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LeMonde
23-05-2025
- Politics
- LeMonde
Trump's Gulf outreach sidelines Israel's influence in the Middle East
Benjamin Netanyahu appeared distinctly isolated during Donald Trump's tour of the Gulf from May 13 to 16. When the Republican returned to the White House, the Israeli prime minister had pictured himself leading a regional transformation – a new Middle East rid of the threat of Iran and its proxies – through force, continuing the war he has waged in the Gaza Strip since October 2023. Instead, he had to acknowledge the growing rift with the American president, who now saw himself as a "peacemaker" and "unifier" in the region, and who had made a deal with Iran the linchpin of his vision for regional peace. During his visit to Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi, Trump displayed unity with the Gulf monarchs, who themselves were betting on a détente with Iran and economic development to bring peace and stability to the Middle East. Elevated to privileged partners by the Republican president, the Gulf's Sunni leaders – along with Turkey – were entrusted with a leading role in the new regional architecture. In contrast, Israel, stuck in its extremist position, lost influence on regional issues, except for the Palestinian issue, where the Trump administration still gave it free rein. "The triumphant speeches from Netanyahu's government after Trump announced a plan to relocate Gazans out of the enclave, in February, have given way to a sense of panic on several issues where Saudi Arabia's influence is growing," explained Laure Foucher, Middle East expert at the Foundation for Strategic Research. In recent weeks, Netanyahu has been blindsided by Trump's decisions, which, done without consulting him and against his advice, have included launching nuclear talks with Iran, negotiating directly with Hamas for the release of Israeli-American hostages, securing a ceasefire with the Yemeni Houthis and lifting US sanctions on Syria.
NDTV
30-04-2025
- Business
- NDTV
If US Pulls Out Support To Ukraine, Can Europe Help Kyiv Fight On?
London: President Donald Trump is pushing Ukraine to cede territory to Russia to end the war, threatening to walk away if a deal becomes too difficult - and causing alarm bells in Europe about how to fill the gap. Ukraine's European allies view the war as fundamental to the continent's security, and pressure is now mounting to find ways to support Kyiv militarily - regardless of whether Trump pulls out. Trump has repeatedly lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusing him of prolonging the "killing field" by pushing back on his demand that Ukraine hand over occupied Crimea to Moscow. Trump's land-for-peace plan would mark a significant shift in the post-World War II order, ripping up conventions that have long held that borders should not be redrawn by force. "It took a World War to roll back de jure annexations and 60 million people died," said Francois Heisbourg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, referring to the pre-war annexation of Austria by Nazi Germany. "Europeans will not accept it" and Ukraine will not either, he said. Can Ukraine fight without US support? Diplomats and experts described various scenarios if the US decides to walk. They range from the US ceasing direct aid to Ukraine - but allowing European nations to pass on critical American intelligence and weapons to Kyiv - to Trump banning transfers of any American technology, including components or software in European weapons. Any withdrawal of US military aid to Ukraine could create serious difficulties for Europe, analysts and diplomats told The Associated Press. Kyiv's ability to keep fighting would depend on European political will to muster money and weapons - and how quickly the gaps left by Washington can be filled. If it were easy, Europe would "already be doing things without America," said a European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. Where would the money come from? No new US aid package for Ukraine has been approved since Trump came into office, even as European nations have collectively provided Ukraine with more aid than Washington, according to the Keil Institute. Europe has contributed around $157 billion, some $26 billion more than the US, although Washington slightly outpaces Europe when it comes to military aid, the Germany-based institute said. It will be hard, but there are ways Europe can find cash to fund Ukraine - including seizing frozen Russian assets - but "money isn't what you shoot bullets with," Heisbourg said. Europe's "big mistake" was undertaking major military downsizing following the Cold War and thinking "this war started in February 2022 and not in February 2014," when Moscow invaded and then annexed Crimea, said Thomas Gomart, director of IFRI, a French international affairs think tank. Europeans are scrambling to acquire weapons for themselves and for Ukraine, while confronting constraints on production capacity, a fragmented defense industry and a decades-long reliance on the US Some extra production capacity could come from Ukraine, which has ramped up manufacturing of ammunition and drones since Russia's invasion. Much harder to replace, experts said, are advanced American weapons, including air defenses. Can US weapons systems be replaced? Russia has attacked Ukraine almost nightly since Putin's forces invaded in February 2022, flooding the skies with missiles and drones, including dummy attack drones to exhaust Ukraine's limited air defenses. In April, at least 57 people were killed in multiple strikes. The deaths from the Russian attacks would "inevitably" be higher without the American Patriot air-defense missile systems protecting Ukraine's skies, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The Patriots can track and intercept Russian missiles, including the hypersonic Kinzhal, which Putin has boasted was unstoppable. Kyiv uses them to protect critical infrastructure, including the country's energy grid. Earlier this month, Zelenskyy asked to buy 10 Patriots, a request Trump dismissed. "You don't start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles," he said, a day after a Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy killed 35 people. France and Italy have given Ukraine their Aster SAMP/T air-defense system but the issue is not "quality, it's quantity," Barrie said, pointing to the larger US defense industrial base and greater US stockpiles. Although Trump criticized Putin over the weekend for his missile strikes and suggested imposing more sanctions on Russia, for Europe it remains a wait-and-see game. The whiplash of Trump's aggressive foreign policy means nothing is off the cards, experts said. A worst-case scenario could see a ban on American weapons exports and transfers to Ukraine, which would bar European nations from buying US weapons to give to Kyiv or transferring weapons with American components or software, Barrie said. That could mean countries, including Germany, that have already given American Patriots to Ukraine would be prohibited from doing so. Such a move would seriously hamper Europe's ability to support Kyiv and mark a fundamental shift in America's relationship with its allies. "It's one thing for the US to cease to be an ally, it is another for the US to be an enemy," Heisbourg said, noting that such a step could also damage the US defense sector if weapons purchases were perceived to be unusable on Trump's political order. Filling the gap on intelligence sharing In March, the Trump administration suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine in a bid to force Zelenskyy to accept a truce with Russia. The about weeklong suspension impacted Ukraine's ability to track and target Russian troops, tanks and ships. There are certain capabilities, including "higher-end" surveillance and reconnaissance using satellites that "only the United States can provide," said Matthew Kroenig, vice president of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security in Washington. While the extent of intelligence sharing between the US and Ukraine is not known, experts said it likely shows Kyiv near real-time buildup of Russian troop deployments and helps target long-range strikes. Ukraine's allies do not have as much satellite capability as the US but could launch more, or Ukraine could use commercial systems if Trump cuts off intelligence again, experts said. The latter would likely have to come from a European provider - in March, the American satellite imagery company Maxar Technologies confirmed it temporarily suspended access to unclassified satellite images following the administration's decision to pull intelligence sharing. Ukraine also needs an alternative to Elon Musk's satellite network Starlink, which is critical for Ukrainian defensive and civilian communications. European defense companies are discussing creating a satellite alliance but don't currently have an alternative on the same scale. Would Ukraine collapse without US support? If Trump walks away, or if Kyiv rejects a deal and keeps fighting with European support, it won't necessarily mean "the collapse of Ukraine" although more people will almost certainly die if the US pulls its air defenses and intelligence-sharing capabilities, Heisbourg said. Trump has jolted European leaders into awareness that they need to take responsibility for their own defense, regardless of who occupies the White House, experts said. That means European nations need to invest more in defense, work together to scale up military production and build trust to share intelligence. "This issue is not a question about the next two months or the next two years. This issue is about the next two decades," Gomart said.
The Hindu
30-04-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
The clock is ticking for Europe amid doubts about U.S. support for Ukraine
President Donald Trump is pushing Ukraine to cede territory to Russia to end the war, threatening to walk away if a deal becomes too difficult — and causing alarm bells in Europe about how to fill the gap. Ukraine's European allies view the war as fundamental to the continent's security, and pressure is now mounting to find ways to support Kyiv militarily — regardless of whether Mr. Trump pulls out. Mr. Trump has repeatedly lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusing him of prolonging the 'killing field' by pushing back on his demand that Ukraine hand over occupied Crimea to Moscow. Mr. Trump's land-for-peace plan would mark a significant shift in the post-Second World War order, ripping up conventions that have long held that borders should not be redrawn by force. 'It took a World War to roll back de jure annexations and 60 million people died,' said François Heisbourg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, referring to the pre-war annexation of Austria by Nazi Germany. 'Europeans will not accept it' and Ukraine will not either, he said. Diplomats and experts described various scenarios if the U.S. decides to walk. They range from the U.S. ceasing direct aid to Ukraine — but allowing European nations to pass on critical American intelligence and weapons to Kyiv — to Mr. Trump banning transfers of any American technology, including components or software in European weapons. Money and weapons Any withdrawal of U.S. military aid to Ukraine could create serious difficulties for Europe, analysts and diplomats say. Kyiv's ability to keep fighting would depend on European political will to muster money and weapons — and how quickly the gaps left by Washington can be filled. If it were easy, Europe would 'already be doing things without America,' said a European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. No new U.S. aid package for Ukraine has been approved since Mr. Trump came into office, even as European nations have collectively provided Ukraine with more aid than Washington, according to the Keil Institute. Europe has contributed around $157 billion, some $26 billion more than the U.S., although Washington slightly outpaces Europe when it comes to military aid, the Germany-based institute said. It will be hard, but there are ways Europe can find cash to fund Ukraine — including seizing frozen Russian assets — but 'money isn't what you shoot bullets with,' Mr. Heisbourg said. Europe's 'big mistake' was undertaking major military downsizing following the Cold War and thinking 'this war started in February 2022 and not in February 2014,' when Moscow invaded and then annexed Crimea, said Thomas Gomart, director of IFRI, a French international affairs think tank. Europeans are scrambling to acquire weapons for themselves and for Ukraine, while confronting constraints on production capacity, a fragmented defence industry and a decades-long reliance on the U.S. Some extra production capacity could come from Ukraine, which has ramped up manufacturing of ammunition and drones since Russia's invasion. Much harder to replace, experts said, are advanced American weapons, including air defences. Russia has attacked Ukraine almost nightly since Mr. Putin's forces invaded in February 2022, flooding the skies with missiles and drones, including dummy attack drones to exhaust Ukraine's limited air defences. In April, at least 57 people were killed in multiple strikes. The death toll from the Russian attacks would 'inevitably' be higher without the American Patriot air-defence missile systems protecting Ukraine's skies, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The Patriots can track and intercept Russian missiles, including the hypersonic Kinzhal. Kyiv uses them to protect critical infrastructure, including the country's energy grid. Earlier this month, Mr. Zelenskyy asked to buy 10 Patriots, a request Mr. Trump dismissed. 'You don't start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles,' he said, a day after a Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy killed 35 people. France and Italy have given Ukraine their Aster SAMP/T air-defence system but the issue is not 'quality, it's quantity,' Mr. Barrie said, pointing to the larger U.S. defense industrial base and greater U.S. stockpiles. Wait-and-see game Although Mr. Trump criticised Mr. Putin over the weekend for his missile strikes and suggested imposing more sanctions on Russia, for Europe it remains a wait-and-see game. A worst-case scenario could see a ban on American weapons exports and transfers to Ukraine, which would bar European nations from buying U.S. weapons to give to Kyiv or transferring weapons with American components or software, Mr. Barrie said. That could mean countries, including Germany, that have already given American Patriots to Ukraine would be prohibited from doing so. 'It's one thing for the U.S. to cease to be an ally, it is another for the U.S. to be an enemy,' Mr. Heisbourg said, noting that such a step could also damage the U.S. defence sector if weapons purchases were perceived to be unusable on Mr. Trump's political order.
29-04-2025
- Business
If Trump abandons Ukraine, can Europe help Kyiv fight on? The clock is ticking to answer that
LONDON -- President Donald Trump is pushing Ukraine to cede territory to Russia to end the war, threatening to walk away if a deal becomes too difficult — and causing alarm bells in Europe about how to fill the gap. Ukraine's European allies view the war as fundamental to the continent's security, and pressure is now mounting to find ways to support Kyiv militarily — regardless of whether Trump pulls out. Trump has repeatedly lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusing him of prolonging the 'killing field' by pushing back on his demand that Ukraine hand over occupied Crimea to Moscow. Trump's land-for-peace plan would mark a significant shift in the post-World War II order, ripping up conventions that have long held that borders should not be redrawn by force. 'It took a World War to roll back de jure annexations and 60 million people died,' said François Heisbourg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, referring to the pre-war annexation of Austria by Nazi Germany. 'Europeans will not accept it" and Ukraine will not either, he said. Diplomats and experts described various scenarios if the U.S. decides to walk. They range from the U.S. ceasing direct aid to Ukraine — but allowing European nations to pass on critical American intelligence and weapons to Kyiv — to Trump banning transfers of any American technology, including components or software in European weapons. Any withdrawal of U.S. military aid to Ukraine could create serious difficulties for Europe, analysts and diplomats told The Associated Press. Kyiv's ability to keep fighting would depend on European political will to muster money and weapons — and how quickly the gaps left by Washington can be filled. If it were easy, Europe would 'already be doing things without America,' said a European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. No new U.S. aid package for Ukraine has been approved since Trump came into office, even as European nations have collectively provided Ukraine with more aid than Washington, according to the Keil Institute. Europe has contributed around $157 billion, some $26 billion more than the U.S., although Washington slightly outpaces Europe when it comes to military aid, the Germany-based institute said. It will be hard, but there are ways Europe can find cash to fund Ukraine — including seizing frozen Russian assets — but 'money isn't what you shoot bullets with,' Heisbourg said. Europe's "big mistake" was undertaking major military downsizing following the Cold War and thinking 'this war started in February 2022 and not in February 2014,' when Moscow invaded and then annexed Crimea, said Thomas Gomart, director of IFRI, a French international affairs think tank. Europeans are scrambling to acquire weapons for themselves and for Ukraine, while confronting constraints on production capacity, a fragmented defense industry and a decades-long reliance on the U.S. Some extra production capacity could come from Ukraine, which has ramped up manufacturing of ammunition and drones since Russia's invasion. Much harder to replace, experts said, are advanced American weapons, including air defenses. Russia has attacked Ukraine almost nightly since Putin's forces invaded in February 2022, flooding the skies with missiles and drones, including dummy attack drones to exhaust Ukraine's limited air defenses. In April, at least 57 people were killed in multiple strikes. The death toll from the Russian attacks would 'inevitably' be higher without the American Patriot air-defense missile systems protecting Ukraine's skies, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The Patriots can track and intercept Russian missiles, including the hypersonic Kinzhal, which Putin has boasted was unstoppable. Kyiv uses them to protect critical infrastructure, including the country's energy grid. Earlier this month, Zelenskyy asked to buy 10 Patriots, a request Trump dismissed. 'You don't start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles," he said, a day after a Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy killed 35 people. France and Italy have given Ukraine their Aster SAMP/T air-defense system but the issue is not 'quality, it's quantity,' Barrie said, pointing to the larger U.S. defense industrial base and greater U.S. stockpiles. Although Trump criticized Putin over the weekend for his missile strikes and suggested imposing more sanctions on Russia, for Europe it remains a wait-and-see game. The whiplash of Trump's aggressive foreign policy means nothing is off the cards, experts said. A worst-case scenario could see a ban on American weapons exports and transfers to Ukraine, which would bar European nations from buying U.S. weapons to give to Kyiv or transferring weapons with American components or software, Barrie said. That could mean countries, including Germany, that have already given American Patriots to Ukraine would be prohibited from doing so. Such a move would seriously hamper Europe's ability to support Kyiv and mark a fundamental shift in America's relationship with its allies. 'It's one thing for the U.S. to cease to be an ally, it is another for the U.S. to be an enemy,' Heisbourg said, noting that such a step could also damage the U.S. defense sector if weapons purchases were perceived to be unusable on Trump's political order. In March, the Trump administration suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine in a bid to force Zelenskyy to accept a truce with Russia. The about weeklong suspension impacted Ukraine's ability to track and target Russian troops, tanks and ships. There are certain capabilities, including 'higher-end' surveillance and reconnaissance using satellites that 'only the United States can provide,' said Matthew Kroenig, vice president of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security in Washington. While the extent of intelligence sharing between the U.S. and Ukraine is not known, experts said it likely shows Kyiv near real-time buildup of Russian troop deployments and helps target long-range strikes. Ukraine's allies do not have as much satellite capability as the U.S. but could launch more, or Ukraine could use commercial systems if Trump cuts off intelligence again, experts said. The latter would likely have to come from a European provider — in March, the American satellite imagery company Maxar Technologies confirmed it temporarily suspended access to unclassified satellite images following the administration's decision to pull intelligence sharing. Ukraine also needs an alternative to Elon Musk's satellite network Starlink, which is critical for Ukrainian defensive and civilian communications. European defense companies are discussing creating a satellite alliance but don't currently have an alternative on the same scale. If Trump walks away, or if Kyiv rejects a deal and keeps fighting with European support, it won't necessarily mean "the collapse of Ukraine" although more people will almost certainly die if the U.S. pulls its air defenses and intelligence-sharing capabilities, Heisbourg said. Trump has jolted European leaders into awareness that they need to take responsibility for their own defense, regardless of who occupies the White House, experts said. That means European nations need to invest more in defense, work together to scale up military production and build trust to share intelligence.
29-04-2025
- Business
If Trump abandons Ukraine, can Europe help Kyiv fight on?
LONDON -- President Donald Trump is pushing Ukraine to cede territory to Russia to end the war, threatening to walk away if a deal becomes too difficult — and causing alarm bells in Europe about how to fill the gap. Ukraine's European allies view the war as fundamental to the continent's security, and pressure is now mounting to find ways to support Kyiv militarily — regardless of whether Trump pulls out. Trump has repeatedly lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusing him of prolonging the 'killing field' by pushing back on his demand that Ukraine hand over occupied Crimea to Moscow. Trump's land-for-peace plan would mark a significant shift in the post-World War II order, ripping up conventions that have long held that borders should not be redrawn by force. 'It took a World War to roll back de jure annexations and 60 million people died,' said François Heisbourg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, referring to the pre-war annexation of Austria by Nazi Germany. 'Europeans will not accept it" and Ukraine will not either, he said. Diplomats and experts described various scenarios if the U.S. decides to walk. They range from the U.S. ceasing direct aid to Ukraine — but allowing European nations to pass on critical American intelligence and weapons to Kyiv — to Trump banning transfers of any American technology, including components or software in European weapons. Any withdrawal of U.S. military aid to Ukraine could create serious difficulties for Europe, analysts and diplomats told The Associated Press. Kyiv's ability to keep fighting would depend on European political will to muster money and weapons — and how quickly the gaps left by Washington can be filled. If it were easy, Europe would 'already be doing things without America,' said a European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. No new U.S. aid package for Ukraine has been approved since Trump came into office, even as European nations have collectively provided Ukraine with more aid than Washington, according to the Keil Institute. Europe has contributed around $157 billion, some $26 billion more than the U.S., although Washington slightly outpaces Europe when it comes to military aid, the Germany-based institute said. It will be hard, but there are ways Europe can find cash to fund Ukraine — including seizing frozen Russian assets — but 'money isn't what you shoot bullets with,' Heisbourg said. Europe's "big mistake" was undertaking major military downsizing following the Cold War and thinking 'this war started in February 2022 and not in February 2014,' when Moscow invaded and then annexed Crimea, said Thomas Gomart, director of IFRI, a French international affairs think tank. Europeans are scrambling to acquire weapons for themselves and for Ukraine, while confronting constraints on production capacity, a fragmented defense industry and a decades-long reliance on the U.S. Some extra production capacity could come from Ukraine, which has ramped up manufacturing of ammunition and drones since Russia's invasion. Much harder to replace, experts said, are advanced American weapons, including air defenses. Russia has attacked Ukraine almost nightly since Putin's forces invaded in February 2022, flooding the skies with missiles and drones, including dummy attack drones to exhaust Ukraine's limited air defenses. In April, at least 57 people were killed in multiple strikes. The death toll from the Russian attacks would 'inevitably' be higher without the American Patriot air-defense missile systems protecting Ukraine's skies, said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The Patriots can track and intercept Russian missiles, including the hypersonic Kinzhal, which Putin has boasted was unstoppable. Kyiv uses them to protect critical infrastructure, including the country's energy grid. Earlier this month, Zelenskyy asked to buy 10 Patriots, a request Trump dismissed. 'You don't start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles," he said, a day after a Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy killed 35 people. France and Italy have given Ukraine their Aster SAMP/T air-defense system but the issue is not 'quality, it's quantity,' Barrie said, pointing to the larger U.S. defense industrial base and greater U.S. stockpiles. Although Trump criticized Putin over the weekend for his missile strikes and suggested imposing more sanctions on Russia, for Europe it remains a wait-and-see game. The whiplash of Trump's aggressive foreign policy means nothing is off the cards, experts said. A worst-case scenario could see a ban on American weapons exports and transfers to Ukraine, which would bar European nations from buying U.S. weapons to give to Kyiv or transferring weapons with American components or software, Barrie said. That could mean countries, including Germany, that have already given American Patriots to Ukraine would be prohibited from doing so. Such a move would seriously hamper Europe's ability to support Kyiv and mark a fundamental shift in America's relationship with its allies. 'It's one thing for the U.S. to cease to be an ally, it is another for the U.S. to be an enemy,' Heisbourg said, noting that such a step could also damage the U.S. defense sector if weapons purchases were perceived to be unusable on Trump's political order. In March, the Trump administration suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine in a bid to force Zelenskyy to accept a truce with Russia. The about weeklong suspension impacted Ukraine's ability to track and target Russian troops, tanks and ships. There are certain capabilities, including 'higher-end' surveillance and reconnaissance using satellites that 'only the United States can provide,' said Matthew Kroenig, vice president of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security in Washington. While the extent of intelligence sharing between the U.S. and Ukraine is not known, experts said it likely shows Kyiv near real-time buildup of Russian troop deployments and helps target long-range strikes. Ukraine's allies do not have as much satellite capability as the U.S. but could launch more, or Ukraine could use commercial systems if Trump cuts off intelligence again, experts said. The latter would likely have to come from a European provider — in March, the American satellite imagery company Maxar Technologies confirmed it temporarily suspended access to unclassified satellite images following the administration's decision to pull intelligence sharing. Ukraine also needs an alternative to Elon Musk's satellite network Starlink, which is critical for Ukrainian defensive and civilian communications. European defense companies are discussing creating a satellite alliance but don't currently have an alternative on the same scale. If Trump walks away, or if Kyiv rejects a deal and keeps fighting with European support, it won't necessarily mean "the collapse of Ukraine" although more people will almost certainly die if the U.S. pulls its air defenses and intelligence-sharing capabilities, Heisbourg said. Trump has jolted European leaders into awareness that they need to take responsibility for their own defense, regardless of who occupies the White House, experts said. That means European nations need to invest more in defense, work together to scale up military production and build trust to share intelligence. 'This issue is not a question about the next two months or the next two years. This issue is about the next two decades,' Gomart said.
