Latest news with #GeneralGovernment
Mint
25-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Tale of two ends: What is the G-sec yield curve telling us?
The shape of the g-sec yield curve encapsulates the impact of monetary policy, government borrowing as well as market participants expectations. Its one a one stop report card for both policy as well as economy. So, what is the yield curve telling us in 2025? The curve has steepened to levels last seen in 2022-2021. The decline in yield has taken place in the short-end, driven by RBI rate-cutting cycle of 100bps. The ultra-long bond yields (20yr to 50yr) have hardly moved despite significant policy easing by RBI. The apathy at the long-end reflects three factors – rising concentration of supply of ultra long bonds, lack of market expectation of further rate cuts and weak insurance demand. In the first six months of 2025 (January to June), 32% share in the gross supply of centre and state government bonds was in the ultra-long end (20yr to 50yr). The rising concentration was driven by the need to extend the maturity profile of General Government debt and rising investor demand. However, the insurance sector demand has weakened recently with a sharp drop in premium growth. Lastly, the change in stance to neutral in the June policy has firmed expectations that the rate-cutting cycle could be over. Looking ahead, there could be some support to ultra-long bonds if the H2FY26 g-sec calendar is less concentrated. That said, the redemption pressure is significant over the next 6 years (FY27 to FY32) with g-sec plus SDL redemption ranging from INR10.2tn in FY27 to INR12.6tn in FY32. Hence, if the concentration in the ultra-long bond segment is to be reduced, it could be shifted only to the 15-year point. The Centre is also conducting more switches this year to reduce the redemption pressure over the next few years, which is adding supply to the belly of the curve. Short-end yields, which have seen a substantial reduction, got support from rate cuts by the RBI as well as liquidity infusion. Looking ahead, there is support from the RBI expected to cut policy rates by another 25bps in October / December. The OIS market is just beginning to partially price in a rate cut, post the June CPI print. The space to ease policy rates is derived from expectations that CPI inflation will significantly undershoot the RBI's estimate. FY26 CPI inflation is tracking at 2.7% v/s RBI's estimate of 3.7%. We expect rate cut expectations to firm up in the coming months. The more significant support to short-end yields will be the substantial surge in banking system liquidity, which is expected to peak at INR5tn by November / December. CRR will be reduced by 1% spread over September to November. This will infuse durable liquidity of INR2.5tn. From a demand perspective, while insurance sector demand is weak, demand from other investor segments has held up, such as pensions and PFs, supported by strong AUM growth. Banks' demand, which was weak in FY25, is expected to be stronger in FY26. This is supported by not just the low cost of funds but also the expected moderation in the credit-to-deposit ratio. The substantial, durable liquidity infusion by the RBI is beginning to have an impact on deposit growth, whose momentum in Q1FY26 has picked up. The reduction in cost of funds for banks has resulted in them shifting towards the short end of the curve. The steep yield curve also reflects that the market assessment of growth is not very negative. Hence expectation of a deep rate cut cycle isn't there despite a significant undershoot in inflation. Indeed, our growth assessment is similar to RBI's, with FY26 GDP growth expected to be 6.3%. The weakness in growth is seen in urban demand and private corporate capex. Meanwhile, growth will get support from rural demand, which is expected to recover with strong crop output and a rise in rural wages. Government capital expenditure, which had slowed last year due to the elections, is expected to pick up in FY26 both at the Centre and State levels. Hence, the short-end of the curve could still see further reduction in yields, supported by a substantial rise in liquidity and the RBI still having space to ease rates. The long-end of the curve will see limited support as the majority of the rate cut cycle is over, and the demand-supply dynamic is less supportive. 10yr g-sec yield is expected to range between 6.15% to 6.35%. (The author is Chief Economist, IDFC First Bank) Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
State contractors offer updates on new unemployment system following delays
Rep. Greg VanWoerkom (R-Norton Shores) raises concerns on delays in the rollout of a new state unemployment insurance system during a June 5, 2025 meeting of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on General Government. | Kyle Davidson As state agencies collaborate with contractors to craft a replacement to Michigan's outdated unemployment insurance system, individuals overseeing the effort offered an update on their progress, with plans to begin rolling out the system before the end of the year. The subject of those enhancements to the system were up for discussion Thursday before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on General Government. Testifying before the committee was Brett Gleason, chief of staff with the Michigan Unemployment Insurance Agency, who noted the current system is more than 10 years old and has placed limits on the agency's ability to adapt, support self-service, detect fraud and use data effectively. The agency selected the tech and strategy consulting firm Deloitte to lead the project in November of 2022, with the project costs estimated at $78 million, according to a report from the Detroit Free Press. Work on the project launched in May 2023, with the first component of the project expected to go live on Sept. 30, 2024. SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX David Parent, a managing partner of Deloitte, told the subcommittee on Thursday that while the project had faced challenges with management, scope and technology, the service for employers is expected to launch in December with the claimant side of the program rolling out in May 2026. As of Tuesday, test cases in the new system were passing at a 97% rate, Parent said, with the part of the system set to go live in May logging an 88% pass rate, Parent said. With the project set to launch 14 months later than initially promised, members of the committee pressed Parent and members of the Unemployment Insurance Agency and the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget on why the state requested an additional $20 million for the project despite the delays. Gleason explained that the state pays roughly $2.5 million a month to maintain the old system, and that the costs for maintaining the old system had been higher than anticipated due to the project delays. As a result, the additional $20 million would be used to maintain the current system and to cover costs for independent verification and validation services on the new system. With the Unemployment Insurance Agency paying out an estimated $8.5 billion in fraudulent claims during the COVID-19 pandemic, Rep. Greg VanWoerkom (R-Norton Shores) voiced concern, saying the delays had cost the state millions and put its unemployment safety net at risk. Gleason said the state has pursued an aggressive timeline in crafting and implementing the new system, and that the project still fell within the four to six year timeline that is typical in putting new systems like this in place. Laura Clark, the chief information office for DTMB, also noted the new system was expected to save the agency $5 million annually.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Animal advocates want proposed Oregon bill amended to close OHSU primate center
PORTLAND, Ore. () — Animal advocates have taken a public hearing on a proposed bill as an opportunity to urge lawmakers to shut down the Oregon National Primate Research Center. The House Committee On Emergency Management, General Government, and Veterans held the hearing on on Tuesday. Although the measure would ban research facilities from using public funds to cover 'medically unnecessary' testing on dogs and cats, several people provided testimony on why the proposal should also call for the closure of Oregon Health & Science University's monkey research lab. Downtown Vancouver street parking could no longer be free on weekends. Here's why The facility first opened after accepting its first group of rhesus macaques in the 1960s. Since then, OHSU has reported that the primates help boost patient care by teaching researchers more about vaccines and cures for diseases like Parkinson's, measles and mumps. But in recent years, activists with groups like the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine and have accused the university of abusing the monkeys by keeping them confined in tight areas and neglecting to treat them when they're sick. 'One of the facts that's irrefutable about the primate center is that it has violated the federal Animal Welfare Act repeatedly year after year,' Lake Oswego resident Amy Meyer, who testified on behalf of PETA, said at SB 181's hearing. 'They cannot get it right and every violation cited by the U.S. Department of Agriculture means horrific suffering and often a terrible death has happened to the monkeys caged there.' Amid the renewed push to close the primate center, its ability to care for the animals and the importance of the research. In a statement issued last month, the university emphasized that its work is heavily regulated by federal officials and there are veterinary specialists that address the monkeys' medical and dental needs. The institution has also asserted it only uses animals for research that doesn't offer an alternative option. OHA: 'Alarming' rise in syphilis during pregnancy contribute to infant health issues 'We are working toward the goal of ultimately eliminating the need for animals, and specifically nonhuman primates, to conduct research,' OHSU said. 'Despite great advances in new approach methodology, the technology to eliminate animal research isn't there yet.' Following Tuesday's hearing, the House committee has scheduled another work session for SB 181. It is slated for Tuesday, May 20. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Killingly's budget referendum is May 13: What's on the ballot and what's at stake
Now that the proposed fiscal 2026 budget has been accepted following an annual Town Meeting that lasted about five hours, Killingly's budget moves to a referendum May 13. Two changes were made to the budget at the annual Town Meeting May 5. The first change was to reduce the general government budget by $13,500 by eliminating town councilor stipends. That motion was approved, with 87 votes in favor of the reduction and 62 opposed. With this change, the proposed general government budget is now $23,629,755. The second change was that $1.1 million was added to the education budget. The motion to increase the education budget passed, with 117 votes in favor of the increase and 37 opposed. Now, the proposed education budget totals $49,038,817. A sample ballot was posted on the Town of Killingly's website May 6. Four questions appear on the ballot. The first question is: 'Shall the General Government Budget for the Town of Killingly, Connecticut, in the amount $23,629,755 for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026 be approved?' The next question is a follow-up question to the first, and asks 'For voters who voted 'NO' on Question #1a 'Is the Budget Too High?' or 'Is the Budget Too Low?' Then, the ballot asks: 'Shall the Education Budget for the Town of Killingly, Connecticut, in the amount of $49,038,817 for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026 be approved?' Like the question on the general government budget, the follow-up question is 'For voters who voted 'NO' on Question #2a Is the Budget Too High?' or 'Is the Budget Too Low?' Voters in districts 1, 3 and 5 will vote in the board of education central office, located at 79 Westfield Ave. Voters in districts 2 and 4 will vote at Killingly High School. The polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Killingly residents can see which voting district they live in by accessing a link on the town's website. Absentee ballots for the budget referendum became available May 6. Those interested in obtaining an absentee ballot should contact the Killingly town clerk at 860-779-5307 as soon as possible. All ballots must be issued in person according to Connecticut General Statutes. According to the Killingly Town Charter, if one or both of the budgets are rejected at the referendum May 13, the town council and town manager will review the budget/budgets and present them at another town meeting, which would be held Monday, May 19. Action would only need to be taken on the budget/budgets that were rejected at the referendum. At the Town Meeting May 19, there would be a discussion and referral to another referendum. The budgets cannot be increased or decreased, they could only be adopted or rejected. The next referendum would take place on the eighth day following the town meeting, according to the town charter, which would be May 27. The subsequent referendum would have the same polling locations and hours as the initial referendum. This article originally appeared on The Bulletin: Killingly budget referendum is May 13: What is at stake?
