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How Trump's Iran Attacks Could Help Putin
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Russia's oil exports, which fund Vladimir Putin's war machine, could get a boost in the aftermath of the U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear sites if Tehran makes good on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, energy experts have told Newsweek.
Oil prices have surged and Iran, a key oil producer, has warned it could retaliate to the strikes by the U.S. and Israel by closing the world's most strategic transit point for the commodity connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Iranian officials have threatened to mine the strait and as such U.S. military officials are preparing a plan for such a closure which could choke off a quarter of the world's oil supply and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas, according to The New York Times.
But this move may reverse months of declining Russian oil revenue, allowing Moscow to continue to finance its war against Ukraine.
"Russia could emerge as a beneficiary if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz," Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at told Newsweek on Monday.
This image from June 28, 2019 in Osaka, Japan shows Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit.
This image from June 28, 2019 in Osaka, Japan shows Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at the G20 It Matters
Revenues from fossil fuels are the core of Russia's fiscal planning. This has been steadily decreasing and in May they over a third lower than for the same month last year.
But spiking oil prices after Israel and then the U.S. targeted the nuclear facilities of Iran, a key producer of the commodity, could deliver a boon for Russian revenues.
The U.S. attacks may also take away global attention from Putin's aggression for the time being and lead to strikes by Iran and its proxies on American military interests in the Middle East, which could play into Russia's hands.
What To Know
Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer for the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), told Newsweek it is unclear how Iran will respond but the threat to commercial shipping in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula "has gone up yet another notch."
Larsen said Iran might attempt a wider disruption of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz through attacks on merchant ships via antiship missiles or drones of both airborne and surface type.
The laying of sea mines would be another dangerous development, but Iran's intent to do so is questionable due to the risk to Iran-affiliated commercial ships and the risk of environmental disaster in case a ship is damaged, Larsen added.
On Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose to just under $74 a barrel, a 0.2 percent gain, less than the nearly 4 percent spike seen Sunday evening.
Brent crude rose 0.8 percent on Monday to $77.62 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed by the same margin to $74.42 in early trading with prices going as high as $81 over the weekend before settling down.
Tzabouras, from told Newsweek the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even for a limited period, could trigger a surge in oil prices, potentially pushing them above $100 per barrel.
Russia could get a boost from such a move and even though it's not easy to determine the impact on volumes, higher oil prices from such action would boost Russia's revenues.
"This, in turn, could enable Moscow to continue funding the war in Ukraine and resist growing international pressure to end the hostilities," Tzabouras added.
Russell Shor, senior market analyst at said a blockade could increase Russia's revenue from its 7.5 million bpd (barrel per day) exports, which bypass the strait via Suez or Pacific routes.
Asian markets, like China and India, might also favor Russian oil in such a scenario. However, Iran relies on the strait for its own oil exports, and closure risks alienating allies like China. The U.S. Fifth Fleet would likely intervene, escalating tensions and so Iran might choose targeted disruptions over a full blockade to pressure the West, he added.
Trump referred to the impact on oil prices that his strikes might cause with a post on Truth Social in which he said "everyone, keep oil prices down."
Larsen said that as well as a blockade, there are many other risks posed to the region such as Tehran's proxies, the Houthis who may attack in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden merchant ships with affiliations to Israel or the U.S, with strikes against merchant ships with other affiliations also possible.
BIMCO recommends merchant ships in the area to avoid the Iranian coast and maintain contact with naval forces in the area through U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
This infographic from Getty shows maritime tanker traffic in September 2024 through the Strait of Hormuz.
This infographic from Getty shows maritime tanker traffic in September 2024 through the Strait of Hormuz.
Getty Images
What People Are Saying
Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu, told Newsweek on Monday: "Russia could emerge as a beneficiary if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz."
President Donald Trump on Truth Social on Monday: "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!"
Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer for the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), told Newsweek: "It can't be ruled out that Iran will attempt a wider disruption of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz through comprehensive attacks on merchant ships by for example antiship missiles or drones of both airborne and surface type."
What Happens Next
As The New York Times reported, U.S. officials have raised the need to prepare for the closure of the Strait. Meanwhile, military officials and analysts said missile and drone attacks are the biggest retaliatory threat by Tehran to U.S. bases and facilities in the region.
