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Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
U.S. soybean exports risk 20% drop without improved China deal
By Sybille de La Hamaide GENEVA (Reuters) -U.S. soybean exports may drop 20% and prices will plunge if the United States and China fail to resolve their trade dispute limiting U.S. soybeans from their largest market, agribusiness consultancy AgResource said on Wednesday. The temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war, announced on Monday, would not help U.S. farmers revive soy sales in China as Chinese duties, even reduced to 10% from 145%, remained too high to make U.S. soybeans competitive, analysts and exporters said on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva. U.S. soybean exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a substantive deal, AgResource President Dan Basse said. Meanwhile U.S. corn exports could shed 13% to 2.4 billion bushels, he said. "It's important that any U.S.-China trade deal happens by late summer or the export forecast will become reality, pressuring U.S. farm income. The clock is ticking," Basse told Reuters. Prices would also take a hit. In the absence of a deal, Basse sees U.S. soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade falling as low as $9 per bushel, compared to $10.6 a bushel traded on Wednesday. In contrast, if a deal brought tariffs back to their previous level, soybean prices could surge as high as $13 a bushel, he added. "We are creating a major advantage for other origins, mainly Brazil, and origins like Argentina," Alejandra Casillo, president of the North American Export Grain Association, told Reuters, adding that even a 10% tariff would halt U.S. grain exports to China. China has been a critical market for U.S. farmers, representing more than half of U.S. soybean exports in the most recent marketing year. However, American farmers worry the tariff pause will not be enough to help them, as Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face any Chinese tariffs. China, the world's largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil. Corn and wheat would fall as low as $3.70 for corn from $4.40 on Wednesday, and $4.90 from $5.56 for wheat, he said. Sign in to access your portfolio
New York Post
14-05-2025
- Business
- New York Post
US soybean exports may fall 20% without China trade deal, AgResource says
US soybean exports may drop 20% and the prices paid to farmers will plunge if the United States and China fail to resolve their trade dispute limiting US soybeans from their largest market, agribusiness consultants AgResource said on Wednesday. The temporary truce in the US-China trade war, announced on Monday, would not help US farmers revive soy sales in China as Chinese duties, even reduced to 10% from 145%, remained too high to make US soybeans competitive, AgResource President Dan Basse told Reuters. US soybean exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a substantive deal, Basse said on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva. 3 US soybean exports may drop 20% if a trade deal with China is not reached. Getty Images At the same time, US soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade SX25 could fall as low as $9 per bushel, compared to $10.6 a bushel traded on Wednesday, Basse said. 'It's important that any US-China trade deal happen by late summer or the export forecast will become reality, pressuring US farm income. The clock is ticking,' he said. In contrast, if a deal brought tariffs back to their previous level, soybean prices could surge as high as $13 a bushel, he added. 'The truce helps but Brazil will have an additional 20 million metric tons of soybeans to export on September 1,' Basse said. China has been a critical market for US farmers representing more than half of US soybean exports in the most recent marketing year. However, American farmers worry the tariff pause will not be enough to help them, as Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face any Chinese tariffs. 3 Dan Duffy, a farmer in Illinois, planted soybean seeds with his brother on April 28. Getty Images 3 US soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade SX25 could fall as low as $9 per bushel. JUSTIN LANE/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock China, the world's largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil. In other crops, corn and wheat would be less impacted but Chicago prices would also fall sharply, to as low as $3.70 for corn CZ25 from $4.40 on Wednesday and $4.9 WZ25 from $5.56, he said.
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US soybean exports may fall 20% without China trade deal, AgResource says
By Sybille de La Hamaide GENEVA (Reuters) -U.S. soybean exports may drop 20% and the prices paid to farmers will plunge if the United States and China fail to reach a deal in their trade dispute limiting U.S. soybeans from its largest market, agribusiness consultants AgResource said on Wednesday. U.S. soybeans exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a deal, AgResource President Dan Basse told Reuters on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva. At the same time, U.S. soybeans farm gate prices - the average price paid to farmers - may collapse to $9.10 bushel in 2025/26, compared to $10.25 a bushel forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Basse said. "It's important that any U.S./China trade deal happen by late summer or the export forecast will become reality pressuring U.S. farm income. The clock is ticking," he said. The temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war, announced on Monday, would not help U.S. farmers revive soy sales in China as Chinese duties, even reduced to 10% from 145%, remained too high to make U.S. soybeans competitive. "The truce helps but Brazil will have an additional 20 million metric tons of soybeans to export on September 1," Basse said. China has been a critical market for U.S. farmers representing more than half of U.S. soybean exports in the most recent marketing year. However, American farmers worry the tariff pause will not be enough to help them, as Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face any Chinese tariffs. China, the world's largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil. Sign in to access your portfolio
