23-05-2025
Moderates promised to protect green credits. They folded.
Climate action advocates who banked on a group of moderate House Republicans to fight for lucrative renewable energy tax credits were sorely disappointed this week when those lawmakers opted not to hold the line in the GOP's party-line bill.
Now, those advocates and clean energy companies are gearing up for a fight in the Senate with a similar playbook — but there's no guarantee that it'll work this time either.
Defenders of the Democrats' 2022 climate law are hoping senators — operating in different political realities than House members — will soften the rapid phase-outs and strict new requirements for the tax incentives.
Advertisement
'We're going to urge our supporters in the Senate to make significant changes to this bill,' said Frank Macchiarola, vice president of the American Clean Power Association, a leading trade group. 'We're going to work with them to show the flaws in this legislation that the House passed.'
Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), co-chair of the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus, helped lead an effort to protect the tax credits. After initial legislation emerged, he and others called for 'thoughtful changes.' But the changes ended up being in the opposite direction.
As he left House Speaker Mike Johnson's office Wednesday night as the latest version of the bill was taking shape, Garbarino said he was 'not happy.' He ended up missing the vote but released a statement saying he would have been a 'yes.'
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) celebrating House passage of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' | Francis Chung/POLITICO
The tax, energy and national security package proposes some of the most significant changes to energy policy in years. Senators on Thursday were still digesting the late-stage changes to the megabill.
It would eliminate 'technology neutral' production and investment tax credits in 2028 for projects that have not started construction within 60 days of the law's enactment. There are big exceptions for nuclear power and biofuels — both sectors with long-running GOP support.
While the renewable energy credits have fueled projects in Republican districts and states across the country, conservative hardliners are hellbent on finding savings. President Donald Trump has been adamant that the 'Green New Scam,' as he calls it, be eliminated.
As such, the clean energy lobby has spent more than a year trying to cozy up to Republican lawmakers, contributing generously to their campaigns and targeting advertisements in red congressional districts.
But some observers stressed that the American Clean Power Association is still just a few years old, and that the groups, think tanks and nongovernmental organizations that helped pass the Inflation Reduction Act were ill-equipped to defend the climate law with Republicans and Trump officials.
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a former state utility regulator and informal adviser to the president, said on Thursday, 'The IRA to some people is Joe Biden,' Cramer said. 'But when I see IRA, I don't think Joe Biden.'
Still, he suggested the House may have found the right balance between climate law defenders and its foes. 'I think they did pretty well,' said Cramer.
Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), who founded the Conservative Climate Caucus in the House, said Thursday he wanted to take a closer look at the incentives for the GOP-favored nuclear industry and left the door open to more tweaks.
'I don't know where that lands,' he said of the final tax break language, stressing the importance of protecting business certainty. 'Many of these things are very important to President Trump's agenda, and included is that where is this power going to come from.'
'Screaming and hollering'
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has insisted his chamber would have a deliberative committee process to leave their imprint on the legislation. He told reporters Thursday that the Senate is 'going to write our own bill.'
While some observers assume the clean energy sections will be modified, many are skeptical it would be a complete overhaul. After all, the deal struck in the House had the Trump stamp of approval and worked to balance fiercely opposed factions.
'I think it looks like some screaming and hollering right until the last minute and suddenly there will be 50 votes,' Cramer said. 'And I would not expect anything less and would encourage it. And I don't think anyone should give up on their ambitions until they have to — until they're confronted with the binary moment.'
Moderates like Curtis and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) have expressed reservations about gutting the IRA, but neither specified Thursday what they would change in the clean energy tax provisions.
Tillis, a Finance Committee member, expressed concern about potentially 'devastating' businesses that have invested millions or billions of dollars, causing a 'chilling effect' throughout the economy, but he also stressed fiscal prudence.
'We need to get closer to deficit neutrality,' he said. 'And if you take a look at some of the production or investment tax credit policy, we need to look at it through a lense of a business person.'
Sen. Thom Tillis speaks with reporters as he arrives for a vote at the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 18. | Francis Chung/POLITICO
ACP will be among the groups trying hard to influence Republican senators in the coming weeks. The group, born out of the defunct American Wind Power Association, has been working for years to woo Republicans.
But Trump and his allies have been deeply hostile to renewables, particularly wind. Asked about lessons learned, Macchiarola suggested it was too soon for such reflection.
'We certainly don't do everything right all of the time,' he said. 'But we do have the right message. And we do have the right messengers. The message is that clean energy tax incentives have provided enormous benefits for this country, both its energy security and its economic vitality. The messengers are twofold: the men and women who work in this industry every day to keep the lights on and power our lives and the consumers.'
Macchiarola said the group's rough estimates were that the House bill would drive electricity bills up $400 per individual per year.
'We've put a lot of time and resources and our political capital as an industry into that message because it's so critically important,' he said.
ACP has donated considerably to Republicans in recent years, including to Garbarino, who emerged as one of the leading House moderates signaling his support for parts of the climate law.
A 40-year-old lawmaker from a blue state, Garbarino earned praise Thursday from Johnson for his help during days of negotiations. Aside from the energy credits, Garbarino worked to raise limits on state and local tax dedications.
'My great friend Andrew played an essential role in negotiations among Members, and is a primary reason we were able to secure the deals which allowed us to pass our nation-shaping legislation this morning,' Johnson said.
A statement from Garbarino said, 'I am proud to have been the leading voice on Long Island during negotiations on this key reconciliation bill. I fought to lift the cap on SALT and ensure hardworking Long Island families see the benefits of this important legislation.'
'Not a good look'
Lawmakers like Garbarino and Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) fired off letters and statements this year and last urging leaders to protect at least some climate law credits. It was akin to a soft red line. But they never publicly threatened to tank the bill to get their way.
Republican lobbyist Mike McKenna had nothing but contempt for Garbarino's efforts, saying the 'pro-IRA caucus started its work with that embarrassing, nonsensical letter and wrapped up by having its lead dog basically taking a pee while the vote was going on.'
'Not a good look,' he said.
In recent months, ACP and the Solar Energy Industries Association tried to influence dozens of Republicans with fly-in days, bringing executives from hundreds of companies to Capitol Hill to talk to lawmakers about new battery factories or manufacturing plants employing their constituents. SEIA even passed around 'American energy dominance' stickers, a clear nod to Trump.
But this week when ACP convened for its annual CleanPower conference in Phoenix, one attendee asked the chief advocacy officer on a panel why there weren't phone booths all around so people could call their representatives, according to one person in attendance granted anonymity to speak freely. When asked about this exchange later, an ACP spokesperson noted that everyone there had a cellphone.
Jeff Navin, founder of consulting firm Boundary Stone, worried the clean energy industry would make the same mistake again.
'Here we are, the day of the passage, and I'm hearing a lot of people saying they felt confident things would be OK because of the letter Republicans sent,' he said. 'They are now saying the exact same things in the Senate — that things are just automatically going to get better?'
Indeed, advocates and lobbyists say their messaging to lawmakers is unlikely to change in the Senate, even though their efforts in the House did not yield the results they had hoped for.
'This fight is far from over'
Renewable energy boosters say the Senate, where members represent broader constituencies, is a different ball game.
'The Senate traditionally is a place where cooler heads prevail,' said Zach Friedman, senior director for federal policy at the sustainability group Ceres. 'Being elected statewide and for six-year terms and larger staff, etc., senators look at this differently and we're going to be continuing to educate folks.'
House passage means advocates can focus their pitches to senators on the impacts that particular provisions could have on business interests or electricity rates in their states, rather than on broad demands and hypotheticals.
'You can talk about the specifics of a billion-dollar project, an energy infrastructure project, that produces affordable, reliable, homegrown energy, and [how] that won't happen' because of the phase-outs and restrictions that the House bill proposes, Friedman said.
The House's legislation 'is an effective way to freeze investment, and if folks want investment back home, then specific changes have to be made,' he said.
'This fight is far from over,' said Harry Godfrey, managing director at Advanced Energy United, a trade association. 'And while it might not be visible at the moment, I think that profound frustration will continue to play out as this bill moves forward.'
Reporters Timothy Cama and Nico Portoundo contributed.
