Latest news with #GovernmentEfficiency
The Independent
6 hours ago
- Business
- The Independent
TACO to FAFO: The secret insults investors are using to poke fun at Trump's policies
MAGA President Donald Trump might be known for his snappy acronyms, but now investors are using four-letter descriptors of their own to discuss Trump-era trade policies. Trump's shorthand for his administration's cost-cutting arm DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, as well as the slogan driving his public health department, 'Make America Healthy Again,' have become familiar jargon. Now, with the president's fixation on tariffs, Wall Street investors have developed their own abbreviations for Trump's trade policies. Asked about the acronyms, a White House spokesperson told Reuters: "These asinine acronyms convey how unserious analysts have consistently beclowned themselves by mocking President Trump and his agenda that've already delivered multiple expectation-beating jobs and inflation reports, trillions in investment commitments, a historic UK trade agreement, and rising consumer confidence." ICYMI: Here are some of the latest terms. TACO Some Wall Street traders have started using TACO — short for 'Trump Always Chickens Out' — a term coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong to describe the president's pattern of implementing trade policy threats that are likely to cause the market to tumble before he inevitably walks back on that policy, leading to a market rebound. For example, his so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs caused the markets to hit historic lows before he ordered a 90-day pause one week later, leading to record highs. This week, when asked about the acronym, the president replied: 'That's a nasty question. To me, that's the nastiest question.' MEGA Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian Prime Minister and Trump ally, co-opted Trump's MAGA slogan last year, but added a European spin to it: 'Make Europe Great Again.' Now, investors have given the phrase yet another meaning. European stocks have outperformed their American counterparts as economic uncertainty reigns in the U.S., prompting some investors to choose to put their money in European interests rather than American. Some analysts have predicted that China could start exporting its goods to Europe, which could lower prices there, as tensions between China and the U.S. remain high. "It seems that MEGA trades are now rapidly replacing MAGA trades, which have lost their appeal," Mark Dowding, CIO at RBC's BlueBay fixed income team, told Reuters. Trump himself has actually used this four-letter term, which stands for 'F*** around and find out.' It's usually used to mean there will be consequences to one's actions. In January, after Columbia blocked the U.S.'s deportation flights, Trump posted a moody AI-generated image of himself wearing a fedora next to a sign reading: 'FAFO.' After the president threatened hefty levies, Columbia reversed course, prompting the Times of London to dub the exchange a 'FAFO diplomacy.' Some investors are also using the acronym to describe the market turbulence caused by Trump's sweeping trade policies, according to Reuters. Mark Spindel, chief investment officer of Potomac River Capital LLC, likened the stock market to being caught in a "pinball machine as a result of that policymaking process." FAFO Standing for 'Make America Go Away,' a report is Reuters cites one Canadian investor who says the quip is doing the rounds of trading desks in Toronto and Montreal, with many longingly thinking about simply boycotting U.S investment.
Forbes
13 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
Lawrence Lepard Predicts 'The Big Print'
Although the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, even the Bank of Japan, are not today buying bonds or increasing the base money supply significantly, many people suspect that more overt financing of governments via the money-creation process may lie not too far ahead – what, in the past, often took the form of literally printing paper banknotes; although today, the process is likely to be more digital in character. One such person is Lawrence Lepard, author of The Big Print (2025). Lawrence Lepard's new book The Big Print Lawrence Lepard Just in recent weeks, Japan's government bond market has had a price breakdown of the sort not seen since, perhaps, the late 1970s. People have been predicting disaster there literally for decades; but perhaps now the time is upon us. Even the US Treasury market, although one of the better credits in the developed world, has had a notable trend toward weakness. Bond buyers can see that today's historically huge deficits – the Congressional Budget Office predicts 6%+ of GDP deficits basically forever – do not seem to have any upcoming resolution. Despite the heroic recent efforts of the Department of Government Efficiency, Congress has not yet found the will to cut its spending in any meaningful way, preferring instead minor tweaks. But, decades of minor tweaking, in lieu of significant reforms, are what brought us to this point in the first place. Lawrence Lepard is well qualified as a guide to this era. His history, first in the Venture Capital world in the 1980s, and later as a fund manager, has given him a front-row seat to the whole historical process. Most people don't have the time to follow these things very closely, or the expertise to judge them. About the best they can do is read certain business journalists. Fund managers have both the time (it's part of their job) and also the expertise, enough expertise to point out where the journalists are wrong, missing the main points, or, often, biased by certain interests. My favorite account of the crisis of 1907 was that of Jesse Livermore, one of the largest speculators of the time. Unfortunately for the rest of us, fund managers are often very busy, far too busy to write books. Ray Dalio, after his retirement from daily management of a large hedge fund, has benefited us with several insightful books. (His latest book, How Countries Go Broke, is due June 3.) I hope other fund managers also feel inspired. Lepard begins his story around the introduction of the Federal Reserve in 1913, which followed the introduction of similar monopoly central banks around the world in the late 19th century. Immediately afterward, with the outbreak of World War I, these central banks were pressed to help with war financing efforts, with the result that floating fiat currencies erupted across the global landscape. But things really took a turn for the worse in 1971, when a combination of abject incompetence, and also a spreading enthusiasm for using monetary distortion to attempt to manage the macroeconomy (President Nixon wanted to be re-elected in 1972), resulted in the outbreak of floating fiat currencies around the world again, even in the midst of peace, balanced budgets and unprecedented prosperity. There is a lot to tell along the way, taking things up through the Financial Crisis of 2008, and the Covid era of 2020. Lepard's expertise shows through, as his brief descriptions hit on the most important points and correct conclusions. The 2020 period, in which central banks around the world engaged in unprecedented monetary expansion, showed their increasing willingness to essentially 'run the printing presses' whenever things got tough. Unfortunately, along the way, they also showed Congress (and other governments worldwide) that no real discipline is needed, because every problem can ultimately be solved with the central bank printing press. The natural conclusion of such logic is a Big Print somewhere down the line here, and maybe not too far away. The fact of the matter is, debt/GDP ratios have become so high, throughout the developed world, that the 10%+ interest rates of the early 1980s are no longer tolerable. Even at 6%, with a 100% debt/GDP ratio, that implies 6%-of-GDP in debt service costs alone, on top of 'primary deficits' (perhaps 3%-4%) driven by unreformed 'mandatory spending' programs such as Medicare and Social Security. Either a decline in currency value, or 'monetary inflation' as we called it in our recent book Inflation, or even more direct purchases of government bonds by central banks, may become necessary to inflate away the existing debt, and finance continued deficits at tolerable rates. Unfortunately, coming this far, Lepard loses the plot entirely toward the end of the book, championing Bitcoin as some kind of improved 'Sound Money' system. It is not. The idea is that Bitcoin's supply is limited, so that wanton 'increases in the money supply' can't come about. This is true, but the reason why 'Sound Money' has always meant gold in the past, is because gold has been proven, over centuries of human experience, to be reliably stable in value. It's this stability of value that makes gold work so well as a basis for monetary systems. This error, mistaking 'stability of supply' for 'stability of value,' is an old one, going back at least to Milton Friedman's flawed proposals of the 1950s. Or, as I put it here more than a decade ago, 'Bitcoin Proves Milton Friedman's Big Plan Was A Joke.' Basically, Lepard is a bullish Bitcoin speculator. And, perhaps Bitcoin will rise in value, in coming years. It seems to be persistently popular. But it is this tendency to rise in value (or fall in value, dramatically, from time to time) that makes it unusable as a currency; and why it is not, today, used as a currency. If you want to see what a currency looks like, look at the US dollar stablecoin Tether (USDT). Since its value is linked to the dollar, we can be pretty sure that almost nobody is using it as a speculative vehicle. (Forex traders have better platforms, such as FXCM, to do their speculation on.) But, Tether has also had an enormous increase in popularity, with the number of outstanding Tether coins rising from $2 billion in 2019 to $153 billion today. It is popular because it works pretty well, as a kind of monetary alternative. Bitcoin and gold are not really competitors. They are completely different. If gold is a pretty good hammer, to hit the nail of Stable Currency Value, Bitcoin is not a better or worse hammer. It is more like a lemon meringue pie. But, if you are wondering why an experienced hedge fund manager might be bullish on Bitcoin today, Lepard will give you an excellent list of arguments. For now, gold-based stablecoins have not been very popular. They still look like Tether in 2019. Even Tether's own gold alternative, Tether Gold (XAUT), still has a sub-$1 billion market cap. But, since USDT Tether is linked to the US dollar, Tether's value would also fall, in some kind of 'Big Print' situation. Around that time, people might become more serious in their search for monetary alternatives that achieve the ideal of Stable Value. Neither Tether nor Bitcoin would qualify.
Associated Press
14 hours ago
- Business
- Associated Press
Turmoil, worry swirl over cuts to key federal agencies as hurricane season begins
WASHINGTON (AP) — With predictions for a busy hurricane season beginning Sunday, experts in storms and disasters are worried about something potentially as chaotic as the swirling winds: Massive cuts to the federal system that forecasts, tracks and responds to hurricanes. Experts are alarmed over the large-scale staff reductions, travel and training restrictions and grant cut-offs since President Donald Trump took office at both the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which prepares for and responds to hurricanes, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which tracks and forecasts them. 'My nightmare is a major catastrophic storm hitting an area that is reeling from the impact of all of this nonsense from the Trump administration and people will die. And that could happen in Florida, that could happen in Texas, that could happen in South Carolina,' said Susan Cutter, the director of the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina. Representatives of both NOAA and FEMA say the agencies are prepared. Experts: DOGE cuts diminish FEMA About 2,000 full-time staff have left FEMA since Trump took office in January, a loss of roughly one-third of the agency's full-time workforce, amid Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) mandated cuts. Scholars who study emergency management are concerned by both the reduction in capacity and the 'brain drain' of experienced staff. 'There's really been a brain drain within FEMA in addition to the loss of overall employees,' said Samantha Montano, who teaches emergency management at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy. She noted that many who left were in critical management positions. The agency is run by an acting chief, David Richardson, a former Marine Corps officer who served overseas and worked as the Department of Homeland Security's assistant secretary for countering weapons of mass destruction. He does not appear to have any experience in managing disasters. Emergency management requires knowing where to get things, who to call, how things work and how to get it done quickly — which comes from experience and establishing relationships with state officials, Montano and Cutter said. What's happening reminds former Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Craig Fugate of 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina devastated Louisiana and exposed inexperienced and poorly prepared governments at all levels, especially the then-FEMA chief who came from a horse-rearing association. Fugate said he's especially worried about top experienced disaster people leaving FEMA. FEMA canceled various emergency management trainings this spring, moved others online and restricted travel to events such as the National Hurricane Conference. Some trainings have resumed. 'Given the reduction in staffing, being unable to do trainings, participate in conferences, there's potential that the federal government's ability is diminished,'' said former Florida Emergency Management chief Bryan Koon, now president of the disaster preparedness firm IEM. FEMA has also cut disaster resilience programs. Making areas more survivable saves up to $13 for every dollar spent, said Lori Peek, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. The federal government promises to be ready for hurricane season, which runs through November. 'FEMA is shifting from bloated DC-centric dead weight to a lean, deployable disaster force that empowers state actors to provide relief for their citizens,' Associate FEMA Administrator Geoff Harbaugh said in a email. 'FEMA is fully activated in preparation for hurricane season.' FEMA's relationship with states Richardson promised to push more responsibilities to the states. He warned that the agency will only do what the law requires and shift more costs to states. But Koon noted that states haven't budgeted for FEMA's changes, adding: 'The biggest issue right now is just the uncertainty.' Some states — which coordinate disaster operations — are experienced in catastrophes, have well trained staff and will do fine, such as Texas and Florida, Fugate said. But it's the poorer states that worry the experts. The feds often pick up the entire bill in big disasters and most of it in smaller ones. In the Trump administration, disaster declarations have been denied or delayed. When disaster declarations were issued for nine states last week, some had been pending for two months and others were only partially approved. 'We've just relied on FEMA for so much for so long and not knowing who's going to fill the gap and how we're going to fill it is really scary,' said University at Albany emergency management professor Jeannette Sutton. Hurricane center dodges NOAA cuts NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, has undergone a series of dramatic job cuts, with some people then reinstated. A sizable chunk of the weather service's 121 local field offices as of late March had vacancy rates of more than 20%, what's seen by outsiders as a critical level of understaffing. Local weather offices are crucial in helping people translate national warnings into what to do locally. 'It should be all hands on deck and we're being hollowed out,' former NWS director Louis Uccellini said. But the National Hurricane Center, which tracks and warns of hurricanes in the Atlantic, Pacific and Caribbean, has been spared. Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham and National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said the agency is prepared for the season with the Miami-based storm center fully staffed and so are the planes that fly into storms. For the first time this year, the hurricane center will incorporate artificial intelligence into forecasting because it has shown to improve predictions generally, Brennan said. 'Our services have never been better,' Graham said. 'Our ability to serve this country has never been better. And it will be this year as well.' But beyond the hurricane center, weather balloons launches have been curtailed because of lack of staffing. In some places, balloon launches have dropped from twice a day to once a day. NOAA hopes to get more balloons launched if needed, Brennan said. Data from the balloons is crucial for understanding steering currents and needed for forecasts, Uccellini said. He said when hurricanes threatened during his tenure he would order the launch of several extra balloons in the Great Plains to help figure out if storms would hit the United States. 'Hurricane forecasts, I'm expecting not to be as accurate this year because of that lack of balloon data,″ said former NOAA meteorologist Jeff Masters, now at Yale Climate Connections. ___ Aoun Angueira reported from San Diego. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
Daily Mail
14 hours ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
EXCLUSIVE DOGE loses its head Elon Musk but his 'super-genius' nerd army troops are now inside the deep state
Elon Musk is loosening his grip on the Department of Government Efficiency but as his followers have scattered, many have been absorbed into the federal government with the hopes of continuing the mission. The group of young 'super-geniuses' who stepped away from prominent jobs or their pursuit of a college degree volunteered for working long hours, through weekends, sleeping in their offices, and earned a renegade reputation. 'They're doing a hell of a job, it's an amazing job they're doing,' President Trump said. 'You know that force is building, I call it the force of super-geniuses,' he said in February. But with Musk's exit Friday, the days of DOGE in the spotlight have come to an end. 'DOGE is Done,' former Trump advisor Steve Bannon told the Daily Mail on the day of Musk's departure, tying up the Elon-run effort. As Trump bid farewell to Musk in the Oval Office, the billionaire wore a shirt describing himself as the 'Dogefather,' indicating his desire to be remembered as the father of a political movement he hoped would continue. 'This is not the end of DOGE but really the beginning,' he said, promising that the DOGE team would only get stronger. The president agreed. 'Elon's really not leaving, he's going to be back and forth i think ... it's his baby,' Trump said. Today, DOGE employees have been sent to different departments, and are quietly working within the system. Some of them view themselves as more missionaries than mercenaries, and even as Musk's public role fades, they expect the work to go on. The work of cutting government waste and dismantling the 'administrative state,' one of Bannon's biggest priorities, would continue in the Office of Management and Budget which is 'where DOGE is housed' to begin with, he said. OMB director, Russ Vought, who helped co-author Project 2025, remains engaged with the efforts, but ultimately the traditional hierarchy of the federal government has snapped back into place. Some of Trump's most visible cabinet members view the DOGE brand as a net positive, as they have worked to implement it into their departments. One DOGE 'agent' told Fox News host Jesse Watters in an interview that his work was thriving at the State Department with Secretary Marco Rubio. 'There are people in the State Department that will stop you, in all the agencies that we've been to that will stop you in the hallways or write emails and say I was scared to write this or I don't know if you were interested in this but they usually have great ideas, they usually have the best ideas,' he said. 'They often have the best ideas.' Department of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a memo on Friday giving the department's DOGE team 'the opportunity to provide input on all unclassified contracts' he noted proudly on Thursday. Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who famously clashed with Musk at the White House, has absorbed the DOGE effort into his department. 'The 'E' in DOGE is efficiency,' Bessent said in an interview. 'It's not elimination. It's not extinction. We are trying to make the government do better for the American people and right-size it.' The White House confirmed that the Trump administration would continue the job of DOGE in Musk's absence — even though it would effectively be the federal government. 'The DOGE leaders are each and every member of the president's cabinet and each and the president himself,' White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday. The outsiders of DOGE have now been absorbed into the government or politely decided to leave. With the departure of its founder comes the end of the myth that Musk created - that somehow a group of outsider tech geniuses could fix the problems and root out government corruption and waste. Musk's efforts were impossible to ignore, fueled by a an excited MAGA base that was delighted with his antics. 'What is it you say you do here?' he asked, channeling the film Office Space by sending government employees an order to email him to prove their worth by asking them what they had accomplished that week. The decision to shutter USAID entirely won the respect from even the most cynical political interests, as cutting off the slush-fund for so many non-profits connected to left-wing causes signaled a major victory. At the White House, Musk's appearances at cabinet meetings symbolized the uncanny clash of two worlds - buttoned up bureaucrats vs the more free ranging tech genius of Silicon Valley. 'Even my hat has a hat,' Musk said, putting one of Trump's Gulf of America hats on top of his existing MAGA hat. 'Elon, I love the double hat, but he's the only one can do that, and get away with it,' Trump said, shaking his head. Musk's untraditional antics became the fodder of legends for some and cringe for others. 'I have become meme,' Musk declared at CPAC in February, wearing sunglasses and welding a bright shiny chainsaw given to him by Argentine President Javier Milei. 'This is the chainsaw for bureaucracy!' he shouted waving it in the air with enthusiasm. 'Yeah!' Musk was entranced by Milei's ability to capture the imaginations of not only his country but the entire world, as the chainsaw welding wild haired libertarian delivered a victory in 2023 against all odds. When Milei took power, he cut the number of government ministries, fired over 40,000 government employees, lowered inflation, cut reduced government spending, and dismantled large parts of the federal bureaucracy. Imagine what the United States, the birthplace of the idea of limited government could accomplish. But Musk's dreams of single-handedly slashing $2 trillion from the federal government fell short. It was limited government that ended up as the biggest block to Musk's dreams. Musk's experiment demonstrated that the power of the executive branch to make significant cuts is limited. Only Congress can deliver the trillions of dollars in savings that Musk so desperately wanted. After all, it is Congress that controls the power of the purse. With the dream of DOGE established, Musk indicated he was ready to leave. 'That's it really,' he said at the conclusion of his remarks on Friday, shrugging his shoulders.
Yahoo
18 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump awards Elon Musk a golden key for his DOGE work as he gives Musk an Oval Office sendoff
President Donald Trump gives tech billionaire Elon Musk a gold-colored key for his work establishing the "Department of Government Efficiency," which sought to layoff federal workers and close government agencies to achieve cost savings.
