Latest news with #FirasMaksad
New York Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Live Updates: Iranian Missiles Hit Multiple Sites in Tel Aviv
The Abqaiq oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia, after it was damaged in an attack from Iran in 2019. In September 2019, a barrage of drones and cruise missiles slammed into two Saudi oil facilities near the Persian Gulf, including one of the largest in the world, igniting small fires that briefly interrupted production. The projectiles were later traced to Iran, and despite its stringent denials, the desire to avoid a repeat of the incident prompted a new and sustained effort by Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf States to use détente and diplomacy toward the Islamic Republic to de-escalate regional tensions. That effort is being put to the test as never before on Friday amid waves of Israeli attacks on Iran aimed at destroying key facilities and decapitating the military and civilian leadership running its nuclear programs. 'I think the tension is palpable and everybody is concerned about possible blowback,' said Firas Maksad, the managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk analysis organization. 'This is a moment of great uncertainty throughout the region. It is the big war the region has been both fearing and anticipating for years.' The Gulf Arab states, and indeed much of the Arab world, were quick to issue robust condemnations of the Israeli attacks like this one from Riyadh: 'The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expresses its strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Israeli aggression against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran, which undermine its sovereignty and security and constitute a clear violation of international laws and norms.' The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, and several others from the region called their Iranian counterpart to repeat the condemnation. With the Arab world already inflamed by the Gaza conflict, a related war in Lebanon, a long-running civil war in Yemen and Syria barely staggering to its feet after 14 years of violence and civil war, there was also frustration that attempts at de-escalation had failed. It was tensions over Yemen that had prompted the 2019 attack against Saudi Arabia. 'We are frustrated and fatigued,' said Bader al-Saif, a professor of history at Kuwait University. 'The region has been doing its best for the past few years to come to terms with everyone, including Israel,' he added. 'But Israel is trying to reset the region to their own tune and they are trying to do this violently.' The United States was considered part of the problem. Although President Trump kept a certain distance from the prospect of conflict between the Middle East's two most powerful militaries, and had been trying to negotiate a new deal to defuse Iran's nuclear program, he had not blocked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel from launching the attack. 'After the triumphant Trump visit to the Gulf and serious mediation efforts, there will also be some frustration that Trump has proved unwilling or unable to restrain Netanyahu,' said Dr. Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, a London-based research institute. Part of the equation is that the region depends heavily on American military power for its defense, with U.S. forces deployed at air bases in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as well as a major naval base on Bahrain, along with troops scattered across Iraq and northeastern Syria. While the Gulf bases were established in recent decades not least as a deterrent for Iran, there was fear that Tehran might miscalculate by targeting them, widening the conflict by drawing in the United States. Gulf countries have all committed billions of dollars to major, futuristic development projects meant to wean their economies off oil, so a major war would also jeopardize those plans. The attacks by Israel against Iran immediately threatened the region's economy, with airlines canceling countless flights for the foreseeable future. Israel, Iran, Iraq and Jordan all closed their airspace. Countries like Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt that depend heavily on tourist dollars had been hoping for a revival. Jordan said it was shooting down Iranian projectiles that violated its airspace, but underscored that it was protecting itself and not joining the war. Syria was considered completely out of this conflict. Of course, Arab states had been worried about Iran's acquiring nuclear weapons as well, even if there was some sense that Israel had exaggerated the threat. Crippling the Iranian nuclear program would provoke some satisfaction, analysts said, but it seemed an enormous gamble. 'If Israel and or the United States can finish off the threat to the Gulf countries via military means, I don't think that Arab leaders will be shedding tears,' Mr. Maksad said. 'The great concern is a job half-done that then leaves them wide open to retaliation and undermines their national development projects in the process.' Two rounds of tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran last year ended fairly quickly, but there was anxiety that this new one could escalate. That increased the potential for unforeseen consequences. 'For the Iranians, this will require a different kind of response, more sustained and more hurtful,' said Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. For the moment Iran's beleaguered proxy forces, including Hezbollah, did not react beyond verbal condemnations. Worst-case scenarios include the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for Persian Gulf oil exports. Since Iran depends on that flow as well, even as it is limited at the moment due to sanctions, that is seen as a possible last desperate step. 'If this continues, we are going into unchartered terrain,' Dr. al-Saif said. Ismaeel Naar contributed reporting.
New York Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Live Updates: Iranian Missiles Hit Multiple Sites in Tel Aviv, Injuring at Least 22
The Abqaiq oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia, after it was damaged in an attack from Iran in 2019. In September 2019, a barrage of drones and cruise missiles slammed into two Saudi oil facilities near the Persian Gulf, including one of the largest in the world, igniting small fires that briefly interrupted production. The projectiles were later traced to Iran, and despite its stringent denials, the desire to avoid a repeat of the incident prompted a new and sustained effort by Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf States to use détente and diplomacy toward the Islamic Republic to de-escalate regional tensions. That effort is being put to the test as never before on Friday amid waves of Israeli attacks on Iran aimed at destroying key facilities and decapitating the military and civilian leadership running its nuclear programs. 'I think the tension is palpable and everybody is concerned about possible blowback,' said Firas Maksad, the managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk analysis organization. 'This is a moment of great uncertainty throughout the region. It is the big war the region has been both fearing and anticipating for years.' The Gulf Arab states, and indeed much of the Arab world, were quick to issue robust condemnations of the Israeli attacks like this one from Riyadh: 'The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expresses its strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Israeli aggression against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran, which undermine its sovereignty and security and constitute a clear violation of international laws and norms.' The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, and several others from the region called their Iranian counterpart to repeat the condemnation. With the Arab world already inflamed by the Gaza conflict, a related war in Lebanon, a long-running civil war in Yemen and Syria barely staggering to its feet after 14 years of violence and civil war, there was also frustration that attempts at de-escalation had failed. It was tensions over Yemen that had prompted the 2019 attack against Saudi Arabia. 'We are frustrated and fatigued,' said Bader al-Saif, a professor of history at Kuwait University. 'The region has been doing its best for the past few years to come to terms with everyone, including Israel,' he added. 'But Israel is trying to reset the region to their own tune and they are trying to do this violently.' The United States was considered part of the problem. Although President Trump kept a certain distance from the prospect of conflict between the Middle East's two most powerful militaries, and had been trying to negotiate a new deal to defuse Iran's nuclear program, he had not blocked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel from launching the attack. 'After the triumphant Trump visit to the Gulf and serious mediation efforts, there will also be some frustration that Trump has proved unwilling or unable to restrain Netanyahu,' said Dr. Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, a London-based research institute. Part of the equation is that the region depends heavily on American military power for its defense, with U.S. forces deployed at air bases in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as well as a major naval base on Bahrain, along with troops scattered across Iraq and northeastern Syria. While the Gulf bases were established in recent decades not least as a deterrent for Iran, there was fear that Tehran might miscalculate by targeting them, widening the conflict by drawing in the United States. Gulf countries have all committed billions of dollars to major, futuristic development projects meant to wean their economies off oil, so a major war would also jeopardize those plans. The attacks by Israel against Iran immediately threatened the region's economy, with airlines canceling countless flights for the foreseeable future. Israel, Iran, Iraq and Jordan all closed their airspace. Countries like Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt that depend heavily on tourist dollars had been hoping for a revival. Jordan said it was shooting down Iranian projectiles that violated its airspace, but underscored that it was protecting itself and not joining the war. Syria was considered completely out of this conflict. Of course, Arab states had been worried about Iran's acquiring nuclear weapons as well, even if there was some sense that Israel had exaggerated the threat. Crippling the Iranian nuclear program would provoke some satisfaction, analysts said, but it seemed an enormous gamble. 'If Israel and or the United States can finish off the threat to the Gulf countries via military means, I don't think that Arab leaders will be shedding tears,' Mr. Maksad said. 'The great concern is a job half-done that then leaves them wide open to retaliation and undermines their national development projects in the process.' Two rounds of tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran last year ended fairly quickly, but there was anxiety that this new one could escalate. That increased the potential for unforeseen consequences. 'For the Iranians, this will require a different kind of response, more sustained and more hurtful,' said Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. For the moment Iran's beleaguered proxy forces, including Hezbollah, did not react beyond verbal condemnations. Worst-case scenarios include the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for Persian Gulf oil exports. Since Iran depends on that flow as well, even as it is limited at the moment due to sanctions, that is seen as a possible last desperate step. 'If this continues, we are going into unchartered terrain,' Dr. al-Saif said. Ismaeel Naar contributed reporting.
New York Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Live Updates: Iran Reels From Israeli Strikes on Nuclear Sites and Top Officials
The Abqaiq oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia, after it was damaged in an attack from Iran in 2019. In September 2019, a barrage of drones and cruise missiles slammed into two Saudi oil facilities near the Persian Gulf, including one of the largest in the world, igniting small fires that briefly interrupted production. The projectiles were later traced to Iran, and despite its stringent denials, the desire to avoid a repeat of the incident prompted a new and sustained effort by Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf States to use détente and diplomacy toward the Islamic Republic to de-escalate regional tensions. That effort is being put to the test as never before on Friday amid waves of Israeli attacks on Iran aimed at destroying key facilities and decapitating the military and civilian leadership running its nuclear programs. 'I think the tension is palpable and everybody is concerned about possible blowback,' said Firas Maksad, the managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk analysis organization. 'This is a moment of great uncertainty throughout the region. It is the big war the region has been both fearing and anticipating for years.' The Gulf Arab states, and indeed much of the Arab world, were quick to issue robust condemnations of the Israeli attacks like this one from Riyadh: 'The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expresses its strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Israeli aggression against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran, which undermine its sovereignty and security and constitute a clear violation of international laws and norms.' The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, and several others from the region called their Iranian counterpart to repeat the condemnation. With the Arab world already inflamed by the Gaza conflict, a related war in Lebanon, a long-running civil war in Yemen and Syria barely staggering to its feet after 14 years of violence and civil war, there was also frustration that attempts at de-escalation had failed. It was tensions over Yemen that had prompted the 2019 attack against Saudi Arabia. 'We are frustrated and fatigued,' said Bader al-Saif, a professor of history at Kuwait University. 'The region has been doing its best for the past few years to come to terms with everyone, including Israel,' he added. 'But Israel is trying to reset the region to their own tune and they are trying to do this violently.' The United States was considered part of the problem. Although President Trump kept a certain distance from the prospect of conflict between the Middle East's two most powerful militaries, and had been trying to negotiate a new deal to defuse Iran's nuclear program, he had not blocked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel from launching the attack. 'After the triumphant Trump visit to the Gulf and serious mediation efforts, there will also be some frustration that Trump has proved unwilling or unable to restrain Netanyahu,' said Dr. Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, a London-based research institute. Part of the equation is that the region depends heavily on American military power for its defense, with U.S. forces deployed at air bases in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as well as a major naval base on Bahrain, along with troops scattered across Iraq and northeastern Syria. While the Gulf bases were established in recent decades not least as a deterrent for Iran, there was fear that Tehran night miscalculate by targeting them, widening the conflict by drawing in the United States. Gulf countries have all committed billions of dollars to major, futuristic development projects meant to wean their economies off oil, so a major war would also jeopardize those plans. The attacks by Israel against Iran immediately threatened the region's economy, with airlines canceling countless flights for the foreseeable future. Israel, Iran, Iraq and Jordan all closed their airspace. Countries like Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt that depend heavily on tourist dollars had been hoping for a revival. Jordan said it was shooting down Iranian projectiles that violated its airspace, but underscored that it was protecting itself and not joining the war. Syria was considered completely out of this conflict. Of course, Arab states had been worried about Iran's acquiring nuclear weapons as well, even if there was some sense that Israel had exaggerated the threat. Crippling the Iranian nuclear program would provoke some satisfaction, analysts said, but it seemed an enormous gamble. 'If Israel and or the United States can finish off the threat to the Gulf countries via military means, I don't think that Arab leaders will be shedding tears,' Mr. Maksad said. 'The great concern is a job half-done that then leaves them wide open to retaliation and undermines their national development projects in the process.' Two rounds of tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran last year ended fairly quickly, but there was anxiety that this new one could escalate. That increased the potential for unforeseen consequences. 'For the Iranians, this will require a different kind of response, more sustained and more hurtful,' said Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. For the moment Iran's beleaguered proxy forces, including Hezbollah, did not react beyond verbal condemnations. Worst-case scenarios include the closure of the Straights of Hormuz, a choke point for Persian Gulf oil exports. Since Iran depends on that flow as well, even as it is limited at the moment due to sanctions, that is seen as a possible last desperate step. 'If this continues, we are going into unchartered terrain,' Dr. al-Saif said. Ismaeel Naar contributed reporting.
New York Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Mideast Tense as Long Anticipated Israel-Iran Conflict Sinks Hopes for Détente
In September 2019, a barrage of drones and cruise missiles slammed into two Saudi oil facilities near the Persian Gulf, including one of the largest in the world, igniting small fires that briefly interrupted production. The projectiles were later traced to Iran, and despite its stringent denials, the desire to avoid a repeat of the incident prompted a new and sustained effort by Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf States to use détente and diplomacy toward the Islamic Republic to de-escalate regional tensions. That effort is being put to the test as never before on Friday amid waves of Israeli attacks on Iran aimed at destroying key facilities and decapitating the military and civilian leadership running its nuclear programs. 'I think the tension is palpable and everybody is concerned about possible blowback,' said Firas Maksad, the managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk analysis organization. 'This is a moment of great uncertainty throughout the region. It is the big war the region has been both fearing and anticipating for years.' The Gulf Arab states, and indeed much of the Arab world, were quick to issue robust condemnations of the Israeli attacks like this one from Riyadh: 'The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expresses its strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Israeli aggression against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran, which undermine its sovereignty and security and constitute a clear violation of international laws and norms.' The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, and several others from the region called their Iranian counterpart to repeat the condemnation. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
CNN
11-05-2025
- Business
- CNN
Trump is visiting three of the world's richest nations. Here's what's on their wish list
Three energy-rich Gulf Arab nations are racing to turn their influence over Donald Trump into tangible gains with the president set to visit next week. They have built personal ties with the president and collectively pledged trillions in US investments while casting themselves as key intermediaries in conflicts Trump wants to resolve, from Gaza to Ukraine and Iran. Now, they're being rewarded with the privilege of hosting Trump's first state visit of his second term. The US president is set to land in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, followed by visits to Qatar and then the United Arab Emirates that stretch till May 16. Given Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy, the three states have much to offer Ahead of Donald Trump's visit to the Middle East, analyst Firas Maksad looks at the what the U.S. president may accomplish on his trip, and tells Becky Anderson why he thinks the prospect of Saudi-Israeli normalization is dead. 'In Trump's book, the Gulf states tick all the right boxes,' Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, told CNN. They 'pledge to invest trillions in the US economy and spend colossal amounts on US weapons systems,' he said. Behind this carefully crafted strategy of wooing Trump is a desire from Gulf states to solidify and formalize their positions as the US' indispensable security and economic partners, and extract as much benefit for themselves as they can. US-Gulf relations have improved significantly since Trump returned to office. Frustrated at the perceived lack of US interest in their needs under the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had sought to diversify their military, technological and economic ties. With Trump in office, they see what one Gulf official called 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity' for to achieve his country's objectives. From their perspective, now is the time to cement ties with Washington, and even 'secure greater privileges in their relationship with the world's most powerful nation,' Ebtesam AlKetbi, founder and president of the Emirates Policy Center think tank in Abu Dhabi, said. Each of the three nations Trump is visiting has its own list of priorities. Here's what they want from the US and how they're going about achieving it. 'Security, security and security' is what Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states seek most from Trump's visit, said Ali Shihabi, an author and commentator on politics and economics of Saudi Arabia. 'Gulf States are looking for reassurance of the US security commitment to the Gulf's stability,' Shihabi told CNN. 'Trump has many priorities and has been known to lose interest quickly… and they want to keep him engaged.' Last year, the US and Saudi Arabia came close to finalizing a landmark defense and trade pact – but the deal stalled over Saudi insistence that Israel commit to a path toward Palestinian statehood. Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, told CNN's Becky Anderson that Trump is likely to move ahead with major deals regardless of normalization, which he said is 'dead.' Riyadh is also seeking US cooperation to develop a civil nuclear program, but that has been held over its insistence on enriching uranium domestically – raising concerns in the US and Israel over nuclear weapons proliferation. Uranium, when enriched to high levels, can be used to produce nuclear weapons. White House backing for a Saudi nuclear program could see American firms win lucrative contracts. Riyadh appears to be framing its relationship with the US as a win-win. In March, Trump said he'd go to Saudi Arabia if it invests $1 trillion in the US. 'They've agreed to do that, so I'm going to be going there,' he said. While Saudi Arabia didn't confirm that figure, it announced plans in January to expand trade and investment with the US by $600 billion over four years, with potential for more. But for Riyadh to diversify away from oil, it still needs to sell oil – at a healthy profit – to fund that transition. Recent price drops, driven in part by Trump's tariffs, threaten to undermine those ambitions. Trump has made clear he wants oil prices lower, putting him at odds with Saudi Arabia's need for high revenues to finance its economic transformation. Perhaps more than any other Gulf state, the UAE sees investment as central to its strategy for deepening ties with the US and securing returns – and it has money to back it up. Among the world's richest countries per capita, it has pledged trillions in US investments. Abu Dhabi has even branded itself 'the capital of capital.' 'Expanding trade and investment is a way to reinforce this strategic partnership,' AlKetbi said. 'The US remains a critical security guarantor for the Gulf region, while also offering a dynamic economy full of opportunities and capabilities that align with the long-term Gulf development plans.' In March, the UAE announced a $1.4 trillion investment plan over 10 years focused on AI, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy. Its existing US investments already total $1 trillion, according to its embassy in Washington. 'The UAE sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to become a significant contributor in AI and advanced technology,' Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, told CNN. 'The commitment to invest $1.4 trillion… aligns with the UAE's goal to diversify its economy away from its over reliance on hydrocarbons to ensure prosperity for the country in the future.' But it won't be easy for Abu Dhabi to achieve its stated goal of becoming a global leader in AI by 2031 without US microchips. During the final days of former President Joe Biden's administration, the US tightened curbs on AI exports to keep advanced technology out of the hands of foreign adversaries like China, which were meant to take effect on May 15. The UAE has been one of the countries facing restrictions and may expect them to be lifted during Trump's trip. On Thursday, the US announced that Trump will rescind a set of the Biden-era curbs. Qatar is the Gulf Arab nation with the most formalized security ties with the US. It hosts the biggest US military installation in the Middle East, which the State Department describes as 'indispensable' for US military operations in the region. Last year, the US quietly reached an agreement that extends its military presence at the sprawling base in Qatar for another 10 years. It also amended a 1992 defense cooperation agreement with the US, which is meant to further strengthen their security partnership. In 2022, the Biden administration also designated Qatar as a Major Non-NATO Ally, a title granted to close friends that have strategic working relationships with the US military. Qatar has been a key mediator in a number of conflicts – from the war in Gaza to Afghanistan. Experts say it is part of an effort to remain relevant in the eyes of Washington. 'The Gulf states view conflict mediation as a source of influence and prestige,' Alhasan told CNN. 'They have managed to use their role as mediators to position themselves as indispensable partners for Trump's political agenda.' Doha also maintains close ties with Syria's new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has been on a quest to relieve his country of years-long sanctions by the West. Syria is expected to be a key issue that Qatar will raise with Trump when he visits, an official with knowledge of the matter told CNN Thursday. Doha is pushing the Trump administration to lift sanctions on Syria under the Caesar Act, the official said, adding that Qatar is wary about providing any financial support to Syria without Washington's blessing. Trump's visit is ultimately about what he can get out of the three Gulf states, experts said, adding that each of the three nations is anticipating a set of new deals that will benefit both parties. 'He's coming here because he believes it is in the interest of the US economy, perhaps his interest and those around him, to have those deals here with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar,' Maksad said. 'So expect big announcements.' CNN's Becky Anderson, Salma Arafa and Tala Alrajjal contributed reporting.
