Latest news with #Gonçalves
Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
The best way to respond to a geopolitical crisis
There's a better way for investors to respond to geopolitical crises, such as war and military conflict. The conventional advice is to increase equity exposure immediately after a crisis erupts, since the stock market following past crises was, on average, higher in three, six, and 12 months' time. While this advice isn't bad as far as it goes, a new study finds that investors could improve performance by increasing equity exposure before a crisis erupts but as the risk of a crisis grows. The study, titled 'The Pricing of Geopolitical Tensions Over a Century," began circulating in academic circles in March. Its authors are Andrei Gonçalves, Alessandro Melone, and Andrea Ricciardi of Ohio State University's Fisher College of Business. It might seem counterintuitive to respond to increased geopolitical risks by becoming more invested, since the stock market almost always responds to such risks by falling. But it makes theoretical sense to respond by increasing your equity exposure, Gonçalves and Melone tell Barron's, since by the time you know that risks have risen, the stock market will have already declined. By then, it's too late to decrease your exposure. Even if it weren't too late, however, they say the better response is to increase your exposure. That's because the stock market's immediate decline is its way of providing a higher expected future return to compensate investors for the greater risk. Increasing your equity exposure in response to a rising threat should therefore produce a higher return over the long term. This is exactly what the researchers found. They were able to quantify geopolitical threats by relying on an index created a few years ago by two economists at the Federal Reserve: Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello. Their Geopolitical Threats Index, or GPT, data for which extends back over a century, was compiled by measuring the number of articles in major newspapers that mention any of a wide range of geopolitical threats. Gonçalves and Melone point out that the GPT in recent years has been highly correlated with surveys of fund managers' subjective assessments of geopolitical risk. They are therefore confident that the index's historical readings accurately reflected the geopolitical risk that investors perceived at any given time. To illustrate the profit potential of increasing equity exposure in line with the GPT, the researchers constructed a hypothetical portfolio whose baseline allocation was 60% invested in U.S. equities and 40% in long-term U.S. Treasuries. This portfolio increased its equity allocation (and reduced its bond allocation) whenever the GPT rose above its historical median. From 1930 until the end of April, this portfolio's return was 1.5 annualized percentage points above another portfolio that constantly maintained a 60% stock/40% bond allocation. It outperformed on a risk-adjusted basis, as well. You would have performed significantly worse if you increased your exposure only after geopolitical threats manifested themselves as actual crises—after war broke out, for example. That's because geopolitical risks don't always turn into actual crises, and you leave money on the table if you don't become more heavily invested in response to rising threat levels. 'In an era of global tensions, it's not just the wars we fight but the threats we fear that drive financial markets," Gonçalves and Melone explain. The implication of this new study is that you should currently be moderately overweight relative to your target equity allocation, since, as you can see from the accompanying chart, the GPT's latest reading is moderately above its four-decade median. You could increase your equity exposure by investing in a broad market index fund, but a more targeted approach would be to invest in those industries that historically have been most sensitive to geopolitical risks. Two that the researchers single out, based on various industries' reactions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are Oil & Natural Gas and Autos & Trucks. Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@
Miami Herald
22-05-2025
- Sport
- Miami Herald
Viktor Gyokeres Makes Transfer Admission to Teammate Over Arsenal, Man Utd Links
Viktor Gyökeres's message to his Sporting CP teammates when asked about his uncertain future was simple, "I'm not a fortune teller." The relentlessly prolific striker has attracted admirers from across the continent after racking up outrageous scoring statistics over the past two years. Gyökeres's outrageous haul of 39 top-flight goals sees him lead the race for the European Golden Shoe, even though strikes in the Portuguese division are worth less than those plundered in one of Europe's top five leagues. Arsenal are billed as one of the striker's most prominent suitors, with the Gunners expected to hand the 26-year-old a "generous" contract to convince him to choose north London, while there have been constant rumours about a possible reunion with former Sporting CP boss Ruben Amorim at Manchester United. The speculation surrounding Gyökeres has also seeped into Sporting's dressing room. "I asked him and we all asked him. He says he's not a fortune teller," Pedro Gonçalves revealed during an appearance on Canal 11 after winning the top-flight title. "We still have the Portuguese Cup against Benfica to play." "I have a very good relationship with him, but I don't talk about it with him. What I know is because of Fabrizio Romano," Gonçalves laughed. "I'm sticking with him. I don't know if he's going to leave." Gonçalves is hardly the only Sporting player desperate to keep Gyökeres. Francisco Trincão joked to Record that he would try to "lock" the Swedish striker up to keep him in Lisbon. Gyökeres has been coy when addressing the topic himself, insisting, "I don't know what's going to happen." What is less dubious is the striker's status as an elite forward. Gyökeres was once again voted the best player in the Portuguese top flight, becoming the first person since Porto's Brazilian cult hero Hulk a decade ago to claim the award in successive seasons. READ THE LATEST TRANSFER NEWS, RUMOURS FROM WORLD SOCCER Copyright ABG-SI LLC. SPORTS ILLUSTRATED is a registered trademark of ABG-SI LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Fashion United
15-05-2025
- Business
- Fashion United
Portuguese footwear industry to invest 600 million euros
The Portuguese footwear, components, leather goods manufacturers association (APICCAPS), which represents the footwear industry in the country, is looking to invest 600 million euros in the industry by 2030 with a focus on innovation, sustainability, worker skills and international growth. 'This is our largest investment ever. We believe that we can increasingly become a major international reference,' Paulo Gonçalves, spokesperson for APICCAPS, told FashionUnited. 'We are not particularly focused on increasing production, as the sector already manufactures 80 million pairs of shoes a year; our main goal is to optimise processes and make the Portuguese footwear industry an international benchmark in the development of new products.' The 600-million-euro investment planned by the end of the decade includes two major projects already underway (BioShoes4All and FAIST), which are expected to be completed by the end of this year, in the areas of automation, digitalisation, and sustainability. Gonçalves added: 'Every year, 22 billion pairs of shoes are produced internationally, 90 percent of which are in Asia, which means nine out of ten people wear Asian shoes. We don't think this is sustainable. 'We believe that it is possible to produce excellent footwear in Europe at fair prices and we are making the investment in areas such as automation, digitalisation, qualification, sustainability and internationalisation of our sector.' APICCAPS 2025 campaign image Credits: APICCAPS Portugal's footwear industry looking to become an international benchmark for sustainability One of the main focuses of APICCAPS' strategy plan is its green commitment, which includes the Portuguese Shoes Green Pact signed three years ago by 140 companies, involving audits to improve energy efficiency, material use and eco-design. The Portuguese footwear industry is working with 100 partners, including 14 universities, to place Portugal 'at the forefront' in creating sustainable footwear. 'Instead of prioritising the product, our main concern was to optimise the process, reducing water and energy consumption, ensuring savings in raw materials, and ensuring product traceability and packaging concerns,' explains Gonçalves. 'If we have more capable, more productive and more solid companies, we are contributing to a more robust ecosystem. We also continue to invest in local production in Europe.' APICCAPS offers a range of services to companies, including technical support and training with its established Portuguese Footwear Technology Centre (CTCP), which it founded in 1986 with the Portuguese government. The centre is at the forefront of research for the footwear industry, conducting physical and chemical laboratory tests of raw materials and final products, product certification, as well as research into new materials, equipment and processes, such as producing more sustainable footwear, and the use of robotics and 3D printing. Portuguese footwear investing in sustainable materials and processes It is also looking into how to make the industry more sustainable and how new generation of products, such as biomaterials like fruit peels, natural materials from cork to wood, and recycled materials, can be developed, as well as continuing to promote leather as a 'durable product'. Gonçalves added: 'We are making a very large investment, of about 70 million euros, within the scope of the Biosgies4all project, in the development of a new generation of products. We are working with universities, technology centres and several companies. 'However, we continue to consider leather to be the best raw material on the market. It is a natural raw material, a byproduct of the food industry, abundant, technically extraordinary and with a long lifespan. Despite all these characteristics, we are developing new leathers, reducing water consumption in the process, and optimising the dyeing, replacing chemical products with dyes based on natural products.' The Portuguese footwear industry specialises in the export of leather shoes, representing 83 percent of foreign trade, with Portugal being the tenth largest exporter in the world. Last year, the leather goods sector exported more than 353 million euros, a record-breaking figure. APICCAPS 2025 campaign image Credits: APICCAPS Portuguese footwear industry targeting growth from the US and UK The footwear sector contributes more than one thousand million euros annually to the Portuguese economy, and in 2024, the footwear industry exported 68 million pairs of shoes, worth 1.724 million euros. Its biggest trading markets are Germany, France, and the Netherlands, followed by Spain, the UK, and the US. One of the growth areas for the country's footwear is the US, where it exported more than 90 million euros worth of footwear, and in the last decade, growth has increased by 109 percent. However, the ongoing uncertainty of the US tariffs being introduced by the Trump administration could see the sector affected. Commenting on the impact of the US tariffs on Portugal, Gonçalves said: 'It is difficult to make a precise assessment. To begin with, American consumers will be the ones most affected. Given that China is the main supplier to the market, we could even be doing something fair for countries like Spain, Italy or Portugal. 'Even so, it is difficult to see whether there will be a reduction in consumption and whether China will become more competitive in the European markets. In any case, we will not give up on the American market, which is currently the 6th destination for Portuguese footwear, worth around 100 million euros.' According to the Business Conditions Survey, World Footwear's survey, global footwear consumption is set to grow by 8.4 percent in 2025, driven by growth in Oceania (up 25 percent), followed by Africa (up by 13.3 percent), Asia (up by 9.2 percent) and North America (up by 8.3 percent). A more modest increase is forecasted for South America (up by 3.2 percent), while Europe is expected to stagnate by 0.5 percent. 'We expect 2025 to be a year of recovery for the footwear sector internationally,' added Gonçalves. 'There are still several signs of uncertainty, especially in Europe and companies must continue to find new markets. North America and Asia are expected to show the greatest growth potential this year, and the Portuguese industry will be looking to increase its focus on relevant markets, such as the US, Korea and Japan.' There are currently 1,500 companies in the footwear cluster (footwear, components and leather goods), responsible for 40,000 jobs in Portugal. The sector exports 90 percent of its production to 173 countries on all five continents, worth close to 2 billion euros. 'Regardless of economic cycles, we are here to stay. The greatest proof of our confidence is that we are making the biggest investment in our history. We know that Portugal can be a great international benchmark in terms of developing a sustainable industry, an industry for the future,' Gonçalves concluded. APICCAPS 2025 campaign image Credits: APICCAPS
