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Newsweek
25-04-2025
- Business
- Newsweek
US Recession Seems Likely, Nobel-Winning Economist Says
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman warns that President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff policies—including imposing and pausing various tariffs as well as changing rates—make a U.S. recession seem "likely." Newsweek has reached out to Krugman for further comment via email on Friday. Why It Matters President Donald Trump largely campaigned on economic and immigration policies, pledging to levy numerous tariffs and increase U.S. manufacturing, as well as cracking down on illegal immigration. Trump's tariffs and shakeup of global trade has rattled global and domestic markets, with Wall Street tanking over the past month, marking the worst days for the U.S. stock markets since 2020. Markets later surged after Trump paused a broad set of retaliatory tariffs, but many businesses and consumers remain in limbo as the current economic policy remain uncertain. Krugman's latest warning, which has been echoed by leading financial institutes, highlights the risk that policy volatility could tip the country into an economic downturn. Many economists, financial firms, Democrats, and some Republicans have warned that Trump's tariff policy would spark a recession, while the Trump administration has not ruled out the possibility, noting the transition period will be marked with some market "disruption." What To Know Krugman, who won the Nobel Prize in economic sciences in 2008, said during an April 23 episode of a Goldman Sachs podcast that Trump's tariff policy, and the way it has been delivered, is introducing severe uncertainty into the business environment. "There has been nothing like this," Krugman said, adding "the story keeps changing." Krugman has been critical of Trump's policies in the past and warned ahead of the 2024 election that the Republican nominee's economic policies would cause "economic chaos." The economist noted that what's ironic about his prediction of a likely recession is "this is not the tariff," as a "stable tariff rate would not cause a recession, but an unpredictable tariff rate that can change the next day is really a depressing effect on demand." Krugman further noted "the secret sauce of the Trump tariffs is that they are extremely uncertain. Nobody knows what they will be. Nobody knows what comes next." Paul Krugman, Nobel laureate in Economics, Distinguished Professor at the Graduate Center, CUNY, and New York Times columnist discussion with Mayor de Blasio participates (not seen) on social and economic inequality with in Paul Krugman, Nobel laureate in Economics, Distinguished Professor at the Graduate Center, CUNY, and New York Times columnist discussion with Mayor de Blasio participates (not seen) on social and economic inequality with in Louise Wateridge / Pacific Press/SIPA/ AP Images Trump has repeatedly announced, imposed, paused and reimposed a series of blanket, sectoral and retaliatory tariffs. Notably, just hours after sweeping, retaliatory tariffs went into effect on April 9, he paused the majority of them. Krugman noted that these conditions are impacting business investment, consumers, and homebuilders, among others, which "is the reason why a recession seems likely." He later noted that he doesn't expect the recession to be "severe," however he noted that "if consumer spending falls off a cliff, yeah, then it can become a severe recession." Trump has urged Americans to "hang tough" amid market volatility and the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by other countries, including China. What People Are Saying Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates said during a recent NBC interview: "I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession, and I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well." "Such times are very much like the 1930s. I've studied history, and history repeats over and over again," Dalio added. "If you take tariffs, if you take debt, and the rising power challenging an existing power, and those factors—those changes in the orders, the systems—are very, very disruptive. How that's handled could produce something that's much worse than a recession, or it can be handled well." Economist Torsten Slok said in a Monday appearance on CNBC that there will "absolutely" be a recession in 2025 if tariffs "stay at these levels." President Donald Trump said in an April Truth Social post: "THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won't be easy, but the end result will be historic. We will, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!" Vice President JD Vance said in an X post earlier in April: "There is a category of DC insider who wants to fight an actual war with China but also wants China to manufacture much of our critical supply. This is insane. President Trump wants peace, but also wants fair trade and more self-reliance for the American economy." Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told reporters earlier in this month: "Tariff and trade wars have no winner. China does not want to fight these wars but is not scared of them. We will not sit idly by when the Chinese people's legitimate rights and interests are the U.S. is determined to fight a tariff and trade war, China's response will continue to the end." Cato Institute Vice President of General Economics Scott Lincicome told CNN: "Markets are relieved a bit, but I don't know how you could possibly think the U.S. is a sound, safe and stable place to invest when the president is flipping tariffs on and off like a light switch and there could be more of these things in a mere 90 days. So a bit of a reprieve, but we're definitely not out of the woods." What Happens Next Trump placed a 90-day pause on dozens of retaliatory tariffs that briefly took effect earlier in April. The administration has said dozens of countries are seeking negotiations with the U.S. Tariffs on China remain intact amid growing tensions.
New York Times
16-04-2025
- General
- New York Times
Andrew A. Beveridge, Who Found the Unexpected in Census Data, Dies at 79
Andrew A. Beveridge, a sociology professor and demographer who mined arcane census data to inform urban planning decisions, court rulings on racial desegregation and news coverage that identified emerging population trends, died on April 10 in Washington. He was 79. The cause was a heart attack he suffered while attending the annual Population Association of America meeting at the Marriott Marquis hotel, his wife, Fredrica Beveridge, said. Dr. Beveridge, who lived in Bronxville, N.Y., was a professor emeritus of sociology at Queens College and the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, where he served as chairman of the sociology department from 2006 to 2018. He also directed the university's Applied Social Research program and helped establish its Institute for Demographic Research. In 1999, he and the software engineer Ahmed Lacevic founded a data-driven academic research group called Social Explorer. Eight years later, they turned that think tank into a company that uses interactive maps and other online tools to translate raw statistics into relevant population projections, offering guidance to public policymakers, nonprofit institutions, scholars, journalists and businesses. Dr. Beveridge and his teams at City University and at Social Explorer worked with reporters and editors from The New York Times, beginning in 1993, to explore social trends and the changing demographic profile of New York and the nation. That collaboration yielded a number of insights, most notably that the median income of Black households in Queens, the city's quintessential middle-class borough, had surpassed that of white New Yorkers there; that income gaps among the city's residents exceeded those in some undeveloped countries; that the historic phenomenon of white flight had not only slowed, but reversed; and that Venezuelans accounted for the largest number of new immigrants in New York. Among his books was 'New York and Los Angeles: An Uncertain Future' (2013), edited with David Halle, a sociology professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. 'Andy was a champion for the national community of census-data users,' Joseph J. Salvo, the former chief demographer and director of the population division of New York's Department of City Planning, said in an interview. 'He informed debates about the population of the nation, the state and the city with his keen eye for patterns in the data and a sixth sense for anomalies — things that just did not make sense,' Mr. Salvo continued. 'When one appeared, he would work tirelessly with his many colleagues to address the issue and propose solutions.' John H. Mollenkopf, a distinguished professor of political science and sociology at CUNY and the director of the Center for Urban Research at the Graduate Center, said in an email: 'Andy was not afraid to question the received wisdom or call out the experts when he thought they were doing something wrong or silly. And he usually got them to rethink their approach.' Andrew Alan Beveridge was born on April 27, 1945, in Madison, Wis. His father, Jacob Beveridge, was a salesman; his mother was Bonnie Belle (Porter) Beveridge. Dr. Beveridge began his higher education at the California Institute of Technology, intent on a career in science and math. In his sophomore year, he transferred to Yale University, where he earned a bachelor's degree in economics in 1967, a Master of Philosophy in sociology in 1971 and a doctorate in sociology in 1973. In 1970, he married Fredrica Rudell, who went on to become a professor of marketing at Iona College (now Iona University) in New Rochelle, N.Y., and the secretary-treasurer of Social Explorer. Dr. Beveridge worked at Columbia University, as an assistant and associate professor, from 1973 to 1981, when he joined Queens College and the Graduate Center. He retired in 2020. In the late 1980s, he served as president of the Yonkers Board of Education and helped oversee the court-ordered desegregation of the city's school system. At the time, he said that the order had forced the city to fund educational improvements that otherwise would not have happened. In addition to his wife, he is survived by their daughter, Sydney Beveridge, and a granddaughter. As a go-to sociologist, Dr. Beveridge was so knowledgeable that during a conversation on almost any subject he was bound to digress. 'What started as a quick comment might turn into a five-minute riff on zoning codes in 1970s Yonkers, heteroscedasticity or the demographic history of East Flatbush,' Mr. Musslewhite said. 'You went along because he was always fascinating.'
