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Telegraph
19-02-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Britain has the worst government at the most dangerous possible time
This is a critical moment that calls for heroic leadership, and yet we are saddled with a Cabinet of hypocrites, phoneys and cowards. Donald Trump is pulling the plug on Ukraine, and seemingly attempting to oust Volodymyr Zelensky (who he has wrongly dubbed a 'dictator'), but Britain has nothing useful to contribute other than fake outrage, sentimental chest-beating and pledges it cannot afford. Trump appears to be conceding far too much to Russia, and yet we can't do anything about it. Labour's sanctimoniousness cannot hide its complicity in Ukraine's betrayal: our political class is no better than the rest of Europe's freeloading political elites. If Keir Starmer really cared about the security of the West, and the fate of Kyiv, he would tear up his entire agenda. He would announce a rearmament programme à la 1934, and the reconstruction of a homegrown military industrial supply chain. He would go for growth, ditch Rachel Reeves and Ed Miliband's Leftist idiocy, suspend net zero to cut energy costs, slash taxes and deregulate. He would drastically increase the size of the Armed Forces, transform procurement, and embrace AI and modern warfare technology. He would reverse his splurge on the welfare state to pay for vastly more military personnel. He would fix our nuclear deterrent. With US foreign policy now centred around the promotion of free speech, he would cancel Britain's most illiberal laws and reposition himself as America's comrade-in-arms. He would stop sucking up to China, and prepare for trade dislocation. All of this would allow him to travel to Washington holding his head high, reminding the president that of course Ukraine didn't start the war, conceding that Trump is right to demand a greater military contribution from European countries and offering grown-up, realistic solutions. Alas, the Prime Minister is the wrong man at the wrong time. Starmer is temperamentally and ideologically unfit to stand up for the free world and to lead a historic rearmament of Britain, his judgment impaired by his background as a radical Left-wing human rights lawyer, his instincts invariably wrong or stuck in the 1990s, his understanding of history, economics, geopolitics and the American psyche lamentable. No true war-time prime minister would humiliate our long-suffering Armed Forces by doubling down on the persecution of soldiers in Northern Ireland, or focus obsessively on handing the Chagos, host to key military bases, to an ally of China, citing ludicrous 'international law' considerations and picking the wrong side in the new struggle of the Great Powers. No real war-time leader would choose to prioritise spending more on welfare and his public sector client groups while refusing to allocate more to defence, as if the non-existent peace dividend still existed. No statesman would glibly propose sending peacekeeping troops or typhoons to Ukraine at a time when the British Army is smaller, per capita, than it has been for 300 years, when our military is catastrophically bereft of ships, of planes, of munitions, of drones, tech and money, when generals fear that we could barely cope with the shortest of conflicts. The 'liberal international order' died for good under Barack Obama, when Bashar al-Assad unleashed his chemical weapons in 2013, Putin invaded the Donbas in 2014 and America signed the Iran deal. The US was no longer in charge and no longer cared. Why did Britain, when all of this was happening even under the Democrats, continue to run down its Armed Forces? The old order had certainly long since expired by 2022, when Putin launched his despicable full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and when Hamas attacked Israel in 2023, under Biden. Trump is merely confirming what anybody with half a brain should have understood. America was briefly the world's hegemon after winning the Cold War, but 9/11 and the Iraq and Afghanistan fiascos, combined with the vertiginous rise of China, put paid to it. We are back to spheres of influences, to Great Powers carving up the world: Trump appears to be a fan of the latter incarnation of the Monroe Doctrine. Tragically, the Atlantic Charter, which committed the UK and US to the principle of self-determination, is forgotten. Just as regrettably, imperialism appears to have returned, as practised by Trump with Denmark and Greenland, Canada and Panama, as well as by China with its belt and road initiative. Trump seems keen on a reprise of Yalta or Potsdam: Ukraine's fate, like that of Eastern Europe after 1945, will be decided by others. America is back to old habits in other ways: it didn't intervene in the First World War until 1917, and it took Pearl Harbor for it to enter the Second World War in 1941. With or without Trump, we shouldn't expect it to step into every war in Europe or every conflict in the world any longer. It's our own fault: Britain and Europe should have volunteered to spend a lot more on defence years ago. Nato, which worryingly now feels on its last legs, was never meant to be a way for Europe to sponge off America. Even Trump's attempt at extracting hundreds of billions of dollars worth of raw materials from Ukraine in compensation for US help isn't entirely novel, though it is certainly astonishingly blatant. The US has frequently asked for something in return for its assistance, in a transactional way: decolonisation, money, the dollar's hegemony, access to raw materials. The First and Second Gulf Wars were triggered by America's perceived self-interest: Kuwait produces oil, and 9/11 had to be avenged. America is pivoting to the Pacific: it wants to avoid at all cost Chinese hegemony in the region. It sees Russia as a lesser issue – despite its close alliance with China – that Europe should deal with itself. Labour's foot-dragging about increasing military spending from 2.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent is thus morally idiotic. Poland, a country that is on the front line, intends to spend 4.7 per cent of GDP on defence this year, at the cost of a large deficit. It boasts 200,000 plus soldiers, more than any Nato country other than the US and Turkey. That's a real commitment. If Poland can do it, why can't we? Or are ministers not telling the truth when they claim to care about Ukraine? We are truly stuck with the worst possible Labour Government at the most dangerous of times.
Trade Arabia
30-01-2025
- Business
- Trade Arabia
GCC non-hydrocarbon trade set for 3.5pc growth, says report
Global trade patterns are transforming significantly as new economic corridors emerge and traditional relationships evolve with the GCC region playing an increasingly pivotal role in connecting major trade routes between East and West, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The GCC's strategic location and expanding infrastructure position the region to capture value from these evolving trade dynamics, stated the report. As per the new research from BCG, world trade in goods is projected to grow at an average of 2.9% annually through 2033, with the GCC region playing a vital role in this. As global trade patterns shift, the GCC strengthens its position as a critical connector between East and West. This is evidenced by the broader transformation in global trade flows, where China's trade with the Global South is set to increase by $1.25T and trade between developing nations is projected to grow by $673 billion through 2033. These insights are among the key findings of BCG's latest report, "Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade," which analyzes trade and economic data from more than 150 countries. The report comprehensively analyzes how shifting global trade dynamics will impact regional and international commerce through 2033. The report also reveals a robust outlook for GCC trade, with total trade volume set to reach $2.3 trillion by 2033. This growth is supported by significant expansion across multiple trade corridors, with China emerging as the largest growth market at $88 billion (5.7% CAGR), followed by Japan at $46 billion (9.4% CAGR). The analysis shows GCC's non-hydrocarbon trade will grow by 3.5% annually, highlighting the region's successful economic diversification efforts. Rami Rafih, Managing Director and Partner at BCG, said: "The reconfiguration of global trade flows presents a pivotal moment for the GCC. As trade routes transform, the region isn't just a geographic intermediary but a central orchestrator of new patterns."
Biz Bahrain
30-01-2025
- Business
- Biz Bahrain
GCC trade set to grow 5.5% annually through 2033, with total trade volume reaching $2.3trln, BCG report finds
Global trade patterns are transforming significantly as new economic corridors emerge and traditional relationships evolve. According to new research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG), world trade in goods is projected to grow at an average of 2.9% annually through 2033, with the GCC region playing an increasingly pivotal role in connecting major trade routes between East and West. These insights are among the key findings of BCG's latest report, 'Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade,' which analyzes trade and economic data from more than 150 countries. The report comprehensively analyzes how shifting global trade dynamics will impact regional and international commerce through 2033. Strong Trade Growth Across Key GCC Corridors The BCG report reveals a robust outlook for GCC trade, with total trade volume set to reach 2.3T USD by 2033. This growth is supported by significant expansion across multiple trade corridors, with China emerging as the largest growth market at 88B USD (5.7% CAGR), followed by Japan at 46B USD (9.4% CAGR). The analysis shows GCC's non-hydrocarbon trade will grow by 3.5% annually, highlighting the region's successful economic diversification efforts. As global trade patterns shift, the GCC strengthens its position as a critical connector between East and West. This is evidenced by the broader transformation in global trade flows, where China's trade with the Global South is set to increase by $1.25T and trade between developing nations is projected to grow by $673B through 2033. The GCC's strategic location and expanding infrastructure position the region to capture value from these evolving trade dynamics. Rami Rafih, Managing Director and Partner at BCG, said: 'The reconfiguration of global trade flows presents a pivotal moment for the GCC. As trade routes transform, the region isn't just a geographic intermediary but a central orchestrator of new patterns. The GCC's deliberate investment in capabilities positions it to achieve greater success through developing proactive and risk-based options rather than defaulting to reactionary responses. The key is leveraging this foundation to shape emerging trade corridors, particularly as Global South commerce evolves.' Global Trade Shifts Create New Opportunities The report identifies major transformations across key trading regions that will reshape global commerce. While North America solidifies as a resilient trade bloc with US-Mexico trade increasing by $315B by 2033, ASEAN emerges as a significant beneficiary of global shifts with 3.7% annual trade growth. India's trajectory is particularly notable, with total trade expected to reach $1.8T annually by 2033, driven by its increasing role as a global manufacturing hub. The growing power of the Global South represents one of the most significant developments in global trade. Representing 18% of global GDP and 62% of the world's population, these 133 developing nations are set to expand their trade significantly. Annual trade among Global South nations will grow by $673B over the next decade, while trade between the Global South and developed economies is projected to reach $1.67T annually by 2033. To navigate these shifting trade dynamics and capitalize on emerging opportunities, BCG's report outlines several key imperatives for business leaders in the region: Key Recommendations for Business Leaders Develop resilient and transparent supply chains by diversifying sourcing strategies and deepening relationships with key suppliers across emerging trade corridors Build geopolitical capabilities to better anticipate and respond to changing trade dynamics, particularly in rapidly evolving markets across Asia and Africa Expand presence in growth markets, focusing on opportunities in India, China, and other emerging economies where GCC trade is projected to grow significantly Embrace smart nearshoring strategies that leverage the GCC's strategic position between East and West trade routes Invest in regional differentiation as global trade fragments, adapting operations and technology to serve diverse market requirements Cristian Rodriguez-Chiffelle, Partner and Director, Trade, Investment & Geopolitics at BCG, said: 'For business leaders, navigating today's complex trade landscape requires more than agile supply chains – it demands an insights-driven approach to geopolitical shifts. Success will come to those who cultivate deep market intelligence, develop robust scenario planning, and build a portfolio of strategic options, thus building a 'geopolitical muscle.' While diversification improves resilience, the real opportunity lies in shaping new trading partnerships that bridge geopolitical divides, and extracts not only challenges but also opportunities arising from geopolitical events.'
Khaleej Times
29-01-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
GCC trade set to grow 5.5% annually through 2033
Trade in the GCC countries likely to at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5 per cent to reach $2.3 trillion by 2033, research showed on Wednesday. According to new research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG), world trade in goods is projected to grow at an average of 2.9 per cent annually through 2033, with the GCC region playing an increasingly pivotal role in connecting major trade routes between East and West. BCG's latest report, 'Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade', analyses trade and economic data from more than 150 countries. The report reveals how shifting global trade dynamics will impact regional and international commerce through 2033. GCC trade growth is supported by significant expansion across multiple trade corridors, with China emerging as the largest growth market at $88 billion (5.7 per cent CAGR), followed by Japan at $46 billion (9.4 per cent CAGR). The analysis shows GCC's non-hydrocarbon trade will grow by 3.5 per cent annually, highlighting the region's successful economic diversification efforts. As global trade patterns shift, the GCC is strengthening its position as a critical connector between East and West. This is evidenced by the broader transformation in global trade flows, where China's trade with the Global South is set to increase by $1.25 trillion and trade between developing nations is projected to grow by $673 billion through 2033. The GCC's strategic location and expanding infrastructure position the region to capture value from these evolving trade dynamics, BCG noted. Rami Rafih, managing director and partner at BCG, said: 'The reconfiguration of global trade flows presents a pivotal moment for the GCC. As trade routes transform, the GCC's deliberate investment in capabilities positions it to achieve greater success through developing proactive and risk-based options rather than defaulting to reactionary responses. The key is leveraging this foundation to shape emerging trade corridors, particularly as Global South commerce evolves.' The report identifies major transformations across key trading regions that will reshape global commerce. While North America solidifies as a resilient trade bloc with US-Mexico trade increasing by $315B by 2033, ASEAN emerges as a significant beneficiary of global shifts with 3.7 per cent annual trade growth. India's trajectory is particularly notable, with total trade expected to reach $1.8T annually by 2033, driven by its increasing role as a global manufacturing hub. The growing power of the Global South represents one of the most significant developments in global trade. Representing 18 per cent of global GDP and 62 per cent of the world's population, these 133 developing nations are set to expand their trade significantly. Annual trade among Global South nations will grow by $673 billion over the next decade, while trade between the Global South and developed economies is projected to reach $1.67 trillion annually by 2033. Cristian Rodriguez-Chiffelle, Partner and Director, Trade, Investment & Geopolitics at BCG, said: 'For business leaders, navigating today's complex trade landscape requires more than agile supply chains — it demands an insights-driven approach to geopolitical shifts. Success will come to those who cultivate deep market intelligence, develop robust scenario planning, and build a portfolio of strategic options, thus building a 'geopolitical muscle.' While diversification improves resilience, the real opportunity lies in shaping new trading partnerships that bridge geopolitical divides, and extracts not only challenges but also opportunities arising from geopolitical events.'
Zawya
29-01-2025
- Business
- Zawya
GCC trade set to grow 5.5% annually through 2033, with total trade volume reaching $2.3trln, BCG report finds
GCC set to strengthen its position as a global trade hub, with significant growth across key trading corridors Global South gains momentum with China increasing trade by $1.25T and trade between developing nations growing by $673B, as GCC positions itself as a critical connector between East and West trading corridors Riyadh: Global trade patterns are transforming significantly as new economic corridors emerge and traditional relationships evolve. According to new research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG), world trade in goods is projected to grow at an average of 2.9% annually through 2033, with the GCC region playing an increasingly pivotal role in connecting major trade routes between East and West. These insights are among the key findings of BCG's latest report, "Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade," which analyzes trade and economic data from more than 150 countries. The report comprehensively analyzes how shifting global trade dynamics will impact regional and international commerce through 2033. Strong Trade Growth Across Key GCC Corridors The BCG report reveals a robust outlook for GCC trade, with total trade volume set to reach 2.3T USD by 2033. This growth is supported by significant expansion across multiple trade corridors, with China emerging as the largest growth market at 88B USD (5.7% CAGR), followed by Japan at 46B USD (9.4% CAGR). The analysis shows GCC's non-hydrocarbon trade will grow by 3.5% annually, highlighting the region's successful economic diversification efforts. As global trade patterns shift, the GCC strengthens its position as a critical connector between East and West. This is evidenced by the broader transformation in global trade flows, where China's trade with the Global South is set to increase by $1.25T and trade between developing nations is projected to grow by $673B through 2033. The GCC's strategic location and expanding infrastructure position the region to capture value from these evolving trade dynamics. Rami Rafih, Managing Director and Partner at BCG, said: "The reconfiguration of global trade flows presents a pivotal moment for the GCC. As trade routes transform, the region isn't just a geographic intermediary but a central orchestrator of new patterns. The GCC's deliberate investment in capabilities positions it to achieve greater success through developing proactive and risk-based options rather than defaulting to reactionary responses. The key is leveraging this foundation to shape emerging trade corridors, particularly as Global South commerce evolves." Global Trade Shifts Create New Opportunities The report identifies major transformations across key trading regions that will reshape global commerce. While North America solidifies as a resilient trade bloc with US-Mexico trade increasing by $315B by 2033, ASEAN emerges as a significant beneficiary of global shifts with 3.7% annual trade growth. India's trajectory is particularly notable, with total trade expected to reach $1.8T annually by 2033, driven by its increasing role as a global manufacturing hub. The growing power of the Global South represents one of the most significant developments in global trade. Representing 18% of global GDP and 62% of the world's population, these 133 developing nations are set to expand their trade significantly. Annual trade among Global South nations will grow by $673B over the next decade, while trade between the Global South and developed economies is projected to reach $1.67T annually by 2033. To navigate these shifting trade dynamics and capitalize on emerging opportunities, BCG's report outlines several key imperatives for business leaders in the region: Key Recommendations for Business Leaders Develop resilient and transparent supply chains by diversifying sourcing strategies and deepening relationships with key suppliers across emerging trade corridors Build geopolitical capabilities to better anticipate and respond to changing trade dynamics, particularly in rapidly evolving markets across Asia and Africa Expand presence in growth markets, focusing on opportunities in India, China, and other emerging economies where GCC trade is projected to grow significantly Embrace smart nearshoring strategies that leverage the GCC's strategic position between East and West trade routes Invest in regional differentiation as global trade fragments, adapting operations and technology to serve diverse market requirements Cristian Rodriguez-Chiffelle, Partner and Director, Trade, Investment & Geopolitics at BCG, said: "For business leaders, navigating today's complex trade landscape requires more than agile supply chains - it demands an insights-driven approach to geopolitical shifts. Success will come to those who cultivate deep market intelligence, develop robust scenario planning, and build a portfolio of strategic options, thus building a 'geopolitical muscle.' While diversification improves resilience, the real opportunity lies in shaping new trading partnerships that bridge geopolitical divides, and extracts not only challenges but also opportunities arising from geopolitical events." The full report "Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade" is available at About Boston Consulting Group Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963. Today, we help clients with total transformation—inspiring complex change, enabling organizations to grow, building competitive advantage, and driving bottom-line impact. To succeed, organizations must blend digital and human capabilities. Our diverse, global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives to spark change. BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting along with technology and design, corporate and digital ventures—and business purpose. We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization, generating results that allow our clients to thrive.
