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Asia Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Asia Times
ASEAN-GCC-China summit: a civilized vision in a fractured world
The inaugural ASEAN-GCC-China Summit held in Kuala Lumpur on May 27, 2025, may have passed with minimal fanfare in the Western press, but in the corridors of regional diplomacy, it marked a tectonic shift. More than just a diplomatic novelty, the summit signaled a concerted effort to reimagine global cooperation from the perspectives of three enduring civilizations—Southeast Asia, the Arabian Gulf and China. Each region brings to the table not only vast economic potential but also a deep civilizational ethos. Their alignment is not one of ideology or strategic confrontation; rather, it is rooted in a desire to resist the deepening fragmentation of the global order. What comes next, therefore, is not merely about policies or agreements but about shaping the architecture of a multipolar future through mutual respect, pragmatic trade and institutional innovation. With the summit hosted under Malaysia's ASEAN chairmanship, the message was deliberate: this is a partnership driven by regional voices, not external dictates. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim made it clear that the gathering was not a geopolitical bloc but a 'platform of mutual convergence.' It is a subtle yet significant distinction. The summit did not yield grandiose communiqués or sweeping defense pledges. Instead, it focused on the pragmatic: trade flows, free trade negotiations, investment corridors and digital and green economy cooperation. In a world overrun by war rhetoric, sanctions and tariff threats, the emphasis on cooperation and long-term planning was notable. But what are the tangible takeaways—and what lies ahead? ASEAN, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China collectively represent a market of over two billion people and a combined GDP of nearly US$25 trillion. Yet, despite this heft, their intra-regional trade remains surprisingly low. Currently, trade between the GCC and ASEAN remains minute. GCC is but the 7th trading partner of ASEAN. However, it is up to the two of them to improve themselves. Similarly, while China is a key trading partner for both regions, much of the engagement remains bilateral, not triangulated. That is poised to change. Among the key priorities outlined during the summit were: The advancement of a GCC-China Free Trade Agreement, with negotiations expected to conclude by mid-2026. The upgrade of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) to its 3.0 version, incorporating digital trade, ESG standards, and green technology collaboration. The proposed development of joint industrial zones, such as a GCC-funded logistics hub in East Malaysia, which would serve as a strategic maritime node connecting the Strait of Malacca to the Arabian Gulf. These economic plans aim to diversify trade dependencies and reduce the outsized reliance on Western markets. Notably, they offer ASEAN and GCC states an opportunity to deepen south-south cooperation—long viewed as a slogan more than a strategy. The Kuala Lumpur Summit was also the unofficial launchpad for ASEAN's Vision 2045, a comprehensive blueprint crafted to guide the region into its second half-century. This vision focuses on: Strategic autonomy – ensuring ASEAN can maintain equidistance in the US-China rivalry while advancing its own security and economic priorities. Institutional deepening – upgrading the ASEAN Secretariat, creating more binding dispute settlement mechanisms, and improving the implementation of regional frameworks. Proactive external engagement – especially with emerging powers, such as the GCC, and reinforcing ASEAN centrality in larger fora like the East Asia Summit. Vision 2045 is not a mere wish list. It builds upon the Hanoi Declaration (2020), Labuan Bajo Statement (2023) and the Vientiane Strategic Plan (2024). With Malaysia at the helm in 2025, the vision gains additional traction through Kuala Lumpur's technocratic rigor and Anwar Ibrahim's moral authority as a regional elder statesman. Of course, visions without execution are hallucinations. The challenge ahead is to translate these long-term ambitions into actionable strategies. The next few years will be crucial. First, ASEAN will need to finalize the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) and integrate it with GCC digital governance standards—no small feat given the wide variations in data protection laws and digital infrastructure across the three regions. Second, the industrial cooperation plans require political will and institutional capacity. While Chinese financing is ample and Gulf sovereign wealth funds are liquid, the on-ground realities in some ASEAN states—including land acquisition, corruption and bureaucratic inertia—can derail even the most ambitious projects. Third, all parties will need to navigate the increasingly delicate geopolitical terrain. While the summit stressed that 'no side is being taken,' the optics of GCC and Chinese leaders standing together under the ASEAN banner could trigger anxieties in Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo. Defensive signaling—whether through naval exercises, tariff regimes or investment restrictions—is not inconceivable. To pre-empt this, ASEAN must reinforce its position as a convenor, not a competitor. Malaysia's leadership in proposing an ASEAN-US Special Summit, free from preconditions, is a step in the right direction. If successful, it will help offset suspicions that ASEAN is drifting into a China-led orbit. What makes this trilateral platform unique is its underlying civilizational approach. ASEAN represents a model of pluralistic coexistence and flexible institutionalism. The GCC, despite internal differences, offers resource wealth and religious significance. China, with its Confucian legacy and economic clout, brings scale and technological ambition. Together, these regions can forge a model of cooperation distinct from the Atlanticist framework, one that privileges consensus over coercion, trade over tariffs and resilience over rivalry. However, none of this is guaranteed. The structural weaknesses are real and glaring. Intra-ASEAN trade is still below 25%. The GCC is facing generational transitions and potential instability in oil prices. China's domestic economy is rebalancing under stress. But in aligning their trajectories, these regions signal that interdependence is still possible in an era of decoupling. The upcoming East Asia Summit in October 2025, also to be held in Kuala Lumpur, will be a key test. It offers an opportunity to link this trilateral vision with the broader Indo-Pacific community. More importantly, it could set the stage for embedding these civilizational dialogues into permanent economic institutions. The ASEAN-GCC-China Summit is not a full circle yet. It is the beginning of a spiral—open-ended, evolving and fraught with uncertainties. But it is also a reminder that amid the cacophony of conflict and competition, quiet diplomacy, anchored in historical awareness and mutual respect, can still illuminate the path forward. Phar Kim Beng, (PhD) is professor of ASEAN Studies, International Islamic University Malaysia and senior visiting fellow, Homerton College University of Cambridge Luthfy Hamza is senior research fellow, Institute of Internationalization and ASEAN Studies
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gulf states, China take centre stage at summit of Southeast Asian nations
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) agreed to 'chart a unified and collective path towards a peaceful, prosperous, and just future', following their meeting in the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur. In a world roiled by United States President Donald Trump's threats of crippling tariffs and rising economic uncertainties, alternative centres of global power were on full display, with the GCC and China attending the ASEAN summit for the group's inaugural trilateral meeting on Tuesday. In their joint statement released on Wednesday, the GCC – comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – China, and ASEAN members Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar said they were committed to enhancing economic cooperation. Chief among that cooperation will be the promotion of free trade, the signatories said, adding they looked 'forward to the early completion of the GCC-China Free Trade Agreement negotiations' and the upgrading of the ASEAN-China free trade area. 'We reaffirm our collective resolve to work hand in hand to unleash the full potential of our partnership, and ensure that our cooperation translates into tangible benefits for our peoples and societies,' they said. Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim – whose country is currently chair of ASEAN and hosted the summits – told a news conference that the US remains an important market while also noting that ASEAN, the GCC, and China collectively represent a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $24.87 trillion with a total population of about 2.15 billion. 'This collective scale offers vast opportunities to synergise our markets, deepen innovation, and promote cross-regional investment,' Anwar said. The prime minister went on to dismiss suggestions that the ASEAN bloc of nations was leaning excessively towards China, stressing that the regional grouping remained committed to maintaining balanced engagement with all major powers, including the US. James Chin, professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania in Australia, told Al Jazeera that the tripartite meeting was particularly important for China, which is being 'given a platform where the US is not around'. ASEAN and the GCC 'already view China as a global power', Chin said. China's Premier Li Qiang, who attended the summit, said Beijing was ready to work with the GCC and ASEAN 'on the basis of mutual respect and equality'. China will work with 'ASEAN and the GCC to strengthen the alignment of development strategies, increase macro policy coordination, and deepen collaboration on industrial specialisation,' he said. Former Malaysian ambassador to the US Mohamed Nazri bin Abdul Aziz said China was 'quickly filling up the vacuum' in global leadership felt in many countries in the aftermath of Trump's tariff threats. The economic future looks bright, Nazri said, for ASEAN, China and the Gulf countries, where economies are experiencing high growth rates while the US and European Union face stagnation. 'The Gulf is very rich, ASEAN is a tiger, China… I cannot even imagine where the future lies,' Nazri said. Jaideep Singh, an analyst with the Institute of Strategic & International Studies in Malaysia, said ASEAN's trade with GCC countries has been experiencing rapid growth. Total trade between ASEAN and the Gulf countries stood at some $63bn as of 2024, making GCC the fifth-largest external trading partner of the regional bloc, while Malaysia's trade with the GCC grew by 60 percent from 2019 to 2024. In terms of foreign direct investment, FDI from GCC countries in ASEAN totalled some $5bn as of 2023, of which $1.5bn went to Malaysia alone, Singh said. However, the US, China, Singapore and the EU still make up the lion's share of FDI in Malaysian manufacturing and as China's trade with ASEAN grows, economist say, the US still remains a huge market for regional countries. In early 2024, the US took over China as ASEAN's largest export market, with 15 percent of the bloc's exports destined for its markets, up nearly 4 percent since 2018, said Carmelo Ferlito, CEO of the Center for Market Education (CME), a think tank based in Malaysia and Indonesia. 'The US is also the largest source of cumulative foreign direct investment in ASEAN, with total stock reaching nearly $480bn in 2023 – almost double the combined US investments in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan,' Ferlito said. Israel's war on Gaza was also highlighted at the ASEAN-GCC-China meeting on Tuesday. Delegates condemned attacks against civilians and called for a durable ceasefire and unhindered delivery of fuel, food, essential services, and medicine throughout the Palestinian territory. Supporting a two-state solution to the conflict, the joint communique also called for the release of captives and arbitrarily-detained people, and an end to the 'illegal presence of the State of Israel in the occupied Palestinian territory as soon as possible'. The civil war in Myanmar was also a focus of the talks among ASEAN members at their summit on Tuesday, who called for an extension and expansion of a ceasefire among the warring sides, which was declared following the earthquake that struck the country in March. The ceasefire is due to run out by the end of May. However, human rights groups have documented repeated air attacks by the military regime on the country's civilian population despite the purported temporary cessation of fighting. Zachary Abuza, professor of Southeast Asia politics and security issues at the Washington-based National War College, said that while Prime Minister Anwar may be 'more proactive' – in his role as ASEAN chair – in wanting to resolve the conflict, Myanmar's military rulers were 'not a good faith actor' in peace talks. 'The military has absolutely no interest in anything resembling a power-sharing agreement,' he said.
