rights, rule of law and development — in an era where global crises are at an all-time high, or has it become an outdated institution struggling to adapt to modern global realities?
Despite what critics say, the UN has had significant achievements. It played a crucial role in facilitating the Paris Agreement 2015, which remains a crucial framework for addressing climate change. It established the World Food Programme, which runs the most significant food assistance and life-saving relief in emergencies around the globe. The UN and its affiliate organisations have supported conflict-affected developing nations, helping them rebuild governance and infrastructure. For example, in post-war Liberia, the UNDP supported the economy by investing in entrepreneurship programmes and infrastructure development, aiding the country in transitioning towards stability.
UN peacekeeping missions have helped countries develop policies and strengthen institutional capacity and leadership skills. They have also passed resolutions highlighting the environmental impact of peace operations, such as good stewardship of resources and expanding the usage of renewable energy. An empirical study presented a positive impact of UN peace missions on the environmental quality in host nations due to a multi-dimensional approach, and ignoring environmental needs in conflict regions could complicate the peace-building mission.
A study in South Sudan has shown that peacekeeping military establishments improve both the actual and perceived sense of security, leading to economic revitalisation and improved household well-being. The UNDP's microfinance programmes also help local economies to restart trade activities.
Still, there is a need for systemic reform.
The UN relies on both financial and political commitment from its member states. However, its interventions have often reflected the interests of the most powerful nations rather than neutral enforcement of international law, as seen in the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, where countries exercised the power of veto, blocking resolutions passed by the assembly.
While the UN advocates multilateralism and holds the right to sanction countries violating international agreements, major powers have used their vetoes to prevent such sanctions.
The UN needs to start limiting the power of veto, and if any decision is vetoed, it should be reviewed by a nonpartisan panel acting as a transparent body that discloses the motivation and implications, forcing countries to act responsibly. Nations must adhere to international agreements supporting multilateralism and avoid using veto power purely for national gain. A rules-based order promotes global peace and stability in trade, investment, and economic growth.
The UN Security Council must also reform its structure by expanding its permanent membership to include developing countries such as Brazil, India and South Africa to create a more balanced power structure. Smaller developing island states that are disproportionately affected by climate change also deserve representation. These reforms would promote a more democratic, transparent, and responsive UN through power decentralisation and reducing the dominance of robust economies.
As per the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), reporting military emissions is voluntary, leading many countries to withhold emission data related to military activities. The UN must enforce mandatory disclosure of military emissions and set global decarbonisation targets for the defence sector.
The UN has repeatedly raised the issue of underfunding. Underfunding affects peacekeeping operations, climate resilience programmes, and humanitarian aid. Member states, especially larger economies, must fulfil their financial obligations without any delays. Moreover, additional voluntary contributions must be encouraged to sustain development programmes in regions affected by climate change, conflict, and poverty.
More important now is that the member states should operate behind the 'veil of ignorance' to make decisions rationally, without bias or self-interest, ensuring fairer outcomes for all. Along with structural and financial reforms, the UN needs a shift in mindset towards collective fairness.
The writer works as an Economist at the WOTR Center for Resilience Studies (W-CReS), where he focus on sustainable development, climate finance, rural resilience, and climate change
