Latest news with #Gochnour
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Utah economy, job creation lead the nation but aren't safe from federal policies' impact
The downtown Salt Lake City skyline is backdropped by fresh snow on the Wasatch Mountains on Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. (Photo by Spenser Heaps for Utah News Dispatch) Utah's rates on unemployment and job growth are surpassing national averages this year and the state has kept its top spot in economic outlook ranking. But, amid tariffs, and a dropping consumer sentiment, economists warn the state is entering risky waters. The state's economy is outperforming other states, with jobs growing 2.1%, almost doubling the 1.2% national average. Utah also has some of the lowest unemployment rates, 3.1%, while that number remained unchanged at 4.2% nationally, according to a report from the Utah Department of Workforce Services released on Friday. 'Labor market indicators remain robust, with broad job expansions across industries and a low unemployment rate,' Ben Crabb, chief economist with the department, said in a statement. 'The level of job openings continues to exceed the number of unemployed workers in the state as employers promptly employ available labor.' SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX The top private sector industries adding jobs to the state are education and health services, followed by construction and manufacturing. According to Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute data shared by Natalie Gochnour, the institute's director, to the Salt Lake City Council on Tuesday, nearly half of the state's jobs are in Salt Lake County, and 1 in 4 jobs are in Salt Lake City. 'A stunning number when you think of the breadth of the state,' Gochnour said. That's over 400,000 roles in the city. Immigration, housing and tariffs awake uncertainty in Utah's 2025 economic outlook 'We're in an elite economy nationwide, as a state, and the urban center is participating and contributing to the economic vibrancy of the state in a big way.' Utah also led the nation in gross domestic product growth in 2024 with 4.5%, compared to a 2.8% national average, and earned other top spots in the country, including one of the highest household incomes with cost of living adjustments, and the lowest poverty rate. With this economic growth, whether a recession is coming is not apparent yet, Gochnour said. However, Utahns may still feel the impact of other economic national trends, and she believes it is for 'self-inflicted' reasons, such as tariffs, which she described as 'a tax on trade.' 'A reason many of the economists aren't forecasting a recession right now is because as things start to look bad, the administration will change and come to the rescue,' Gochnour said. During the first term of the Trump administration, tariff rates went from 1% to 3%, which the Biden administration kept. Now, according to Moody's Analytics calculations, the potential rate during President Donald Trump's second term could climb to 11.5%. Estimates predicting the future economics in the country have been uncertain this year and are constantly changing. But, the latest numbers, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Gardner Institute and Wells Fargo Economics, indicate that there may be a recession during the last half of 2025, with the country's gross domestic product falling 0.9% during the third quarter and 1.1% during the fourth quarter. 'Right now, the probability of a recession among most economists is somewhere in the 45% to 60% rate,' Gochnour said. 'So, flip of a coin. We'll see.' What's already happening, though, is the free fall of consumer sentiment in the country, an index used to measure how consumers view current and future economic conditions. 'And so you got a consumer that's feeling a little funky, you've got businesses with a lot of uncertainty, so they're not hiring, or they're pausing, they're not investing, and eventually that's going to show up in the numbers,' she said. 'This should be a leading indicator to all of us.' Another fall felt in the state is a decline of job growth in leisure and hospitality. According to the Department of Workforce Services' summary, that industry shrank by 400 jobs in the last year, the second-largest private sector decline after the trade, transportation and utilities industry, which experienced the loss of 2,300 jobs. Gochnour attributes that to tempered international travel, an effect of federal policies, as well as cuts in national parks, with employee counts declining 13% only this year, among other causes. The forecast for international visitation as of March is a 9.4% decline, according to Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics research company. 'This is something that's expected and well known in the leisure and hospitality sector, that we're going to feel some pain from that contraction,' she said. However, there will also be some other balancing forces, at least for Salt Lake City, with the opening of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints' remodeled Temple Square in 2027, which is expected to attract millions of visitors. SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Utah economy, job creation lead the nation but aren't safe from federal policies' impact
The downtown Salt Lake City skyline is backdropped by fresh snow on the Wasatch Mountains on Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. (Photo by Spenser Heaps for Utah News Dispatch) Utah's rates on unemployment and job growth are surpassing national averages this year and the state has kept its top spot in economic outlook ranking. But, amid tariffs, and a dropping consumer sentiment, economists warn the state is entering risky waters. The state's economy is outperforming other states, with jobs growing 2.1%, almost doubling the 1.2% national average. Utah also has some of the lowest unemployment rates, 3.1%, while that number remained unchanged at 4.2% nationally, according to a report from the Utah Department of Workforce Services released on Friday. 'Labor market indicators remain robust, with broad job expansions across industries and a low unemployment rate,' Ben Crabb, chief economist with the department, said in a statement. 'The level of job openings continues to exceed the number of unemployed workers in the state as employers promptly employ available labor.' SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX The top private sector industries adding jobs to the state are education and health services, followed by construction and manufacturing. According to Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute data shared by Natalie Gochnour, the institute's director, to the Salt Lake City Council on Tuesday, nearly half of the state's jobs are in Salt Lake County, and 1 in 4 jobs are in Salt Lake City. 'A stunning number when you think of the breadth of the state,' Gochnour said. That's over 400,000 roles in the city. Immigration, housing and tariffs awake uncertainty in Utah's 2025 economic outlook 'We're in an elite economy nationwide, as a state, and the urban center is participating and contributing to the economic vibrancy of the state in a big way.' Utah also led the nation in gross domestic product growth in 2024 with 4.5%, compared to a 2.8% national average, and earned other top spots in the country, including one of the highest household incomes with cost of living adjustments, and the lowest poverty rate. With this economic growth, whether a recession is coming is not apparent yet, Gochnour said. However, Utahns may still feel the impact of other economic national trends, and she believes it is for 'self-inflicted' reasons, such as tariffs, which she described as 'a tax on trade.' 'A reason many of the economists aren't forecasting a recession right now is because as things start to look bad, the administration will change and come to the rescue,' Gochnour said. During the first term of the Trump administration, tariff rates went from 1% to 3%, which the Biden administration kept. Now, according to Moody's Analytics calculations, the potential rate during President Donald Trump's second term could climb to 11.5%. Estimates predicting the future economics in the country have been uncertain this year and are constantly changing. But, the latest numbers, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Gardner Institute and Wells Fargo Economics, indicate that there may be a recession during the last half of 2025, with the country's gross domestic product falling 0.9% during the third quarter and 1.1% during the fourth quarter. 'Right now, the probability of a recession among most economists is somewhere in the 45% to 60% rate,' Gochnour said. 'So, flip of a coin. We'll see.' What's already happening, though, is the free fall of consumer sentiment in the country, an index used to measure how consumers view current and future economic conditions. 'And so you got a consumer that's feeling a little funky, you've got businesses with a lot of uncertainty, so they're not hiring, or they're pausing, they're not investing, and eventually that's going to show up in the numbers,' she said. 'This should be a leading indicator to all of us.' Another fall felt in the state is a decline of job growth in leisure and hospitality. According to the Department of Workforce Services' summary, that industry shrank by 400 jobs in the last year, the second-largest private sector decline after the trade, transportation and utilities industry, which experienced the loss of 2,300 jobs. Gochnour attributes that to tempered international travel, an effect of federal policies, as well as cuts in national parks, with employee counts declining 13% only this year, among other causes. The forecast for international visitation as of March is a 9.4% decline, according to Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics research company. 'This is something that's expected and well known in the leisure and hospitality sector, that we're going to feel some pain from that contraction,' she said. However, there will also be some other balancing forces, at least for Salt Lake City, with the opening of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints' remodeled Temple Square in 2027, which is expected to attract millions of visitors. SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gov. Cox: Utah is no longer a ‘spunky upstart'
Utah has arrived. It's no longer the 'spunky upstart' trying to make its way onto the stage, Gov. Spencer Cox said in remarks to a room full of the state's political and business leaders. After Utah was named the best state in the nation for the third year in a row by U.S. News and World Report, Cox is taking a victory lap of sorts, celebrating the strong human capital he sees as the basis for the state's success. Cox spoke about Utah's success on Thursday at the Crossroads of the World International Trade Summit, a two-day, invitation-only event sponsored by Zions Bank and World Trade Center Utah that invited 'world leaders and top business minds to discuss the uncertainties, trends, and opportunities surrounding international business.' Utah does well in rankings, Cox said, because the state's residents don't engage in zero-sum thinking. Instead, the state's residents embrace an abundance mentality, he said. Cox started his remarks by praising the book 'Superabundance,' written by Utah Tech University professor Gale Pooley. The book counters the idea popularized by Paul Ehrlich in the 1960s that the world's growing population would be a strain on resources, leading to widespread famine and human suffering. 'The thing is that the greatest resource we have are our people, human beings,' Cox said. 'You see all of those minerals, all of those commodities, all of those important things are just atoms. They're basically worthless. They don't mean anything until you put human knowledge and ingenuity behind them.' Natalie Gochnour, director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, who spoke at the summit earlier on Thursday, shared some of the numbers behind the state's numerous awards. Utah's workforce is the third most 'well-trained, well-educated' in the country,' Gochnour said. The state also has the lowest poverty rate in the country, and, when adjusted for cost of living, Utah also has the highest median household income in the country. A study released by the institute Thursday also showed Utah is punching above its weight in international trade. The state had $18.2 billion in merchandise exports and $21.9 billion in imports in 2024. The study said international trade supports over 70,000 jobs in the state. Utah's largest trading partners are the United Kingdom, Canada, China and Mexico. Amid her discussion of the state's international exports, Gochnour brought up the tariffs recently levied by the Trump administration on most of the country's trading partners. She said she wasn't going to 'make a judgement' about the policy decision, and said there could be some mid- or long-term benefits to the administration's economic policies, but said economists are mostly united in their belief that tariffs will hurt trade and the economy. Tariffs could make housing more expensive at a time when the state is already struggling, she said, and a recent drop in consumer confidence is also worrying.
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How Trump's global tariffs could impact Utah
Countries that import the most goods to Utah in various industries were hit with some of the highest tariffs President Donald Trump imposed on dozens of U.S. allies and adversaries in an unprecedented move. In 2024, Mexico ($4.8 billion), Canada ($4.74 billion), China ($2.66 billion), Taiwan ($1.55 billion) and Vietnam ($936 million) were the top importers of products for the Beehive State. Those five countries account for more than two-thirds of all products shipped to Utah. Each of them face hefty new trade levies: U.S. tariff rate against China: 34% U.S. tariff rate against Taiwan: 32% U.S. tariff rate against Vietnam: 46% Wednesday's changes to U.S. trade policy came after a series of targeted tariffs that include: 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods not protected by a 2020 trade deal, an additional 10% on all Chinese goods, 25% on all steel and aluminum imports and 25% on cars and car parts, with partial exceptions for automobiles that fall under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The higher tariffs apply to countries with which the U.S. has the highest trade deficits, or the greatest difference between how much the U.S. buys from a trade partner and how much the trade partner buys from the U.S. Utah last year imported $19.1 billion in goods, including machinery, electronics, automotive products, pharmaceuticals and metals, from 151 countries, according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity. It was the 29th largest importer in the country. The largest imports by value were unwrought gold ($4.38 billion), data processing parts and accessories ($1.17 billion), voice and data communication machines ($969 million), unspecified commodities ($910 million),and unwrought silver ($864 million). 'That's a big, big number,' said Natalie Gochnour, an economist and director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah. 'We're very engaged in international trade in this state.' Utah exported $18.2 billion of goods in 2024, making it the 26th largest exporter in the country, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Now, Gochnour said, those markets are being distorted with a tariff or a tax that makes things more expensive and disrupts supply chains. 'Some businesses are really hurt by it and may not survive. A lot of businesses readjust and figure it out,' she said. Gochnour noted that a lot of Utah companies that import goods are small, perhaps having established a relationship with suppliers to repackage and resell two or three products. Many also import intermediate goods used to make or assemble a finished product domestically, she said. 'So the high tariff will raise the cost of production for those companies and make them less competitive,' she said. The Utah outdoor industry, which hit a record $9.5 billion in 2023, is one that could feel the pinch of Trump's trade levies. The tariffs will make it more expensive to make and sell outdoor gear in the U.S., hurting American businesses, workers and consumers, according to the Outdoor Industry Association. Last year, 175.8 million Americans participated in outdoor recreation, an all-time high. But now, many of the products that make those experiences possible are about to get much more expensive. 'These tariffs will raise costs for American manufacturers, retailers and families,' Kent Ebersole, OIA president, said in a statement. 'That's going to slow growth, put pressure on small and mid-sized outdoor companies, and could force some to close their doors. These tariffs also make it more difficult for global outdoor brands to operate in the U.S. and maintain their American workforce.' The tariff announcement cast Utah businesses into uncertainty as they face potentially overlapping tariffs and how they interact with recent purchases that have yet to enter the country. 'It's going to take some time to build out our supply chains,' Ben Kolendar, the chief of staff at World Trade Center Utah, told the Deseret News on Wednesday. 'And the reality is, we're going to have to import goods for some time, even if they are more costly.' World Trade Center Utah is monitoring the shifting trade levies and created a dashboard to help companies in the state navigate the changes. 'Tariffs are shaping the trade environment and will present significant challenges for Utah businesses. Global competitiveness may require rethinking regulation, expanding production that requires investments and tariffs come with risks,' according to its website. Utah had a trade surplus for total goods in 10 of the 16 years from 2008 through 2023, averaging $4.1 billion before adjusting for inflation. But from 2020 to 2023 the state has run a trade deficit, with total exports ranging from about $19.0 million to $2.5 billion less than total imports, per a 2023 Gardner Institute report. Global tariffs will have a painful effect on many Utah businesses even if they do not rely directly on imports, said Kim Honeysett, the chief legal officer at Varex Imaging, because U.S. suppliers of parts and raw materials are integrated into 'multiple levels of supply chain that will be impacted.' The Salt Lake City-based company is the only independent manufacturer of medical, industrial and security X-ray imaging technology in the U.S., employing around 1,200 people domestically. Nearly 70% of the company's $800 million annual sales come from the export of products, Honeysett told the Deseret News on Wednesday. So in addition to the increased overhead costs Varex will have from tariffs on things like imported housings, there is also the threat of retaliatory tariffs hurting sales, Honeysett said. While a delayed timeline could help give businesses time to pivot, Honeysett worries Trump's new tariff policy could have the unintended consequence of pushing companies to leave the U.S. to avoid getting caught up in a trade war. 'Trump talked about bolstering the economy, bringing jobs back to the U.S., increasing manufacturing in the U.S. — one of the real challenges, I think, is it could have the opposite effect,' Honeysett said. 'Increased costs associated with supply chain, increased costs to customers, could actually drive U.S. manufacturing overseas, taking American jobs with them.' Despite the upheaval, Utah has arguably the strongest economy in the nation, Gochnour said. Utah's gross domestic product growth led the nation in 2024, reaching 4.5%, compared to the nation's 2.8% growth, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and analyzed by the Gardner Institute. Also, the state's GDP surpassed $300 billion for the first time, averaging $301 billion for the year and ending at $308 billion. Statewide personal income grew 6.1% from 2023 to 2024, ranking Utah fourth-highest in the country. 'Utah's strong economic fundamentals continue to propel robust growth,' Phil Dean, chief economist at the Gardner Institute, said in a statement. 'Utah benefits from a young, well-educated population, competitive fiscal and regulatory policies, its geographic location as the Crossroads of the West, a highly diversified economy, and nation-leading social capital. Although not without economic challenges, these strong fundamentals help Utah navigate the ups and downs of the economic cycle.' The president's tariffs are also causing uncertainty among economists. 'One of the more interesting things going on in the economic world right now is the national forecasters don't know whether to put these in their forecasts or not because of the on-again, off-again (tariffs) and because of this president's reputation and, honestly, his skill at negotiating,' Gochnour said. To some extent, they see it as posturing to get different trade agreements put in place, particularly in Mexico and Canada and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, she said. Gochnour said a lot of economists don't know what to think but 'if you just think about it logically, we're on recession watch.' 'We have a strong national economy and local economy but we're on recession watch from the standpoint of what's happening in consumer sentiment, what's happening in policy uncertainty, the fact that inflation has not come under control, so there's a lot of consternation,' Gochnour said. 'If it starts to create more difficulty for them, then we'll change direction.' Contributing: Brigham Tomco
