Latest news with #GlobalInsight
Otago Daily Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- Otago Daily Times
Global Insight: US headed for authoritarian rule?
The next couple of days could reveal whether the United States is headed for authoritarian rule under President Donald Trump. Across the United States, hundreds of ''No Kings Day'' protests are planned in response to Saturday's US Army 250th anniversary military parade, in Washington DC, which also coincides with the 79th birthday of the increasingly autocratic US commander-in-chief. International relations specialist Prof Robert Patman says the fact Trump has already mobilised 4000 National Guards and 700 Marines in response to unrest over his crackdown on undocumented migrants in Los Angeles, and has promised a tough response to any parade-day protests, makes it a critical moment in America's political evolution. ''It's a fork-in-the-road moment for the United States,'' Prof Patman tells Global Insight. ''I don't think one should underestimate his ambitions to concentrate ever-greater power.'' Prof Patman says Trump's view of the world is starkly different to New Zealand's. ''He believes in a world where great powers run the world . . . a world which reflects America's interests above all.'' Liberal democracies have not responded quickly enough to ''disturbing trends . . . down the autocratic road'' since Trump's re-election late last year, he says. ''We are seeing domestic policies that mirror, to some extent, authoritarian trends, both in the domestic sphere and also in the foreign policy sphere. So, yes, I think we should be concerned. Police and members of the California National Guard stand next to demonstrators during a protest in downtown Los Angeles against federal immigration sweeps. Photo: Reuters ''Let's hope cooler heads prevail at the weekend on both sides of the argument.'' On this Global Insight episode, Prof Patman also outlines arguments about the validity of Trump's mobilisation of National Guards and Marines in Los Angeles, details the President's slide towards autocracy, and discusses factors contributing to US citizen concerns about Saturday's $90 million military parade.
Otago Daily Times
23-05-2025
- Politics
- Otago Daily Times
Global Insight: Stiff sanctions needed to stop Gaza deaths
Stiff sanctions will be needed before Israel stops its deadly military campaign in Gaza, a downbeat international relations specialist says. After an 11-week blockade, some aid is now being allowed into Gaza but Israel's military offensive to take total control of the Palestinian territory continues. University of Otago's Prof Robert Patman believes the only realistic lever likely to stop the death toll climbing above 55,000 will be international sanctions on Israel. ''To put it bluntly, what would change his [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's] mind is if the cost of his current trajectory of policy began to outweigh what he saw as the benefits of it,'' Prof Patman tells Global Insight. ''Until there is more concerted international pressure, and it might be sanctions... I don't think we're going to see a change.'' It is 19 months since a Hamas attack on Israel killed 1200 people and resulted in a further 251 people being taken hostage. The Israeli government response has been an ongoing assault on Gaza, briefly relieved by a two-month ceasefire early this year but followed by an 11-week humanitarian blockade and renewed attacks. Hungry Palestinians wait to receive meals distributed by a charity organisation in Jabalia Refugee Camp, Gaza City. The goal, Netanyahu says, is ''total victory'' against Hamas. Prof Patman says there is considerable criticism of Netanyahu's approach within Israel. But so far, the international response has been ''pretty weak''. With a few exceptions, most liberal democracies have failed to live up to their values and ideals about the international rule of law. ''So, it's difficult to be optimistic. ''Those who actually disagree with Mr Netanyahu's approach... are still not doing much to back up their talk.'' In this episode of Global Insight, Prof Patman also details Mr Netanyahu's illegal land-grab goals, the complicity of countries providing weapons to Israel, the toll on the civilian population of Gaza and the failure of the United Nations Security Council to bring about a ceasefire.
Otago Daily Times
01-05-2025
- Business
- Otago Daily Times
Global Insight: Trump causing tension for NZ govt
Donald Trump's aggressive protectionism could threaten the unity of New Zealand's coalition government, warns Prof Robert Patman. The University of Otago international relations specialist says divergent opinions about the United States president's global tariffs are already causing tension between New Zealand's governing parties. That friction might be exacerbated by the coalition parties' different long-term goals, he says. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters at Parliament. File photo: RNZ "They may well have an interest in papering this over. But I don't think Mr Luxon is going to back down on this," Prof Patman predicts. Recently, different views held by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, of the National Party, and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, of New Zealand First, were aired publicly when the PM described Trump's tariffs as unleashing a "trade war" and Peters then criticised such language as "hysterical". The issue is unlikely to go away, and could in fact get worse, because the smaller coalition parties — NZ First and Act Party — are looking to attract a narrower group of voters than centre-right National. "Their major concern is to get over 5% [of voters]. Whereas, as a major party, National, backed by the farming community, which depends on free trade, will be expecting their leader to do everything possible to preserve the free trade system," Prof Patman says. "[Luxon] will do everything possible . . . to make sure New Zealand's national interests are not disadvantaged by this new aggressive protectionism being pursued by Mr Trump." In today's episode of Global Insight, Prof Patman also discusses the tough stance Canada, under newly elected PM Mark Carney, is likely to take with Trump; signs of a growing international push against Trump's war on the global rules-based order; and the role China is likely to play.
