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Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
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Soviet stockpiles won't last forever. Will the Russians have enough artillery for new major offensive campaigns in Ukraine?
An insider told The Economist that Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation, stated during the talks in Istanbul that Russia was ready for a protracted war. To illustrate his point, he referenced the Great Northern War between Russia and Sweden, which lasted 21 years. One of its most famous episodes was Peter the Great's order to dismantle church bells and melt them down for artillery, which was in short supply. Today, artillery is again in short supply, but since the Great Northern War, the technology for producing artillery barrels has, to put it mildly, changed a tad. Therefore, the Russians must now supply it to the front, not through Peter the Great's methods but by tapping into their Cold War stockpiles. As with tanks, these stockpiles are not endless. Meanwhile, Russia's production of new artillery and barrels appears unable to keep up with the demands of the front and the rate of losses. Moscow's difficulties in bringing new artillery systems into service do not mean that Russian forces will stop firing any time soon or that Ukraine is on the verge of victory. However, artillery is a cornerstone of Russian offensive tactics. Understanding the state of Russian artillery production is essential for assessing its actual ability to ramp up or at least sustain the current pace of the offensive in the medium to long term, which is an important bargaining chip for Moscow at the negotiating table. [BANNER1] Although most of the damage at the front is now being inflicted by first-person view drones, the role of artillery in combat has not diminished. In fact, its importance has grown. Artillery performs not only conventional fire support tasks but is also integrated into the reconnaissance-strike tandem network, delivering precision strikes on targets detected by tactical drones. Thanks to its range, power and ability to operate in all weather conditions, artillery remains a crucial element of firepower. Its effective use is key to both deterring and breaking through enemy defences. Russia possesses one of the largest artillery forces in the world. According to the Military Balance analytical guide, Russia had around 2,500 artillery systems of various types in service before launching the full-scale war against Ukraine. Most of these were highly mobile self-propelled artillery systems (SPAS). As of early 2024, Russia has increased the number of artillery systems deployed at the front to over 4,700, according to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the world's oldest and the UK's leading defence and security think tank. Russian forces fire many times more shells per day than Ukrainian defence forces. For example, during the offensive campaign in early 2024, the ratio was approximately eight to one. Although this gap has narrowed as Ukraine has secured ammunition supplies, Moscow's advantage in artillery firepower remains significant. Russia's dominance in artillery has enabled it to employ a barrage fire tactic, where Ukrainian defensive positions are relentlessly bombarded with heavy fire until they are reduced to tatters. To achieve this, Russia relies on three key components: operational artillery systems, spare barrels and ammunition. Shells come not only from Russia's own production, which yields over two million large-calibre rounds annually, but also from supplies provided by North Korea and Iran. Ukraine's Defence Intelligence reported that the regime of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un has transferred more than five million large-calibre munitions to Russia since 2023. This has enabled Moscow to sustain an extremely high intensity of artillery fire in Ukraine. The artillery systems and barrels were mainly drawn from Russia's Cold War-era stockpiles, allowing thousands of howitzers to be rapidly deployed, despite the devastating losses at the front. Russian MSTA-S self-propelled artillery systems. Photo: open sources Lacking comparable numbers of ammunition and howitzers, Ukraine's Armed Forces have focused on counter-battery warfare, i.e. destroying Russian artillery. To achieve this, the Ukrainian military has employed reconnaissance drones, counter-battery radars and Western-standard precision artillery systems, whose superior range and accuracy help offset their smaller numbers. [BANNER2] In 2023, FPV drones and heavy quadcopters were added to Ukraine's counter-battery arsenal, becoming new and effective tools for destroying Russian artillery. In response, Russian troops began adapting by enhancing the fortifications and layout of artillery positions, improving camouflage and equipping their vehicles with additional protection, particularly anti-drone meshes. However, they have not found the definitive solution. As losses among self-propelled artillery mounted, the Russian military increasingly turned to towed artillery, which took a leading role in their arsenal. Towed systems are less detectable by reconnaissance, easier to produce and have proved reasonably effective for positional warfare amid a growing shortage of equipment. A Russian 122mm D-74 howitzer, produced in 1955, positioned in a battlefield emplacement. Photo: screenshot from a Russian news report Oryx, a Dutch warfare research group which tracks equipment losses based on visual evidence, estimates that Russia has lost around 1,500 artillery systems (both self-propelled and towed) so far. In contrast, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reports nearly 28,000 Russian artillery losses. Why such a large discrepancy? Firstly, losses of artillery are much harder to confirm visually than those of armoured vehicles, meaning many do not appear in OSINT analysts' statistics. Artillery systems are typically positioned far from the front line and are well camouflaged – hidden in forested areas, dug in, or covered with nets – making it difficult to obtain photo or video evidence of their destruction. Since OSINT resources like Oryx rely solely on open-source visual evidence, they record only those losses that can be identified in photos or videos. In contrast, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have access to a broader range of intelligence tools, particularly radio intercepts, operational data and drone footage, which enable them to confirm Russian losses without needing overt visual proof. The second factor is the methodology used for counting. Ukraine's General Staff includes mortars in its overall artillery loss figures, as they are formally classified as artillery. Mortars are much smaller and rarely come into the view of drones. It is clear that Russian artillery losses far exceed the 1,500 visually confirmed, thanks to OSINT analysts who use their own funds to purchase satellite imagery and examine Russian storage facilities. Much of the artillery has remained in the open since the Cold War. Given the vast gap between new howitzer production and battlefield losses, the Russians have begun to draw heavily on these stockpiles, either refurbishing artillery systems for service or dismantling them for spare parts. [BANNER3] OSINT analyst Jompy has estimated that in 2022, Russian storage facilities held 22,367 artillery pieces, including 17,197 towed artillery units. By 2024, that number had dropped to 9,325. With six months having passed since then, the stockpiles are likely even smaller now. At first glance, these warehouses still hold a considerable number of howitzers, with only about 60% used by the end of 2024. However, it's important to remember that not all artillery in reserve is fit for combat use. The Russians prioritise removing the most repairable equipment from warehouses first, leaving the more problematic pieces for later. This is precisely the approach they are taking with heavy armoured vehicles. This suggests that much of the artillery in storage facilities is now obsolete or in poor condition. Some systems dating back to World War II are still in the warehouses but cannot be used without lengthy and costly repairs. Russian artillery storage facility Planovaya as of 2022 Russian artillery storage facility Planovaya as of 2025 This large-scale withdrawal of artillery from warehouses is driven not only by the need to replace losses but also by the exhaustion of barrels. The thing is that artillery has a limited service life, mainly defined by the lifespan of the barrel – the maximum number of shots it can fire before needing replacement. Consequently, some equipment from storage facilities may be withdrawn solely to replenish these vital consumable parts. A barrel's service life depends on several factors: the intensity of fire, the quality of maintenance, the condition of the ammunition and the crew's professionalism. For instance, 122mm systems like the D-30 or 2S1 Gvozdika have a service life of around 30,000 rounds, while 152mm howitzers such as the MSTA-S last only a few thousand rounds. The 203mm 2S7 Pion self-propelled artillery systems have a service life of about 500 rounds. These figures are approximate and based on textbooks. Actual service life in combat conditions can vary significantly. Intensive artillery use causes rapid barrel wear, which reduces firing accuracy, diminishes system effectiveness and even raises the risk of detonation within the barrel. This has increased the demand for reserve howitzers from warehouses, which are either deployed directly or dismantled to repair other units. An additional factor accelerating the deterioration of Russian artillery barrels has been the use of low-quality ammunition. The Russian military has repeatedly criticised the shells supplied by North Korea. According to Russian soldiers, the poor quality caused barrel ruptures, which not only disabled the equipment but also put crews at risk. A Russian D-20 howitzer destroyed due to an explosion of a shell supplied by North Korea. Photo: Russian Telegram channels A certain artillery deficit is also indicated by the fact that Russian forces have started deploying systems hardly used before 2022. One example is the 130mm M-46 gun, developed in the 1950s. Due to its non-standard calibre for the modern Russian military, its use had been minimal. However, the urgent need to increase artillery firepower has forced the Russians to bring the M-46 back into service. This was made possible mainly by ammunition supplies of the appropriate calibre from Iran and North Korea which allowed this outdated howitzer to be fired. These are not isolated cases. Artillery pieces and howitzers such as the D-20 and M-46, both manufactured in the 1950s, are increasingly disappearing from satellite images of storage facilities. OSINT researcher HighMarsed reported that as of 2022, there were about 600 M-46 guns at Russian storage facilities, and since then, 380 have been taken away. Systems developed during World War II have also been spotted at the front. Recent photos have surfaced showing an M-30 122mm howitzer, which was in service in the Soviet military in the 1940s. A 122mm howitzer M-30 used by Russian forces in Ukraine In 2024, Sergei Chemezov, head of the Russian state-owned defence conglomerate Rostec, claimed that production and refurbishment of self-propelled artillery in Russia had increased tenfold and towed artillery fourteenfold since 2022. Here again, we encounter the manipulative phrasing of "production and refurbishment", which also encompasses the retrieval of vehicles from Soviet-era warehouses. The main bottleneck in new artillery production is barrels. They require high-precision heavy machine tools and a number of key components. Setting up such mass production is not an easy task. According to a rough estimate by the Kiel Institute, Russia produced dozens of new artillery systems each quarter in 2023, reaching capacities of 100 and 112 units in the first and second quarters of 2024 respectively. RUSI estimates that barrel production could reach "hundreds" per year. However, this output is insufficient to cover Russian military losses and the rapid depletion of barrels on the battlefield. If this estimate is close to reality, it roughly matches the known production volumes of Ukrainian Bohdana self-propelled artillery systems. It is difficult to objectively assess the volume of Russian howitzer production, as news reports from factories often focus on individual sites without disclosing the overall scale of production. Several key Russian plants are responsible for producing new artillery systems. These are Plant No. 9, which specialises in manufacturing artillery barrels for 122mm D-30A howitzers and tank guns; Uraltransmash, which produces 152mm MSTA-S self-propelled artillery systems; and Motovilikhinskie Zavody, which operates a complete production cycle for artillery systems such as the 2S1 Gvozdika, 2S3 Akatsiya, 2A36 Giatsint-B, 2S5 Giatsint-S, and Msta-B. However, a look at the history of Russian artillery production reveals that the country's factories were far from being well-prepared for Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the 1980s, during the development of the 152mm MSTA-S, Uraltransmash's existing facilities proved insufficient, leading to plans for a separate Sterlitamak Machine-Building Plant. However, due to internal competition, Uraltransmash's management had instead pushed for creating a new workshop worth RUB 600 million (approximately US$7.5 million) within their existing plant. It remains unclear whether this workshop was ever completed, while the Sterlitamak plant that initially produced the MSTA-S ceased operations in 2013 and was subsequently demolished. Sterlitamak Machine-Building Plant Motovilikhinskie Zavody has been in bankruptcy since 2018. This doesn't mean it has completely ceased operations, as Ukrainian drone strikes are targeting it for a reason, though it nonetheless reflects the facility's overall condition. A Russian MSTA-S at Uraltransmash Against this backdrop, the appearance of new wheeled artillery systems such as the Malva and Giatsint-K rather than traditional tracked models is interesting. According to Pavel Luzin, an expert on the Russian defence industry, the shift to wheeled chassis stems from a shortage of tracked platforms. For instance, the MSTA-S relies on the T-90 tank chassis, which is also needed for main battle tank production. This competition for resources complicates the mass production of such artillery systems. A wheeled self-propelled vehicle is a good choice in its own right. Wheeled chassis are significantly easier to manufacture, require fewer costly components than tracked ones, and do not compete with tank production for resources. However, the mere appearance of these new artillery systems does not indicate a significant increase in barrel production capacity. Firstly, both models only entered mass production in early 2024. Secondly, Andrei Tarasenko, author of a specialised Telegram channel on armoured vehicles, spotted an old barrel from the Giatsint-B mounted on a Giatsint-K, likely taken from storage. This once again highlights the shortage of barrels in Russia. [BANNER4] A barrel from the Giatsint-B gun with a locking stop used on the Giatsint-K self-propelled artillery system. Photo: It is clear that the Ukrainian defence forces will never be able to physically destroy all Russian artillery systems. Russia is attempting to offset losses and barrel wear by somewhat increasing production, continuing to withdraw equipment from warehouses and importing artillery systems from North Korea. The quality of these imports is questionable, but they are present and operational. Ukrainian forces also struggle with comparable issues, up to and including the use of World War II-era artillery such as American M114 systems. Unlike Russia, Kyiv does not have access to large Soviet-era reserves and remains heavily reliant on external shell supplies. This results in a persistent disadvantage in artillery capability for Ukraine. However, since 2022, Ukraine has developed a robust and scalable production line for Bohdana self-propelled artillery systems, including both barrels and the machinery needed to produce them. In addition, numerous foreign companies support the Ukrainian military, which provides significantly greater potential for scaling up production. For example, France supplies 90% of its barrel production to Ukraine. Moreover, Ukrainian long-range artillery, particularly Western-supplied systems, is often superior in quality to its Russian counterparts, which is another crucial factor. This situation suggests that, over time and with further depletion of Russian stockpiles, Ukraine could eventually achieve at least parity with Russia in terms of artillery firepower. However, this prospect depends on consistent Western ammunition supplies to the Ukrainian defence forces, something that has been called into question for political reasons. M-46, D-30, MSTA-B and Giatsint-B units being transported after being removed from storage [BANNER5] To avoid a collapse in its artillery capabilities, Russia will likely have to scale back the intensity of shelling and compensate for the reduced firepower through other means, particularly the use of FPV drones. The use of fibre-optic drones in Ukrainian territories bordering Russia has increased, said Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for Ukraine's State Border Guard Service. The situation is the same on the Novopavlivka front, as reported by Viktor Trehubov, spokesman for the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group. The growing reliance of Russian forces on FPV drones amid a gradual decline in artillery power should not be underestimated. Ukraine must respond by reinforcing frontline defences with appropriate countermeasures. Meanwhile, the steady depletion of Russia's artillery capabilities must be factored into any assessment of its capacity to mount large-scale new offensives. It is also important to remember that, at this very moment, thousands of Russian guns remain pointed at Ukrainian defenders, and there is no doubt about the combat readiness of the Russian artillery. Author: Illia Bolharyn Translation: Artem Yakymyshyn Editing: Susan McDonald
New European
21-05-2025
- Politics
- New European
Putin has played Trump
The talks in Istanbul were a success for Russia. They did not lead to any ceasefire agreement and the Russian delegation insisted on Putin's previous conditions: complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from four Ukrainian regions, currently partially occupied by Russia. The Russian delegation also threatened to seize two more regions – Sumy and Kharkiv in the north east. 'If the four new Russian regions are not recognised now, in the near future, then next time there will already be six,' a member of a Russian delegation reportedly said in the negotiations room. Even then, the Russians would only consider a ceasefire, rather than a lasting peace. The Ukrainian and Russian delegations failed to achieve any major result in Istanbul last Friday, except for a prisoner swap and so, Donald Trump, obsessed with the idea of being a peacemaker and a dealmaker, decided to intervene in person and called Russian president Vladimir Putin for the third time. His hope was that he could 'stop this bloodbath'. But it looks like Putin has outplayed him – once again. Read more: Hail to the thief The Kremlin's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, reportedly said that 'Russia is prepared to fight forever', recalling the Great Northern War of 1700-1721. In that war against Sweden, Russia lost about 30,000 soldiers in 21 years, while in the current war in Ukraine, Russian losses are close to 800,000 troops in three years. To defend Kursk from Ukraine's incursion, Russia even deployed North Korean soldiers, an indication that it is running short of personnel, and that talk of an eternal fight is entirely unrealistic. But the Istanbul negotiations were still a win for Putin: they happened at the same place and in the same format as the first round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine that took place back in March 2022. Since then, Putin repeatedly insisted that the only format acceptable for Russia would be the 'renewal of Istanbul talks', which failed three years ago because for Ukraine it meant, capitulation. Now he has got his position back on track – with the help of Donald Trump, who reportedly insisted that the Ukrainian delegation should attend the meetings. Then on Monday, Putin called Trump, not from the Kremlin but from a music school in Sochi. The previous two Trump-Putin calls did not make any progress, as they both ran up against Putin's insistence that 'the root causes of this war' (i.e. Ukraine's existence as a sovereign state) should be eliminated. Trump said his two hour call with Putin went 'very well', and that 'Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War'. Later on, Putin's aid Yuri Ushakov, in fact, denied Trump's words, saying no ceasefire timeframe was discussed. Putin, in his turn, said Russia was ready to work on 'memorandum regarding a possible future peace treaty', setting out 'principles of settlement, the timing of a possible peace agreement, including a possible ceasefire for a certain period if the relevant agreements are reached'. Translation: instead of ending the war, Putin will buy the time, and it is him who will decide what new conditions to impose. Trump seems to agree, saying that he and Putin 'know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of'. This is a wake-up call for both Ukraine and Europe. It looks like the US – their strategic security partner – is trying to quit the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, having already undermined the pre-Trump principle 'nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine'. Now Donald Trump is repeating Putin's conditions, being blinded by the prospect of deals with Russia, where he sees a 'tremendous opportunity' to create 'massive amounts of jobs and wealth'. But if Russia needed jobs and wealth, as well as trade with the US – it could have tried to negotiate it decades ago. Instead, since the collapse of the USSR, which Putin still considers to be the largest political catastrophe of the 20th century, Russia has been waging wars with its neighbours. Russia's wartime economy may well be undergoing stagnation and inflation at the same time, but who cares about economic progress when the main goal is to restore the Soviet Union? After more than 100 days in office, three direct phone calls to Putin and four visits to Moscow by Steve Witkoff, Trump's pro-Kremlin 'ambassador at large', Trump did not achieve a ceasefire – instead, Putin's army has launched multiple deadly barrages on Ukraine, which many Ukrainians have called in their darkly humorous way, the 'sounds of a ceasefire'. And yet, it did not lead to any firm reaction from Donald Trump. 'Whether Putin and his army will earn money for this war, depends on the US,' Volodymyr Zelensky said. Mertz has also made it clear that sending troops to Ukraine is currently not a topic for discussion. Heavily dependent on US defence technologies, Europe is promising Ukraine its unwavering support, even though its own defence capabilities are diminished. Russia's drones have already crossed the borders of EU and Nato member states, Russia's sabotage inside Europe is flourishing, including not only espionage and arson attacks but also malware and disinformation. A few days after the Trump-Putin call, Europe announced another round of sanctions on Russia, targeting the country's military and political elite. Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, posted on X: 'Europe and America are very united on this'. All of Ukraine – and Europe – will hope he is right.
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Russia demands Ukraine withdraw its troops as talks end in acrimony
Russia demanded Ukraine withdraw its troops from four Ukrainian regions annexed by Vladimir Putin as the price for a ceasefire. Negotiators sent by the Russian president for the first direct talks in three years said they expected a Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as a 'minimum'. Russia's proposals were branded 'detached from reality' by a Ukrainian diplomatic source in talks which appeared to end in acrimony. However, the negotiations yielded some progress, including the largest prisoner of war swap of the conflict so far, with 1,000 captive troops set to be exchanged 'in the coming days'. Negotiators agreed to present visions for a 'possible future ceasefire' ahead of any further talks. The Russian side also 'noted' Ukraine's demand for a face-to-face meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin, after the Russian president failed to show up. Earlier in the day, Donald Trump offered to meet Putin himself. Shortly after the talks were 'suspended', Ukrainian sources said Russia had made unreasonable demands for a military withdrawal from four contested regions. When the Ukrainian delegation complained about the demands, Russian negotiators reportedly replied: 'Next time it will be five.' Vladimir Medinsky, Russia's lead negotiator, also told Kyiv that Moscow could fight for at least another 21 years. 'We don't want war, but we're ready to fight … We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?' said Mr Medinsky, whose official role is chairman of the Interdepartmental Commission of Historical Education of Russia. The Great Northern War, fought between Russia and Sweden, lasted for 21 years from 1700 to 1721, during the rule of Peter the Great. Putin compared himself to the former Russian emperor shortly after launching his invasion. Sir Keir Starmer said the Russian position was 'clearly unacceptable' and that European leaders, Ukraine and the United States were 'closely aligning' their responses. The Prime Minister held talks with Mr Zelensky and key European allies at an EU summit in Albania while the negotiations were going on in Turkey. They said they called Mr Trump to discuss the talks, while the US president was flying back from a week of meetings in the Gulf. 'So as a result of that meeting with President Zelensky and that call with President Trump, we are now closely aligning our responses and will continue to do so,' Sir Keir said. The Prime Minister said European leaders and the US were 'aligned' in their efforts to pressure Putin to negotiate seriously about an end to the war. He said: 'The prisoner swaps is obviously a good thing that's been agreed today, the fact that the talks continue. But I think we need to be really clear in putting pressure on Putin for a ceasefire. I'm very keen to continue to put that pressure on, because we need to make sure Putin comes to the table, and his actions this week show me that he's not serious yet about peace.' The talks in Istanbul were hastily arranged after Putin called for direct talks but later refused Mr Zelensky's request to meet him in person. Ukraine's delegation, led by Rustem Umerov, the defence minister, arrived at the talks dressed in military fatigues and addressed the Russians through an interpreter, despite being fluent in Russian. The Russians were late to the meeting, which the Kremlin said it wanted to use to address the 'root causes' of the war, shorthand for maximalist demands such as demilitarising Ukraine. Ukraine, on the other hand, said the priority was to implement a full and immediate ceasefire. After the talks had broken up, speaking from the summit in Tirana, Mr Zelensky said Ukraine was ready to take 'the fastest possible steps to bring real peace' and demanded further pressure on Putin to force him to the negotiating table. 'There needs to be a strong reaction, including sanctions – especially targeting Russia's energy sector and banking system. Pressure must increase until genuine progress is made,' he said. The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were preceded by talks between the US and Kyiv's delegation, also in Istanbul. Mr Umerov, who led Ukraine's delegation, joined Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, to discuss 'real mechanisms that will lead to a just and lasting peace for Ukraine'. Mr Trump remained silent on the outcome of the talks after previously teasing he could attend. He said on Friday morning that he would like to meet Putin 'as soon as we can set it up'. 'As soon as we can set it up, I would actually leave here and go,' Mr Trump said as he wrapped up a four-day tour of the Gulf States. The Kremlin said a meeting between the two leaders was 'essential' but warned there would be no quick breakthrough. 'A summit must be set up. And it must be results-oriented because a summit is always preceded by expert negotiations, consultations, and long and intense preparations,' Putin's spokesman said. Earlier, Ursula von der Leyen vowed to keep 'increasing pressure' on Putin. 'We want peace and we have to increase the pressure until President Putin is ready for peace,' she said, confirming that work had begun on an 18th sanctions package. The EU's 17th round of sanctions, agreed this week, targets Moscow's shadow oil fleet by blacklisting 200 tankers used to dodge export curbs. Pope Leo XIV offered to host future peace talks after the Vatican's secretary of state described the outcome of the Turkey negotiations as 'tragic'. 'It's all tragic because we hoped that a process would begin, perhaps slowly, but with a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Instead, we are back to square one,' Cardinal Pietro Parolin said. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Russia tells Ukraine: We could fight another 21 years
Russia told Ukraine it could fight for at least another 21 years during peace talks that ended in acrimony in Istanbul. Vladimir Medinsky, a Kremlin aide who led the Russian delegation, said Moscow wanted peace but would fight 'however long it takes'. 'We don't want war, but we're ready to fight for a year, two, three, however long it takes. We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?' he told the Ukrainian delegation. The Great Northern War, fought between Russia and Sweden, lasted for 21 years, from 1700 to 1721 during the rule of Peter the Great. Putin has previously compared himself to the former Russian emperor. The talks, mediated by Turkey, last more than 90 minutes. The most significant outcome was an agreement on the largest prisoner of war swap of the conflict so far, with 1,000 captive troops being exchanged. However, Ukraine criticised Russia for demanding that Kyiv's forces withdraw from four regions roughly where the front line runs. When the Ukrainian delegation protested the demands to give up four regions, Russian negotiators reportedly replied: 'Next time it will be five.' Thanks for following our live coverage of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. Here's a reminder of what happened today: Talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Turkey lasted 90 minutes There were some signs of progress, including an agreement on the largest prisoner of war swap so far, but the talks did not end in a ceasefire Both sides indicated some happiness with the talks but Volodymyr Zelensky urged Ukraine's allies to pile the pressure on Putin by imposing further sanctions Sir Keir Starmer joined Mr Zelensky, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, and Donald Tusk on a phone call with Donald Trump shortly after the Istanbul talks ended We'll be back soon with more updates and analysis. A Ukrainian official has told the Telegraph that Russia sent a 'sham delegation' to peace negotiations in Istanbul, reports Jimmy Rushton. 'I think Russian delegation was a sham with no real intention to negotiate but to repeat its demands and explore whether Ukraine is ready to do more concessions,' the official told the Telegraph. 'It's good that we have nice statements from Europeans but without strong and painful steps we will not make Russia agree on real talks.' Pope Leo XIV has offered the Vatican as the venue to host future peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the Vatican's secretary of state has said. Cardinal Pietro Parolin said the outcome of Turkey peace talks were 'tragic'. 'It's all tragic because we hoped that a process would begin, perhaps slowly, but with a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Instead, we are back to square one,' he said. Russia and Ukraine ended peace talks in Istanbul largely unmoved from their previous stances. But there were some agreements made during the talks, which lasted just over 90 minutes: A large-scale prisoner swap will happen in the coming days as a confidence-building measure. 1000 prisoners will be released by each side, the largest such swap of the war Both sides will present their vision of a 'possible future ceasefire' before potential future negotiations The Russian delegation 'noted' that Volodymyr Zelensky wanted a face-to-face meeting with Vladimir Putin, stopping short of outright rejecting it, despite the Russian leader's no-show in Turkey Rustem Umerov, the Ukrainian delegation who lead negotiations in Istanbul, confirmed the points in a live press conference this afternoon. 'We want to reiterate that Ukraine wants peace,' Mr Umerov said. Another official described it as a 'tentative success' but said more progress could only be achieved if Putin and Zelensky meet. Russia and Ukraine's delegations agreed to meet again 'in principle', Ankara has said. Hakan Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister who chaired the meeting in Istanbul today, said the POW exchange agreement was indicated as a confidence-building measure. Emmanuel Macron has said it is 'unacceptable' that Russia ignored a European and US call for a ceasefire in Ukraine. It is 'unacceptable that Russia and President Putin have not responded for a second time to the demands made by the Americans, supported by Ukraine and the Europeans,' Mr Macron said alongside France's European allies, including Sir Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelensky. Russia is 'satisfied' with the results of the first direct peace talks with Ukraine in years, Moscow's top negotiator has said. 'Overall, we are satisfied with the results and ready to continue contacts,' Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky told state TV, adding that once each side had exchanged ideas on a possible ceasefire, negotiations could continue. News has slowly reached Tirana from Ukraine's Istanbul peace talks with Russia, prompting an impromptu press statement from Britain, France, Poland and Germany. Sir Keir Starmer said his fellow leaders, alongside Volodymyr Zelensky, had been on the telephone with Donald Trump to begin aligning their position on what the British Prime Minister said was a 'clearly unacceptable' Russian position in Turkey. The Telegraph has reported that Russia asked Ukraine to withdraw troops from four of its own regions, which Vladimir Putin claims are Russian, as the price for a ceasefire. It shouldn't be a surprise that Moscow is making these sorts of demands, especially after they sent virtually the same team that was used to try and force Kyiv's capitulation in the early days of the full-scale invasion. The elephant in the room remained as the questions over how Mr Trump would respond - in favour of Moscow or Kyiv. The European leaders would have you believe he's on their side, but refused to answer questions over whether the threatened package of massive sanctions would finally be unleashed. Russia and Ukraine have agreed to swap 1000 prisoners of war each, Kyiv's defence minister has said. 'We will know the date soon, but we won't talk about it yet,' Rustem Umerov said. It would represent the largest prisoner swap of the war so far. Some 500 POWs were exchanged by the two sides in April. At the time, Russia said that 246 soldiers were returned from Ukraine, and 31 wounded Ukrainian POWs were transferred in exchange for 15 wounded Russian soldiers in need of urgent medical care. Kyiv said that 277 Ukrainian 'warriors' had returned home from Russian captivity. Ukraine requested a direct meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, the official leading Kyiv's delegation said. Rustem Umerov, the Ukrainian defence minister, also said new negotiations could be announced 'soon'. Volodymyr Zelensky, Sir Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, and Donald Tusk have held a call with Donald Trump, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian president has said. The UK Prime Minister told reporters in Tirana that the leaders discussed recent peace talks with their US counterpart. 'We just had a meeting with President Zelensky and then a phone call with President Trump to discuss the developments in the negotiations today,' the British prime minister said. 'And the Russian position is clearly unacceptable, and not for the first time. 'So as a result of that meeting with President Zelensky and that call with President Trump, we are now closely aligning our responses and will continue to do so.' Talks between Russia and Ukraine ended after Kyiv refused to cede control of the four regions annexed by Vladimir Putin in 2022, as well as Crimea. Russia does not control any of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in full. In 2022, when peace talks in Istanbul failed, Russia demanded that Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk, showing how Putin's aims have expanded. Russian state TV has contradicted reports that talks with Ukraine are over. 'The negotiations are not over. The parties have taken a break,' Russian state news agency Ria Novosti said. Ukrainian sources said earlier that the talks had ended but that more could still happen. A Ukrainian official said that more talks with Russia could happen despite not being planned. 'If they receive other instructions from Moscow, then it is possible that something will happen today,' the source said after negotiations ended, adding 'so far it is not planned'. Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Vladimir Putin of being 'too afraid' to attend peace talks in Turkey. Speaking alongside Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron in Tirana, Mr Zelensky said: 'This week, we had a real chance to move toward ending the war — if only Putin hadn't been afraid to come to Türkiye. 'I was there ready for a direct meeting with him to resolve all key issues. He didn't agree to anything.' Talks between Russia and Ukraine have ended, a Turkish foreign ministry source has said. They lasted less than two hours. Russia has demanded that Ukraine withdraw from its territory during peace talks described by Kyiv as 'detached from reality'. 'Russian demands are detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed. They include ultimatums for Ukraine to withdraw from its territory for a ceasefire and other non-starters and non-constructive conditions,' a Ukrainian diplomatic source told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Sir Keir Starmer has said Vladimir Putin must 'pay the price' for not taking peace negotiations with Ukraine seriously. Speaking with European leaders at a summit in Tirana, Albania, the Prime Minister said: 'Now, having issued [an] ultimatum, we must be prepared to follow through, because if Russia won't come to negotiating table, Putin must pay the price. 'I think yesterday has already been mentioned, was further evidence that Putin is not serious about peace. Russia is dragging its feet and playing games whilst Ukraine has shown itself to be the party of peace.' 'Ukraine has showed itself to be the party of peace,' he added. The Kremlin said that a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump was essential but that preparation was needed first. Wrapping up his Gulf tour earlier on Friday, Mr Trump said he would meet Putin 'as soon as we can set it up', a day after saying that 'nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together'. 'There is no doubt that contacts between President Putin and Trump are important in the context of the Ukrainian negotiations. We, of course, agree with this thesis. The importance of this cannot be overstated,' Putin's spokesman said today. Peskov said Moscow wanted a Putin-Trump summit, but that such a meeting needed considerable advance preparation to ensure it was a success. 'A summit must be set up. And it must be results-oriented because a summit is always preceded by expert negotiations, consultations, and long and intense preparations, especially if we are talking about a summit between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States of America,' he added. Half of the Ukrainian delegation are wearing camouflage military fatigues, sitting at a table directly facing their Russian counterparts, who are in suits. The Ukrainian delegation addressed their Russian counterpart using an interpreter in the first direct peace talks in over three years. The Ukrainian officials, led by defence minister Rustem Umerov, likely speak Russian but opted to stick their native language in the talks. While both languages hold similarities, there are a number of stark differences. Use of Ukrainian shot up in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion as Moscow tried to wipe its neighbour's independence off of the map. Using their own language is a show of defiance by the Ukrainians to prove they won't curtail to the Russians. Vladimir Putin made a 'big mistake' sending a lower-ranking team of negotiators to Istanbul today, Nato's secretary general has warned. 'He knows extremely well that the ball is in his court, that he is in trouble, that he made a big mistake by sending this low-level delegation,' Mark Rutte told reporters ahead of the Ukraine-Russia meeting at the Dolmabahce Palace. 'I think all the pressure is now on Putin,' he added. 'He has to be serious about wanting peace.' Ursula von der Leyen has vowed to 'increase the pressure' until Vladimir Putin is ready for peace, saying work had begun on an 18th package of sanctions. 'We want peace and we have to increase the pressure until President Putin is ready for peace,' Ms von der Leyen told reporters at a gathering of European leaders in Tirana. Earlier this week, the EU agreed its 17th package of sanctions since the start of Putin's invasion, clamping down on its 'shadow' oil fleet by blacklisting some 200 oil tankers used to circumvent curbs on Moscow's oil exports. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said today it was essential to secure a ceasefire 'as soon as possible'. 'While the war continues to take lives, it is of critical importance that the ceasefire be implemented as soon as possible,' he said at the opening of the talks at Istanbul's Dolmabahce Palace. 'It is also very important that these talks form the basis of a leaders' meeting. We wholeheartedly believe it is possible to reach peace through constructive negotiations,' he added. Ukrainian and Russian delegations have begun negotiating, Ukraine's foreign ministry spokesperson said today. A photograph released by the foreign ministry showed the Russian and Ukrainian delegations sat opposite each other at a U-shaped table, with Turkish representatives at the head of the table. Jonathan Powell, the UK national security adviser, is in Istanbul for talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations, alongside Ukraine's Minister of Defence, Rustem Umerov. He is joined by several key figures: Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine; Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine's Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs; and General Keith Kellogg, serving as Donald Trump's Special Representative. Also present are Gunter Sautter, the German Chancellor's Foreign and Security Policy Adviser, and Emmanuel Bonne, Diplomatic Adviser to the French President. Donald Trump would like to meet Vladimir Putin 'as soon as we can set it up', the US president said. 'As soon as we can set it up I would actually leave here and go,' Mr Trump said in Abu Dhabi in response to a question about meeting the Russian leader. Referring to peace talks set to take place in Istanbul today, Mr Trump added: 'Let's see what happens with Russia and Ukraine.' Credit: Reuters Russian officials have arrived at the office of Turkish President Dolmabahce in Istanbul, according to reports. The talks are expected to begin after a welcoming speech by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Mark Rutte, the secretary general of Nato, criticised Putin for making a 'big mistake' by sending a lower-level delegation to Istanbul today. Expectations for the negotiations - originally proposed by Putin - dropped significantly after he rejected Zelensky's invitation to meet face-to-face in Turkey. 'He knows extremely well that the ball is in his court, that he is in trouble, that he made a big mistake by sending this low-level delegation,' Mr Rutte told reporters. 'I think all the pressure is now on Putin,' he added. 'The ball is clearly in his part of the field now, in his court... He has to play ball. He has to be serious about wanting peace.' Ukraine will prioritise securing a ceasefire during talks with a Russian delegation in Istanbul today, according to a Ukrainian diplomatic source. The source added that Ukrainian negotiators plan to propose the possibility of a direct meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. 'We understand that for any diplomacy to be resultative, there needs to be a ceasefire. Real, durable and well-monitored,' the source said. 'There also needs to be humanitarian confidence-building measures, such as the return of Ukrainian children, detained civilians, (and the) exchange of prisoners of war on the all-for-all basis.' Marco Rubio met with members of the Ukrainian delegation at the Presidential Office earlier today ahead of the renewed peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Kyiv has cast doubt on whether the Russian negotiators in Istanbul have the authority to make meaningful decisions. 'Putin sent to Istanbul those who have no fundamental decision-making power,' a senior Ukrainian source said. They added that 'if the Russian delegation does have any authority, they can only prove it by agreeing to real steps, in particular a ceasefire'. EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas said today that Russia was 'clearly' not working for peace with Ukraine, as the two sides prepared to hold their first direct talks since 2022. 'We clearly see that Russia does not want peace and everybody else does,' Kallas told reporters at a meeting of European leaders in Tirana. 'The political isolation is important to put the pressure on Russia, and there we all have to be united.' Credit: Reuters Ukraine's delegation at the talks today is comprised of a mix of high-profile officials. It includes: Rustem Umerov, Ukraine's defence minister since September 2023, who has played a key role in Kyiv's efforts to rally international support for the return of Crimea. Andriy Yermak, Ukraine's presidential chief of staff, who is widely seen as the second most influential figure in the country after President Zelensky. He is responsible for overseeing foreign policy, coordinating intelligence efforts, and leading high-level diplomacy, including peace negotiations and prisoner exchanges. Vasyl Malyuk, who has served as Ukraine's top intelligence official since February 2023, leading the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). Andriy Sybiha, who was appointed Ukraine's foreign minister in September 2024, following a long career in diplomacy and presidential strategy. He is regarded as a trusted Zelensky loyalist, having previously served as deputy head of the president's office. Andriy Hnatov, who was appointed Chief of the General Staff in March 2025, following a promotion linked to President Zelensky's ongoing military reform efforts. Several vehicles have arrived at the venue of talks in Istanbul involving delegations from Russia, Ukraine, the United States and Turkey. Amongst them were an armoured vehicle, an ambulance, two white minibuses and several black cars arriving at the venue on the grounds of Dolmabahce Palace on Istanbul's Bosphorus Strait. The delegations, which will not include Putin, consist of a low-profile group of Russian representatives. They include: Vladimir Medinsky, an ultra-conservative former culture minister and current aide to President Putin. Igor Kostyukov, head of the GRU, Russia's military intelligence agency known for orchestrating some of Moscow's most high-profile covert operations in recent years. Colonel General Alexander Vasilyevich Fomin, a veteran Russian military officer and diplomat. He, like Medinsky, was a member of the Russian delegation during the 2022 peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. Mikhail Galuzin, who was long seen as a moderate voice within Russian foreign policy circles. However, since his return to Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine and his appointment as deputy foreign minister in late 2022, he now oversees relations with post-Soviet states, including Ukraine. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, has arrived in Istanbul ahead of the upcoming Russia-Ukraine talks. Earlier, Mr Rubio stressed his low expectations for any significant breakthroughs after Vladimir Putin declined to attend. During his visit, Mr Rubio is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian representatives, while his aide, Michael Anton, will engage with members of the lower-level Russian delegation. Vladimir Putin has dismissed General Oleg Salyukov as Commander-in-Chief of Russia's Ground Forces, a role he held since 2014. Salyukov, who was nearing mandatory retirement, has been reassigned as deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council. A prominent figure in the military, he had overseen Moscow's Victory Day parades for over a decade and, since 2023, served as deputy to Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, overseeing operations in Ukraine. The Security Council, chaired by Putin and led by former defence minister Sergei Shoigu, is an advisory body with no direct military control. No successor has been named yet. The reshuffle comes amid ongoing challenges in Ukraine and efforts to modernise and restructure Russia's armed forces. Russia launched a significant drone assault overnight, deploying over 100 Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeting various regions. Ukrainian air defence systems successfully intercepted the majority of the drones. The attacks resulted in at least four deaths and approximately 30 injuries across the affected regions. In Kyiv, falling drone debris led to fires in the Sviatoshynskyi district, although no fatalities were reported. Ukrainian authorities are assessing the full extent of the damage and casualties. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is preparing to attend a European Political Community (EPC) meeting today. The EPC, which brings together the members of the European Union and 20 other countries, was established in 2022 on the initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Mr Starmer and Mr Macron will be joined by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Nato chief Mark Rutte and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission. The agenda is expected to focus on European security, energy cooperation, and shared responses to ongoing challenges posed by Russian aggression and global instability. Keir Starmer has said Vladimir Putin 'must pay the price for avoiding peace' ahead of a European Political Community (EPC) meeting in Albania on Friday. 'Putin's tactics to dither and delay, while continuing to kill and cause bloodshed across Ukraine, (are) intolerable,' he said in a statement ahead of the summit. According to Downing Street, participants in the EPC meeting will be 'piling the pressure on the Kremlin... after Putin dodged US arranged peace talks in Istanbul yesterday'. 'A full, unconditional ceasefire must be agreed and if Russia is unwilling to come to the negotiating table, Putin must pay the price,' Sir Keir said. The Ukraine-Russia peace talks will take place in 'different formats', a foreign ministry source said on Thursday evening. Turkish officials indicated that 'trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and Turkey are on the agenda' in Istanbul, and possibly a round of US, Ukrainian and Turkish talks. 'It has not been finalised whether there will be a quadrilateral format,' the source added. While the talks are the first direct negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials in three years, a peace breakthrough is unlikely. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Thursday said Washington 'didn't have high expectations' for the talks. The meeting between Ukrainian and Russian officials is poised to begin around 10am local time in Istanbul today (7am GMT), according to the head of Russia's delegation. 'We are ready to work,' Russian presidential adviser Dmitry Medinsky said in a video on Telegram. Mr Medinsky added his delegation held 'productive' talks on Thursday evening with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Peace talks are set to take place between Russian and Ukrainian officials today. We will be bringing you the latest on the meeting in Istanbul, where trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and Turkey are on the agenda. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. 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