Latest news with #Goes-19
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Bryan Norcross discusses how AI will become critical forecasting tool this hurricane season
MIAMI – This year's hurricane season marks a significant turning point in weather forecasting with artificial intelligence models being integrated into the analytical toolkit of forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. While not yet part of the official consensus models, AI is poised to dramatically enhance the accuracy and efficiency of hurricane predictions, ushering in a new era of meteorological technology. "This is going to be a year where we start to really take in and evaluate some of the AI model guidance from various producers, and we're going to pull that into our systems here and evaluate it," NHC Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather. Artificial Intelligence Among New Tech Shaping Forecasts During 2025 Hurricane Season The NHC will then compare AI model guidance to their traditional models to see how well it performs and how the agency can integrate it into its forecasting process. "They're not going be part of our official consensus or blended models this year, but we may make some additional ones on the side that we're going to test out and see how they do and perform," Brennan adds. "I think especially for track, there's a lot of promise on the AI side for some potential improvements in the near term." Brennan notes that intensity forecasting might take longer to fully mature with AI. "You have to think of them all as being in experimental mode, and I think it's important actually to distinguish between them," he said. Noaa's Goes-19 Weather Satellite Begins Operations In Orbit For years, meteorologists have relied on sophisticated forecast models that simulate atmospheric conditions through complex mathematical equations, according to FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. These traditional models, like the American GFS and European ECMWF, require immense computational power, running for hours to produce a single forecast, Norcross said. However, a new breed of AI models, such as Google's Graphcast and the European Center's AIFS, are emerging as powerful complements. Unlike their traditional counterparts, AI models utilize pattern recognition, learning from vast datasets of past weather phenomena to predict future outcomes, according to Norcross. This approach allows them to operate with remarkable speed, generating forecasts in mere minutes. "This year is going to be the big year because now we have access and regular access, immediate access, to many different AI models," he explained. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook According to Norcross, the regular model tries to simulate the atmosphere. The AI models don't do that and are more pattern recognition oriented. However, the speed and efficiency of AI models allow for an unprecedented number of "runs" or simulations, providing forecasters with a much broader distribution of possible outcomes, Norcross adds. This increased variability insight is crucial for understanding the potential range of a hurricane's behavior. "Because the AI models are so efficient, what you can do is you can run the AI model with exactly the same information, and then you can modify it a little bit and run it again, and you can really get a good distribution of possibilities because you don't have to use all this computer power," Norcross said. How To Watch Fox Weather Currently, NHC forecasters rely on a consensus approach, averaging the outputs of multiple traditional models to produce the most reliable forecast, Norcross adds. This consensus has consistently proven to be more accurate than any single model. "This year, the AI models are not going to be added to the consensus, but they will in the future," Norcross said. "They'll do this in the background and just see if it helps the consensus or not."Original article source: Bryan Norcross discusses how AI will become critical forecasting tool this hurricane season
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Artificial intelligence among new tech shaping forecasts during 2025 hurricane season
MIAMI – In light of hurricane season starting this weekend, NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) provided a sneak peek into how the agency has updated its approach to forecasting hurricanes, particularly by using new technology. NHC Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross on Friday that some of those changes include upgrading NOAA's hurricane analysis and forecast system hurricane models this summer. They will also apply updates to how his team forecasts rapid intensification, which is when a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. Brennan said progress has been made in this field since Katrina hit in August 2005, allowing forecasters to improve their understanding of how intensity works. Another update to the NHC's forecasting includes using a new Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES. Brennan noted how the satellite, which has been parked over the Atlantic and the eastern U.S., is already being used as the primary tool for monitoring the tropics, or the area of the Atlantic where tropical storms form. Noaa's Goes-19 Weather Satellite Begins Operations In Orbit Perhaps one of the newest types of technology the NHC will use in developing its forecasts is artificial intelligence (AI). Traditionally, some of the more accurate forecasts are developed by taking the so-called "averages" of multiple weather models. This year, meteorologists at the NHC will begin to test models produced by AI in the context of traditional modeling when they build their forecasts. "They're (AI) not going to be part of our official sort of consensus or blended models this year, but we may make some additional ones on the side that we're going to test out and see how they do and perform," Brennan said. He noted how AI might especially show a lot of promise when it comes to forecasting the path of a hurricane. However, he looks at that potential with a keen eye. "It's important for us to look at it ourselves, do our own evaluation and see how it fits in," he said. NOAA said this hurricane season is expected to see 13-19 named storms, or storms with maximum sustained winds strong enough to classify them as either tropical storms or hurricanes. In fact, NOAA predicts that 6-10 of those named storms will be hurricanes, and about half of those are expected to become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook FOX Weather will premiere two specials on the FOX Weather channel and FOX Weather app as the U.S. kicks off hurricane season. The first special will be "Hurricane HQ: Eye on the Season," which will air on Sunday at noon ET. In this special, FOX Weather Meteorologist Ian Oliver revisits hard-hit communities from last year's deadly storms, while Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross breaks down the driving forces behind the season ahead. On Monday at 9 a.m. ET, Norcross will answer hurricane questions live during a unique, interactive hourlong special called "Hurricane HQ&A with Bryan Norcross." How To Watch Fox Weather In addition to the two specials, FOX Weather will also kick off the official start of the 2025 hurricane season with "Hurricane HQ Week." The network's meteorologists will share the latest predictions, heartfelt stories of survival and talk with those still rebuilding from last year's destructive storms. You can watch FOX Weather on your favorite platform or streaming device and on your FOX Weather article source: Artificial intelligence among new tech shaping forecasts during 2025 hurricane season
