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The National
4 days ago
- Politics
- The National
John Curtice in warning to SNP and Labour after Hamilton by-election
The polling expert was appearing on the BBC after it was announced that Davy Russell had won the by-election for Scottish Labour, becoming the party's 23 MSP with 31.5% of the total vote. The SNP were second, with their candidate Katy Loudon picking up 29.4% of the vote, while Reform UK's Ross Lambie was a close third with 26.2%. Speaking to the BBC, Professor Curtice said that the result had confirmed the 'evidence of the opinion polls', but that Reform's level of support was "a bit of a surprise". READ MORE: Hamilton by-election results – see the full breakdown in charts and graphs He explained: 'The revival of the Labour Party that took place in the two years running up to the General Election has indeed disappeared, the party is indeed more or less back to where it was in 2021. 'But at the same time, with the SNP vote down by 17 points, here is more than ample evidence that indeed the SNP, while it might have steadied the ship psychologically, has still made very little progress in advancing on where it was at last summer.' Curtice said that the vote result showed that there was a 'chunk' of pro-Yes voters who had backed Labour in the 2024 General Election and 'have not returned to the SNP fold'. He added: 'This election confirms very, very clearly that the SNP still have an awful lot of work to do to get those voters back on side, and it does illustrate that indeed, although, given, if this kind of result were to be reflected across the whole of Scotland, we'd still bet about the SNP being the largest party, they are still on relatively fragile ground.' The University of Strathclyde expert further said that Reform UK's vote share had been a 'bit of a surprise given the national polls'. Reform UK candidate Ross Lambie campaigning in the by-election (Image: Gordon Terris) He went on: 'That 26% almost matches their best performance in the Scottish local government by-election [in Clydebank]. It is higher than we would expect given the current polls in Scotland. 'It certainly is very bad news for the Conservative Party, who are frankly being had for breakfast, lunch, and dinner by Reform at the moment, so far as the public is concerned. They're at 18% in the GB-wide polls, they're down to 12% in the Scotland polls. The Conservative Party cannot afford for Reform to gain momentum north of the Border.' However, he went on to issue a warning to the SNP and Labour, saying both parties 'need to think about how are they going to effectively deal with Reform'. Curtice said: 'For all the complaints about Nigel Farage's ad [attacking Anas Sarwar], it is not clear from this result that it did any damage. 'I think I would point out to both the SNP and the Labour Party that what they ended up doing in this by-election campaign was giving an awful lot of publicity to a message that they thought was not a very good idea. 'One of the first rules in politics is to avoid scratching the itch of things you do not like because you simply end up potentially giving them airtime. READ MORE: Angus Robertson tears into BBC coverage of Hamilton by-election count on live TV 'And the truth is that evidently Mr Farage's message was not sufficiently unacceptable for at least a body of people in Hamilton for Reform to record a quite notable share of the vote, and certainly the highest share of the vote won in a parliamentary contest by any anti-EU party in Scotland.' Asked where Reform's vote had come from, Curtice said: 'Around one in four of the people who voted Conservative last year, diminished in number as they were, in Scotland are switching to Reform. 'But Labour also are losing somewhere between one in six and one in five of their voters to Reform of the ones they had last year.' He added that Scottish voters who backed Labour in 2024 are more likely to switch to Reform than English voters, saying that south of the Border Labour 'are losing about 10% of their vote to Reform'.
Scotsman
19-05-2025
- Politics
- Scotsman
Nigel Farage's Reform is more of a threat to Labour in Scotland, says Professor Sir John Curtice
In an exclusive interview with The Steamie podcast, we take a look at what to expect in the 2026 Holyrood election. Sign up to our Politics newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... Reform is much more of a threat to Labour in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK, according to pollster Professor Sir John Curtice. In an exclusive interview with The Steamie, The Scotsman's politics podcast, Sir John said the newly-acquired support for Labour in Scotland in last year's general election is 'vulnerable'. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad He says this means Labour are more in danger of losing votes to Nigel Farage's Reform UK in Scotland, whereas in the rest of the UK most of Reform's vote is coming from the Conservatives. Sir John also said the upcoming Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election will give an insight into whether the SNP can see off the challenge of Labour, and that he would not put money on Anas Sarwar becoming First Minister. Speaking to The Steamie, Sir John said: 'The UK Labour government has managed to lose support more rapidly and more heavily than any previously elected government because the electorate has not embraced them, they have no clear story and they made promises on tax - all of these things are very clear weaknesses which are coming home to roost. University of Strathclyde professor of politics Sir John Curtice. Picture:|'Because so much of the Labour vote was newly acquired, that vote is more vulnerable than it is south of the Border, and in particular is more vulnerable to the rise of Reform than in south of the Border. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad South of the Border, Conservatives in 'existential' fight with Reform 'There's a lot of excitement about the fact Reform is taking seats off Labour and yes they are, but their votes are primarily coming from the Conservatives who are now in an existential fight with Reform. 'South of the Border [the Conservatives] lost about 30 per cent who voted for them last year, on top of the 25 per cent from 2019 who switched to Reform, whereas Labour south of the border are losing 10 per cent. 'North of the Border, Labour losses to Reform are about 50 per cent above the GB-wide figure. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking after Reform made gains against both Labour and the Conservatives across England in local polls. PIC: PA/PA Wire | Press Association 'Undoubtedly what's going on is Labour took a lot of unionist votes off the Conservatives at the last election and that was more important to Labour north of the Border. 'They were always more likely to switch to Reform if there was a Reform surge.' The most recent polling from Survation suggests Reform UK will trump Scottish Labour at the ballot box to become the official opposition in the Scottish Parliament. This poll predicts Reform will pick up 21 seats, keeping Scottish Labour in third place on 18 seats. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad After last year's resounding victory for Labour in the general election, Labour had been neck-and-neck in the Holyrood polling with the SNP and there were expectations Scottish Labour Mr Sarwar could be put forward as the new First Minister if there was a pro-unionist majority. However, this scenario looks increasingly unlikely as Labour plummets in the polls on the back of unpopular decisions down in Westminster. Sir John said: 'I am not a betting man, but I wouldn't put money on Anas Sarwar becoming First Minister. 'The fundamental thing that went wrong for Anas Sarwar was Keir Starmer winning the general election. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad All smiles, but Anas Sarwar knows that Keir Starmer is the one calling the shots (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell) | Jeff'Despite all the euphoria surrounding Labour in Scotland, because it was the one part of the UK where Labour made significant progress whereas elsewhere the progress was frankly anaemic, two years into the middle of a Westminster government will be a tough gig.' At the moment the most likely outcome at the ballot box is for the SNP to remain the largest party in Holyrood, albeit on reduced numbers. SNP benefiting from decline of Labour and the Tories However, despite the SNP's narrative this is down to its leader John Swinney steadying the ship, Sir John says the decline of Labour and the Conservatives is at play here. He told The Steamie: 'The lay of the land is the SNP is much less popular than it was in 2021 where they got 47 per cent on the constituency vote. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'They are now running at about 33 per cent, but because of the fragmentation of the unionist vote the SNP are odds-on favourites to run the next Scottish Government, albeit from a weaker parliamentary position than the one they enjoy in the current parliament. 'This is a wonderful example of how a party that for the most part has not made much progress over the last year has seen its prospects transform because its principal opponents have suffered substantial decline. John Swinney takes a selfie with candidates for the 2026 Holyrood election (Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire) | Jane Barlow/Press Association 'Sure the ship is steady in that the SNP is not going down, but this is a crucial reminder in politics that it's not how popular you are that matters, but how popular you are relative to your opponents.' The SNP's fortunes post-2024 will get its first test in three weeks' time at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad If the nationalists can hold on to the seat, it could be an indication the trajectory is in their favour. Sir John said: 'The seats to look out for in 2026 are the ones where the SNP doesn't have a comfortable majority - it just so happens the Hamilton by-election is such a seat. 'It will be fascinating and it will give us a clue as to whether or not the SNP can hang onto seats against a Labour challenge. 'And that could primarily determine whether or not we have a pro-independence majority at Holyrood and how strong the SNP's position is going to be.' Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Steps towards a second independence referendum Getting a pro-independence majority in 2026 is the first of many steps towards the potential of a second independence referendum. As Sir John sets out in The Steamie, two things need to happen - first, a pro-independence majority is elected to Holyrood. Second, a Labour minority is elected at the next general election, which may need to rely on support from the SNP. Sir John said: 'It has long been my view that the only way a referendum will happen soon is a minority Labour government becomes unpopular in the polls and doesn't want to face the electorate and the only way of surviving a vote of no confidence is to get the backing of the SNP. 'That's when deals get done. 'But unless there is a pro-independence majority at Holyrood that can take advantage of having leverage, they need a majority of Holyrood.' Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie said: 'The UK Labour government is working hard to clean up the mess left behind by a Tory party that destroyed public services, crashed the economy and torched trust in politics. 'Reform is capitalising on the failures of the last Tory government and the current SNP government, but they don't have the answers Scotland needs. 'The next Scottish Parliament election will be about the chaos the SNP has created in our NHS, their mismanagement of our education system and their shameful cuts to affordable housing in the face of a housing emergency.
Scotsman
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Scotsman
Nigel Farage's Reform is more of a threat to Labour in Scotland, says Professor Sir John Curtice
In an exclusive interview with The Steamie podcast, we take a look at what to expect in the 2026 Holyrood election. Sign up to our Politics newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... Reform is much more of a threat to Labour in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK, according to pollster Professor Sir John Curtice. In an exclusive interview with The Steamie, The Scotsman's politics podcast, Sir John said the newly-acquired support for Labour in Scotland in last year's general election is 'vulnerable'. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad He says this means Labour are more in danger of losing votes to Nigel Farage's Reform UK in Scotland, whereas in the rest of the UK most of Reform's vote is coming from the Conservatives. Sir John also said the upcoming Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election will give an insight into whether the SNP can see off the challenge of Labour, and that he would not put money on Anas Sarwar becoming First Minister. Speaking to The Steamie, Sir John said: 'The UK Labour government has managed to lose support more rapidly and more heavily than any previously elected government because the electorate has not embraced them, they have no clear story and they made promises on tax - all of these things are very clear weaknesses which are coming home to roost. University of Strathclyde professor of politics Sir John Curtice. Picture:|'Because so much of the Labour vote was newly acquired, that vote is more vulnerable than it is south of the Border, and in particular is more vulnerable to the rise of Reform than in south of the Border. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad South of the Border, Conservatives in 'existential' fight with Reform 'There's a lot of excitement about the fact Reform is taking seats off Labour and yes they are, but their votes are primarily coming from the Conservatives who are now in an existential fight with Reform. 'South of the Border [the Conservatives] lost about 30 per cent who voted for them last year, on top of the 25 per cent from 2019 who switched to Reform, whereas Labour south of the border are losing 10 per cent. 'North of the Border, Labour losses to Reform are about 50 per cent above the GB-wide figure. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking after Reform made gains against both Labour and the Conservatives across England in local polls. PIC: PA/PA Wire | Press Association 'Undoubtedly what's going on is Labour took a lot of unionist votes off the Conservatives at the last election and that was more important to Labour north of the Border. 'They were always more likely to switch to Reform if there was a Reform surge.' The most recent polling from Survation suggests Reform UK will trump Scottish Labour at the ballot box to become the official opposition in the Scottish Parliament. This poll predicts Reform will pick up 21 seats, keeping Scottish Labour in third place on 18 seats. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad After last year's resounding victory for Labour in the general election, Labour had been neck-and-neck in the Holyrood polling with the SNP and there were expectations Scottish Labour Mr Sarwar could be put forward as the new First Minister if there was a pro-unionist majority. However, this scenario looks increasingly unlikely as Labour plummets in the polls on the back of unpopular decisions down in Westminster. Sir John said: 'I am not a betting man, but I wouldn't put money on Anas Sarwar becoming First Minister. 'The fundamental thing that went wrong for Anas Sarwar was Keir Starmer winning the general election. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad All smiles, but Anas Sarwar knows that Keir Starmer is the one calling the shots (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell) | Jeff'Despite all the euphoria surrounding Labour in Scotland, because it was the one part of the UK where Labour made significant progress whereas elsewhere the progress was frankly anaemic, two years into the middle of a Westminster government will be a tough gig.' At the moment the most likely outcome at the ballot box is for the SNP to remain the largest party in Holyrood, albeit on reduced numbers. SNP benefiting from decline of Labour and the Tories However, despite the SNP's narrative this is down to its leader John Swinney steadying the ship, Sir John says the decline of Labour and the Conservatives is at play here. He told The Steamie: 'The lay of the land is the SNP is much less popular than it was in 2021 where they got 47 per cent on the constituency vote. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad 'They are now running at about 33 per cent, but because of the fragmentation of the unionist vote the SNP are odds-on favourites to run the next Scottish Government, albeit from a weaker parliamentary position than the one they enjoy in the current parliament. 'This is a wonderful example of how a party that for the most part has not made much progress over the last year has seen its prospects transform because its principal opponents have suffered substantial decline. John Swinney takes a selfie with candidates for the 2026 Holyrood election (Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire) | Jane Barlow/Press Association 'Sure the ship is steady in that the SNP is not going down, but this is a crucial reminder in politics that it's not how popular you are that matters, but how popular you are relative to your opponents.' The SNP's fortunes post-2024 will get its first test in three weeks' time at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad If the nationalists can hold on to the seat, it could be an indication the trajectory is in their favour. Sir John said: 'The seats to look out for in 2026 are the ones where the SNP doesn't have a comfortable majority - it just so happens the Hamilton by-election is such a seat. 'It will be fascinating and it will give us a clue as to whether or not the SNP can hang onto seats against a Labour challenge. 'And that could primarily determine whether or not we have a pro-independence majority at Holyrood and how strong the SNP's position is going to be.' Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Steps towards a second independence referendum Getting a pro-independence majority in 2026 is the first of many steps towards the potential of a second independence referendum. As Sir John sets out in The Steamie, two things need to happen - first, a pro-independence majority is elected to Holyrood. Second, a Labour minority is elected at the next general election, which may need to rely on support from the SNP. Sir John said: 'It has long been my view that the only way a referendum will happen soon is a minority Labour government becomes unpopular in the polls and doesn't want to face the electorate and the only way of surviving a vote of no confidence is to get the backing of the SNP. 'That's when deals get done. 'But unless there is a pro-independence majority at Holyrood that can take advantage of having leverage, they need a majority of Holyrood.' Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie said: 'The UK Labour government is working hard to clean up the mess left behind by a Tory party that destroyed public services, crashed the economy and torched trust in politics. 'Reform is capitalising on the failures of the last Tory government and the current SNP government, but they don't have the answers Scotland needs. 'The next Scottish Parliament election will be about the chaos the SNP has created in our NHS, their mismanagement of our education system and their shameful cuts to affordable housing in the face of a housing emergency.
Scotsman
05-05-2025
- Politics
- Scotsman
John Curtice: English local election results 'good news' for John Swinney and 'bad news' for Anas Sarwar
Nigel Farage's Reform UK had a stellar time at the English polls, which could spell trouble ahead for Scottish Labour. Sign up to our Politics newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... Reform's success in last week's English local elections are 'bad news' for Scottish Labour lader Anas Sarwar, according to polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice. Prof Curtice said there was no reason the polls, which predict Nigel Farage's party will do well in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, would not come true. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Reform UK won 677 council seats south of the Border last week, taking control of ten local authorities, and winning a Westminster by-election to add another MP to their roster. Political scientist Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University. Picture:|On the other hand, the Conservatives and Labour had a terrible time at the polls. The Tories lost 674 seats and Labour lost 187 councillors, pushing them down into third and fourth place respectively. The latest Holyrood polling in March put Reform UK on 17 per cent on the constituency vote share and 16 per cent on the list vote, which is the highest the party has ever recorded in a Scottish poll. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Prof Curtice told the BBC: 'People are asking themselves if they could believe the GB-wide opinion polls suggesting Reform is at 25 per cent, narrowly ahead of the Conservatives and Labour. 'If anything the local election results in parts of England suggest, if anything, they are doing better than that. 'Reform is not as popular north of the Border at 15 per cent rather than 25 per cent, but given what's happened frankly there is no reason to disbelieve that.' The polling expert said support for Reform UK in Scotland was concentrated amongst those who supported the union and those who were anti-immigration and against gender forms. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Prof Curtice added: 'They are primarily taking votes from the Conservatives and Labour - Labour is more vulnerable north of the Border than in the south. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. | Jane Barlow/Press Association. 'Very few who voted SNP last summer have switched in [Reform's] direction, which means the message is bad news for Anas Sarwar and the Scottish Conservatives and good news for John Swinney.' Prof Curtice said Mr Swinney's election tactics were 'clever' by helping to 'sow dissension and disagreement within the unionist camp'.
Scotsman
05-05-2025
- Politics
- Scotsman
John Curtice: English local election results 'good news' for John Swinney and 'bad news' for Anas Sarwar
Nigel Farage's Reform UK had a stellar time at the English polls, which could spell trouble ahead for Scottish Labour. Sign up to our Politics newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... Reform's success in last week's English local elections are 'bad news' for Scottish Labour lader Anas Sarwar, according to polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice. Prof Curtice said there was no reason the polls, which predict Nigel Farage's party will do well in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, would not come true. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Reform UK won 677 council seats south of the Border last week, taking control of ten local authorities, and winning a Westminster by-election to add another MP to their roster. Political scientist Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University. Picture:|On the other hand, the Conservatives and Labour had a terrible time at the polls. The Tories lost 674 seats and Labour lost 187 councillors, pushing them down into third and fourth place respectively. The latest Holyrood polling in March put Reform UK on 17 per cent on the constituency vote share and 16 per cent on the list vote, which is the highest the party has ever recorded in a Scottish poll. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Prof Curtice told the BBC: 'People are asking themselves if they could believe the GB-wide opinion polls suggesting Reform is at 25 per cent, narrowly ahead of the Conservatives and Labour. 'If anything the local election results in parts of England suggest, if anything, they are doing better than that. 'Reform is not as popular north of the Border at 15 per cent rather than 25 per cent, but given what's happened frankly there is no reason to disbelieve that.' The polling expert said support for Reform UK in Scotland was concentrated amongst those who supported the union and those who were anti-immigration and against gender forms. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Prof Curtice added: 'They are primarily taking votes from the Conservatives and Labour - Labour is more vulnerable north of the Border than in the south. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. | Jane Barlow/Press Association. 'Very few who voted SNP last summer have switched in [Reform's] direction, which means the message is bad news for Anas Sarwar and the Scottish Conservatives and good news for John Swinney.' Prof Curtice said Mr Swinney's election tactics were 'clever' by helping to 'sow dissension and disagreement within the unionist camp'.
