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New York Times
27-05-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Why these 5 NHL restricted free agents could become trade candidates this offseason
There will likely be some sticker shock when fans see some of the contracts players earn this offseason as we enter a new era of NHL salary cap growth. This inflationary climate means some teams have tough decisions to make on specific restricted free agents who are in line for significant raises. If the club is fully sold on the player's ability and long-term fit — and if the player is willing to stay — it's usually straightforward to agree to a lengthy contract extension that makes both sides happy. However, sometimes there is a gap between the agent's and the team's perceived value of the player or their future role, and that's when matters can become complicated. Advertisement For example, if a player breaks out in their platform season, the surging cost of that RFA's next contract can scare a team. In that case, they could look to explore a 'prove it' two or three-year bridge deal that clocks in at a lower cap hit instead of making a massive long-term commitment. In extreme cases, teams can sell high on the player and trade them, similar to what the Buffalo Sabres did when they dealt Casey Mittelstadt to the Colorado Avalanche at the 2024 trade deadline. It's widely assumed that the Detroit Red Wings' surprising decision to trade Filip Hronek to the Vancouver Canucks in 2023, when he was in the middle of a breakout, was at least partially motivated by the fear of what his next contract in the 2024 offseason would cost, as another example. Teams must be more proactive and delicate when handling their RFAs, especially after the St. Louis Blues successfully offer-sheeted Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg last summer. The idea of an offer-sheet frenzy this offseason seems overblown, but it is a more legitimate leverage ploy for players in negotiations than ever before. Here, we will examine five fascinating RFA quandaries teams will face this offseason. This is not meant to be a list of players who are guaranteed to be out the door in summer trades; it's just that their contract situations are complex and will require extra thought and consideration. A favorable contract extension would probably be the No. 1 preference for these teams, but if talks go sideways, it could open the door to the possibility of a trade. Contract projections: eight years at $8 million (Evolving-Hockey), five years at $7.2 million (AFP Analytics) Bowen Byram doesn't seem like an ideal long-term fit in Buffalo for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the Sabres already have $19.35 million committed long-term to Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, two offensively gifted left-shot defensemen. It probably doesn't make sense for Buffalo to dole out another huge contract to a third left-shot defenseman with a similar offensively oriented skill set. Byram switched agents earlier this month, too, which can sometimes be a sign that a player isn't entirely happy with their situation. Advertisement Byram's precise value as a player is also tricky to determine. The 23-year-old has tantalizing skating and puck-moving skills, and he flashed star-level potential during Colorado's 2022 Stanley Cup victory, and yet his underlying play-driving numbers have been mediocre since then, even going back to the end of his tenure with the Avalanche. This year, he drove strong results when paired with Dahlin but struggled when paired with anybody else. It'd be risky to potentially commit a $7.5-8 million cap hit on a long-term deal to a defenseman who, while young and talented, hasn't proven he can drive his own pair yet. The Sabres would be best off either trading Byram for a haul this summer or inking him to a cheaper, short-term bridge contract in the $6-6.5 million AAV range, though the latter would come with its own risk since any bridge deal longer than a year would walk him to straight to unrestricted free agency. Contract projections: eight years at $7.7 million (Evolving-Hockey), seven years at $7.4 million (AFP Analytics) Normally, you'd think a homegrown 23-year-old center coming off a 60-point season would be off-limits for other teams. Young top-six centers are the kind of core pieces that organizations build long-term around. However, Marco Rossi's situation in Minnesota has become strange and his future is uncertain. Rossi was inexplicably buried on the fourth line during the Wild's first-round loss despite excelling in a top-six role throughout the entire regular season. He averaged just 11:08 a game in the playoffs, a far cry from the 18:15 he averaged during the regular season. Rossi told reporters he was 'very disappointed' by his usage during his end-of-year media availability. The main knock on Rossi is that he's undersized at 5-foot-9. He's a fierce competitor, a reliable goal scorer who has scored 20+ goals in back-to-back years and has solid two-way IQ, but teams sometimes hesitate to commit big dollars and term to players that lack size and elite speed. Advertisement Evolving-Hockey and AFP Analytics believe Rossi should command an AAV in the $7.5 million range on a long-term deal. I'm skeptical that the Wild would commit that aggressively to him when they didn't even use him like a top-nine forward in the postseason. GM Bill Guerin, who has often prioritized size and grit while building his roster, may look at Rossi's small frame and conclude he isn't cut out to be the 2C on a contender. A medium-term contract in the three- to five-year range, with a cheaper AAV in the $5-6 million neighborhood, could be a reasonable compromise, but is that in Rossi's best interest? He may either feel uncertain about his top-six role with the club or want to capitalize on his 60-point breakout with the security that a lucrative long-term contract provides. Rossi isn't arbitration-eligible, so that reduces his leverage, but he could be an offer-sheet target considering how many teams will be shopping for center help this summer. It isn't far-fetched to think Rossi could become a trade chip if contract talks become difficult, even though there's a decent chance a trade would backfire against the Wild long-term. Contract projections: eight years at $10.1 million (Evolving-Hockey), eight years at $10.3 million (AFP Analytics) Noah Dobson and the Isles are in a tricky, high-stakes situation. The 25-year-old exploded for 70 points and finished eighth in Norris Trophy voting in 2023-24. However, he's coming off a disappointing 2024-25 season where he produced just 39 points in 71 games. Dobson is an enormously talented top-pair defenseman, but his defensive play has flaws, and his offensive production has clearly vacillated. A $10 million AAV projection for Dobson might seem too high given his down year, but he's paced for an average of 56 points per season over the last four years. Jakob Chychrun, who is also far from perfect defensively, recently earned $9 million AAV on an eight-year extension with the Capitals despite a career high of only 47 points. Chychrun is a more prolific scorer than Dobson, but the latter is a better overall point producer and player, excluding this season, and a more premium asset as a right-shot defenseman. Advertisement For the Isles to commit a $10 million AAV to Dobson long-term, they'd have to be confident that he's a bona fide No. 1 defenseman, which is an open question at this point. New York could try exploring a four- to six-year deal at a lower cap hit, but would the player be open to that? Dobson has a lot of leverage here despite his down season — he's arbitration-eligible and only one year away from UFA status. If the Islanders aren't ready to pay Dobson like a No. 1 defenseman, he could file for arbitration, take the one-year settlement and walk himself to free agency next summer. All of these dynamics — Dobson's down year, the $10 million AAV projection for a long-term deal and the leverage he has in arbitration — make this a challenging situation for the Islanders to navigate. Contract projections: four years at $5.9 million (Evolving-Hockey), six years at $6 million (AFP Analytics) K'Andre Miller, 25, has become a polarizing defenseman in New York. Two years ago, Miller looked like one of the most promising young defensemen in the NHL, scoring 43 points and eating huge top-four minutes as a 23-year-old. He unfortunately stagnated in 2023-24, and took a clear step back this season. The 6-foot-5 left shot committed costly turnovers, was at the center of tough defensive lapses and saw his offensive production slip to 27 points in 74 games in 2024-25. He has all the physical/athletic gifts in the world but struggles with his decision-making/hockey IQ at times. Miller is already coming off a two-year, $3.872 million AAV bridge deal, so you'd assume he's looking for a lucrative, long-term payday this time around. That presents an interesting dilemma for the Rangers: Are they ready to invest long-term in him, or do they fear he's never going to reach the potential he flashed two years ago, in which case it may be prudent to sell him while he'd still be a very valuable asset around the league? Advertisement I'd argue the Rangers should extend Miller and bet on a bounce-back for a few reasons: • The Rangers' blue line, especially on the left side following Ryan Lindgren's departure, is thin on impact difference-makers. Miller is the Rangers' second-highest upside defenseman after Adam Fox. • It'd be risky to give up on Miller without first seeing what a new Mike Sullivan-led coaching staff and system could do for his game. It's probably not a coincidence that almost every Rangers defenseman, Fox included, underperformed under Peter Laviolette and Phil Housley this season. • Miller and Fox have posted dominant results together in the past, controlling 63 percent of shot attempts and 65 percent of expected goals in nearly 500 five-on-five minutes together over the last three seasons. They don't have a huge sample size together, but it's particularly relevant since Lindgren's departure means Fox needs a new partner next season. Keeping Miller isn't a straightforward decision, though, because the Rangers have less than $10 million of cap space this summer, according to PuckPedia. They need to feel confident he'll rebound to justify handing out a long-term contract. Contract projections: seven years at $7.8 million (AFP Analytics), six years at $6.8 million (Evolving-Hockey) Don't be surprised if JJ Peterka can command an $8 million AAV, or at least close to it, on a long-term extension. Matt Coronato, a 22-year-old winger, broke out this season with 24 goals and 47 points. He recently signed a seven-year extension with the Calgary Flames at a $6.5 million cap hit. Peterka's statistical profile is much stronger than Coronato's — he scored 68 points this season and scored 28 goals and 50 points in 2023-24. The 23-year-old Sabres winger is a higher-end, more proven top-six scorer than Coronato, and his price tag should reflect that. Peterka is an excellent offensive creator, but his defensive impact was dreadful this season. During Peterka's five-on-five shifts, the Sabres bled 3.04 expected goals against per 60 and 3.35 actual goals against per 60, which was by far the worst mark among all Buffalo forwards. His defensive rating ranked in the bottom five percent of league forwards according to Dom Luszczyszyn's Net Rating model. That's where the question lies for the Sabres. Do they believe Peterka is worth a potential $7.5-8 million cap hit moving forward, considering his defensive warts this season? Peterka is young enough that he should be able to improve his play without the puck, and it's worth noting that his defensive numbers weren't nearly as bad in 2023-24, so perhaps this year's nightmarish defensive numbers are just a one-off, but it's a question mark nonetheless. I think the Sabres should bet on his talent and sign him long-term, but it's possible they could dangle him as a trade chip to shake up their core and address other needs, such as the club's dire need for top-four right-handed defense help. (Top photo of Bowen Byram: Al Bello / Getty Images)
New York Times
27-05-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Canucks free-agent targets: 9 defenders who could complete Vancouver's blue-line
Under Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin, the Vancouver Canucks have thrown significant assets, money, draft capital and time to upgrade the club's defense corps. Slowly, but surely, those efforts have paid off. Even as the club has bled depth and talent up front, especially down the middle of their forward group, Vancouver's back-end is as chock full of upside, talent and potential as it's ever been in franchise history. Advertisement Obviously the club's back-end push is primarily driven by Quinn Hughes, still the reigning Norris Trophy winner (although he is unlikely to repeat, mostly due to injury). Even beyond the greatest individual defenseman in franchise history, however, Vancouver has a couple of additional top-pair calibre blue-liners on the roster (Filip Hronek, Marcus Pettersson), an additional sturdy, veteran in Tyler Myers and a stable of promising young defenders poised to establish themselves as everyday players as soon as next season in Victor Mancini, Elias Pettersson and Tom Willander. While the blue line seems relatively set, especially when compared with the state of the Canucks forward group, it's abundantly clear that the Canucks will need to add one more experienced, reliable player — ideally one with some penalty killing expertise — to their back end this summer. Perhaps it's as simple as re-signing Derek Forbort, whose penalty killing in particular proved to be spectacular in his one Vancouver season. Forbort, 33, however will be in demand and have some decent options this summer. If the club can't come to terms on a deal to keep him, reinforcements will have to be found elsewhere. The critical takeaway here is that while the Canucks will clearly proportion a greater share of their energy and resources this summer to reimagining their forward group, we shouldn't confuse the potential that the organization holds on the back-end with the notion that it's finished or settled going into this offseason. The club will need to add (or retain) at least one, and very likely two, veteran defenders to fill out this group. So let's get into some of the unrestricted free agent options the club may consider this summer. The headliner on this list is a local product, Coquitlam-born defender Dante Fabbro. Fabbro, 26, had spent his entire playing career with the Nashville Predators as a depth defenseman, but enjoyed a breakout season with the Columbus Blue Jackets following an early-season acquisition that saw him land in Central Ohio. Advertisement Paired up with Blue Jackets star Zach Werenski, Fabbro scored a career high nine goals and played steady, reliable defense while logging top pair minutes at five-on-five. He was also an effective secondary penalty killing option. The goal totals and overall minutes burden that Fabbro effectively handled will put him in line for a significant raise on the $2.5 million that he earned this past season. He may have some additional utility for a team like the Canucks, however, given his track record complimenting star puck-moving left-handed defenders (Werenski, and also Roman Josi). Certainly he'd give Adam Foote and his coaching staff some additional options in composing their defense pairs. Perbix seemingly came out of nowhere and emerged as a bright spot on Tampa's blue line as a 24-year-old rookie in the 2022-23 season. He was surprisingly adept at supporting more talented partners, so he split time playing with Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev. At that time, it appeared that he might have the potential to grow into a quality No.4/5 defenseman. Jon Cooper experimented with increasing Perbix's ice time and the difficulty of his matchups during his sophomore campaign in 2023-24. The results were mixed, so the Lightning deployed him like a regular third-pair defenseman playing relatively sheltered matchups this season. Perbix owns a big 6-foot-4 frame (though he's not overly physical), skates well, and can contribute some secondary even-strength offence from the backend. He's driven solid two-way results, with the Lightning controlling a positive share of scoring chances and goals during his five-on-five shifts. Perbix is prone to occasionally making costly turnovers or getting caught out of position defensively, but the overall results prove that he's a serviceable depth defenseman with the size, skating, and puck skills to excel as a No.6/7 defenseman. Advertisement One factor that could work against Perbix is that he doesn't have much penalty killing experience at the NHL level. That could make him a suboptimal fit when you consider that many of the Canucks' young, up-and-coming defencemen (Elias Pettersson, Tom Willander, Victor Mancini) also don't have much big-league shorthanded experience, especially in the wake of Forbort's possible departure, too. Josh Mahura, 27, is a depth option on the back-end more in the mold of Erik Brännström than a sturdy, shutdown defender like Forbort. Mahura, who spent last season with the Seattle Kraken, is a strong skater who has often fared very well on a third pair in prescribed usage. He's capable of complimenting heavier, more physical defenders — like he often did in Florida, playing alongside Radko Gudas — and can be a helpful contributor in that sort of role. Overall Mahura would be an interesting depth addition, a classic seven or eight-type defender capable of skating with a player like Tyler Myers or playing a transitional style of defense alongside a younger player like Victor Mancini or Tom Willander on a third pair. Dumoulin may not be the elite top-four shutdown beast he was during his prime with Rutherford's Penguins, but he's still a dependable veteran blue-liner. The 33-year-old left-shot defender spent most of 2024-25, which was split between the Ducks and Devils, logging top-four minutes. Dumoulin was forced to take on a more difficult role than he's ideally suited for because of Anaheim's weak blue line — at the time of his trade to New Jersey, he had played the most minutes against 'elite' competition of any Ducks defenseman, according to PuckIQ. He had rough underlying numbers in Anaheim, but that shouldn't be too alarming because the team environment and role weren't conducive to positive results. By the eye test, he held his own about as reasonably as you could have expected. In New Jersey, Dumoulin still averaged nearly 19 minutes per game because of the Devils' backend injury woes. He performed well and then crushed all expectations in the playoffs, averaging over 22 minutes per game while looking like one of the team's most valuable defensemen. Dumoulin is a big-bodied, stay-at-home presence who can kill penalties. He's similar to the 2023-24 Canucks version of Ian Cole in that Dumoulin is probably best served in a third pair role but can comfortably handle top-four minutes if injuries strike. His steadiness and veteran savvy could be a nice fit alongside the Canucks' young crop of up-and-coming defensemen. The only concern is that he might price himself out of the Canucks' range with how well he played down the stretch and in the postseason. Advertisement Haydn Fleury was originally drafted by the Carolina Hurricanes during Rutherford's tenure as general manager, so there's some connection with the Canucks front office to be mindful of here. The toolsy 6-foot-4 blue liner is an exceptional skater and a smooth puck mover, who has never really put it together to this point in his NHL career. Now a 28-year-old journeyman, Fleury has yet to appear in over 50 NHL games in a single season since his rookie year with the Hurricanes. Despite the inauspicious profile, Fleury can flat out play. He had some really exceptional moments stepping into playoff action for the Winnipeg Jets during the Stanley Cup playoffs, and would add some much needed size, quickness and puck-moving verve at a reasonable price for a team like the Canucks. Hutton isn't flashy or exciting, and he doesn't have extensive NHL experience, but he has qualities that would make him a steady, low-maintenance No.7/8 kind of defenceman. He profiles as a potential Noah Juulsen or Mark Friedman replacement. Hutton has the kind of size (6-foot-3, 210 pounds) that Adam Foote would covet, is generally reliable in his own zone, and can kill penalties. He doesn't do anything high-end enough to justify being an everyday part of a team's lineup — he split time between the NHL and AHL with the Islanders this season — but he'd boost the club's organizational depth on the right side. Importantly, he'd do it without being the kind of player who would block Willander or Mancini from NHL opportunities if either one is ready to take a step. A longtime Pittsburgh Penguins depth piece, Chad Ruhwedel fell out of the NHL and spent significant time at the American League level last season, playing 50 games for the Hartford Wolfpack, in his first AHL stint since 2019. The 35-year-old hails from San Diego, and he remains a high IQ defensive player, an experienced penalty killer and a strong skater with a heavy slap shot. As an organizational depth piece, think late-career Nolan Baumgartner, Ruhwedel's presence would make training camp more competitive for Vancouver's young blue liners and he could be a stabilizing agent for the Canucks if pressed into NHL duty in a depth role. Advertisement At first glance, Barrie might seem like a bit of an awkward fit for the Canucks. Barrie is primarily known for his offensive skill set, and the Canucks don't need a power-play quarterback, with Hughes running the first power-play unit and Hronek manning the second unit. The 33-year-old Victoria, BC native is more than just a power-play specialist, though. He's still a talented puck mover who can connect plays on zone exits. It wouldn't hurt the Canucks to add a veteran right-shot to the mix with that skill set, considering how pitiful the bottom-four defence's puck-moving was in the first half of 2024-25. Think of Barrie as insurance — he can add valuable puck-moving/offensive pop if the club runs into injuries to Quinn Hughes or Filip Hronek again, and he can be an NHL stopgap if Mancini and Willander need a bit of extra time to marinate in the AHL at the start of next season. Barrie would be dirt cheap after a 2024-25 season where he only suited up for 13 games because of Calgary's deeper-than-expected right-side blue-line depth. He's also a hilarious personality and has been a beloved teammate everywhere he's gone. There would be virtually no downside risk to taking a flier on Barrie — in a worst-case scenario where he doesn't look NHL-calibre and/or an opportunity isn't available because one or both of Willander and Mancini exceed expectations, you can always bury him in the press box or minors with zero cap implications. You could probably snag him on a professional tryout contract like the Flames did last fall before committing a contract slot to him, too. Marc Del Gaizo is Group VI unrestricted free agent at the age of 25 this summer. He'll hit the open market early because of a provision in the CBA that permits players who didn't log enough games played to test the market early, at the age of 25. A fourth-round pick back in 2019, Del Gaizo has been a farmhand depth player in the Predators organization throughout his career, but played a career high 47 games this past season and fared very well in a prescribed role on a deeply unstructured team. Although he stands less than 6-foot tall, and isn't the most physical player, Del Gaizo was a standout defensive contributor, based on his effort and two-way IQ. His efforts even more noticeable than they might've otherwise been while playing for a team that struggled enormously to defend. Del Gaizo's performance over the course of the year was solidly promising, and he represents a very intriguing low risk, upside bet for some team to place. With some investment and development, he's the sort of defender that could — if things fall right — help elevate the Canucks' blue line even further. (Top photo of Dante Fabbro of the Columbus Blue Jackets:)
Washington Post
09-02-2025
- Sport
- Washington Post
Brock Boeser breaks 3rd-period tie in the Canucks' 2-1 victory over the Maple Leafs
VANCOUVER, British Columbia — Brock Boeser broke a tie on a power play at 8:56 of the third period and the Vancouver Canucks held on to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1 on Saturday night in the final game for both teams before the 4 Nations Face-Off break. Defenseman Filip Hronek had a goal and an assist for Vancouver. The Canucks have won three straight and six of eight to improve to 26-18-11.
