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Miami Herald
08-05-2025
- Sport
- Miami Herald
Looking for a Kentucky Derby long shot? Here are your best bets to win big money
Journalism will be tough to beat. Sandman has legitimate star power. Sovereignty could very well be wearing the roses by the end of the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday night. But recent history indicates a major long shot might be the horse getting all of the attention after the 151st edition of the race is run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and — even if one of those aforementioned favorites does cross the finish line first — there's likely plenty of money to be made elsewhere. To win big without betting big on Derby Day, you'll need to either hit on one of those overlooked contenders that finds his way into first — like Mystik Dan did last year at 18-1 odds — or pick out the right combination of horses that finish in the money. With such a large field size Saturday, there's plenty of betting money to be spread around, and that means there will be plenty to win if you get your handicapping right. As you finalize your picks for the big race, here are a few long-shot bets to consider. Picking a long shot to win Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the deserving favorite Saturday, but the favorite hasn't won the Kentucky Derby since eventual Triple Crown winner Justify did it seven years ago. Mystik Dan was 18-1 last year. Mage was 15-1 the year before that. Other recent winners include Rich Strike at 81-1 odds three years ago and Country House at 65-1 in 2019. Point being, a major upset hasn't been the most unexpected result in recent years. Who's most likely to do it in this field? Be sure to keep an eye on the Kentucky Derby live odds leading up to post time Saturday, but — as of noon Friday — there were a few intriguing win options at 15-1 or longer. Going by that '15-1 or longer' standard of a long shot, Final Gambit is one to consider. The gray colt was actually 30-1 on the morning line but was bet down to 15-1 by Friday afternoon. His color, popular for casual bettors, surely had something to do with that, but there's some real talent here, too. Final Gambit turned in a career performance in winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park for star trainer Brad Cox last time out, going from last in the 12-horse field in the final turn to a clear winner at the finish line. He earned only a 90 Beyer Speed Figure for that run — not terrific, by the standards of the Derby field — but there's some intrigue here. He's run his last three races on the synthetic surface at Turfway and his only start before that came over the Churchill Downs turf course. So, he's never run on dirt. That's not a disqualifier. Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby at 21-1 odds in his first start on dirt in 2011, and long-shot Rich Strike also raced three times on the synthetic surface at Turfway leading up to his Derby upset three years ago. While the early betting has taken some value away from Final Gambit, he's still worth consideration as a win bet. That move in the Jeff Ruby Steaks was fantastic, and if he can replicate it Saturday — running into what should be a hot pace that sets up well for closers — he could be there in the end, especially if he can handle the dirt kickback he'll be seeing for the first time in his young career. While he's not my favorite contender in the field, Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square is another talented closer with intriguing odds. Though 12-1 on the morning line, he was sitting at 16-1 on Friday afternoon despite Rodriguez and Grande being scratched. That's somewhat of a surprise for a horse that has been training arguably as well as anyone over the Louisville dirt and has local favorite Brian Hernandez Jr. — last year's Derby winner and one of Churchill's all-time leading jockeys — aboard Saturday. And be sure to keep an eye on Baeza as those live odds are updated Saturday. The Santa Anita Derby runner-up drew into the race Thursday with the scratch of Rodriguez and — though lightly raced — he has the look of a potential Kentucky Derby winner. Around the time Baeza got into the field, his odds were hovering around the 50-1 range, but that's because it was unclear if he'd even be eligible for the race. Those odds have shortened quickly since his inclusion and had dropped into the 20-1 range by Friday afternoon. Expect Baeza's odds to keep getting shorter, but if they level out somewhere around his 12-1 number on the morning line, he'll be a great value as a win bet. And speaking of great value, Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty was sitting at 9-1 in the live odds Friday afternoon. That's an incredibly enticing number, even if it doesn't fit our definition of a Derby 'long shot.' Betting tips for Derby trifecta Even if Journalism — or one of the other favorites — wins the Kentucky Derby, the exotic payoffs could still be lucrative. (And if a relative long shot comes in first, those winnings will be huge.) Some recent examples: ▪ When Authentic won the 2020 Derby at 8-1 odds, with 3-5 favorite Tiz the Law coming in second, a $1 trifecta ticket still paid more than $1,300 because the third-place finisher was 46-1 shot Mr. Big News. ▪ When Always Dreaming won the 2017 Derby as the 9-2 favorite, the second- and third-place finishers were Lookin At Lee (33-1) and Battle of Midway (40-1). A $1 trifecta wager paid more than $8,000 that year. ▪ And when Mage was the upset winner at 15-1 two years ago, two of the popular betting choices — Two Phil's (9-1) and race favorite Angel of Empire (4-1) — finished second and third, leading to a $1 trifecta payout of $982. In seven of the last eight Derbys, a $1 trifecta bet has paid at least $982, and at least one horse with 15-1 odds or longer has finished in the top three in each of the past six Derbys. It's important to note that win pools are different from the exacta, trifecta and superfecta pools, so a horse's listed odds won't correspond exactly to his value in the exotic bets. But those odds are usually a pretty good indicator of who's a long shot and who isn't when it comes to trifectas. Some candidates — in addition to Final Gambit and Baeza — to spice up those wagers this year: ▪ Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher looks like a colt with a real chance to finish in the money, given his penchant for coming from the back of the pack and ability to be picking off tired horses in the stretch. He's never won a race — so it would be a pretty big shock if he wins his first one Saturday — but it won't be surprising at all to see him going hard at the end. ▪ Chunk of Gold is an interesting colt and will be one of the longest shots on the board. He lost by nearly 10 lengths to Magnitude back in February, but that horse — off the Derby trail with an injury — turned in one of the best performances of the year that day. Chunk of Gold finished second in the Louisiana Derby after that and has been training splendidly at Turfway Park ever since. ▪ East Avenue has been a perplexing horse over his past four races, with two great performances at Keeneland bookending two absolute duds elsewhere. Of those long shots likely to vie for the early lead Saturday, he seems the best bet to hang around at the end. If he can improve off his gritty run in the Blue Grass Stakes, he could make the trifecta. Good Derby horses if it rains? The weather forecast for Louisville on Saturday is not pretty, with rain almost certain to hit at some point and heavy downpours possible throughout the day. So, what if it rains? While several in this field have run on 'off' tracks before, there's not a whole lot of meaningful history there for anyone in this race. None of the major Kentucky Derby prep races were run in particularly adverse conditions this year. The only horse here that has run on a track labeled as 'sloppy' in 2025 is long-shot Neoequos, who was the wire-to-wire winner of a 6-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park over the slop back in January. Not exactly a great indicator of anything for Saturday. The three top favorites — Journalism, Sandman and Sovereignty — have 19 career races among them, and each of those was run over a fast surface. American Promise did get his first career win over a 'muddy' track at Oaklawn Park on Dec. 29, earning a 95 Beyer — tied for his fastest figure in nine starts — in that race at 1 1/16 miles. Japanese star Luxor Cafe technically has three victories over off tracks this year, but all three of those surfaces were labeled as 'good.' One to watch if it pours is Coal Battle, the feel-good-story colt who beat Sandman, Publisher and Tiztastic in the Rebel Stakes before a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby last time out. Coal Battle is 2-for-2 on wet tracks — both short races in Louisiana at age 2 — and while neither of those starts can compare to the Kentucky Derby, they at least show he's comfortable in the rain. The bigger indicator for possible success in the slop with Coal Battle is the way he runs. This is a fun colt to watch. He has shown some great acceleration in his races and has displayed a stop-and-start ability in morning workouts that lends itself to surefootedness over wet tracks. There are definitely concerns that Coal Battle won't be able to handle the 1¼-mile distance Saturday, but when 3-year-olds get met with this new challenge plus adverse weather conditions for the first time, a lot of preconceived notions can go out the window, and the ones who are comfortable running over the mud can find a way to skip past 'better' horses in the field. That could very well happen Saturday, and Coal Battle is going to be one of the longest shots on the board. Don't ignore him if its a rainy day in Louisville.
Associated Press
04-05-2025
- Sport
- Associated Press
Kentucky Derby Chart
12th Race at Churchill DownsSaturday, May 3, 2025One And One Fourth Miles On The DirtPurse: $5,000,000 Weather: Showery Track: Sloppy (Sealed) ResultPostHorse/Jockey1/4 1/23/4StretchFinish2:02.3118(18)Sovereignty/Alvarado, J.24.19-1648.15-161:12.46-171:37.11-42:02.31-12:02.588(8)Journalism/Rispoli, U.23.52-1047.38-101:11.94-111:36.98-32:02.58-22:02.6221(21)Baeza/Prat, F.23.84-1447.86-151:12.08-121:37.43-72:02.62-32:03.043(3)Final Gambit/Machado, L.24.92-1948.79-191:12.90-191:37.75-112:03.04-42:03.8620(20)Owen Almighty/Castellano, J.22.94-346.50-41:11.07-41:36.84-12:03.86-52:04.119(9)Burnham Square/Hernandez, Jr., B.23.27-747.08-71:11.48-81:37.78-122:04.11-62:04.4417(17)Sandman/Ortiz, Jose24.37-1848.43-181:12.51-181:38.07-142:04.44-72:04.5712(12)East Avenue/Franco, Manuel23.07-646.70-51:11.35-61:37.63-92:04.56-82:04.9719(19)Chunk of Gold/Loveberry, Jareth23.34-847.10-81:11.31-51:37.30-62:04.97-92:05.1114(14)Tiztastic/Rosario, Joel24.35-1748.37-171:12.32-151:38.10-152:05.11-102:05.2116(16)Coal Battle/Vargas, Juan23.53-1147.23-91:11.79-91:37.69-102:05.21-112:05.537(7)Luxor Cafe/Moreira, Joao23.80-1347.66-131:11.89-101:37.54-82:05.53-122:06.922(2)Neoequos/Saez, Luis22.86-246.32-21:10.80-21:36.86-22:06.92-132:07.8113(13)Publisher/Ortiz, Jr., Irad23.85-1547.84-141:12.09-131:38.33-172:07.81-142:08.031(1)Citizen Bull/Garcia, Martin22.81-146.23-11:10.78-11:37.25-52:08.03-152:08.865(5)American Promise/Juarez, Nik22.97-446.48-31:10.85-31:37.85-132:08.86-162:09.0715(15)Render Judgment/Leparoux, Julien23.57-1247.55-121:12.25-141:38.77-182:09.07-172:09.4811(11)Flying Mohawk/Ramos, Joseph23.50-947.51-111:12.38-161:39.38-192:09.48-182:11.626(6)Admire Daytona/ (JPN)Lemaire, Christophe23.02-546.87-61:11.41-71:38.25-162:11.62-19 $0.50 Pick 32-10-18 (3 correct) $64.16. $3.00 Pick 33YO 7-7-18 (3 correct) $1,697.70. $0.50 Pick 3OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY 11-10-18 (3 correct) $43.38. $0.50 Pick 47/8/16/17/18-2-5/10/11-4/10/18 (4 correct )$236.39. $0.50 Pick 5ALL DIRT 5/9/10-7-7-2-4/10/18 (5 correct) $6,594.38. $0.50 Pick 5SEE FOOTNOTE (5 correct) 1,504.44. $1.00 Pick 6OAKS/DERBY (SEE FOOTNOTE) (6 correct) $3,575.33. $1.00 Pick 6OAKS/DERBY (SEE FOOTNOTE) (5 correct) $57.65. $0.20 Pick 6 JackpotSEE FOOTNOTE (6 correct) $2,062.47. $1.00 Daily Double10-18 $26.96 $1.00 Daily DoubleOAKS/DERBY 11-18 $15.78. $2.00 Exacta18-8 $48.32. Copyright 2025, Equibase Company LLC Fractional Times: 22.81; 46.23; 1:10.78; 1:36.84; Final Time: 2:02.31
Yahoo
04-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Sovereignty surges past race favorite Journalism to win the 151st Kentucky Derby
Jockey Junior Alvarado celebrates atop Sovereignty after winning the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Sovereignty pulled away from Journalism down the final stretch to win. (Abbie Parr / Associated Press) Bill Mott is in the Hall of Fame. He won the Kentucky Derby in 2019, but it was by disqualification. The trainer never got to see his horse cross the finish line first. Until now. In an exciting stretch run Sovereignty and Journalism battled until the final strides when Sovereignty pulled ahead to win the 151st Kentucky Derby by 1½ lengths Saturday. Advertisement Sovereignty came to this spot by finishing second in the Florida Derby. But this time he had to navigate the 19-horse field to win on a cold and drizzly day before 147,406 at Churchill Downs. Journalism, the 7-2 favorite, got crowded and shuffled back at the start of the race but going around the far turn, jockey Umberto Rispoli got him to start picking off horses. Sovereignty was following right behind him. When the horses hit the top of the stretch, it was clear it was down to the two horses. The start of the race was very crowded on the inside. Citizen Bull, the 2-year-old Eclipse champion, went into the lead and moved toward the center of the track. The first half mile of the 1 ¼-mile race was run in a fast but not brutal 46.23 seconds. By the end, all that was left were the closers as most of the early speed faded out. Advertisement Baeza, who entered the race on Thursday after Rodriguez scratched out, finished a strong third. The rest of the field, in order was Final Gambit, Owen Almighty, Burnham Square, Sandman, East Avenue, Chunk of Gold, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Luxor Café, Neoequos, Publisher, Citizen Bull, American Promise, Render Judgment, Flying Mohawk and Admire Daytona. Sovereignty paid $17.96 to win. 'He made up a lot of ground in a hurry,' Mott said. "This one got here the right way. I mean, he's done well, he's a great horse. He comes to us from a great organization (Godolphin) and I can't say enough about the horse and the organization that started him out and did everything to make this happen.' The winning rider was Junior Alvarado. It was his first Kentucky Derby win. Sovereignty, ridden by Junior Alvarado, crosses the finish line to win the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. (Jeff Roberson / Associated Press) This marked the return of Bob Baffert to Churchill Downs after the track banned him from racing for three years. The move was made after Medina Spirit tested positive for a legal medication, but not legal on race day. It led to a series of court fights in which Churchill Downs prevailed. Advertisement Baffert brought two horses to run in the Derby, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez. However, Rodriguez was scratched Thursday when he had sensitivity in one of his hooves. The injury was not considered serious and he is now pointed to run in the Preakness Stakes in two weeks. Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial a month ago at Aqueduct. Second in that race was Grande, who scratched Friday morning. The horse had been battling a slightly cracked heel but the X-rays were clean. It prompted an angry response from owner Mike Repole. 'With all the diagnostics we have taken, the great vets we use, and the experience of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, we are baffled and confused by what criteria vets are using to determine who scratches, who doesn't and when … especially when every diagnostic tells us the horse is safe and sound,' Repole posted on X. Through the years, Repole has had three horses scratch from the Derby. Sovereignty, ridden by Junior Alvarado, center, crosses the finish line to win the Kentucky Derby. (Abbie Parr / Associated Press) The scratch of Rodriguez allowed Baeza, second in the Santa Anita Derby to Journalism, in the field. The horse came to Churchill Downs without a guaranteed spot in the race. Because the scratch came after the draw, Baeza had to start in the farthest outside post. Advertisement This year's Derby did not have the buzz of last year's, the 150th running of the race. And the wet weather also dampened the enthusiasm of some fans, many of whom moved to covered areas. Plastic ponchos were the favored attire on the day. Derby Day has the best undercard of any day exclusive of the Breeders' Cup. Among the highlights: Mindframe ($9.08 to win) won the $1 million Churchill Downs Stakes, a seven furlong race. It marked the return of Nysos, who hadn't raced in 15 months. He was Baffert's 'A' horse for last year's Derby until he was injured. He hasn't raced list the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Nysos and Banishing finished in a dead heat for second. There were four horses across the finish line within a length of each other. Macho Music ($29.86) pulled an upset in winning the $600,000 Pat Day Mile. Normally when a 13-1 goes to the lead early, they back up at the end. But not Macho Music. Baffert finished second and third with Madaket Road and Gaming. 'I thought the winner was going to come back a little bit but he never did,' said Irad Ortiz Jr., Madaket Road's jockey. Madaket Road had enough points to qualify for the Derby but Baffert thought the distance of the Derby might have been too much. Trainer Richard Mandella doesn't ship often to Churchill Downs, but when he does he means business. He proved it again when Kopion ($7.48) won the $1 million Derby City Distaff. Kopion is a daughter of Omaha Beach, who Mandella brought to the Derby as the favorite in 2019. The horse had to scratch. Baffert's Hope Road finished second making it a Southern California exacta. Get the best, most interesting and strangest stories of the day from the L.A. sports scene and beyond from our newsletter The Sports Report. This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
Los Angeles Times
03-05-2025
- Sport
- Los Angeles Times
Sovereignty surges pass race favorite Journalism to win the 151st Kentucky Derby
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Bill Mott is in the Hall of Fame. He won the Kentucky Derby in 2019, but it was by disqualification. The trainer never got to see his horse cross the finish line first. Until now. In an exciting stretch run Sovereignty and Journalism battled until the final strides when Sovereignty pulled ahead to win the 151st Kentucky Derby by 1½ lengths Saturday. Sovereignty came to this spot by finishing second in the Florida Derby. But this time he had to navigate the 19-horse field to win on a cold and drizzly day before 147,406 at Churchill Downs. Journalism, the 7-2 favorite, got crowded and shuffled back at the start of the race but going around the far turn, jockey Umberto Rispoli got him to start picking off horses. Sovereignty was following right behind him. When the horses hit the top of the stretch, it was clear it was down to the two horses. The start of the race was very crowded on the inside. Citizen Bull, the 2-year-old Eclipse champion, went into the lead and moved toward the center of the track. The first half mile of the 1 ¼-mile race was run in a fast but not brutal 46.23 seconds. By the end, all that was left were the closers as most of the early speed faded out. Baeza, who entered the race on Thursday after Rodriguez scratched out, finished a strong third. The rest of the field, in order was Final Gambit, Owen Almighty, Burnham Square, Sandman, East Avenue, Chunk of Gold, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Luxor Café, Neoequos, Publisher, Citizen Bull, American Promise, Render Judgment, Flying Mohawk and Admire Daytona. Sovereignty paid $17.96 to win. 'He made up a lot of ground in a hurry,' Mott said. 'This one got here the right way. I mean, he's done well, he's a great horse. He comes to us from a great organization (Godolphin) and I can't say enough about the horse and the organization that started him out and did everything to make this happen.' The winning rider was Junior Alvarado. It was his first Kentucky Derby win. This marked the return of Baffert to Churchill Downs after the track banned him from racing for three years. The move was made after Medina Spirit tested positive for a legal medication, but not legal on race day. It led to a series of court fights in which Churchill Downs prevailed. Baffert brought two horses to run in the Derby, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez. However, Rodriguez was scratched Thursday when he had sensitivity in one of his hooves. The injury was not considered serious and he is now pointed to run in the Preakness Stakes in two weeks. Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial a month ago at Aqueduct. Second in that race was Grande, who scratched Friday morning. The horse had been battling a slightly cracked heel but the X-rays were clean. It prompted an angry response from owner Mike Repole. 'With all the diagnostics we have taken, the great vets we use, and the experience of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, we are baffled and confused by what criteria vets are using to determine who scratches, who doesn't and when … especially when every diagnostic tells us the horse is safe and sound,' Repole posted on X. Through the years, Repole has had three horses scratch from the Derby. The scratch of Rodriguez allowed Baeza, second in the Santa Anita Derby to Journalism, in the field. The horse came to Churchill Downs without a guaranteed spot in the race. Because the scratch came after the draw, Baeza had to start in the farthest outside post. This year's Derby did not have the buzz of last year's, the 150th running of the race. And the wet weather also dampened the enthusiasm of some fans, many of whom moved to covered areas. Plastic ponchos were the favored attire on the day. Derby Day has the best undercard of any day exclusive of the Breeders' Cup. Among the highlights:
USA Today
03-05-2025
- Business
- USA Today
Kentucky Derby 2025 purse, payout: How much money did winner Sovereignty take home?
Kentucky Derby 2025 purse, payout: How much money did winner Sovereignty take home? Show Caption Hide Caption Kentucky Derby 2025: Baffert's return, and Journalism is the horse to watch Previewing the 151st Kentucky Derby, focusing on Journalism's chances and Bob Baffert's return. Editor's note: Get all of the highlights and results from the 2025 Kentucky Derby here. Another Kentucky Derby is in the books, and Sovereignty has emerged as the winner of the 151st running of horse racing's first Triple Crown race. The financial benefits of this will be wide-ranging, both immediately because of a record purse at this year's Run for the Roses and long-term thanks to the stud fees he will command moving forward. This year, the Kentucky Derby purse that will be doled out among owners, breeders, trainers and jockeys will total $5 million for the second-straight year. Sovereignty is set to earn more than $3 million for winning the race. The other top five finishers also receive a share of the prize money. Churchill Downs officials increased the purse in 2024 from $3 million to a record $5 million. Here is a breakdown of the 2025 Kentucky Derby purse and how much prize money each horse earned at Churchill Downs Saturday, including the winner's prize: The Kentucky Derby is considered the most lucrative horse race in the United States, and the 151st edition will once again see a $5 million purse available at Churchill Downs. Last year's winner, Mystik Dan, brought home a $3.1 million prize (with 10% of that going to winning jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.), while runner-up Sierra Leone got a $1 million consolation prize. Here's the prize money breakdown for the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Winner - Sovereignty: $3.1 million 2nd place - Journalism: $1 million 3rd place - Baeza: $500,000 4th place - Final Gambit: $250,000 5th place: $150,000 The USA TODAY app gets you to the heart of the news — fast. Download for award-winning coverage, crosswords, audio storytelling, the eNewspaper and more.
