11-04-2025
Focus groups: Pennsylvania swing voters voice tariff confusion
Most Pennsylvania swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups stuck by President Trump through this week's drama over tariffs and the stock market, but say he must better explain his strategy and how long Americans should prepare for pain.
Why it matters: Just two of these 13 Biden-to-Trump voters said Trump has made a good case for tariffs since he returned to the White House; 11 said he hasn't articulated enough or that they aren't sure of the end game.
Many are prepared to put up with months of strain if it makes the country safer, brings jobs back to the U.S. or helps their long-term finances — but they want a clearer understanding of what will happen and why.
The day after the focus groups, amid severe reactions from the markets, CEOs and some of his political allies, Trump announced a three-month pause on reciprocal tariffs — while escalating rates on China.
Driving the news: Six of the 13 supported and one opposed Trump's "Liberation Day" rollout and reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trading partners, while the other six said they didn't know enough to formulate an opinion.
Frank W., 61, of Havertown, said he'd assumed Trump's tariffs would only be a "negotiation tactic" with other nations. "I didn't think we were going to have tariffs for the foreseeable future years from now."
He said the president should go beyond talking points and "explain it to the guy that's going to be paying more for cereal or vegetables or, whatever, a car ... He says, 'Oh, more money's coming in. We'll curb fentanyl. We'll bring manufacturing back.' Manufacturing doesn't happen overnight."
The big picture: Nine of 13 said they approve of Trump's job performance overall, but eight of 13 said they're more anxious about the state of the economy since Trump returned to the White House.
Four who backed him in November but now disapprove of his performance cited layoffs, threats to free speech, U.S. funding for Israel in the war in Gaza, and, as Joe L., 44, of Coatesville, put it, "I feel like there's more taken away than given right now."
Between the lines: One recurring theme in the panels was swing voters gave Trump credit for taking lots of action in his first three months, even if they didn't agree with some of those actions or his moves were legally challenged, rescinded or revised.
I think we needed a change and we weren't heading in a very good direction before," said Fred K., 57, of Norristown. Asked if things are moving in a good direction now, he said, "I don't know, but at least we're heading somewhere."
Jen M., 53, of Havertown, said she's divided 60-40 about whether she approves of Trump's performance. "I'm really only slightly leaning towards the approval, and it's — he's a man of action. That's why I approve of him."
What they're saying:"They are anxious about the tariffs but giving him the benefit of the doubt," said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. "There are concerns about higher prices. There are concerns about investments.
"Most of these swing voters continue to support him because they want long-ignored problems finally addressed" and feel that "things have been so screwed up for so long and he's finally doing something about it."
Still, eight of 13 said Trump is trying too much at once and should prioritize his goals.
"I think the anxiety for me is just not being able to pinpoint anything because — and not understanding the plan because — it's just too many moving parts," said Akia B., 23, of Philadelphia.
How it works: These 13 Pennsylvania voters, who backed Trump in November after supporting Joe Biden in 2020, participated in two online panels conducted April 8. Six are Republicans, four independents and three Democrats.
While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events.
The intrigue: Nine of the 13 said they do not support legislation that would require tariffs to get approval from Congress to last beyond 60 days.
"I don't think Congress could vote to turn a light bulb on and off in under 60 days," said Dennis H., 65, of Downingtown. "They're the quicksand that's dragged us down for years."
What we're watching: None said they're more concerned about Social Security's future since Trump retook office. But they disagreed with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik's construct that only fraudsters would complain if their benefits were delayed.
