Latest news with #FundManagerSurvey
Mint
14-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
BofA Survey: Fund Managers favour India over Japan, China for equity exposure
India has emerged as the most preferred equity market in the Asia Pacific region, according to the latest Fund Manager Survey (FMS) by BofA Securities. Backed by positive sentiment around infrastructure development, strong consumption trends, and ongoing supply chain realignments, Indian equities have overtaken Japan to secure the top spot among fund managers. A net 42 percent of respondents in the BofA Securities' May survey favored India over other Asia Pac markets. Japan followed at 39 percent, while China, which had previously ranked lowest, climbed to third place with 6 percent preference. Singapore trailed at 3 percent, and Thailand remained the least favored market in the region. 'India emerges as the most favored market, perceived as a likely beneficiary of supply chain re-alignments following tariff effects,' BofA Securities noted in its survey findings. In terms of sectoral focus, infrastructure and consumption continue to dominate investor interest within Indian markets. The survey included responses from 208 global panelists managing $522 billion in assets under management (AUM). Of these, 174 participants with $458 billion in AUM responded to the global FMS segment, while 109 panelists with $234 billion AUM took part in the regional Asia Pac segment, covering the period between May 2 and May 8, 2025. The survey highlighted an improving sentiment around economic growth in the Asia Pac region. While 58 percent of fund managers still expect an earnings slowdown, the number has declined from 78 percent in the previous month, signaling a potential turnaround in outlook. Moreover, current earnings forecasts are not viewed as overly optimistic, suggesting possible room for upward revisions. Globally, pessimism is easing. A net 59 percent of fund managers still expect a weaker global economy, down from 82 percent last month. Meanwhile, 77 percent now forecast a softer Asian economy, compared to 89 percent in the prior survey. The mood on China has become increasingly constructive. Only 16 percent of respondents said they are actively seeking opportunities outside China, compared to 26 percent a month ago. In fact, a record 10 percent of participants reported being fully invested in the Chinese market. It is worth noting that the survey was conducted before the May 8 US-China meeting in Geneva, which was followed by an announcement regarding tariff reductions—potentially further boosting sentiment towards Chinese equities. In Asia ex-Japan portfolios, fund managers were seen overweighting telecom and software sectors, while underweighting energy, materials, and consumer discretionary (excluding retail and e-commerce). Sentiment towards the semiconductor sector has also improved, with only 42 percent now expecting a slowdown in the chip cycle—down from 59 percent last month. In Japan, banks continue to be the most preferred investment theme, supported by the backdrop of higher interest rates. Real estate has climbed to the second spot in terms of sectoral preference. Meanwhile, in China, investors favored themes around AI, semiconductors, and companies likely to announce buybacks or dividends. Overall, India's emergence as the most preferred equity market in Asia Pac underscores growing global investor confidence in its long-term economic fundamentals and sector-specific growth stories. With fund managers continuing to eye infrastructure and consumption as key themes, and broader regional sentiment improving, Indian equities appear well-positioned to attract sustained institutional flows in the coming months. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Arabian Post
25-04-2025
- Business
- Arabian Post
Investors Pull $1.3 Billion from Gold ETF Amid Market Shifts
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, experienced a significant outflow of $1.3 billion on April 22, 2025—the largest single-day withdrawal since 2011. This substantial movement reflects a notable shift in investor sentiment, as market participants reallocate assets in response to evolving economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Sees Largest Weekly Outflow Since 2022 on Trump Win – Bloomberg) The outflow coincided with a decline in gold prices, which fell nearly 2% to $3,318.71 per ounce. This drop followed U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to retract his threat to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his expression of optimism regarding a potential trade agreement with China. These developments reduced the perceived need for safe-haven assets like gold, prompting investors to reassess their portfolios. Simultaneously, the U.S. dollar and stock markets rebounded, further diminishing gold's appeal. Analysts, including OANDA's Kelvin Wong, cited these factors as triggers for the selloff, though he noted that potential upside movement in gold remains. Despite this short-term dip, gold had previously surged to a record high of $3,500 per ounce, and JP Morgan anticipates it could exceed $4,000 next year. The broader context includes a significant surge in gold prices earlier in April, driven by investor concerns over the weakening U.S. dollar and President Trump's economic policies. Gold reached a new peak of over $3,500 per ounce before settling at $3,426, marking a nearly 30% increase since Trump's return to office. Analysts at JPMorgan predict gold could hit $4,000 by mid-2026, fueled by purchases from central banks and retail investors. See also Investor Sentiment Surges as Crypto Market Enters Greed Zone However, the easing of trade tensions and positive developments in U.S.-China relations have led to a reassessment of risk, with investors moving away from traditional safe havens. European gold funds, for instance, experienced significant inflows earlier in April, with approximately €1 billion poured into gold exchange-traded commodities during the week ending April 18, 2025. This marked the highest level of inflows since mid-January, reflecting rising investor demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating market volatility sparked by U.S. trade tariffs. Despite these inflows, the subsequent outflows from GLD indicate a shift in investor strategy. The Bank of America's April 2025 Fund Manager Survey revealed that institutional investors are adjusting their portfolios in response to global economic fears driven by U.S. tariff policies and escalating concerns of a recession. The survey indicated that investor expectations for economic growth have dropped to 30-year lows, with 82% predicting a weaker global economy this year. In response, money managers are moving away from high-risk sectors like technology and U.S. equities, instead turning to safer investments. Gold has emerged as the top asset, with 42% of fund managers favoring it—up from 23% in March—due to its reputation as a safe haven in volatile markets and hedge against inflation. This surge in interest is mirrored by the SPDR Gold Shares ETF surpassing $100 billion in assets under management and gold prices hitting record highs above $3,300 an ounce. Arabian Post – Crypto News Network
Forbes
18-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Why Infrastructure Investing May Outperform During Stagflation
(Photo by) Getty Images As trade tensions escalate between China and the United States, investors are grappling with potential impacts on their portfolios. Concerns about stagflation—a situation characterized by rising consumer prices combined with declining economic growth—are increasing. Historically, equities have performed well during periods of inflation because companies typically pass on higher input costs to consumers to preserve their operating margins. However, during stagflationary periods, consumer spending declines as economic weakness leads to job losses and a reduction in overall demand. Investors must adapt their strategies to navigate stagflation, targeting market sectors resilient enough to withstand both rising input costs and weakened consumer demand. Infrastructure assets, such as roads, bridges, water systems, and energy facilities, can offer effective protection. Recent economic indicators suggest that the U.S. economy may be entering a stagflationary period. According to the University of Michigan's latest consumer survey, one-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.7% in April 2025, the highest level since 1981 and the fourth consecutive month of substantial increases. Simultaneously, economic growth projections have been revised downward. S&P Global cut its forecast for real gross domestic product growth on April 16 by 0.6 percentage points to 1.3%, attributing the slowdown largely to tariff policies that are expected to boost inflation while suppressing economic activity. Bank of America's latest Fund Manager Survey offers a more alarming perspective: 82% of institutional investors expect global economic weakness over the next 12 months—the highest proportion on record. Infrastructure assets tend to perform well during stagflationary periods for several reasons. First, many infrastructure assets have inflation-adjusted revenue models. For instance, the Indiana Toll Road, a 157-mile highway across northern Indiana, features automatic toll rate increases that adjust with inflation. Such contractual adjustments ensure stable inflation-adjusted returns. Second, infrastructure assets provide essential services with inherently inelastic demand. Electricity, water, transportation, and communications remain necessary regardless of economic conditions, ensuring stable cash flows even during a recession. Third, infrastructure investments typically feature predictable long-term cash flows backed by extended contracts or regulatory agreements. Such reliability is especially valuable during stagflation when earnings visibility is challenging for many companies. Lastly, infrastructure assets have a low correlation with traditional stocks and bonds, adding diversification and stability to investment portfolios. A December 2024 KKR study that examined twenty-year quarterly returns for various asset classes showed private infrastructure had a 0.58% correlation with global equities. Other studies show an even lower correlation. Investors have various options for investing in infrastructure, including public and private assets, single stocks, industry-specific investments, or diversified infrastructure funds. Two examples are the iShares Global Infrastructure ETF (ticker: IGF) and the StepStone Private Infrastructure Fund (ticker: STRUX). The iShares Global Infrastructure ETF provides diversified exposure to 75 large-cap infrastructure companies across 23 countries, tracking the S&P Global Infrastructure Index. Sector allocation is roughly 39% utilities, 38% industrials, and 23% energy. IGF is geographically diversified, with 43% of holdings in U.S. companies, 17% in European firms, and 11% in Australasian stocks. This global exposure reduces reliance on the U.S. dollar, benefiting investors if the dollar weakens. IGF's top holdings include Spanish airport operator Aena SME, North American energy transportation giant Enbridge Inc., and Australian toll road operator Transurban Group. IGF has performed strongly in 2025, returning 4.92% through April 16 compared to a -10% return for the S&P 500. With $6.16 billion in assets and a 0.42% expense ratio, IGF offers efficient access to global infrastructure assets. StepStone's STRUX is an evergreen fund that targets global private infrastructure investments in the transportation, power, and data sectors. Unlike traditional private equity vehicles, STRUX accepts daily subscriptions and provides quarterly liquidity. An advantage of STRUX's structure is simplicity: no capital calls, predictable distributions, and tax reporting via a 1099 rather than a K-1. StepStone acquires assets primarily in secondary markets, often at discounts of 3% to 7% below net asset value, directly enhancing investor returns. The fund also makes investments in the primary market and through co-investments with other private equity managers. Similar to IGF, STRUX is geographically diversified, holding 68% of its assets outside the U.S. as of March 31. The fund has over 200 positions across 48 investments and 22 managers, effectively functioning as a fund of funds for private infrastructure. The fund has $391 million in assets and charges a 1.60% management fee. Bob Long, CEO of StepStone Private Wealth, emphasizes the defensive appeal of the asset class: 'Investors concerned about potential inflation triggered by tariffs should consider private infrastructure. These assets provide essential services and often feature built-in inflation escalators, such as CPI-linked highway toll adjustments.' Highlighting diversification benefits, Long notes, 'Private infrastructure has historically shown low correlation to public markets, making it an effective diversifier for traditional stock and bond portfolios.' STRUX has delivered a 6.75% return in 2025, reflecting the defensive nature of the portfolio and the less volatile price swings of private assets relative to publicly traded stocks. In the current climate, infrastructure assets may appeal to two types of investors. Defensive investors concerned about rising inflation and slowing growth can diversify their technology-heavy broad index equity exposure by incorporating infrastructure investments, either public or private, into their portfolios. Additionally, investors with substantial cash reserves may find infrastructure-focused funds like IGF or STRUX appealing as a lower-volatility way to re-enter the equity market, offering potentially higher returns than traditional money market investments. Infrastructure's historical resilience during economic stress could yield higher returns compared to cash, without the volatility associated with broader equity markets. With the added benefit of essential services and inflation-adjusted cash flows, infrastructure investments could be a conservative way to protect portfolios from stagflation risk.
The Independent
17-04-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Fears of the economy tanking are now higher than they were at the height of the Covid pandemic
As a result of the Trump administration 's ever-evolving tariff agenda, investor sentiment is now worse than it was during the height of the Covid pandemic, which paralyzed large parts of the global economy, according to new survey data. Sentiment among fund managers is the fifth lowest on record, according to the most recent Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, which polled 164 global fund managers managing a cumulative $386 billion in assets between April 4 and 10. Investor feeling was only worse in the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attack, the global financial crisis, Trump's first-term trade war with China, and the 2022 inflation crisis. The survey began two days after Trump announced his 'Liberation Day' tariffs on U.S. trading partners and ended a day after the president shifted course and announced a 90-day pause on levies for countries other than China. The data captures a variety of alarming signs for the global economic outlook. Growth expectations fell to a 30-year low, with nearly half of fund managers saying they expected a 'hard landing' for the global economy over the next 12 month. Ninety percent of fund managers said they expected to see the dreaded stagflation — rising prices and slowing growth at the same time — in the next 12 months. Roughly 42 percent of investors polled expect a global recession, the highest level since June 2023 and the fourth-highest mark on this question in the last 20 years. Meanwhile, the percentage of investors intending to cut allocations to U.S. equities rose to its highest level since the survey began in 2001. The survey also captured a dramatic swing from 17 percent of respondents saying their portfolios were overweighted with U.S. stocks in February to 36 percent saying they were underweight by this month. The Bank of America data squares with grim predictions from other forecasters. Analysts from S&P predict the Trump tariffs, in which Chinese goods have been threatened with up to a 245 percent levy, could rival the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the Covid pandemic for their impact on the U.S. auto industry, with forecasters cutting 700,000 cars from annual U.S. sales estimates. This week, the World Trade Organization changed its global merchandise trade forecast from growth to decline. The tariffs 'leave the markets kind of baffled, without investors having a clear idea of whether they should hold or fold when it comes to their own stock portfolio,' Ed Yardeni, former chief investment strategist at Deutsche Bank's U.S. equities division, told ABC News. Further investor anxiety could be on the way, as Trump has s aid he may soon oust Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, even though the president lacks the power to remove someone from the independent entity. The Fed boss said yesterday warned that Trump's tariffs were 'highly likely' to cause inflation and could put the Fed in a 'challenging situation' where it's trying to balance growth and manage inflation.
Axios
17-04-2025
- Business
- Axios
Trump tariffs sink global economy outlook
Global fund managers have turned startlingly pessimistic when it comes to the chances that the world will be able to withstand the effect of across-the-board U.S. tariffs — and they're particularly bearish when it comes to the U.S. itself. Why it matters: The most recent Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America underscores the thesis that global investors are selling America. By the numbers: The most recent survey, which was conducted between April 4 and April 10, included 164 global fund managers who collectively have $386 billion of assets under management. 49% of them said that a hard landing is now the most likely outcome for the global economy, up from 6% in February and 11% in March. The percentage of investors intending to cut their allocation to U.S. equities rose to the highest level since the survey began in 2001. Bank of America's fund manager sentiment index is now lower than it was even at the depths of the pandemic crash in 2020. Zoom out: 82% of respondents said the global economy is set to weaken — that's a 30-year high. For the first time in over two years, the most crowded trade is no longer being long the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks. Instead, it's being long gold.
