10-03-2025
Giants Mailbagg, part 1: Even without Corbin Burnes, the pitching looks pretty good
Welcome to this spring training edition of the Giants Mailbagg. We put out a call for questions and y'all did not disappoint. Let's get right to them.
I plan to be at the Great American Smallpark on March 27. Besides eating as much Skyline Chili as possible, do you have any recommendations for food or any Cincinnati experiences that are can't-miss? Thanks, Baggs. Looking forward to another season of your coverage. — Raymond P.
Well, about that …
I want to share with you that I will not be in Cincinnati or any other major-league ballpark on Opening Day — the first one I'll miss since 1996. My editors were kind enough to approve my request for a 12-week leave of absence so I can pursue a few #lifegoals. This means you won't see my byline for a couple months. I apologize in advance to those of you who look forward to reading my Giants coverage. But I'm confident that Grant Brisbee (who will be in Cincinnati for the opening series), Melissa Lockard, our best-in-class national writers including Jayson Stark and Ken Rosenthal plus our well-staffed news enterprise team will ensure that there continues to be something fresh and interesting on our site for Giants fans to read on a consistent basis. And trust me, you'll still get plenty from me as part of your annual subscription. When I return in the first week of June, I'll be right back on the beat full time and making as many road trips as our travel budget (which is not being cut) will allow.
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On a personal note, it's going to be an adjustment for me to go without the reassuring structure of the baseball schedule. For 25 years, I've defaulted to those little orange and white boxes to order eight-plus months of my life. But the upshot is that I hope to return from this mini sabbatical ready to contribute like a rehabbing pitcher with a fresh supply of innings. I never take our readers for granted, and when I return in June, I pledge to give you my full effort to ask the questions you'd ask, raise the issues that most concern you, tell you something new about the ballplayers you root for every day, and process the whys and hows of this game we all love. So thank you in advance for your understanding.
Oh and Skyline is gross.
Most expert MLB forecasting sites are expecting the 2025 SF Giants to win roughly 79 games, with about a 20 percent chance of grabbing a wild-card slot and likely fourth place in the NL West. This is very similar to the past three years. What are your expectations? What would be the most important signs of progress? — Steve O.
Am I the only one who doesn't buy into the projections? I feel like this is a solid team. A few holes to be sure but a lot of young talent. I think they are a legit wild-card contender. — Kevin F.
I'll admit it. I'm bullish on this team. They have to stay healthy, obviously. And the offense likely won't be better than league average. But they were a .500 team last season despite essentially playing two months with a two-man rotation. All the spring training caveats apply, of course, but I see a team that is catching the ball, that throws strikes and that has more functional pitching depth than maybe even the World Series clubs.
There's a lot of stability in all of those qualities. Add on a breakout performance — maybe Jerar Encarnación becomes this year's version of Heliot Ramos? — and I think this team has a very good chance to outperform its modest projections. Yeah, they are relying on bounce backs from Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray, but I'll wager that expectations for those two former Cy Young Award winners are a lot more realistic than last year's second-half expectations for a rehabbing Ray and Alex Cobb.
The biggest reason for pessimism? That's easy. It's the strength of the National League. The universal DH has a lot to do with that, I think. There's no way Juan Soto signs with the Mets if there's no DH to make the back half (or most?) of that contract workable for an NL club. Obviously, the same is true for Shohei Ohtani and the contract he signed with the Dodgers. For years, the franchise-altering free-agent stars gravitated from the NL to the AL. Or they stayed in the AL. Now the balance of power has swung back the other way. This is debatable, but as I see it, the sixth-best team in the NL might be the second-best team in the AL. So that makes the Giants' competition for the NL wild card rigorous as a result.
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What would count as a positive, encouraging year? What do leaders look at, assuming the playoffs is a pretty ambitious goal? — Bobby C.
Maybe the Giants aren't as pot committed as they were last season, and it's not as if the new president of baseball operations is on the hot seat. But this is a group that expects to compete for a playoff spot. I do think there would be detrimental costs associated with another sub-.500 season. Especially when they cut the payroll. A lot of fans would be upset by a move or two that wasn't made (Corbin Burnes) and I couldn't blame them.
Can you elaborate on Corbin Burnes' perception that the front office was sluggish in their negotiations? — Willa10
Those are the comments he made to the San Francisco Chronicle, which are not in dispute. Here's the background as I understand it: The Giants knew early this past offseason that they ranked very high on Burnes' list of teams. So they sensed a potential opportunity. Remember, this is a franchise that has spent most of the last decade feeling frustrated by failed efforts to sell themselves to major free agents (Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, etc.). So if the interest already exists, you have to follow up on it.
But shock was on their faces at the Winter Meetings when the Yankees/Max Fried contract news broke. I think it was obvious to everyone in that moment that Burnes' desire to pitch in the Bay Area only counted for so much. He was going to get the contract terms he and Scott Boras were seeking ($300 million) or he was going to sign a deal studded with opt-outs.
As we reported in November, the Giants weren't going to support a payroll that would budget two major free agents at market rates. So a $300 million deal was out of the question for them. And Posey has made it clear that he views multiyear contracts as a durable commitment between a free agent and a player. It's a 'We want you here and we want you to want to be here' kind of thing. So they weren't interested in an opt-out structure, either. And while they liked Burnes, they weren't desperate to sign him. They really did feel like their young pitching would be a team strength, and a one-year contract with Justin Verlander would be a more appropriate bridge to the emergence of that pitching core.
Yeah, it's probably among the Giants' worst-case scenarios that Burnes signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, an NL West rival and definite wild-card hopeful, but we'll have to see how it plays out. The D-Backs could have another Zack Greinke on their hands for the next couple years. Or they could have another Madison Bumgarner.
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Are the Giants truly set on entering the season with only one lefty (Erik Miller) in the bullpen? And are they truly comfortable with a second lefty coming from the NRI pool? I understand why the team offloaded Taylor Rogers as his $12 million contract didn't make sense if he wasn't going to be used in higher leverage situations, but I'm disappointed we didn't at least take a flier on a cheaper major-league deal with a lefty reliever. — Luke V.
They did bring lefties with major-league experience to camp. Enny Romero was a one-time mainstay for Dusty Baker with the Nationals and he's clearly learned how to do more than throw hard, given his LIDOM performance. Joey Lucchesi has quite a bit of big-league experience, too. Sure, they could have signed someone like Andrew Chafin, but then they'd be locked into carrying him. I think after the contracts to Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson, etc., they preferred to stay in-house and retain as much roster flexibility as possible. You become saddled by obligation when you carry a declining veteran on a guaranteed contract — especially when you have so much young pitching knocking on the door. Of course, fans have no reason to applaud any trade that's a pure salary dump, and it would've been great if the Giants had found a meaningful way to improve the roster with the $6 million they saved by trading Taylor Rogers. But as you mentioned, they forecasted him to be the lowest-leverage guy in their bullpen, and $12 million is a lot to pay someone in that role.
A week or two ago, I thought for sure that one of the NRI lefties would make the team. Now I'm less sure. Romero has been the best of the bunch, and Helcris Olivarez has curbed his well-established walk habit in a small sample this spring. But none of the lefty NRIs are opening eyes, so to speak. Lucchesi is topping out at 91 and leaning on deception that might not play so well on a second and third viewing.
Here's the other important point: The Giants aren't going to use Erik Miller as an opener this season, which would otherwise necessitate a second lefty for late-inning matchups. You don't use an opener for Verlander, Ray or Logan Webb and I don't think they'd do it for Jordan Hicks or any of their No. 5 candidates, either. Finally, the coaching staff really, really respects Spencer Bivens' ability to throw strikes on command. You need someone in the bullpen who can do that and provide length in down games.
Almost every good Giants staff had a Guillermo Mota or Yusmeiro Petit who filled that role, for which handedness is secondary. Bivens looks to be ahead of Tristan Beck right now but I'd expect we will see a lot of both pitchers this season. And carrying one of them, along with right-hander Lou Trivino, who bears the Bob Melvin Seal of Approval™, would leave Miller as the only lefty.
What's the consensus on Kyle Harrison? I'm just not enthused with his limited arsenal especially with his inability to locate consistently. Fastball, curveball? What additional pitches has he tried to add? — Steve B.
I'd like to see Harrison try to throw a curveball from that arm slot. His fastball will be his separator. It has a lot of ride at the top of the zone. It's sneaky effective and sort of reminds me how Jonathan Sánchez's 94 mph looked like 99 mph to the hitter. Harrison can be a good major-league pitcher with a 92-93 mph fastball. But here's the harsh truth: Nobody is interested in that. Not when he struck out more than 14 batters per nine innings in the minor leagues while touching 97. If he cannot unlock that velocity again, then his ceiling is a lot lower than what we thought it could be a year ago.
That doesn't mean he's doomed. He is just 23 and it was pretty impressive how he competed well last season without anything near his best stuff (going at least five innings in 123 of his first 14 starts and making it through the sixth inning nine times overall). Every pitcher has room to improve or refine their secondaries, but for Harrison to be the top-of-the-rotation presence everyone thought he could be, it really is all about fastball velocity.
Are the young starting pitchers as promising as they seem to be, or is this group of six-to-eight guys (including the Carsons) kind of just normal organizational filler? — Neil O.
Hard to compare across eras, but I think back to guys like Eric Surkamp and Kevin Pucetas and Mike Kickham who were the Carsons (Whisenhunt, Ragsdale and Seymour) of their day in major-league camp. No disrespect intended, but it seems like this current group is a lot more talented. Here's another name for your consideration, and again, I mean no disrespect here, but the Giants opened last season with literally Daulton Jefferies as their No. 6 starter. I can think of eight pitchers in this camp who won't crack the Opening Day rotation but would represent a clear upgrade. And Hayden Birdsong really should excite you. He is the rare pitching prospect who can hold his upper-90s velocity into the late innings. None of this is a guarantee, obviously. But in terms of innings stability, the Giants are in a much better place now.
Which starting pitcher would you expect to replace an injured or underperforming member of the opening day rotation? — Ralph K.
If we assume that Landen Roupp is the No. 5 starter, the next man up would be Birdsong or Harrison. Under this set of assumptions, matchups might play a part in determining who would get the call. But it probably will have more to do with who's the best at throwing strikes and churning efficient outs at Triple A.
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Is there any sense in having a six-man rotation? Roupp has looked amazing so far in spring, and I'm high on Harrison improving and being ready by opening day. Why couldn't both fit into the rotation? — Lucas B.
You know, there might be times when this makes sense. Maybe tailor your pitching to your opponent in a given series and drop in Harrison or have him sub in for Roupp if you think a lefty will give you a much better matchup. A six-man rotation would stand to benefit Jordan Hicks, too. But it's probably helpful to keep this rule of thumb in mind: This front office is going to do a lot less tinkering and overthinking than the previous front office. There will be times when that philosophy is an advantage and times when the Giants leave meaningful edges on the table to the point where it's a disadvantage.
In terms of pitching deployment, I think you'll see a pretty traditional approach this season. And I can't argue against a plain vanilla five-man rotation when you want to give the ball to Webb as often as possible. I'd imagine Verlander, who needs 38 wins for 300, wouldn't be so thrilled about pitching on five days of rest instead of four, either!
Thanks for reading. We'll be back tomorrow with Part 2.
(Top photo of Roupp: Ross D. Franklin / Associated Press)
