Latest news with #GarethAird
Sky News AU
16-05-2025
- Business
- Sky News AU
Commonwealth Bank of Australia still 'on alert' over prices despite declaring 'inflation dragon has been slayed'
Commonwealth Bank of Australia's head of Australian economics Gareth Aird has admitted the bank is still 'on alert' over prices despite declaring 'the proverbial inflation dragon has been slayed' on Friday. Trimmed mean inflation – the middle 70 per cent of price changes core to the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates decision – fell within the central bank's 2-3 per cent target band in the March quarter for the first time since 2021. Mr Aird said this will come as welcome news for the RBA as it looks to deliver mortgage holders their second dose of financial relief this year. 'It means that lingering upside inflation risks to the RBA's forecast did not materialise and that will give the Board more confidence that the inflation 'fight' is being won,' he said. 'Our view is that the proverbial inflation dragon has been slayed." Despite this, Mr Aird later softened his stance, telling Sky News the major bank remained somewhat cautious about inflation. 'I guess we're on alert, but we look at the data, and if you look at last six months of inflation data, in terms of the quarterly numbers you had a 0.5 per cent increase on the trimmed mean and a 0.7 per cent (increase),' he said, referring to the December and March quarterly inflation respectively. 'So, if you take the six-month annualised rate - which is basically annualising those two numbers - you're at 2.5 per cent, which is smack bang in the middle of the RBA's (Reserve Bank of Australia) target band.' He also touched on the strong wages data released during the week, which showed Aussies received an average pay rise of 3.4 per cent in the year to March. This was above both the annual trimmed mean inflation rate (2.9 per cent) and headline rate (2.4 per cent). 'The wages data on Wednesday was a little bit firmer than we expected, but it was in line with what the RBA had forecast,' Mr Aird said. 'If you look at detail there, the strength in the wages number was really coming through some administered growth in terms of childcare and public sector. 'But if you look at the private side, those negotiating wages on an individual basis, you've seen quite a softening there.' Mr Aird's comments come ahead of the RBA's cash rate call next week, with the chance of a 0.25 per cent rate cut very high. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35 per cent for more than a year as post-pandemic inflation slowly cooled. That pause followed the RBA hiking rates 13 times from May 2022, over the period of about a year and a half, to stamp out soaring price pressures.
Business Recorder
16-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, NZ dollars steady after seesaw week, rate cuts loom
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were flat on Friday after a seesaw week that saw them spike on a US-China tariff truce only to run into selling at major chart barriers, reinforcing recent ranges. The Aussie steadied at $0.6405, having bounced from a $0.6358 low early in the week to as high as $0.6501 before fading away. A break of $0.6350 or $0.6515 is needed to set a new trend in motion. The kiwi dollar was a shade softer at $0.5866, and well short of the week's top of $0.5969. Major support lies at $0.5845 and a breach could see a retracement to $0.5760. The Aussie failed to get any lasting lift from Thursday's upbeat jobs report, in large part because markets remain confident the Reserve Bank of Australia will still cut interest rates when it meets on May 20. Markets are 100% priced for a quarter-point cut in the 4.10% cash rate, while 42 of 43 economists in a Reuters poll expected the same. Analysts also assume the RBA will remain guarded about any future easing. 'The RBA's communication strategy has largely erred on the side of caution, and we do not expect the Board to provide any forward guidance on the likely timing of further rate cuts,' said Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA. 'We continue to favour the RBA cutting rates at a quarterly cadence of 25bp through 2025,' he added. 'But we are cognisant of the risk that the RBA moves a little more quickly to a neutral rate around 3.35% if the trend unemployment rate steps up in a non-trivial way.' Investors have scaled back how far rates might fall this year to 75 basis points, from more than 100 basis points a couple of weeks ago. Australia, New Zealand dollars maintain strong gains as global economy outlook brightens Adam Boyton, head of Australian economics at ANZ, expects cuts in May and August, but is no longer looking at an easing in July since progress in US-China tariff talks has lessened the risk of a global economic shock. Markets also expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its 3.5% cash rate by a quarter point when it meets on May 28. The central bank is far ahead of the RBA, reflecting a much weaker domestic economy, having already eased by 200 basis points. Investors suspect it might nearly be done, with rates seen bottoming at 3.0%.
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Commonwealth Bank makes major RBA interest rate call: 'Fight is being won'
Australia's biggest bank has declared the fight against inflation has been won. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) is tipping the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates on Tuesday and "leave the door ajar" for another rate cut in July. CBA head of Australian economics Gareth Aird expects the central bank will cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent on Tuesday. It comes after the RBA left the cash rate on hold in April, with a cut not explicitly considered. 'It is an understatement to say that a lot has happened since the April Board meeting,' Aird said. 'US trade policy has been erratic. And this has led to significant uncertainty around the global economic outlook.' RELATED Commonwealth Bank boss pours cold water on supersized $181 RBA interest rate cut Dad with no savings reveals surprising money message for struggling Aussies: 'Living pay to pay' Centrelink issues urgent Age Pension eligibility change warning: 'Double check'Aird thinks the RBA will acknowledge this but will place more weight on Australian data, which has been broadly tracking in line with the central bank's forecasts. Australia's inflation rate rose 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of the year, with the annual rate holding firm at 2.4 per cent. Underlying inflation, the RBA's preferred measure, increased by 0.7 per cent, with the annual rate easing to 2.9 per cent. Aird said these figures will give the RBA more confidence that the 'inflation 'fight' is being won'. 'Our view is that the proverbial inflation dragon has been slayed,' Aird said. "But we are not convinced the RBA will share that view just yet given the unemployment rate is still below the RBA's estimate of the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment)." Wages grew by 0.9 per cent in the March quarter, with the annual rate increasing to 3.4 per cent, which was a bit stronger than expected. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1 per cent for April, but 89,000 more Australians were in jobs than the month before, which was also more than economists expected. Markets are also "fully priced in" for a standard 25 basis point cut on Tuesday. Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA will cut the cash rate again in August and November, but said the RBA would likely "leave the door ajar" for a July cut by simply not providing any forward guidance. "Its communication strategy on Tuesday will not lock the RBA into a preset path," Aird said. "That will leave the door ajar for back-to-back 25 basis point rate cuts if the domestic data makes the case or the global situation deteriorates more materially." All Big Four banks are expecting interest rates will be cut in May. Westpac and ANZ think there will be a standard 25 basis point cut, while NAB is sticking to its call that a supersized 50 basis point cut is on the cards. Economist Sally Auld said the RBA's current monetary policy is "too restrictive" and it needs to "catch up" with recent global developments. Here's what they are forecasting for the rest of the cycle: CBA - Three cuts in May, August and November to bring end of year cash rate to 3.35 per cent Westpac - Three cuts in May, August and November to bring cash rate to 3.35 per cent NAB - Five cuts in May, July, August, November, and February to take cash rate to 2.60 per cent ANZ - Three cuts in May, July and August to bring cash rate to 3.35 per centError while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data
News.com.au
16-05-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
‘Slayed the dragon': CBA says Australia has beaten inflation, tips more rate cuts
Australia's biggest bank believes the battle against inflation has been won, tipping mortgage holders to get back-to-back rate cuts. Despite national inflation figures coming in hotter than expected and a surge in Aussies employed in April, a Commonwealth Bank economist is 'confident' the RBA will cut interest rates in May before leaving the 'door ajar' for a second rate cut in July. 'We expected the RBA to commence normalising the cash rate in February with a 25bp rate cut, which was delivered, and we also forecast another 25bp rate decrease in May,' CBA head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said in an economic note. 'Recall that the RBA left the cash rate on hold in April, and a rate cut was not explicitly discussed. But it is an understatement to say that a lot has happened since the April board meeting.' CBA's rate cut call is largely in line with most experts and the money markets forecast, which is pricing in about a 95 per cent chance of a 25 basis point cut in May. If Mr Aird is right in his prediction, the Australian cash rate would fall from 4.10 to 3.85 per cent. The RBA will next meet on May 19-20 when it is widely predicted to cut rates by at least 25 basis points before meeting every six weeks throughout 2025. Even though the RBA will likely leave the 'door ajar' for back-to-back rate cuts when the central bank meets again in July, CBA says its base case is cuts in May, August and November. 'The CBA call for an end-of-year cash rate of 3.35 per cent is also unchanged,' Mr Aird said. CBA's call to normalise rates comes as the bank believes Australia has beaten inflation, even with 89,000 Australians finding a job and stronger-than-expected wage growth data coming out in April. Both are usually a sign of inflation due to more Australians having money to spend in the economy chasing a similar amount of goods. 'Our view is that the proverbial inflation dragon has been slayed,' Mr Aird said. 'But we are not convinced the RBA will share that view just yet given the unemployment rate is still below the RBA's estimate of the NAIRU (nonâ€'accelerating inflation rate of unemployment).' Treasurer Jim Chalmers said throughout the week that the strong wage and employment data was in line with Australia's soft landing, which is a slowing down of economic activity without causing a recession. 'Real wages reflect the progress we've made together on wages but also the progress we've made together on inflation,' Mr Chalmers said. 'We've got wages growing and we've got inflation falling and those are really the key elements of this soft landing that we have been engineering in our economy at a time of really substantial global economic uncertainty.' CBA agreed, saying the 'soft landing has been achieved'. 'And this will mean the RBA can continue to normalise the cash rate as we move through 2025 to a level it considers to be a more neutral setting,' Mr Aird said. 'The Reserve Bank of Australia will look past the strength in employment, wages data and cut rates when they meet on May 20.'
West Australian
16-05-2025
- Business
- West Australian
‘Slayed the dragon': CBA says Australia has beaten inflation, tips more rate cuts
Australia's biggest bank believes the battle against inflation has been won, tipping mortgage holders to get back-to-back rate cuts. Despite national inflation figures coming in hotter than expected and a surge in Aussies employed in April, a Commonwealth Bank economist is 'confident' the RBA will cut interest rates in May before leaving the 'door ajar' for a second rate cut in July. 'We expected the RBA to commence normalising the cash rate in February with a 25bp rate cut, which was delivered, and we also forecast another 25bp rate decrease in May,' CBA head of Australian economics Gareth Aird said in an economic note. 'Recall that the RBA left the cash rate on hold in April, and a rate cut was not explicitly discussed. But it is an understatement to say that a lot has happened since the April board meeting.' CBA's rate cut call is largely in line with most experts and the money markets forecast, which is pricing in about a 95 per cent chance of a 25 basis point cut in May. If Mr Aird is right in his prediction, the Australian cash rate would fall from 4.10 to 3.85 per cent. Australia's Cash Rate 2022 The RBA will next meet on May 19-20 when it is widely predicted to cut rates by at least 25 basis points before meeting every six weeks throughout 2025. Even though the RBA will likely leave the 'door ajar' for back-to-back rate cuts when the central bank meets again in July, CBA says its base case is cuts in May, August and November. 'The CBA call for an end-of-year cash rate of 3.35 per cent is also unchanged,' Mr Aird said. CBA's call to normalise rates comes as the bank believes Australia has beaten inflation, even with 89,000 Australians finding a job and stronger-than-expected wage growth data coming out in April. Both are usually a sign of inflation due to more Australians having money to spend in the economy chasing a similar amount of goods. 'Our view is that the proverbial inflation dragon has been slayed,' Mr Aird said. 'But we are not convinced the RBA will share that view just yet given the unemployment rate is still below the RBA's estimate of the NAIRU (non‑accelerating inflation rate of unemployment).' Treasurer Jim Chalmers said throughout the week that the strong wage and employment data was in line with Australia's soft landing, which is a slowing down of economic activity without causing a recession. 'Real wages reflect the progress we've made together on wages but also the progress we've made together on inflation,' Mr Chalmers said. 'We've got wages growing and we've got inflation falling and those are really the key elements of this soft landing that we have been engineering in our economy at a time of really substantial global economic uncertainty.' CBA agreed, saying the 'soft landing has been achieved'. 'And this will mean the RBA can continue to normalise the cash rate as we move through 2025 to a level it considers to be a more neutral setting,' Mr Aird said. 'The Reserve Bank of Australia will look past the strength in employment, wages data and cut rates when they meet on May 20.'
