Latest news with #GFS


The Citizen
9 hours ago
- Climate
- The Citizen
Snow expected in most of SA's provinces over the weekend
Snow expected in most of SA's provinces over the weekend Eight out of nine provinces in South Africa are expected to experience snow over the weekend and into next week. Pretoria Rekord reports that, according to Vox Weather forecaster Michelle du Plessis, the strong cold front will arrive in the Cape early on Saturday morning, bringing heavy rain to the western parts of the Western Cape, as well as cold, wet and windy weather across much of the Cape provinces. 'This front is supported by a strong upper-air trough, helping to deepen the system. 'Then on Monday, a cut-off low-pressure system is expected to develop behind the front, with freezing levels dropping significantly across the country and snow expected to fall in eight of South Africa's nine provinces.' Du Plessis says the first light snow is expected late on Saturday and overnight into Sunday morning around the Cederberg mountains in the Western Cape, as well as the Nuweveld and Roggeveld mountains in the Northern Cape. Heavier snow is already likely by this stage in Lesotho. Here is what to expect on these days in terms of snowfall: Sunday: June 8 Light snow will spread over the high-lying regions in the Karoo — including around Loxton, Nieu-Bethesda and Noupoort. Du Plessis adds that all models indicate the likelihood of snow over the northern highlands of the Eastern Cape, but they differ in their expected snowfall amounts. 'The GFS model suggests heavier snow, while the ECMWF shows significantly less. More snow is likely in Lesotho.' Monday: June 9: As the cut-off low continues to develop and freezing levels drop further, light snow remains a possibility over the southern parts of Gauteng and the southern Highveld of Mpumalanga. However, she adds that at this stage, only the ECMWF model is showing snowfall over Gauteng and the Highveld of Mpumalanga. 'As we've seen many times before, cut-off lows are unpredictable, and the forecast can change quickly from day to day. 'This means snowfall over Gauteng and nearby areas is still highly uncertain, and it may disappear from the forecast entirely or shift to a chance of freezing rain instead.' Furthermore, Du Plessis says more snow is expected in Lesotho and in regions bordering Lesotho (Free State, KZN and the Southern Drakensberg), with heavy snow likely over the mountains in the western parts of KZN. 'A very light dusting of snow is possible over the eastern regions of the Free State.' Provinces where snow is expected or possible: Western Cape` Cederberg mountains (light snow Saturday night into Sunday) Northern Cape Nuweveld and Roggeveld mountains (light snow late Saturday into Sunday) Karoo highlands around Loxton Eastern Cape Barkly East, Southern Drakensberg, Nieu-Bethesda, Noupoort (light to heavy snow likely) Free State Eastern regions (very light dusting possible) Areas bordering Lesotho KZN Underberg and western mountainous areas (heavy snow expected) Gauteng Southern parts (light snow possible Monday – model-dependent and uncertain) Mpumalanga Southern Highveld (light snow possible Monday – also model-dependent) Lesotho (not in South Africa but included in the context) Heavy snow expected around Sani Pass and high mountains Provinces not expected to see snow: Limpopo: No snow mentioned or expected in this province. Breaking news at your fingertips… Follow Caxton Network News on Facebook and join our WhatsApp channel. Nuus wat saakmaak. Volg Caxton Netwerk-nuus op Facebook en sluit aan by ons WhatsApp-kanaal. Read original story on At Caxton, we employ humans to generate daily fresh news, not AI intervention. Happy reading!


The Citizen
12 hours ago
- Climate
- The Citizen
Snow expected in most of SA's provinces
Snow expected in most of SA's provinces – latest update Eight out of nine provinces in South Africa are expected to experience snow over the weekend and into next week. Vox Weather forecaster Michelle du Plessis, the strong cold front will arrive in the Cape early on Saturday morning, bringing heavy rain to the western parts of the Western Cape, as well as cold, wet, and windy weather across much of the Cape Provinces. 'This front is supported by a strong upper-air trough, helping to deepen the system. 'Then on Monday, a cut-off low-pressure system is expected to develop behind the front, with freezing levels dropping significantly across the country and snow expected to fall in eight of South Africa's nine provinces.' Du Plessis said the first light snow is expected late on Saturday and overnight into Sunday morning around the Cederberg mountains in the Western Cape, as well as the Nuweveld and Roggeveld mountains in the Northern Cape. Heavier snow is already likely by this stage in Lesotho. Here is what to expect on these days in terms of snowfall: Sunday: June 8 Light snow will spread over the high-lying regions in the Karoo — including around Loxton, Nieu-Bethesda, Noupoort. Du Plessis added that all models indicate the likelihood of snow over the northern highlands of the Eastern Cape, but they differ in their expected snowfall amounts. 'The GFS model suggests heavier snow, while the ECMWF shows significantly less. More snow is likely in Lesotho.' Monday June 9: As the cut-off low continues to develop and freezing levels drop further, light snow remains a possibility over the southern parts of Gauteng and the southern Highveld of Mpumalanga. However, she added that at this stage, only the ECMWF model is showing snowfall over Gauteng and the Highveld of Mpumalanga. 'As we've seen many times before, cut-off lows are unpredictable, and the forecast can change quickly from day to day. 'This means snowfall over Gauteng and nearby areas is still highly uncertain, and it may disappear from the forecast entirely or shift to a chance of freezing rain instead.' Furthermore, Du Plessis said more snow is expected in Lesotho and in regions bordering Lesotho (Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Southern Drakensberg), with heavy snow likely over the mountains in the western parts of KwaZulu-Natal. 'A very light dusting of snow is possible over the eastern regions of the Free State.' Provinces where snow is expected or possible: Western Cape` Cederberg mountains (light snow Saturday night into Sunday) Northern Cape Nuweveld and Roggeveld mountains (light snow late Saturday into Sunday) Karoo highlands around Loxton Eastern Cape Barkly East, Southern Drakensberg, Nieu-Bethesda, Noupoort (light to heavy snow likely) Free State Eastern regions (very light dusting possible) Areas bordering Lesotho KwaZulu-Natal Underberg and western mountainous areas (heavy snow expected) Gauteng Southern parts (light snow possible Monday – model-dependent and uncertain) Mpumalanga Southern Highveld (light snow possible Monday – also model-dependent) Lesotho (not a South African province but included in the context) Heavy snow expected around Sani Pass and high mountains Province NOT expected to see snow: Limpopo – No snow mentioned or expected in this province. Also read: Snow expected in Gauteng next week Do you have more information about the story? Please send us an email to bennittb@ or phone us on 083 625 4114. For free breaking and community news, visit Rekord's websites: Rekord East For more news and interesting articles, like Rekord on Facebook, follow us on Twitter or Instagram or TikTok. At Caxton, we employ humans to generate daily fresh news, not AI intervention. Happy reading!
Yahoo
a day ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Something brewing in the Caribbean? Meteorologists say it's social media hype
TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — You may have seen it on social media: eye-catching graphics of GFS model projections featuring a monster hurricane headed straight for the Gulf coast. Some accounts posted about this hypothetical storm weeks in advance, stoking anxiety in a hurricane-weary region of the country. What to expect during the 2025 hurricane season | Tracking the Tropics On Tuesday's edition of Tracking the Tropics, our team of meteorologists addressed those concerns and issued a warning to social media users who encounter these long-range projections online: Don't buy into the hype. 'Especially coming off of such a terrible season for Florida, where so many folks are going to be recovering for the next couple of years, there's just a heightened sense of anxiety. Storm anxiety is a real thing,' WKRG Chief Meteorologist Ed Bloodsworth said. 'Nerves are just heightened now. Folks are trying to rebuild their lives, get back to what will be their new normal. The last thing you want to do is scare them with nonsense. That's why you want to trust your local meteorologists.' Long-range models, like the GFS, often spin up phantom storms that don't come to fruition. These projections have low confidence more than a few days out. 'No, we're not going to see a Category 4 hurricane in 10 days in the Gulf. That's just not going to happen,' Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Rebecca Barry said. 'The confidence is so low. It's not even worth worrying about at this point.' The social media graphics and video thumbnails may look official, but our team of meteorologists says you should listen to the experts – not influencers who rely on clicks and follows. 'I get paid whether I post anything on Facebook or not. I get paid to do my job as a meteorologist,' Barry said. 'There are a lot of people on social media that are getting paid through social media, so if they don't post something that gets a lot of likes, shares and interactions, they don't get paid that day. That leads them to make different decisions than I would on social media. Some of them I would consider not the best decisions.' Barry's advice? Look at everything on social media with a critical eye. 'I just want people to think about who they follow on social media. Think before you share one of those posts,' Barry said. 'What are the motives? If the confidence is that low, it doesn't deserve any space in your brain or in your day.'Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Bryan Norcross: Welcome to hurricane season 2025
Welcome to hurricane season 2025. There are no signs of tropical development across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf for the next week, at least. Even the long-range forecasts show low odds of something developing in the western Caribbean or southwestern Gulf, but that possibility is well into the very slight chance category. On social media, you might see posts of a storm the American GFS computer model wants to spin up in the Caribbean or Gulf, but 1) this is a known bias of the GFS at this time of year, and 2) none of the other models, including the latest AI models, show any significant signal for development. So we're ignoring the GFS at this point. An important takeaway from this early-season lull, however, is that it doesn't mean anything about what will happen in the heart of the hurricane season. The water in the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf is plenty warm – significantly warmer than average. So if the weather pattern configures itself in a way that's conducive for development, we'll get a system. But right now, there's no sign of that happening. Tropical Storm Alvin developed in the Eastern Pacific last week, of course. It spun up over the very warm pocket of water just offshore of southern Mexico. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season starts on May 15 because conditions there quite often become conducive for development earlier than in the Atlantic. Alvin is now history. There is a decent chance that another system might form offshore of Mexico in the next several days. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Barbara. One of the most common mechanisms for developing an early-season system is a broad area of low pressure that tends to show up this time of year over Central America. Its technical name is the Central American Gyre, a gyre being a large rotating system. The northern edge of the broad low circulates across the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf, while the southern part of the system reaches into the Eastern Pacific. If the weather pattern is conducive, a disturbance can emanate from the large parent gyre. So far, that mechanism looks most likely to generate systems in the Pacific – at least for a while. The tropical Atlantic between the Caribbean and Africa is covered in Saharan dust, and the ocean water is quite cool. So there's nothing to look at there for now. Interestingly, Mother Nature has not produced strong storms anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere (north of the equator all around the world) so far this season. That's unusual. It's not clear what that means, or if it means anything for our hurricane season. It's just an interesting observation at this point. The El Niño/La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific is in a neutral phase. This means that if things don't change, it will neither suppress nor hype Atlantic hurricane activity. How many storms develop and where they go are much more dependent on the daily or weekly weather pattern that develops over the Atlantic during the season than any long-range forcing from the Pacific. Some neutral years are quite busy, while others are unusually quiet. Noaa scientists say there's about a 40% chance that La Niña will return before the end of the hurricane season, however. La Niñas tends to create an atmospheric pattern over the Atlantic that is more conducive to storm development. That means that the second half of the season might be busier than the first, but we'll see. We've had enough hurricanes lately that nobody from Texas to Maine should dismiss the possibility of having to deal with a hurricane or its remnants. As we saw last year, folks who live well inland need to have a plan to take care of themselves if a dangerous or disruptive storm comes their way. Early action is always better than scrambling at the last minute, so thinking and planning are more than appropriate right now. Talk to your friends and family. Now is the time to make a plan. As I have said for years, living along the coast means living with hurricanes. There is nothing to do but to be prepared, and 2024 reminded us that "the coast" includes areas well away from the water. Good luck this season. But a key lesson I've learned over many years is that people tend to make their own luck when it comes to article source: Bryan Norcross: Welcome to hurricane season 2025


Daily Mirror
7 days ago
- Climate
- Daily Mirror
New maps turn red as 28C blast brings blistering sizzler to Britain
Britain's first proper heat blast of the year has been pinpointed and large swathes of the country could see 28C highs by the start of June Brits should expect what could be the first heatwave of the year in a matter of days, new weather maps show. The entire eastern coast of England looks set to be hit with a blistering 28C heatwave by June 11, with southern coastlines and the south-west seeing a noticeable 6-7C drop. Currently, it looks set to last until June 12 when temperatures start to simmer down. Jim Dale, a climate spokesman and founder of British Weather Services confirmed hotter changes are afoot, but they will be gradual as June arrives. He told the Mirror: "It's not going to be so hot so quickly but there are solid signs after the first week of June, when if things map out as now, we can expect 30C plus on the cards." In the Met Office's long-range weather forecast from June 11 to June 25, the forecaster doesn't rule out a hot spell, but cautions thunderstorms as a result of a climbing, and humid, mercury. It says: "Changeable weather across the UK with a mixture of Atlantic weather systems moving in from the west interspersed with dry and sunny periods. Wetter conditions tending to be towards the northwest of the UK, with the south and southeast likely to see more in the way of dry weather. "Temperatures are most likely to be near or slightly above normal, perhaps with some hot spells at times, especially across the south. Any hot spells may be accompanied by an increased chance of thunderstorms though." What do weather maps show? From this weekend the nation's fortunes will begin to change with 20C highs remaining stable next week. By Saturday, June 7, this will increase by a degree in the south-east, and it'll be the second week of June when the mercury ramps up considerably. By Tuesday, June 10 much of London, Kent and Essex will see the bulk of the heat arriving - with 25C to 26C bringing strong UV rays for many. This will be more like 24C in the north with cities such as Leeds and Newcastle seeing such temperatures. By Wednesday maps turn dark red - indicating a widespread 28C blanket to cover much of the country, including northern cities, towns and villages. However, current GFS maps show the heat could start to fade by the Friday. In the UK, a heatwave is confirmed if hot weather exceeding a specific temperature remains consistent for three days. For much of England, Wales and Scotland this is 25C, according to the Met Office. Surrey, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire and Cambridgeshire, along with central London need to record 28C highs for three days in a row for a heatwave to be declared.