18-03-2025
Yahoo Fantasy Plus identifies 3 of 2025's safest hitters — and Astros bats provide plenty of security
In case you haven't heard the exciting news, Yahoo Fantasy Plus has some major upgrades for this fantasy baseball season, giving subscribers new tools with deeper insights for a competitive edge.
Among the improvements, you can access new, detailed maximum and minimum projections in points leagues to better predict a number of things when it comes to your draft prep, including which potential picks you can trust more than others to give your fantasy team consistent results.
[Unlock premium draft tools & player projections with Yahoo Fantasy Plus]
Using the Fantasy Plus Experts Consensus model, we've identified three hitters — all Houston Astros — with the narrowest range of outcomes (AKA the safest starters to project) for 2025. We've also included a wealth of data, both free (consensus projected fantasy points and 2025 season stats) as well as exclusive to Yahoo Fantasy Plus (consensus maximum/minimum fantasy points projections and highest/lowest expert rank) to give you a sample of all we have to offer.
Fred Zinkie has analyzed the data and reveals if he's in or out on each player at their ADP.
Second-narrowest range of outcomes among hitters using Fantasy Plus modeling
Projected fantasy points: 1,051
Consensus maximum fantasy points projection: 1,173
Consensus minimum fantasy points projection: 816
2025 Yahoo Fantasy consensus projections
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
.258
15
66
17
77
Rankings overview
Composite expert rank: 151
Highest overall rank: 112 (Daniel Marcus, Rotowire)
Lowest: 191 (Andy Behrens, Yahoo)
Yahoo ADP: 200
Peña is as predictable as any player in 2025 drafts. The shortstop is entering his prime at age 27, has proven to be durable by missing just 17 games across the past two seasons and has produced an OPS between .701 and .715 in each of his three MLB campaigns. He has a significant floor thanks to his ability to limit strikeouts (career 20.4% rate) and his 98th percentile average sprint speed. But his ceiling is currently capped by mediocre contact quality (career 88.1 mph average exit velocity) and poor plate patience (lifetime 4.9% walk rate). He also gains value by hitting in a quality Astros lineup — a common theme on this list — while also having a limited ceiling by mostly hitting in the bottom half of the order. Many managers will be happy to add someone who can provide 15 homers, 20 steals and a .260 average on the other side of pick 150.
Bottom line: Peña should be drafted 50 picks ahead of his Yahoo ADP (200). His floor is high, and his balanced production makes him especially attractive in roto formats. Also, Pena's elite sprint speed puts a 30-steal season in his range of outcomes.
Fourth-narrowest range of outcomes among hitters using Fantasy Plus modeling
Projected fantasy points: 952
Consensus maximum fantasy points projection: 1,117
Consensus minimum fantasy points projection: 696
2025 Yahoo Fantasy consensus projections
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
.279
19
74
1
66
Rankings overview
Composite expert rank: 112
Highest overall rank: 45 (Ryan Rufe, Rotowire)
Lowest: 169 (Marcus)
Yahoo ADP: 107
Díaz is unique among catchers, as he is virtually assured of being among the batting average leaders. After all, the 26-year-old has hit .282 and .299 in the past two seasons with an xBA in each year that matched for exceeded his actual mark. Unfortunately, his penchant for hitting ground balls and line drives leaves him with a low power ceiling, as it's hard for someone with a lifetime 30.3% fly ball rate to produce more than 20 homers. To make significant strides, Díaz will need to either raise his launch angle or improve his plate patience (career 3.6% walk rate), but he can make a significant fantasy impact without any changes at all.
Bottom line: Unfortunately, I'm passing on Díaz at his current ADP as the fourth catcher selected in Yahoo drafts. In my eyes, Díaz is near the front of a deep tier of solid catchers, but he offers little advantage over the men who are still on the board 50 picks later.
Fifth-narrowest range of outcomes among hitters using Fantasy Plus modeling
Projected fantasy points: 1,014
Consensus maximum fantasy points projection: 1,172
Consensus minimum fantasy points projection: 733
2025 Yahoo Fantasy consensus projections
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
.231
21
73
1
71
Rankings overview
Composite expert rank: 173
Highest overall rank: 151 (Dalton Del Don, Yahoo)
Lowest: 184 (Behrens)
Yahoo ADP: 164
Just when we thought that Paredes may need to change his unique batting profile to excel at Wrigley Field, Houston put him back into a situation that plays to his strengths. The Paredes plan is to pull plenty of fly balls down the left field line, which works perfectly with the dimensions of Minute Maid Field. The Astros have committed to batting the patient slugger (career 11.0% walk rate) high in the lineup, which will lead to 25-30 homers and plenty of counting stats. Unfortunately, his slow feet and fly-ball-heavy approach make Paredes a three-category contributor.
Bottom line: Coming off the board on average at pick 164, Paredes is being appropriately valued in Yahoo drafts. His high walk rate makes the slugger slightly more appealing in points leagues, where he can sneak inside the top 150 picks.
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