Latest news with #GarethKiernan
1News
19-05-2025
- Business
- 1News
Holiday planning? Here's where your dollar might go further
New Zealand's dollar has become a little stronger against the US in the past month - but if you're looking for a holiday where you can make the most of the exchange rate, that's not the part of the world to be looking in. The NZD has been worth as much as US$0.60 in recent weeks. But based on historical performance, it remains weak. Data from Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan showed, at an exchange rate of one dollar buying US58c, the dollar is 12% down on the USD's average exchange rate of the last 10 years and down 17% over 20 years. It's down 12% against the euro over the 10-year period, and against the British pound. But there are parts of the world where the New Zealand dollar is going further than normal at present. Travelling to Australia isn't so bad. The dollar is down 1% compared to the average of the last 10 years, but up 4% over the last 20 years and 5% over the last 30. On a 10-year average basis, the dollar is also up against the Japanese yen, up 9%, Indian rupee, up 3%, Indonesian rupiah, up 2%, and South Korean won, up 4%. It is up 30% compared to a 30-year average for the Indian rupee, 20% for the Japanese yen and 41% for Indonesia. Kiernan said the fact that the strength was limited to a smaller group of countries was due to a few factors. "New Zealand's growth performance over the last couple of years, plus immediate prospects, remain relatively poor, so international investors are looking at other places to put their money where the expected returns might be better. "Secondly, there's a high level of risk aversion and uncertainty at the moment, which typically count against New Zealand as well," he said. "The latter factor might not be helped by our fiscal position, with negative comments from credit ratings agencies last year and close attention being paid to the track back towards balancing the books at next week's Budget. "Our government debt levels might not be as high as many other countries, but we tend to get held to a higher standard because we're relatively small, which adds to the perception of risk." David Coombes, chief executive of House of Travel, said there had been a slight softening in bookings to the US in the last few weeks, and the dollar could be playing a part in that. "Our stores across the country are saying that the current exchange rate, with the New Zealand dollar weaker against the US, is influencing customer destination choices, with many looking to places where their money goes further on the ground." A report from Mastercard analysed exchange rate movements and the number of tourist arrivals from 2000 to 2024 across 24 tourism markets to determine how much of an impact currency movements could have. Across six tourism destinations - Japan, US, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland - it estimated the change in the number of tourists arriving when the currency dropped 1%. It found the biggest impact was for travel from China to Japan - a 1% depreciation of yen against the renminbi was associated with a 1.5% increase in tourists to Japan. New Zealand visitor numbers only lifted 0.2% in response to the same degree of depreciation and were also less responsive to changes in the USD. "Travellers from Asia tend to be more sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations, as such movements can significantly impact their purchasing power during international travel - an important factor in their outbound travel planning. "In comparison, the long distances between New Zealand and most travel destinations mean that New Zealand travellers may not be able to easily alter their travel decisions based on changing foreign exchange conditions. "Additionally, travellers from more developed markets are generally more influenced by local economic conditions than by FX changes." The Mastercard analysts said the dollar would need to shift by 10% or 15% against another currency to have an impact on travel decisions.
Scoop
18-05-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Planning A Holiday? Here's Where Your Dollar Might Go Further Than Normal
Article – RNZ New Zealand's dollar has become a little stronger against the US in the past month – but if you're looking for a holiday where you can make the most of the exchange rate, that's not the part of the world to be looking in. Susan Edmunds, Money Correspondent New Zealand's dollar has become a little stronger against the US in the past month – but if you're looking for a holiday where you can make the most of the exchange rate, that's not the part of the world to be looking in. The NZD has been worth as much as US60c in recent weeks. But based on historical performance, it remains weak. Data from Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan showed, at an exchange rate of one dollar buying US58c, the dollar is 12 percent down on the USD's average exchange rate of the last 10 years and down 17 percent over 20 years. It's down 12 percent against the euro over the 10-year period, and against the British pound. But there are parts of the world where the New Zealand dollar is going further than normal at present. Travelling to Australia isn't so bad. The dollar is down 1 percent compared to the average of the last 10 years but up 4 percent over the last 20 years and 5 percent over the last 30. On a 10-year average basis, the dollar is also up against the Japanese yen, up 9 percent, Indian rupee, up 3 percent, Indonesian rupiah, up 2 percent, and South Korean won, up 4 percent. It is up 30 percent compared to a 30-year average for the Indian rupee, 20 percent for the Japanese yen and 41 percent for Indonesia. Kiernan said the fact that the strength was limited to a smaller group of countries was due to a few factors. 'New Zealand's growth performance over the last couple of years, plus immediate prospects, remain relatively poor, so international investors are looking at other places to put their money where the expected returns might be better. 'Secondly, there's a high level of risk aversion and uncertainty at the moment, which typically count against New Zealand as well,' he said. 'The latter factor might not be helped by our fiscal position, with negative comments from credit ratings agencies last year and close attention being paid to the track back towards balancing the books at next week's Budget. Our government debt levels might not be as high as many other countries, but we tend to get held to a higher standard because we're relatively small, which adds to the perception of risk.' David Coombes, chief executive of House of Travel, said there had been a slight softening in bookings to the US in the last few weeks, and the dollar could be playing a part in that. 'Our stores across the country are saying that the current exchange rate, with the New Zealand dollar weaker against the US, is influencing customer destination choices, with many looking to places where their money goes further on the ground.' A report from Mastercard analysed exchange rate movements and the number of tourist arrivals from 2000 to 2024 across 24 tourism markets to determine how much of an impact currency movements could have. Across six tourism destinations – Japan, US, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland – it estimated the change in the number of tourists arriving when the currency dropped 1 percent. It found the biggest impact was for travel from China to Japan – a 1 percent depreciation of yen against the renminbi was associated with a 1.5 percent increase in tourists to Japan. New Zealand visitor numbers only lifted 0.2 percent in response to the same degree of depreciation and were also less responsive to changes in the USD. 'Travellers from Asia tend to be more sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations, as such movements can significantly impact their purchasing power during international travel – an important factor in their outbound travel planning. 'In comparison, the long distances between New Zealand and most travel destinations mean that New Zealand travellers may not be able to easily alter their travel decisions based on changing foreign exchange conditions. Additionally, travellers from more developed markets are generally more influenced by local economic conditions than by FX changes.' The Mastercard analysts said the dollar would need to shift by 10 percent or 15 percent against another currency to have an impact on travel decisions.
Scoop
18-05-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Planning A Holiday? Here's Where Your Dollar Might Go Further Than Normal
, Money Correspondent New Zealand's dollar has become a little stronger against the US in the past month - but if you're looking for a holiday where you can make the most of the exchange rate, that's not the part of the world to be looking in. The NZD has been worth as much as US60c in recent weeks. But based on historical performance, it remains weak. Data from Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan showed, at an exchange rate of one dollar buying US58c, the dollar is 12 percent down on the USD's average exchange rate of the last 10 years and down 17 percent over 20 years. It's down 12 percent against the euro over the 10-year period, and against the British pound. But there are parts of the world where the New Zealand dollar is going further than normal at present. Travelling to Australia isn't so bad. The dollar is down 1 percent compared to the average of the last 10 years but up 4 percent over the last 20 years and 5 percent over the last 30. On a 10-year average basis, the dollar is also up against the Japanese yen, up 9 percent, Indian rupee, up 3 percent, Indonesian rupiah, up 2 percent, and South Korean won, up 4 percent. It is up 30 percent compared to a 30-year average for the Indian rupee, 20 percent for the Japanese yen and 41 percent for Indonesia. Kiernan said the fact that the strength was limited to a smaller group of countries was due to a few factors. "New Zealand's growth performance over the last couple of years, plus immediate prospects, remain relatively poor, so international investors are looking at other places to put their money where the expected returns might be better. "Secondly, there's a high level of risk aversion and uncertainty at the moment, which typically count against New Zealand as well," he said. "The latter factor might not be helped by our fiscal position, with negative comments from credit ratings agencies last year and close attention being paid to the track back towards balancing the books at next week's Budget. Our government debt levels might not be as high as many other countries, but we tend to get held to a higher standard because we're relatively small, which adds to the perception of risk." David Coombes, chief executive of House of Travel, said there had been a slight softening in bookings to the US in the last few weeks, and the dollar could be playing a part in that. "Our stores across the country are saying that the current exchange rate, with the New Zealand dollar weaker against the US, is influencing customer destination choices, with many looking to places where their money goes further on the ground." A report from Mastercard analysed exchange rate movements and the number of tourist arrivals from 2000 to 2024 across 24 tourism markets to determine how much of an impact currency movements could have. Across six tourism destinations - Japan, US, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland - it estimated the change in the number of tourists arriving when the currency dropped 1 percent. It found the biggest impact was for travel from China to Japan - a 1 percent depreciation of yen against the renminbi was associated with a 1.5 percent increase in tourists to Japan. New Zealand visitor numbers only lifted 0.2 percent in response to the same degree of depreciation and were also less responsive to changes in the USD. "Travellers from Asia tend to be more sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations, as such movements can significantly impact their purchasing power during international travel - an important factor in their outbound travel planning. "In comparison, the long distances between New Zealand and most travel destinations mean that New Zealand travellers may not be able to easily alter their travel decisions based on changing foreign exchange conditions. Additionally, travellers from more developed markets are generally more influenced by local economic conditions than by FX changes." The Mastercard analysts said the dollar would need to shift by 10 percent or 15 percent against another currency to have an impact on travel decisions.
NZ Herald
09-05-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
Butter prices soar to $8.50 amid global dairy surge
In Woolworths this week, home brand butter was selling for $8.49. The Global Dairy Trade auction price for butter has risen from US$6631/MT in December to US$7992 in the latest auction. A spokesperson for Woolworths said the supermarket was trying to keep butter prices as low as possible. 'With the recent rise in price, early trends are showing a minor reduction in the volume of butter purchased. The driving factors here consist of customers switching to dairy or table spreads, reducing their butter buying frequency, or ceasing purchases altogether. 'Market conditions have changed significantly in the last few months and international butter prices are now at record highs. While this is great news for our farmers, it does mean we have to pass on these increased prices to our customers, which is why we've changed the shelf price for butter products.' Gareth Kiernan, chief forecaster at Infometrics, said Woolworths' home brand butter had increased from $7.19 the last time he bought it, to its current price of just under $8.50. 'The strongest correlation appears to be about a four-month lag between GDT price movements and retail movements, so current butter prices at the supermarket might only reflect GDT pricing up to January. 'The GDT butter index (priced in USD) has risen another 16 percent since January, mitigated by a 6% recovery in the USD/NZD exchange rate, resulting in a rise of almost 10% in NZD terms. On that basis, further increases of another 50c to $1 per block look possible by September, taking prices for the supermarket brands to as high as $9.50.' ASB senior economist Mark Smith said it was to be expected consumers would reach the limit of what they were prepared to pay. 'The reason probably why also that the butter prices have been so high is that the dairy supply is being reasonably constrained in the European market. And it's contributing to what we're seeing here.' He said US tariffs could have an impact on the flow of dairy products around the world. 'We do send quite a lot of dairy products to the US, but they could well be diverted to other markets. 'So certainly dairy prices will be higher for US consumers. For New Zealand consumers, we could see the reverse if some product that was heading for the US actually headed elsewhere...' But he said demand for New Zealand product was likely to be strong given the country was an efficient producer, although overall tariffs would have a dampening effect. Smith said the increase could put pressure on inflation in the coming months. 'Unfortunately inflation as a whole looks like it's going to be picking up in the middle of this year and if anything will be pretty close to 3% ... which is pretty awkward for Reserve Bank that is trying to make sure the New Zealand economy doesn't unduly suffer, yet we've still got inflation remaining high.' He said there were enough signs that the labour market was still very soft and wage inflation cooling which would help, but it would be awkward for the Reserve Bank in the near term.
NZ Herald
09-05-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
Butter prices: Here's how much they might still rise
In Woolworths this week, home brand butter was selling for $8.49. The Global Dairy Trade auction price for butter has risen from US$6631/MT in December to US$7992 in the latest auction. A spokesperson for Woolworths said the supermarket was trying to keep butter prices as low as possible. 'With the recent rise in price, early trends are showing a minor reduction in the volume of butter purchased. The driving factors here consist of customers switching to dairy or table spreads, reducing their butter buying frequency, or ceasing purchases altogether. 'Market conditions have changed significantly in the last few months and international butter prices are now at record highs. While this is great news for our farmers, it does mean we have to pass on these increased prices to our customers, which is why we've changed the shelf price for butter products.' Gareth Kiernan, chief forecaster at Infometrics, said Woolworths' home brand butter had increased from $7.19 the last time he bought it, to its current price of just under $8.50. 'The strongest correlation appears to be about a four-month lag between GDT price movements and retail movements, so current butter prices at the supermarket might only reflect GDT pricing up to January. 'The GDT butter index (priced in USD) has risen another 16 percent since January, mitigated by a 6% recovery in the USD/NZD exchange rate, resulting in a rise of almost 10% in NZD terms. On that basis, further increases of another 50c to $1 per block look possible by September, taking prices for the supermarket brands to as high as $9.50.' ASB senior economist Mark Smith said it was to be expected consumers would reach the limit of what they were prepared to pay. 'The reason probably why also that the butter prices have been so high is that the dairy supply is being reasonably constrained in the European market. And it's contributing to what we're seeing here.' He said US tariffs could have an impact on the flow of dairy products around the world. 'We do send quite a lot of dairy products to the US, but they could well be diverted to other markets. 'So certainly dairy prices will be higher for US consumers. For New Zealand consumers, we could see the reverse if some product that was heading for the US actually headed elsewhere...' But he said demand for New Zealand product was likely to be strong given the country was an efficient producer, although overall tariffs would have a dampening effect. Smith said the increase could put pressure on inflation in the coming months. 'Unfortunately inflation as a whole looks like it's going to be picking up in the middle of this year and if anything will be pretty close to 3% ... which is pretty awkward for Reserve Bank that is trying to make sure the New Zealand economy doesn't unduly suffer, yet we've still got inflation remaining high.' He said there were enough signs that the labour market was still very soft and wage inflation cooling which would help, but it would be awkward for the Reserve Bank in the near term.
