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18-04-2025
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Netflix Darling Stocks Rise as Korea Election, Tariff Haven Bets
(Bloomberg) -- South Korean entertainment stocks rose Friday after the nation's presidential front-runner pledged greater support for cultural exports and government incentives for the industry. Trump Signs Executive Orders on Federal Purchasing, Office Space DOGE Places Entire Staff of Federal Homelessness Agency on Leave Trump Administration Takes Over New York Penn Station Revamp How Did This Suburb Figure Out Mass Transit? Why the Best Bike Lanes Always Get Blamed K-culture shares are getting fresh attention on the election as well as their relative insulation from tariff concerns. The sector got a boost a few years ago as the Netflix Inc. blockbuster Squid Game sent investors looking for the next big Korean hit, though that charm had started to wear off. Lee Jae-myung, who is the favorite to win the June 3 presidential vote, will 'sharply increase' the budget for the culture and entertainment industries if elected, he said in a Facebook post Friday. The former head of the opposition party also promised greater tax benefits for the industry. Shares of KidariStudio Inc., which produces online comics known as webtoons, jumped as much as 15% in Seoul before erasing the gain. K-pop agency YG Entertainment Inc. climbed as much as 5%, and drama producer Studio Dragon Corp. gained 4.4%. 'We will be reborn as a clear cultural powerhouse,' putting South Korea among the major global nations in terms of soft power, Lee said, targeting 50 trillion won ($35 billion) in cultural exports by 2030. South Korea's cultural exports totaled $14.2 billion in 2023. Lee has positioned webtoons as a key pillar in the nation's entertainment industry, along with K-food, K-beauty, K-pop and K-drama. He is running in the election following the impeachment of former leader Yoon Suk Yeol over a botched martial law attempt. K-entertainment stocks have also been attracting interest again as investors see such fields as more immune from the direct impact of US tariffs than more physical products such as semiconductors and autos. KidariStudio is up more than 20% this month while fellow webtoon firm Mr Blue Corp. has surged more than 50%. Drama producer ContentreeJoongAng Corp. and K-pop agency SM Entertainment Co. are up more than 5% each in April. --With assistance from Soo-Hyang Choi. How Mar-a-Lago Memberships Explain Trump's Tariff Obsession Trade Tensions With China Clear Path for Salt-Powered Batteries It's Legal to Pay US Workers With Disabilities as Little as 25¢ an Hour Trump Is Firing the Wrong People, on Purpose GM's Mary Barra Has to Make a $35 Billion EV Bet Work in Trump's America ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
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18-04-2025
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Iran's Space Program Is Growing Stronger Despite US Sanctions
(Bloomberg) -- Iran's southeastern seaport of Chabahar is a popular tourist destination renowned for its cliff-lined beaches and rugged, treeless peaks known locally as 'Martian mountains.' Soon the region will have more than just a poetic connection to outer space. Trump Signs Executive Orders on Federal Purchasing, Office Space DOGE Places Entire Staff of Federal Homelessness Agency on Leave Trump Administration Takes Over New York Penn Station Revamp How Did This Suburb Figure Out Mass Transit? Why the Best Bike Lanes Always Get Blamed For years, construction has been underway to transform the sun-drenched coastal town into an economic hub, including a spaceport that's set to open this year. The plan is to build the equivalent of Florida's Cape Canaveral to anchor the Islamic Republic's space ambitions. It's a program that President Donald Trump has tried to stop because the US sees the technologies for space launches and ballistic missiles as virtually identical. During his first term, the US imposed sanctions on Iran's space agency, but that hasn't prevented Iran from building one of the most advanced programs in the Middle East — with the Iranian Space Agency and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps both sending rockets and satellites to orbit. New projects include a network of 20 internet satellites named for Qassem Soleimani, the general killed in a Trump-ordered air strike in 2020. Concerns over Iran's development of both nuclear and missile technology have dominated the West's relationship with the Islamic Republic for more than 20 years. Since Trump's reelection, Tehran's stockpile of uranium enriched near the level needed for nuclear arms has surged more than 50%, the International Atomic Energy Agency has said, once again raising concerns about its military potential. Trump has urged Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to agree to a new nuclear deal or face possible military action. Negotiators from Washington and Tehran conducted talks in Oman on April 12 and are preparing for a second meeting. Iran has had to reassess its capabilities with its partners in Gaza and Lebanon weakened by fighting with Israel after the 2023 attacks by Hamas. Its Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad has also been overthrown by rebels. Western officials and experts increasingly see the Islamic Republic's sophisticated space program as a key component of its defense capabilities. 'Iran's work on space-launch vehicles — including its two-stage, liquid-fueled Simorgh satellite carrier rocket — likely shortens the timeline to produce an ICBM due to the similarities in technology,' General Anthony Cotton, commander of US Strategic Command, said in prepared testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 26. Iran's foreign ministry and the White House National Security Council didn't respond to requests for comment on this article. The Iranian space progress comes at a time when many nations and private companies are investing heavily to boost space military capabilities like spy satellites and satellite jammers. Official figures for the total cost of Iran's space program so far aren't available. With the economy squeezed by US sanctions, the government has continued to support its space program, albeit on tight budgets: Last November, a senior Iranian official said the space agency would receive around $11 million of financing to boost the sector. It's also gained from Iran's stronger relationship with Russia in recent years. In January, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a strategic partnership agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Last year, a Russian rocket launched the first two privately-developed Iranian satellites to orbit. Russia is using Iranian-made drones in its war in Ukraine and is offering knowledge developed over decades of space exploration, said Juliana Suess, researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. 'What Russia definitely has is the expertise,' she said. 'That's something that Iran is after.' Iran's ability to launch more satellites could enable it to use spacecraft to better guide offensive weapons. Iranians 'can become much more precise in their targeting and have quicker reaction times to launch their own ballistic missile forces to hit targets much more precisely,' said John Sheldon, Abu Dhabi-based founding partner at AstroAnalytica, a space consulting firm. The West is increasingly concerned about the strategic and military implications of Iran's advances. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government sanctioned Brigadier General Ali Jafarabadi, head of the Space Division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Aerospace Force, last September and the Iranian Space Agency in October. The EU also sanctioned Jafarabadi in October, saying his division was 'involved in the development and future launch of satellite carriers, which are essential for the development of long-range ballistic missile systems.' The IRGC, the powerful branch of Iran's armed forces, was designated a terrorist organization by Trump during his first term. Iranian leaders acknowledge space's role in developing weapons, with Pezeshkian referring to Iran's space program as a driving force behind its missile development. 'Our enemies constantly try to prevent us from standing on our own feet, but this has driven us to achieve scientific and technological advancements,' he said in February. Although Iran has always denied it wants nuclear weapons and insists its uranium enrichment is for civilian purposes only, progress in space may offer Tehran an opportunity to assert resilience and strength. 'Iran has a need now, especially after the losses of its proxy power to Israel, to reestablish some kind of pathway to do power projection,' said Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of national security and political science at the University of New Haven. 'They see space technology and aeronautical technology as a place to do it.' Much depends on the success of Chabahar, a project that's been plagued by delays and was meant to be ready by 2024. The opening is now set for this year, the Tehran Times newspaper reported in January, citing space agency chief, Hassan Salarieh. When it's finally finished, Chabahar will be a 14,000-hectare (54-square-mile) complex that will serve as Iran's primary hub for space missions, he said. Chabahar is critical to the Iranian government's strategy, since the facility should increase the ability to launch more powerful spacecraft. Chabahar is also closer to the equator than Iran's other launch sites, allowing rockets to take better advantage of the Earth's spin compared to more northerly sites. Working on large rockets for space 'positions them better to be able to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles,' said John Caves, senior research associate at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control in Washington. Both a space rocket and an intercontinental ballistic missile can travel outside the Earth's atmosphere. 'Some of the technology that you need to be able to have a missile go that far is similar to things that you would work on for a space launch vehicle,' he said. 'There are some things that basically they can learn from working on the space launch vehicle that then they could apply to an ICBM.' Iran's neighbors are promoting pan-Arab partnership, with 14 countries taking part in the Arab Space Cooperation Group, said Mohamed Ibrahim Al Aseeri, CEO of Bahrain's space agency. Although he said Tehran's 'very advanced capabilities' didn't pose a threat, Al Aseeri said in an interview that Bahrain needed to respond to the way Iran and other nations use space for military and security purposes. 'It is a competition and the best way to deal with it is to be ready and to develop your own technology,' he said. Meanwhile, Israeli officials have made public statements accusing Iran of using the space program as cover for military missile technologies. Officials in Tehran argue that having a space program is about securing the same access to advanced technology that's available to the West, rather than building a long-range missile threat to the US. Sina Azodi, adjunct professor of international affairs at George Washington University, said it's highly unlikely that Iran will use its space program to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles, knowing that they would be easily thwarted by the US. 'The accusation against Iran is that its space program is used to cover the pursuit of intercontinental ballistic missiles, but without nuclear warheads, it doesn't make sense,' said Azodi. 'What are you going to do with that ICBM? Set up a conventional warhead to attack the US? Iran won't do that.' Much like its nuclear program, Iran sees space technology as something that can give it stature in the region and the wider world, beyond developing its military capabilities. 'Prestige is a major driver of these programs for Iran,' Dina Esfandiary, Middle East Geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics said. Still, Iran has encountered many challenges, including delays in the opening of the Chabahar spaceport. Two satellite launches scheduled for the Iranian calendar year ending in March didn't happen, with the space agency moving them to the new year. Salarieh is already talking about even more ambitious projects such as advanced capsules capable of sending humans to space. Iran's ability to achieve such goals could depend on the outcome of the negotiations with the US. The fact that the two sides are even talking is significant, said H.A. Hellyer, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress in Washington. 'These were introductory talks, so not a great deal of substance should have been expected, but what did happen was still very symbolic," he said. How Mar-a-Lago Memberships Explain Trump's Tariff Obsession Trade Tensions With China Clear Path for Salt-Powered Batteries It's Legal to Pay US Workers With Disabilities as Little as 25¢ an Hour Trump Is Firing the Wrong People, on Purpose GM's Mary Barra Has to Make a $35 Billion EV Bet Work in Trump's America ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. 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18-04-2025
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China Pivots From US to Canada for More Oil as Trade War Worsens
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese refiners are importing record amounts of Canadian crude after slashing purchases of US oil by roughly 90% amid escalating trade tensions. Trump Signs Executive Orders on Federal Purchasing, Office Space How Did This Suburb Figure Out Mass Transit? Why the Best Bike Lanes Always Get Blamed LA County Floats Leaner Budget Burdened by Fire and Legal Costs DOGE Places Entire Staff of Federal Homelessness Agency on Leave A pipeline expansion in Western Canada that opened less than a year ago has presented China and other East Asian oil importers with expanded access to the vast crude reserves in Alberta's oilsands region. Chinese crude imports from the port at the pipeline terminus near Vancouver soared to an unprecedented 7.3 million barrels in March and are on pace to exceed that figure this month, according to data from Vortexa Ltd., which tracks waterborne oil and natural-gas shipments. Meanwhile, Chinese imports of US oil have collapsed to 3 million barrels a month from a peak of 29 million in June. The shift in North American crude flows to China — the world's biggest crude importer — is yet another example of the economic and strategic disruptions engendered by US President Donald Trump's moves to reshape global trade relations. To be clear, China's appetite for Canadian crude began to grow when the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion known as TMX began funneling Albertan oil to British Columbia's Pacific coast in May. The trend only accelerated after Trump took office with a declared intent to impose tariffs on China and others. 'Given the trade war, its unlikely for China to import more US oil,' Wenran Jiang, president of the Canada-China Energy & Environment Forum, said in a telephone interview. 'They are not going to bank on Russian alone or Middle Eastern alone. Anything from Canada will be welcome news.' Although Chinese oil imports from North America are dwarfed by those the Middle East and Russia, Canada's oil sands provide one of the few sources of relatively cheap, dense, high-sulfur grades of crude that many of China's most-advanced refineries are equipped to process. For Asian refiners, Middle East crude with similar characteristics — such as Iraq's Basrah Heavy — are expensive relative to Alberta oil given the strength in the region's Dubai benchmark. GM's Mary Barra Has to Make a $35 Billion EV Bet Work in Trump's America Trade Tensions With China Clear Path for Salt-Powered Batteries How Mar-a-Lago Memberships Explain Trump's Tariff Obsession Trump Is Firing the Wrong People, on Purpose The Beauty Salon Recession Indicator ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
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17-04-2025
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Trump Says US to Sign Ukraine Minerals Deal Next Thursday
(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump said the US and Ukraine would sign a deal on critical minerals next Thursday, in a step expected to keep Kyiv in good favor as the White House seeks to broker a quick ceasefire deal with Russia. Trump Signs Executive Orders on Federal Purchasing, Office Space DOGE Places Entire Staff of Federal Homelessness Agency on Leave How Did This Suburb Figure Out Mass Transit? Why the Best Bike Lanes Always Get Blamed Nashville's $3 Billion Transit Plan Brings a Call for Zoning Reform 'We have a minerals deal which I guess is going to be signed on Thursday,' Trump said while meeting with Italian Prime Minster Giorgia Meloni in the Oval Office. 'And I assume they're going to live up to the deal.' The announcement puts the agreement — which fell through after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy clashed with Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office — back on track, and suggests both sides have agreed to the contours of the accord governing postwar plans to exploit the country's mineral deposits and rebuild its infrastructure. The agreement comes as Trump has vacillated between blaming Moscow and Kyiv for failing to end the war that began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Trump has demanded a joint US-Ukraine development deal as compensation for the weapons and other aid the US provided under his predecessor, Joe Biden. Earlier this months Ukraine and US have conducted technical discussions on the deal and agreed to sign transitional memorandum of intent, fixing the positive steps, made by the parties. The document was signed online late Thursday, clearing the way 'for an Economic Partnership Agreement and the establishment of the Investment Fund for the Reconstruction of Ukraine,' Ukraine's Vice Prime-Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said in a post on X. 'This document is the result of the professional work of the negotiating teams, which recently completed another round of technical discussions in Washington,' Svyrydenko added. The partnership accord would grant the US first claim on profits transferred into a special reconstruction investment fund that would be controlled by Washington. In negotiations, Kyiv has pressed for better terms and refused to recognize the past US assistance as debt. Following a round of negotiations in Washington, the Trump administration reduced its estimate for the assistance the US provided to Kyiv since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion from $300 billion to about $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. This bring it closer to Ukraine's own estimate of more than $90 billion. Trump backtracked from recent comments in which he said Zelenskiy was to blame for the war in Ukraine — while still lobbing criticism at the Ukrainian leader. 'I don't hold Zelenskiy responsible but I'm not exactly thrilled with the fact that war started,' Trump said. He added that he was not happy with Zelenskiy because of the bloody toll of the war. 'I wouldn't say he's done the greatest job,' he said. 'I'm not a fan.' Still, Trump said, his attention was on getting Russian leader Vladimir Putin to agree to end the fighting. 'I'm trying to get him to stop, because as you know, Russia's a lot bigger,' Trump said. (Updates with Ukraine's vice-prime minister's comments, in fifth paragraph) Trade Tensions With China Clear Path for Salt-Powered Batteries GM's Mary Barra Has to Make a $35 Billion EV Bet Work in Trump's America How Mar-a-Lago Memberships Explain Trump's Tariff Obsession Trump Is Firing the Wrong People, on Purpose The Monastery Where Founders Meditate on Code and Profit ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
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17-04-2025
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Beneath Market's Uneasy Calm, Dread Runs Deep Across Wall Street
(Bloomberg) -- It was an unexpected, if improbable relief. The panic unleashed by Donald Trump's trade war, which convulsed financial markets around the globe and sowed doubts about America's standing in the world, died down nearly as quickly as it began. Trump Signs Executive Orders on Federal Purchasing, Office Space DOGE Places Entire Staff of Federal Homelessness Agency on Leave How Did This Suburb Figure Out Mass Transit? Why the Best Bike Lanes Always Get Blamed Nashville's $3 Billion Transit Plan Brings a Call for Zoning Reform The S&P 500 Index — after swinging more than 10% in a single day as volatility hit levels not seen since the pandemic's onset or the 2008 credit crisis — this week settled into something of an uneasy calm. The VIX Index, or fear gauge, pulled back sharply from pandemic highs. And US government bonds once again reclaimed their longstanding role as the world's 'risk-free' asset. Yet all across Wall Street, from bond-trading desks and corporate C-suites, to hedge funds and independent research firms, there's a deep-seated sense of foreboding that it can't possibly last — and that with a single social-media post by the US president it could all rapidly go awry. 'This is just one guy controlling trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars,' said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. 'We have never really seen anything to this extent — ever.' By backpedaling on his most punitive tariffs, signaling his willingness to negotiate with America's trading partners, and then holding back from further escalating, Trump pulled markets back from the brink and restored a semblance of normalcy. The about-face came after waves of frantic selling sent Treasury yields surging last week, which threatened to upend the economy and fanned fears that his policy priorities would irreparably fracture both America's alliances and its standing as the preeminent destination for global capital. But his chaotic, on-again, off-again effort to single-handedly rewrite the rules of global trade that have prevailed for decades — and his initial indifference to the market meltdown it set off — has undermined confidence in the direction of the US economy, and by extension, where asset prices of all kinds are headed. On Friday, Trump even cast doubt on the Federal Reserve's independence by suggesting he could oust Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn't lower interest rates. 'The market has a lot of excess fear,' said Jay Genzer, founder and CIO at Thames Capital Management LLC. 'We've seen the massive event but there's a lot to be nervous about.' Trump's push to increase levies on imports to the highest in over a century is almost certain to deal the nation another inflation shock and slow a resilient US economy that in recent years has powered much of the world's growth. His decision to pause some of his highest levies for negotiations — even as he kept steep ones on China — has only added to the uncertainty. Recent earnings reports, which usually provide stock-market reality check, underscored how much the outlook has shifted in a matter of weeks. Those from banks like Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. showed business held up well during the recent quarter, thanks in large part to still-healthy consumer spending. With consumers worried about the impact of Trump's tariffs and businesses in wait-and-see mode, though, there's little clarity about where profits are headed. United Airlines Holdings Inc. took the unusual step of issuing two forecasts, seeking to reassure jittery investors that it would still earn solid profits even if there's a US recession. Bob Doll, the chief executive of Crossmark Global Investments, is contending with similar doubts. Usually, he said, he can entertain a relatively narrow range on his calls for where the stock market is heading. On Wednesday, though, as the S&P 500 held around 5,350 — he said it could tumble down to near 4,000, or jump back to 5,800, depending on whether the US dodges a recession or not. 'You can drive a truck through that range,' he said. Wall Street strategists have been ratcheting down expectations for US equities. Citigroup Inc. joined others that are growing more cautious on the outlook. But, on the whole, such forecasters remain relatively optimistic, with the average estimate implying bounceback by the end of the year. Raheel Siddiqui, a senior strategist at Neuberger Berman, said as deep as the stock market's slide has been, it's still not pricing in the risk that Trump is willing to endure a temporary recession to implement an agenda he hopes will revive the nation's manufacturing industry. 'When we look at the US stock market, we don't see recession priced in,' he said. 'When a president says 'recession so what, short-term pain, long-term gain,' you don't know to what extent he is willing to go. If he keeps going, at some point he will break the camel's back.' In the bond market, the selloff that raged last week has largely abated, sowing some optimism that it was driven heavily by the unwinding of leveraged positions and a hurried need to raise cash instead of a loss of confidence in the US government. None of those concerns has gone away, however, with officials and investors continuing to express concern that the recent volatility is casting doubt on the US Treasury market's status as a haven. Yet Trump's decision to pause his tariffs just as the selloff was worsening provided some reassurance that he's not willing to let the bond market sink too far. 'When you see the 10-year increase by half a percent over a very short period, it's going against what the administration is hoping to accomplish,' said Scott Pike, senior portfolio manager at Income Research + Management. 'It was not hard for the administration to take note of that and change course.' Still, he said, the volatile selloff has left bond investors nursing worries about whether they're being paid enough for the risks now hovering over the Treasury market. 'It's going to take a while for concerns around that to move lower,' he said. --With assistance from Ye Xie, Matt Turner and Jeran Wittenstein. 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